FTSE Prediction | Support 7004, 7001, 6953, 6921, 6862, 6834 Resistance 7035, 7052, 7076, 7103, 7120

[Edit – since doing this analysis at 6am, the IG system went down at 7am. That is usually a sign that the market is about to drop as they stop people trading. As as 08:07, the FTSE is 60 points off its 7am high at the pivot, and the Dax is down 100]

Good morning. Well we got the rise and dip yesterday and it was rather frustrating that the 7070 short got stopped on that random spike up to 7085, as the FTSE did indeed drop all the way to the 7020 target, and a little bit more. I expect today to see a climb back with the 7000 area holding as support. Interest rates and QE remained the same yesterday from the BoE, whilst its all eye’s on Greece now and what happens next in that lumbering saga, as the latest financial aid deal remains elusive. Retail sales in the UK in the four weeks between April 5 and May 2 fell by 2.4pc on a like-for-like basis and fell by 1.3pc overall, the closely-watched monthly survey by the British Retail Consortium and KPMG found. Today sees some manufacturing data released at 09:30, and this weeks dividend is expected to be 12.8 – might see some divi hunters for that tomorrow just before the bell.

US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Asian stocks fell for the first time in three days, after a decline in U.S. equities, as investors watched developments in Greece’s bailout talks and consumer shares retreated.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slid 0.1 percent to 151.63 as of 9:03 a.m. in Tokyo. The gauge advanced 0.9 percent in the past two days as China cut interest rates for the third time in six months and investors bet a rebound in U.S. employment wouldn’t lead to early interest-rate increases. The rally boosted valuations on the Asian benchmark index to 14.4 times estimated earnings on Monday, compared with 17.8 for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index. The U.S. equity measure slid 0.5 percent Monday in New York.

“Markets are increasingly nervous given where valuations are,” Matthew Sherwood, Sydney based head of investment strategy at Perpetual Ltd., which manages about $21 billion, said by phone. “Greece is going to be one of the markets’ key focuses this week. It has the potential to drag market sentiment.”

Greece handed the European Central Bank an excuse to maintain the life support for its financial system by persuading skeptical German-led creditors it’s serious about delivering the policies needed to escape a default.

Pressure on the two sides had intensified with the ECB due to reassess the emergency liquidity lines keeping the Greek banking system in business on Wednesday. Although some central bankers are pushing for stricter terms, it’s now unlikely that policy makers will decide to restrict funding this week, according to two European officials.

Japan’s Topix index was little changed. South Korea’s Kospi index gained 0.2 percent. New Zealand’s NZX 50 Index increased 0.1 percent. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index rose 0.2 percent. Markets in China and Hong Kong have yet to open.

China Rally
The Shanghai Composite Index advanced 3 percent yesterday, capping its biggest two-day gain since January. The five-day volatility on the index yesterday climbed to the highest in more than three months as the nation’s bull market continued.

E-mini futures on the S&P 500 were little changed today. The underlying measure retreated on Monday as Noble Energy Inc. led energy shares to their biggest drop since January as oil extended losses. [Ref]

FTSE Outlook

FTSE 100 Prediction
FTSE 100 Prediction

Having dropped to the target area yesterday I am expecting support around the 7000 area and indeed maybe starting to layer some in around the 7015 area is a good plan. Todays pivot is 7035 though, so we have initial resistance there for any early bounce, and the top of the daily Bianca channels are also showing resistance at 7052 (20 day) and q7076 (10 day). The bulls might have a bit of a job to push through these to aim for 7120, though with the S&P experiencing a pull back to the 2100 area yesterday as expected, if that start to climb now for 2140 it will take the FTSE up with it. I am feeling fairly optimistic for the price action on the FTSE today and am looking to go long fairly early on, especially if we get a little dip down to the 7000 area where we have the 200ema on the 30min and also the bottom of that rising channel as you can see on the chart below. If that level holds then I expect we will rise, certainly to the pivot, quite quickly, then a rise to the 7076 10 day channel and also the first resistance of that 30min channel at 7080. Ultimately I am expecting us to push higher and that we will see that 2140 on the S&P soon, and 7200ish on the FTSE where we have the top of the 10 day Raff. That said, it will be interesting to see what it does at the 20 day Bianca level at 7052.

97 Comments

  1. Gutted left a short open over night but got stopped out this morning with that rise then down through the floor it went.

      1. I’ll be shorting IG asap, w*nkers 🙁

        What support do you see around here Nick?

          1. Thanks.
            I’m cautious on the long side, feel there will be another wave of selling today.

  2. Disgrace. I closed a ftse short last night so only held a Lloyds short this morning. Worrying to see things like this going on when it’s hard enough! Interested to hear what other platforms people use. I like IG mobile platform but these games are getting too regular.

