Manchester terror attack | FTSE rise and dip today | Bear Tuesday | Trading help

23rd May 2017

The UK is waking up to news of the worst terrorist attack in the UK since 2005 after a suicide bombing at Manchester Arena during a music concert. Nineteen dead so far with many more injured. Initially the pound weakened on the news, however the FTSE 100 futures prices have remained at the 7500 level.

In EU news, and what dragged the Dax down yesterday, Eurozone finance ministers failed to agree on a deal which would have released vital funds for Athens on Monday night, after Greece’s creditors rejected calls for an upfront commitment to reduce the country’s debt burden.

The FTSE was fairly flat yesterday, with just a 20 point range. The S&P long from 2381 did much better with a nice rise over the course of the day. There wasn’t too much bull Monday about the FTSE 100 though, with low volume going through. May’s U turn on old age social care costs didn’t really have much effect either, now saying that the costs will be capped, following a poor reception to their proposal and a slip in the polls.

FTSE 100 Outlook and Prediction

Daily FTSE 100 Trend Channels
Daily FTSE 100 Trend Channels

If the pivot area and overnight low holds initially at 7498 then I am thinking that we will get a rise towards 7535. Usually after there has been any sort of terrorist attack the stock market in that country rises – partly to show that the terrorist don’t spook us. However, with bull Monday being decidedly weak yesterday then its possible that we break lower today, and bear Tuesday kicks in instead. There is support on the 2 hour chart at the 7487 level with both a green coral trend line here, and also a key Hull moving average. If the bulls hold this support level then a rise to 7535 looks likely.

At 7535 we have 2 key resistance levels, namely R2 and also a daily resistance area. As such a short here is worth a go in case we do get a bearish day. The daily Raff channel trends are both firmly up at the moment, so the general “safer’ play is to buy the dips, however, we have risen quite far quite fast on not a lot really, as it was only 4 weeks ago we were at 7100.

There are still a fair few short on IG (85%) so it might want to stop a few more of them out first. Gold is also now hitting the top of the 20 day Raff channel at 1263 (also recent high) so may see a bit of a dip again – which might boost indices. GBP/USD (cable) has dipped back below 13000 again, after the attack in Manchester, which may give the FTSE a boost also. I still think shorting the rallies for the moment is a a decent play, however, the bears seem quite weak off the resistance levels at the moment – hence thinking it just needs to squeeze a bit more.

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71 Comments

  3. Icarus and Si,you can see what is happenning what are you playing at…..come on wake up please,we are supposed to help each other on here,,,have a rethink guys…

    1. Look cable is dropping ,the Dow is about 200 off its highs ,the Dax is down at least 150

          2. I’m doing good in other areas this year, but the FTSE just makes absolutely zero sense to me! I always get it wrong! I think BTFD was invented for it.

          3. Hi Si,I just don’t want to see you guys screwed over again……it makes rational sense to short Ftse but unfortunately it’s out of touch with reality,it’s so inflated really we just have to play the game…..good luck Si…

  5. Thanks anstel, I see your point. But I am not hoping, the drop is just around the corner.its just that gap which is creating an illusion. We have been in a bear market since March. Strictly speaking we are in the right shoulder of the h&s pattern.

    1. I fail to see how we are in a bear market Icarus…it seems to be on an upward march to me…..but I’m not a technical trader really,other than the basic things…we will just have to see what happens,best of luck though..

  6. Simple question. Why has the price stalled here and why are we having low volume rallies in a tight range, with a bearish tilt! Don’t get me started on the ABC corrective pattern 🙂

    1. It’s going up because it’s monetary policy…..not for any other reason,it’s a stack of cards and it will only fall when it’s supposed too….

        1. Agree it is rigged. I have waited 7 years for this bear market to develop. Don’t you think thr bankers want to start cashing in now?

  7. Anybody bought any crypto currency? Just bought my first bitcoin – here’s to $100,000 per coin!

  8. It just feels like the Algos are playing with thr charts and waiting for yhe last minute to trigger a sell. Or what we are seeing is a lot of selling happening behind the scenes. It’s just a case of the selling pressure to increase l, which has been lately

  9. Think about the millions of individuals who have their pensions and savings invested in the stock markets and are used to the monetary policy conditioning for 7 years. Do you think those people will think this will fall. No sir. Us humans expect things to move in a straight line always, but it doesnt.

  10. All the A level stocks are at ridiculous levels and you expect people to buy more and never cash in l?

  11. The rapid rise we saw from 7100 to 7500 was not normal, that’s just shorts loading up!

  13. The way I see it Icarus is this,everybody is working away and paying their Tax and NIC,that’s happening in America and Europe China everywhere,,,,then we all get bombarded with advertising,buy this new car,new tv,phone,whatever new piece of crap that’s the latest model,so people borrow pretend money but that keeps them working away,,,,plus they pay the interest payments,the vat,the car tax,the list goes on…..when the market does collapse it’s going to stop that cycle because the pretend wealth will vanish,so ask yourself,when and why would they want to kill the goose that lays the golden egg?its going to crash for sure but I think we need to wait for some good signs first……

        1. I bought two big boxes of teabags 240s plus 50% at Iceland for £3 each …..happy as a pig in :0):0):0):0)

      2. If I was a banker that’s exactly what I would be thinking! 🙂
        Let everyone else have a mug of tea while I mug them without them even realising.

        1. Hey I’m not saying you and Si are wrong, I’m just saying that there’s no point in holding shorts going against you when you could be taking blue on the longs……..it’s not broken, till it’s broken….

  14. Guys if we don’t see any action today I think we are done for the week. Same grind will continue until Tuesday next week.

        2. Oh no wait – is that environmental health I see on account of there being too much HOT AIR?

          1. Be alright once we get the new air conditioning working,,,,,and a few extra fans it will be business as usual…BTFD…..:0)

          5. I might have to defect back to the bear camp if it doesn’t buck its ideas up …..if that doesn’t make it go up nothing will :0)

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