Support 5872 5870 5863 5854 5751 5747
Resistance 5906 5920 6006 6055
Good morning.
Market Summary for Friday 5th February
The FT100 traded around the 5900 level during Friday morning waiting for US job data at 1:30pm UK time.
The market then moved sharply lower after the January U.S. jobs report appeared to keep alive the prospect of a Fed rate hike this year.
Non farm payrolls increased by 151,000 jobs last month, below the 190,000 expected by economists. Despite the expected slowdown in job growth, the unemployment rate fell to 4.9 percent, the lowest since February 2008, and average hourly earnings increased 0.5 percent, suggesting the labor market recovery remains firm. The FT100 closed at 5848 with little buying into the close. The commodity sector was again strong with interest rate sensitive sectors weaker.
US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
The dollar rose for a second day against the euro and yen as investors looked toward Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen’s testimony to Congress Wednesday for signs of whether markets are underestimating the odds of a near-term interest-rate increase.
The greenback climbed after a U.S. employment report on Friday showed wage growth exceeded estimates, bolstering the case for the Fed to lift rates this year. Futures pricing for a move before year-end climbed to 53 percent Friday from 46 percent the previous day. The yen weakened versus Australia’s dollar as equities in Japan pared declines and the nation reported a current-account surplus that was smaller than economists had forecast.
“Markets are looking to Yellen’s testimony this week to see whether she will still leave an option open for a March rate increase or sound dovish,” said Ayako Sera, a Tokyo-based market strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank Ltd. “The dollar can easily swing one yen up and down from 117, but, after the payrolls data, 117 seems to have become a magnet.”
The dollar rose 0.3 percent to 117.20 yen as of 1 p.m. in Tokyo, following a 3.5 percent slide last week that was the most since 2009. It advanced 0.2 percent to $1.1145 per euro, after rallying Friday from a three-month low. The yen slid 0.1 percent to 130.61 per euro and fell 0.5 percent to 82.99 per Aussie dollar.
Markets closed Monday for the Lunar New Year holidays include those in China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Singapore and South Korea.
Payrolls, Wages
U.S. employers added 151,000 to payrolls in January and the unemployment rate dropped to an almost eight-year low of 4.9 percent, a report showed last week. Hourly earnings rose more than estimated after climbing in the year to December by the most since July 2009.
“Stronger than expected U.S. wage growth has called into question last week’s accepted wisdom that the U.S. dollar would fall as moderating economic growth pressured the Fed to delay its rate hike program,” Ric Spooner, a chief analyst at CMC Markets in Sydney, wrote in an e-mailed report.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.1 percent to 1,229.37 after climbing 0.6 percent on Friday, its biggest advance this year. It was still down 0.3 percent since Dec. 31. Japan’s Topix index of shares was 0.1 percent lower after paring an earlier decline of 1.7 percent.
Japan posted an 18th consecutive current-account surplus in December. The excess in the widest measure of the nation’s trade was 960.7 billion yen ($8.2 billion), from 225.9 billion yen a year earlier, the Finance Ministry said Monday. The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey was for a surplus of 1.05 trillion yen. [Bloomberg]
FTSE100 Outlook and Prediction
Todays pivot is 5870 and the 2 hour chart is showing some support at the 5860 area. With China celebrating their New Year and their markets shut the FTSE100 has drifted upwards overnight, and I expect that we will have a bullish day today with a rise towards 5940. If we get a dip back to the pivot and also the 25ema on the 30min chart at 5870 area then I think a long here could well be a decent play. The 2 hour chart is also brewing a bullish cross with the 20Hull crossing above the 100Hull, and this is showing support at 5855 currently, if that cross takes place. So, a rise to 5940 looks possible today though at that point there is some strong resistance which may well stops the bulls for the moment. I imagine they are desperate to exceed 6000 again before too long. We had some more bearish press over the weekend (here) so another little rise first before any major sell offs would fit in. So, for today support around the 5870 area for a rise to 5940.
