FTSE trade alerts – Support 6951, 6933, 6928, 6901, 6892 Resistance 6981, 6997, 7059, 7070, 7088

Good morning. And so it goes on, still no Greek deal as payday looms closer. Maybe they need to speak to Wonga!? European leaders and the head of the International Monetary Fund agreed to step up the intensity of talks over Greece’s fate after an extraordinary meeting in Berlin about ways to avert a default. The top-level huddle lasted past midnight Tuesday morning at Germany’s government headquarters with Chancellor Angela Merkel, IMF chief Christine Lagarde, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi, French President Francois Hollande and European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker in attendance. The goal was to hammer out an offer that Greece could consider in coming days, according to two people familiar with the plan. After Merkel left, her office put out a statement saying the five leaders “agreed that work must now be continued with greater intensity” and that “they have been in closest contact in recent days and want to remain so in the coming days, both among themselves and naturally also with the Greek government.” At the moment it really is all about Greece though the two trades yesterday worked well, the short from 7032 working very well in the end.

US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Most Asian stocks advanced as the yen held near a 12-year low against the dollar after data showed growth in U.S. manufacturing.

About five shares rose for every three that fell on the MSCI Asia Pacific Index, which slipped 0.1 percent to 150.98 as of 9:02 a.m. in Tokyo. U.S. output expanded more than forecast in May as orders rose at the fastest pace in five months, while construction spending beat estimates. The reports are the latest in a slew of data due this week that the Federal Reserve will weigh to determine when to raise interest rates. Japan’s Topix index climbed for a 13th day with the yen at 124.83 per dollar.

“This data gives comfort to a recovery in the second quarter and shows it’s stabilizing,” Tony Farnham, Sydney-based strategist at Patersons Securities Ltd., said by phone. “There’s moderate growth now in the U.S. economy, which gives the Fed an opportunity to take some of the steps to getting monetary policy back to a more normal level.”

The Shanghai Composite Index, which is yet to open, led gains across the region Monday, climbing 4.7 percent and extending its advance this year to 49 percent after an official manufacturing gauge showed a third month of expansion.

The Topix added 0.1 percent. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index rose 0.2 percent, with economists forecasting the Reserve Bank of Australia will keep its record-low 2 percent benchmark unchanged Tuesday. South Korea’s Kospi index climbed 0.2 percent. New Zealand’s NZX 50 Index gained 0.4 percent.

Futures on Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index slid 0.2 percent and contracts on the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index of mainland firms listed in the city declined 0.5 percent in most recent trading. Both underlying gauges have climbed more than 16 percent this year, compared with an advance of 9.6 percent gains on the MSCI Asia Pacific Index. FTSE China contracts traded in Singapore were down 0.3 percent.

E-mini futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index added 0.1 percent. The underlying measure rose 0.2 percent on Monday after growth in the Institute for Supply Management’s factory index outweighed data showing consumer spending stalled. [Ref]

FTSE Outlook

FTSE 100 Prediction for FTSE trade alerts
FTSE 100 Prediction

I have gone for a dip down to the bottom of the Bianca channels, which are both at similar levels – 6933 for the 10 day and 6928 for the 20 day – before a bounce on hope that a Greek deal is done. I am still expecting that they will sort it out, just going to be the usual 11th hour thing. If that 6928 area breaks then the next support is 6901, 6892 where we have the bottom of the Raff channels. Resistance wise, we have the daily pivot initially at 6981, then 6998. A move above this will likely open up a trip to 7033, 7059 and 7088 possibly. If a deal is announced today or tomorrow I expect markets will react favourably with upside so be ready for any moves like that. With golds rise from 1185 yesterday to above 1200 it looked like a flight to safety, but it then fell back again. Certainly an interesting week this one! The S&P fell to 2102 but the bulls fought it back with a decent rise back to 2115, though there does appear tho be a bit of weakness creeping in now and the short term top was most likely in at 2136 rather than the 2140. Back to the FTSE and the daily chart is a bit bearish now, looking at the EMAs, so the bulls might have a job to break 6998, unless helped by positive Greek news. There is also the 200ema on the 30min there to temper the bulls. Going to be another interesting day I think!

If you are looking for a FTSE trade alert service then please consider signing up

38 Comments

  1. Morning, while 38/40 holds I think there’s a bit of room for some upside this morning.
    Won’t like it much under 35 though.

    1. Missed the break of 35 🙁
      Daily 10 RSI has found support twice around here (38-40) on 31st March and 7th May. The previous time this level broke was 9th March and we ended up at 6700.

      1. Sorry, that should read 10th March. After breaking 37 rsi we free fell ~150 points. Currently 37.2 (On 0800-1630 chart).

