FTSE Trading Strategies | Support 7048, 7034, 6999, 6985, 6961 Resistance 7080, 7094, 7121, 7158

Good morning. Well that was a weird and frustrating day. It looked strong out the blocks which is why I closed the 7039 short for just 10 points, to then see it drop to 7000. Thought the 6990 long order would take only for that to just miss and the finally got 7070 after the bell. Hope you managed to get some of the rise though. All very odd but at least the bulls kept the defence of 7000 in tact and the 25ema on the daily still hasn’t broken – 6999 on that for support today. The Bianca chart is showing resistance at the overnight high area of 7080, and support at 6985. Despite poor housing data in the US the S&P pulled away from the 2090 support area, and breached the 2111 resistance pretty easily in the end.

US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Asian stocks rose, with the regional benchmark index set to post a fourth straight weekly advance. Japanese shares retreated as the yen held gains amid weak U.S. economic data.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index added 0.3 percent to 155.65 as of 9:30 a.m. in Tokyo, poised for a 1.1 percent increase this week and the longest run of weekly advances since February. The index closed Thursday at a seven-year high. Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average slid 0.3 percent after the yen strengthened 0.3 percent against the dollar as rising U.S. jobless claims and weak housing data cast doubt on the nation’s economic outlook. Futures on the Hang Seng Index and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index climbed at least 0.2 percent.

“There are plenty of positives,” said Andrew Clarke, director of trading at Hong Kong brokerage Mirabaud Asia Ltd. “The investors who have missed the rally in some of the markets are still coming in. But we have also come to a point in some markets where it’s time to take a bit of profit.”

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index added 1.1 percent and New Zealand’s NZX 50 Index climbed 0.1 percent. South Korea’s Kospi index rose 0.7 percent.

Markets in China and Hong Kong are yet to open. China’s securities regulator is increasing the pace of initial public offerings, allowing more companies to take advantage of a world-beating rally that’s sent the Shanghai Composite Index to a seven-year high. The China Securities Regulatory Commission will review and approve two batches of IPO applications each month, up from one previously. Twenty-five IPOs were approved on Thursday, the CSRC said.

Profit-Taking
The HSBC Holdings Plc/Markit Economics preliminary gauge of China factory activity for April fell to 49.2 from a final reading of 49.6 the month before, data showed Thursday.

Markets in China, Hong Kong and Japan have rallied too far too fast and are due for a correction, Clarke said. Investors who bought early are taking profits, and others are waiting for shares to drop, he said.

“The market is a marathon, not the 100 meters,” Clarke said. “You can probably stop for a breather in the marathon and still win.”

Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index were little changed. The underlying equity measure rose 0.2 percent on Thursday, while the Nasdaq Composite Index climbed to a record, topping its dot-com-era high, as U.S. stocks shrugged off mixed earnings.

Data showed purchases of new U.S. homes slumped more than forecast in March from a seven-year high, a sign progress in the industry will be halting. Applications for unemployment benefits held below 300,000 for the seventh straight week, pointing to a rebound in payrolls after hiring eased last month. [Ref]

FTSE Outlook

FTSE 100 Prediction and Strategies
FTSE 100 Prediction and Strategies

We are getting a bit of a pull back from the 7080 area where we have the top of the 10 day Bianca channel, which might go down to the daily pivot at 7048 (IG). The Live charts pivot is slightly lower at 7035 (as it excludes the move higher after 4:30pm). If this level holds then we should be on for further upside today towards the 7095 area, and then the top of the 10 day Raff at 7121. I tend to look at what the ASX200 (Australia) has done for a small clue for the FTSE and that had a very bullish session today – will be interesting to see if the FTSE has similar. If the bears break below the pivot area then the next supports are 6999, 6994 (yesterdays low), 6985 and 6960.

As you can probably tell I am am feeling bullish again today, though of course, being Friday I am ready to switch stance without too much hesitation, and if the daily pivot starts to break (and also the bottom of the 30 minute channel also with the 7048 area as the bottom) then I will flip to short for a test of 7000. The 10minute chart is currently bearish, whilst the 30min is bullish. We have US Durable goods news out at 13:30 which will have a bit of an impact then, forecast is 0.6%.

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55 Comments

  1. IG’s platform doesn’t feel right for me this morning, I’d strongly suggest stops at trade even though it will give them an excuse to screw us over.