Long at 38.8
Well that went bearish quickly!
didnt it just!!!!
I think its down to the bottom of the 10 day Bianca channel first and then bounce…
Where is the bottom of the Bianca channel please Havies if you have a moment ?thanks.
Morning all,
So I think Nick has it right for today, but I think we may dip a bit lower to visit the lows of last week.
I will be buying the dips until we get that low.
If this breaks, then I will change full on bear.
Long Dax 9240. Stop 9199 target 9500 +
That didn’t last long
Morning all,Germany seems to have changed the tone a bit.Kind of suspect the U.S might want to go up later though.
Pulled out of my long 9260 with 3 points at 8.37.
I think longs are not great.
Long at 15, stop 800
Wow, its turning teally bearish now
Apparently some ceo of oil company has said he can’t see commodity prices recovering quickly.
Might be a very good time to go long. Cheap as chips if it rebounds back which it will during the day
Yup, another go at the longs…
Hello chaps, just a flying visit.
I’ve been losing concentration recently which is bad in these hairy markets, so I’m going into isolation for a while to hopefully sort that out.
All the best, keep your stops tight and your fingers intact 🙂
Hi tmfp,thanks for the good wishes,you too,all the best.
Morning tmfp,hope you get back to feeling on top form again soon….all the best mate.
Short DOW 16,100. Short Brent 33.40.
All crucial levels now…..5750 in Ftse, testing a break of 16000 in dow, 9000 in Dax, $30 in Oil…….I am very bearish and think we will see sub 5600 this month but till this afternoon it all looks oversold. Long Ftse @ 5940 for 10 target 70 stop 5930 & 9080 in Dax for 6 target 9125. Still holding my 50 lots of ftse feb 5500 puts which I bought around 15….currently trading 36! Like I said , Gold is telling us all something. GL GG33
What the heck?
Panic Jack, let’s see how many people follow the advice of be greedy when others are fearful! Might not be many
Can you tell me: greedy are those who short or fearful those who long?
Problem is, everyone harbours thoughts of the Dow dropping 1000 points like it did in August last year and it makes it difficult to buy with conviction. I’ve just been stopped out in Ftse at 5730 for -100 & Dax at 9050 for -180, it’s a tough one to buy even when everything is showing oversold!
I closed my long as well GG for -78
5734 long
an example of absolute oversold
Such drops normally result in some sort of long, but will it this time? And what the heck Nick’s long arrow? Will it work in the end? I reckon many people long. I also have one.
Agree with you Paul that it is oversold but will be surprised if we don’t have a look at 5700 and 9000 first before a proper bounce. Would like to see it break and hold 5950 before going long.
yes you are correct
but hedge funds / pension funds see this sort of a drop to buy
closed at 60 for 26
but will actively look for further longs at break-outs
Nice trading Paul
Paul, still looking at this 5750 level as the neckline of a possible Head & Shoulders forming on the daily…..if broken I have the Ftse down to 5300 quite quickly, i.e my call for sub 5600 by end of Feb.
Hi GG
Patterns work only one way.
A failure is just a failure, but you cannot deduce anything from a failure except just that.
i tend not to look at daily for patterns
i go from 2 hours
Not true. Mass psychological behaviour ensues from patterns which can move markets significantly. Take them with a pinch of salt, sure, but don’t deny what they can suggest.
benjiw
???
not sure what you are saying mate
Good Morning All,
The 1000 point run might actually happen in the south direction I guess 🙂
I’m long 9025 with a 20 point stop, still leaving the stop at 9005. I’m going into a meeting and watching it which is best thing to do either way. Will check around 1.
GL All.
South? Do you mean down? Why long then?
got stopped out on the 3 min 1 PM candle. More watching now.
Gone in on a long again – same price 5734
this time looking for a breakout of 5760 to probably 5780 area
Hi Guys!!
Been away for a while! some good trades going in here. L @ 5740. Gl all
They are good as long as the indices rise lol
well lets see then Argyle 🙂 . you been posting some good strategies here!
we all miss tmpf when he is not here .