        1. If 37 does hold however, there were big rewards on the long side previously, 250/300 point rallies.
          Knife edge…

  4. Feels like a shake out before good news… Suffering! Averaged down at 6924 on ftse which would have looked an incredible entry a week ago!

  5. Hi All,
    Just a brief boring story about my trading this last 4 weeks.
    May was pretty much a disaster. Stop then drop i line with trade. stop then rise in line with trade. IG must have made an absolute killing on my 1000 plus trades. Chasing losses, never a good way to trade. Yesterday monrning with approximatly £300 i just sold the ralies, FTSE, CAC, US500 and I benefited from the spike in gold. Here i sit 24 hours later with £4k.
    All i’ve done is bet black or red and got it right 50 odd times. I should cash in and walk away and book a holiday. I want to turn the £4k to £40k.
    If i don’t withdraw it, I suspect that I’ll give it all back.

    1. Thanks for sharing.
      I can guarantee you’ll give it all back eventually if you carry on risking a huge percentage of your account per trade. Either take the lot and treat yourself or sort out a sensible risk management plan.

      1. Tell me about it. my original plan was to average £40 gain per trading day. I’m just not strict enough with myself to follow my plan.

      2. Withdrawn. i’ll book a holiday when it arrives in my account at 3.30pm

        Good luck trading today everyone

        2. Glad you clawed some back Nick K. Thanks for posting/sharing. You definitely need discipline in this

    2. If you’re just randomly betting black/red then you may as well play online roulette I guess.
      If you want to trade with some logic behind it, then sign up for a service like Nick’s and see how you get on with small stakes.
      Always remember, the universe/fate doesn’t give a rat’s arse about what we ‘want’.
      Good luck (as in making a decision which gives you a chance).

      1. I would have to agree with Dan and tmfp, having learned the hard way.

        Between Mid-October and the end of November 2014 I gained around 500 points on the FTSE and I was up over £8k. By the end of the year I was down by more than double that and had lost all my profit and something like £15k of my capital, with £8k of the loss being in one day!

        I realised I wasn’t as clever as I thought and I’d actually just been very lucky for those earlier couple of months.

        I’m planning to join Nick’s service myself to put some structure into my trades and keep it sensible – get rich slowly instead of poor quickly, as he says.

        Just need to free up a bit of time from real work and get started!

  6. Tmfp yes good to get 1/3 back yesterday late on and glad I sold although in a bit of a hole here on the ftse. After the steep decline I did think a long back was likely but the more it hangs around the more I feel it will drift to 6850 which will be a massive running loss

    1. We trade totally differently my friend, but keep an eye on the RSI, it’s a valuable aid imo.
      See my post ^^

  7. That was a nice sellable bounce, back to normality for a little while?
    Out with a small long at 07

        1. 6981? Got to get through 40 and 60 first.
          Might do 40 but I think 60 will be a hard nut to crack.
          I don’t particularly like it around here (32), feels like a low volume markup rather than a proper rally.

  8. Jesus Christ I’m glad I’m not in the Dax today. Spikey spikey! See that 20 point gap up?! Feel a lot happier now the ftse is vice 6900

        1. Out without waiting. I have no feel for it today, not like yesterday.
          Walking away, good luck all.

          1. All over the shop today. That drop looks like it was just manufactured to take out lots of stops on longs

  11. Fed up. Once in my life time decided to trade this Dax. I’ve never seen the most indecisive market. It just doesn’t break up. Made mistake once – I closed a losing position which I thought I was just making a long trade. That trade should have been already closed by sl but it didn’t and I happened to close it myself. Won it all back and was waiting for that long since 11.30 Gave up in the end. At least b/e. still I think -6 points or something.
    I tried trading Dax before but never had a good experience. It’s like indecisive too much. Don’t know what to trade. Dow offers terrible spread out of market hours.

    1. Gosh, I wish I held my 6884 and 6897 Ftse trades. Actually I managed to lose on them.

  12. Jack the Dax is mental. Does nothing for days then pops out with triple digit swings from nowhere. No stability. It makes the Dow look tame. When this Greek thing is done there’s 1,000 points there but I think it you trade it you have to get used to being 300 points down in a day and it coming back an hour later?!

    1. That’s what I sensed in it. There’s no gradual in it. Once I had a swing on Dax greater than 200 points and said thank you very much and traded it once in a while. Dow is also dangerous but you get used to it.
      Dow is more generous on pull backs rather than FTSE, not sure about Dax. I’ve seen couple of charts, it gets somewhere and just sits there. Dow does its 38-61.8%

Comments are closed.