    Short at 84 atm stop 7102

        1. Thanks 🙂 Short again 82 stop 99

          IG dealing page lagging their own non logged in home page prices ffs

          1. stop b/e limit 66 this is very frustrating I hate leaving them orders but wouldn’t be surprised if the platform goes down again 🙁

  2. Anybody else got some input about IG this morning please?
    I’m getting 2-3 point jumps between quotes

      1. Ta.
        I’m using 3 different computers and two different networks but it’s cr*p on them all.

    1. Senu — Yesterday’s rally post noon changed the outlook; we’re back on a bullish break I guess — Nicks projections look good, taking us to ≈ 7120 in the short term.

        1. Ive just shorted at 7095 though, for a dip to 7075ish. But 7120 might be good for the next short entry

          1. Nice one Nick, I was dying to short the second attempt at 7100 but was still having platform probs.
            Seems alright now.

          2. If this rises from 7070 to 7120 that all the arrows pretty much nailed:)

            I wanted a dip to the pivot at 7049, shame it stopped at 7053 pre open

          3. I’m turning into a raging bear for some reason.
            Short again at my favourite 82 looking for 60’s again

        2. I have completed my long on Dow and got 25 points on a rise from the pivot 18057-18082. Plus it was 62%, plus Nick’s arrow and bounce off the sloping trend line. Now I think it will have another attempt for a pivot or might go even lower. Initially planned for 18043 but took 1st on 18057 wanted to add at 18043 but never had a chance as it dropped to 18045, but because of spread I only had 18047 available. I wasn’t greedy, just wanted to be precise.

    1. Lol, lots of raging going on 🙂
      Any of my views are based on my trading time scale i.e. a couple of hours.
      I can certainly see a pop up to test ATHs at some point, no-one could discount that, it’s virtually inevitable technically.
      But, although I don’t get involved in news/fundamental analysis much, I can see the increasing likelihood of Milliband as a minority PM spooking the FTSE considerably.
      Also, the only real news that can come out of Greece is their default, just a matter of timing imo.
      Selling over 7100 has been a good earner recently, I think it’s still got some juice left it.

      1. Yeah I agree completely. I’m thinking:
        1. It’s Friday
        2. S&P had all time high yesterday (US bulls may want to push this further this afternoon)
        3. Surprise push up into the close at 16.30
        4. Float up on light volume after hours to 21.00.
        5. Last 3 hour red candles haven’t made a lower low than the 3 hour green candles before them – suggests it’s probably just a pull back before one more attempt at least on the highs – or at least the bears are weaker than the bulls.

        Rage on!

          2. strange, 65 wasn’t even touched. you shouldn’t have been stopped out. hm.. and 5 points stop loss.. too tight?

          4. moved stop to b/e too early and got stopped. dont think will get an entry unless SPX drops a bit at open then up all the way to 2125!

  7. Last call for the 70 train, now leaving Platform 1, don’t know which way it’s going though… 🙂

  9. Looking for a bounce around 52. Bl**dy expensive ploughman’s that, missed my 82 short 🙁

    1. I have to have an open position Jack, I have Compulsive Speculation Disorder 🙂
      Just took 6 points, 52 to 58, that’s my motorbike full of petrol for the weekend.

      2. I understand completely, in the past I would have taken that long bounce off 18012 and chase a couple of points, it would be 20 or 30 points, but is it worth it? Against Ema and my strategy? It could have just pierced like a lunatic to 17972. Is it worth it? What stop loss would be here? I could only guess 17972 (40 points) for what, to catch 20-30 points if I am lucky? It even broke the previous low, wasn’t worth it at this time.

        1. I think I mentioned it before Jack, but I split my trading in two.
          I have my main System trades, based on RSI mainly, and then I have my small ”Hunch’ trades which keep me from getting bored but are not particularly logical.
          I keep separate P/L analysis of both and if the ‘hunches’ go to a certain loss then I give them a time out for a couple of days.
          I have 32 points in the Hunch Bank (Notre Dame branch 😉 ) this week, so a 10 point flutter on a weak Friday close isn’t going to do me any harm.

          1. Just to thoroughly bore you, the 52 long was a System opening trade (RSI and gap filled) but a quick hunch close, as I was irrationally hoping for a further dip.

        2. Agree, 52 was the previous low of the day. I also do like as you call “hunch trades”, I was tempted at 18012 but platform wasn’t open and I was doing other things. Plus I risked today and got 25 points. What more could I ask? But such trades are good fun, agree. Sometimes you feel like it sometime don’t.

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