Small w shape recovery forming? Needs to break and hold 5955 by 12 imho
Brent still heading south…..
The carnage is over for a while, all depends on the US now. If they want to sell a bit more then 5700 could be on the cards. Otherwise 5800 could be a realistic figure later.
Depends what Brent does, no? If it hangs on to support at 32.70 area I agree. If it doesn’t, I don’t!
Doesn’t go that flipping long.
tmfp
.
know what you are going through
but….https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1tGO1Y4FGpI
.
as a kid ….. I always tried to see the deeper hidden meanings in my favorite band lyrics………. until i saw an interview where they said ….. it was the magic mushroom or words just picked from thin air
.
just chill out……. the market is not going anywhere
it’s just on magic mushroom or prices just picked from thin air
nice bullish engulfing candle on the 10min
Should have done like tmfp and had a few days off. Anyway, long at 5850,5800 and 5750, limit in at 5700, might get hit at that on the Dow open! Looking pretty sick at the moment but we’ll see.
Good lunch chippy, hope you get a nice rally up this afternoon
Thanks mate, I think I may have to be patient with this one though. Went a bit early on Friday with opener at 5850!
Patience is the key. This will be back at 5850 during the week but maybe a few worries along the way.
Is it just my computer or has the format of Nicks Site changed in the last hour?
Yes seems to have. Are you in a trade Anstel?
Dax gone under 9000. Strange day
I shut my long from this morning for -78….. Not a great start to the week.might leave it today.
Looks like Nick’s format
Personally Nick,I found it much easier to use how it was before.just in case you want any feedback?
Ditto!
Ditto. Change it back Nick
Yes, it was better before. I don’t think he knows about this glitch.
Was just some malformed code that was screwing it up, all sorted now. The joys of computers!
What about longs, will it finally go right now or US will spoil everything?
US and Brent rising. I’d say Nick’s arrows now potentially coming to fruition.
I think his arrows hide the fact he was hundreds of points out. If you followed his arrows today, you would have an empty account
Not really, thats why you use stops!
True, that’s why I included the word “now.”
These market conditions are the hardest I think I have seen up to now……I’m finding it extremely difficult to form an opinion of any market direction at all………..!
Long Anstel, long.
To be completely fair to Nick though Argyle,.how on earth can you predict a markets daily movements from first thing in the morning. I havn’t got a clue what it’s going to do in the next 10 mins.it must be very difficult to post a prediction early on sometimes.
I’m short of confidence today Argyle,as much as I don’t mind jumping in I think today I’m going to take a back seat………I don’t like it at all…..yes It does look like a long is a good play……..but after a 500 pt drop on Dow it’s all abit too unstable for my liking ATM.
China is shut this week Argyle.
Indeed Anstel. No sign from Asian markets of any major fall. Probably a good point to go long for the week.
Maybe have a rethink after the Dow opens.
Bouncing off the 10 day Raff from 5710ish
http://tc.md.it-finance.com/ProRealTime_V10_2/display_chartimage.phtml?name=vb7fjdqeo71wrts1htim9ro3t&type=png
closed my long 5734 b/e
Gone short 5734 stop 5744
moved my stop to 5734 b/e
closed 33 and gone long 5734 again
stopped out b/e
short again – 5726
brought stop to 5726 b/e
still holding – will probably regret it – but b/e
5700 round number. If ( IF ) it breaks – we could see a good 30-40 move ( hope )
closed 5716 gone long 5716
stop 5706
will add 5729
Got out of that stupid loss at 9040 with a loss of 100, which is good cos I won 100 in the process so got b/e today. Next time I will not trust Nick’s arrows. And how many times I told myself this. I was holding what supposed to be a short winning trade, but no, we got a long arrow, it can’t be short so I went long.
Now it may go up or down, honestly I don’t care. For the amount of time I was HOLDING sh..te the risk is not worth it. Jeses, forgot stops in the morning for the long 9192.
Gosh, so much things to do.
Conclusion: Firstly: weekend weakens your brain. Secondly: you need to put any SL even if you are taking a punt.
you had a 100 point stop? Blimey
No Nick. I had no stop. I was winning on longs at the bottoms of falls, and got quite a lot, but my first loss was still -160 to -180 or so, so when I closed the whole lot at 9040 I had won enough so that my loss covered it. I think I won 150 and lost 150 (calculated). It’s hard to explain. I should have had stop because it went to -200 at some point.
Don’t take personal about arrows, I know I should have looked at it from my point of view. It’s me again with my lovely SLs. Groundhog day.
Why I thought it was 100? Because I didn’t take into account the last win from 8990 area (it was added into account at the same time when the loss was added so I’ve never seen a higher number of my account at that point)
Yep, they are just there for a guide, not a trading plan. This site, the arrows and the text are my thoughts, not sure why you always trade off them exactly. If you want trade plans you need to join as I have told you a million times. Sometimes the arrows are bang on, sometimes they are not. Its just an opinion, If you agree, trade it, if you don’t agree, don’t trade it. At 6 am we were bullish. Then it changed. Thats the beauty of the markets. You then change your plan.
Most of the time they are spot on and I know that and I appreciate you are trying to help. I may complain emotionally on the spot sometimes so sorry about that, but later understand it was my fault, I made some mistakes today but also wanted to share my experience. It’s my SL problem. Nothing else. And going against my strategy 100%.
I would have joined if I was trading consistently. Plus I don’t trade FTSE only Dax. That’s a problem.
We will get that 5400 this week at this rate!
No not this week Nick, Monday bear followed by mid week bull. 5850 by Thursday
Would be good, just gone long 5713
Hi Nick
i longed as well 5716
stop 06 – no conviction of this working till 5729 crossed
opps and out
DOW is flying down, why all this long chat?!
We all like a counter trend trade 🙂
yep – why indeed
stupid me
changed my charts to 15-5-1 – from my
4-1-15 & 30-15-5
i just do not like that 1 min chart. should never
have changed.
my 15-5-1 – crying out – go long.
while my usual 30-15-5 – is saying – sit tight buddy.
so 15-5-1 – I say R.I.P
That’s probably fair enough this is the Dow Jan Support area,so up and down a bit for a bit before it picks a direction is reasonable.
Counter trading – scary stuff! I thought the trend was your friend, and all that?
That said, DOW bouncing off long-term support at 15,860 right now :O 😀 :O
Exactly! I am not into trend stuff. Usually I stop a trend in its tracks!
Ha! Fair do’s. I’m going to wait until upside settles to join you. Hope you’re right.
Trend.
The seminars / the books / the maestros – follow the trend.
But – the 4 hour trade or the 2 hour or the 30 mins or the 15 mins or the 5 or maybe the 1 min or why not the 30 sec
Benjiw.
Show me a trend. & i will show you an opposite trend.
I think by “trend”, people tend to mean longer term, Paul. Measuring things on a nanoscopic level isn’t indicative of anything. It’s like measuring things in the quantum world.
back to my boring break-out trading
short 5705 stop 5722
moved stop to 705 b/e
probably too early – but closed 5669
5682 long £20 a point. Target 5836 stop 5650
got to give it to you Argyle
you do come out with these fantastic targets
love them – 152 points away
Not looking good at the mo but never give up hope. Had 3 trades over 200 points in the last fortnight, not sure I’m going to make it 4 though. I shall wait. Might be a mad rally in last 10 minutes to set the tone.
looks like its coming for you argyle
Good luck Argyle,you might just pull it off.
With you Argyle, I’m getting close to running out of ammo! Seriously though, I’m surprised it managed to get through 5700 and last time it got to 5600 (or just under) it rallied extremely hard – as anstel will remember with glee! Anyway, am sitting tight and patiently waiting, but have got another limit in at 5650, if we see it.
I reckon I’ll be watching the last 15 minutes of the DOW, they always seem to run it up hard after a lacklustre day!
Is anybody aware of any positive news that could help this recover…..other than it being really well sold?
yep. Argyle has bought it
Just a shake down day. Nothing to get excited about just buy it and wait Anstel
I’m thinking about it?
I think when it does break to the upside it will break hard and anyone who is in should do well.i always found that often the Dow would rally after the Ftse shuts at 4.30…..see what happens…..but there’s loads of upside potential when you think the Dow was at 16450 ish on Friday.
It’s a pretty dead week for scheduled news,just Yellen Wed,Thur.
Thats a crazy decline from Friday on the Dow…… 600 + points. You would think people would buy stocks at these levels compared to Friday?i suppose we may get a surprise rally,that’s always a possibility! /
Hi anstel,You were asking about Bianca earlier,well she is just trend channeling over 10,20 and 50 days,so you can trade within the channels when there is a clear trend i,e works best when all 3 channels basically align.Really simple system that works along with trade and risk management.
http://www.biancatrends.com/
Thanks WSF yes I think it was Havies said earlier he expected it to drop to the bottom of the 10 day bianca channel before bouncing……..I will have a look at it thanks for posting the link. We could just be setting up for one of those surprise rally’s by the look of it……I just want to get a good nights sleep though and have a break really though…….better not press any buttons! Good Luck.
Thanks,have a good evening.
Nice little rise into close sets the tone for tomorrow
argyle
one thing supporting your ideas, is that over 50% of the trades are placed at close or after close in the US or pre-market open
I fail to see why anyone would buy this, I haven’t seen anyone give a decent explanation for why it’s down so much-I hope it does bounce for you but seems like you’re trying to pin the tail on a donkey’s arse with a blindfold on, in the dark!
GG. Watch and learn
GG33
probably better for you to take a couple of whiskies and for gods sake tie the blindfold…lol
GG33, that is pretty much exactly what I’m trying to do. Simply, I don’t particularly watch it so am never going to be able to hit the tops or pick the bottoms so if I graduate what I want to do I should be there or thereabouts. As I said to tmfp the other day, I’m happy (if a bit sweaty!) to wear it a long way down. Let’s face it, it can only go down another 5700 odd points!
benjiw
i don’t mean to contradict anything you are saying about a trend.
but the question is which trend do you trade
I am sure Argyle will be proven correct, with his trend move, eventually.
I am Argyle but please believe when I say, I genuinely hope it goes your way, whats your target?
5850 to 5900 depends at the time
Cool, well done….bigger cahones than me. lol
If you believe in what you are doing then more often than not it comes off. Currently 12 points to the good.
Just added a bit more to make it interesting
Argyle
so how long are you going to keep it for ?
and on what basis was your trade ?
so you are keeping your stop at 5650 ?
Just gone short 5694 with a 10 point stop – which i will move to b/e
just want to make sure I have not missed something and am in the wrong trade !
Well as you’re that bullish and the options expire at the end of next week, just sold my 5500 puts back 50 @ 54.
Very nice, hope that’s not because you listened to me!
sounds like a cat fight is brewing
lol
well insider info gives one an unfair advantage
& sure don’t want to miss a 152 point move
GG – what platform r u using?
mine does not offer vix !
IG & Finspreads Paul, have to be honest, I am naturally bearish by nature but I have to side with Argyle-I think there is a small pull back to see if this 5830 level proves resistance, if it does I’ll be short with you. 152 point move, am I missing something?
yes I was with finspreads then moved to worldspread which went bankcrupt, fortunately i was so bad trading that i lost only a couple of hundread.
I am sure Argyle is correct, but am never sure if he means in the next few hours or days or weeks.
also he never really gives any reasons for his trades
never know whether to take him seriously
that 152 points – his entry long was 5682 target 5850
I went in short – 5694 – simple breakout trade and now b/e stop
its now 5664 – blue ink says – close it
sh*t closed it 5670
now all eyes on Argyle
to be honest – Dow has lost the plot, but got to get a bite to eat