  4. I had an unpleasant discovery yesterday. Apparently I left a short order open 17997 which I didn’t remember at all until discovering it’s running in a loss yesterday since 8 May. I was like “what???” cos I was 100% I had no trades. That was unpleasant. Cos I remember looking and didn’t see any trades on Friday neither any orders. And suddenly on Monday here it is. I was disappointed. No way I would have opened short there, I must have really forgotten it.
    Well, I opened 2 trades up and down 18081 down and 18087 up. The down trades averaged and closed b/e just before I wrote that, God blessed. And second trade (long one) I averaged and closed with just couple of quid loss just before writing (a least not 120 quid loss). Phew, relieved. How that could happen to me? I became a bit suspicious to ETX now.
    Why I opened 2 trades?
    1st: I didn’t know it will go for sure down but felt it might. So I hoped for 2 scenarios. It went up to 18200ish and I would close long and would take short to average and would close sooner.
    2nd: what happened in the morning.
    Prefered 2nd from the start. wow.

      2. I tried first time this trick with Buy and Sell at the same time just because I figured it out when I needed it most. I wouldn’t do it on general basis.
        I must have had this order 17997 left since I closed all the other short trades before, that must have been forgotten. I can’t believe I forgot something like that.

    2. And I only discovered it at the end of the day after 20.00 otherwise I would have taken short in the morning.

  5. morning all

    long from 6950, 15 point stop, i can see a bounce up to the 7000 level by tomorrow afternoon, where i’ll also pick up the divi. Let’s see what happens

  12. I have decided a long on FTSE at 6907 with a initial target to 6941 and 7025.
    Gold Short 1184.300 and 1181.900

      1. Don’t apologise mate, you just saved yourself 17 points 😉 What system you trading?

        1. I use some simple Support and Resistance Indicators which I developed about a year ago, its all manual trading, I just trade what I see!

  14. That’s one mahoussive 4 hourly candle. Can’t believe 6887 is going to be the bottom, though it was such an obvious place for a bounce. Sideways into lunch and more down this afternoon or will we get a spectacular V shaped move back up? mmm not counting on it yet.

  15. According to my system, we have a daily SUPPORT at 6761 and Monthly Support at 6490.
    6940 is now Monthly Resistance and Weekly Resistance at 7079

    Hopes you guys find this helpful.

    1. Hi, are these figures calculated from IG or another platform or actual market data excluding futures?
      Thanks Nick

      1. Hi Nick, I don’t use IG as I mainly trade the Gold market…
        calculation is on my broker data and esignals RT.

        Just an quick update, I am still long on FTSE and Short on GOLD
        1 Hour support on FTSE is 6903
        There is also a further resistance at 6967, once my target is met, I will take a short on FTSE from 6967

          2. took 10
            it’s trying hard but not really going anywhere 10 min chart looks rubbish to me

  18. has Nick’s 6921 support become resistance? just a touch bellow Goldtrader’s monthly resistance at 6940.

  20. I kind of confused, we are beyond all pivot areas. Where’s the price is going? On Dow, Dax, FTSE? And why today this crash, what happened?
    As I understand Nick’s arrow no longer valid so I shouldn’t try them today no more?

    1. Greece again Jack, caused the drop. They have no money and IMF said no more bailout. Bit of support at 6880, then the daily channels at 6862 and 6834

  21. Why IG wants to stop people trading when the market is about to collapse? Is it a security measure?

    1. I love a conspiracy theory but I’m not sure I subscribe to that one, I just think they have old, outdated software which needs continual patching because they are too greedy to update.

  23. US futures and DAX looking optimistic but FTSE looking bearish???

    does anyone have a trading plan for today. IG signals says buy if DOW is above 18000.
    looks like an open downwards but you can never tell early on and before you know it it’s gone 100 points against you

    1. what did i say. 100 points against me in the blink of an eye. lucky i didn’t trade that signal :O)

    1. Doesn’t look like it. It’s 61.8% on FTSE, 50% on Dow and 61.8% on Dax. It may fight back now. imho

      1. however ignore me, I never know what it will do, I don’t want to be responsible for what this price may do.

  29. still holding for 6941, I have a feeling thats where FTSE will close for today!!

    1. As technical trader all I can guess is that the H4 support is held at 6903 and now its holding the monthly resistance at 6941 if 6941 is breached than 6967 is on the card for today

        1. “A day earlier than usual, the European Central Bank has increased the emergency funding available for Greek banks” Guardian reporting this – not sure if it’s the reason or an excuse – this market loves V shaped reversals. People getting in early for the 12.8 divi as well?

  32. I am short on dow at 18071 target 18008 (lower) and stop at 18181, although I will average it if the dow decides to break above 18117 – that’s my next short.

      2. Sorry guys I am new here so not familiar with hilsdentrading’s betting system, but for now, lets enjoy the short on DOW.
        I have closed my FTSE long Entry 6890 Closed 6941 and my XAUUSD shorts still remain open.

        DOW short is doing well and hope to see 17950 before another push to the upside

          1. My dreams always comes true, lets call it 17876 in the next few sessions and for tonight, (unless the 18115 is crossed and closed above), we can expect a retest of the low of the day.
            Thanks you

        2. We don’t have a “betting system” here mate, just a natural reaction to new posters claiming ‘messages’ about price movements 🙂
          You weren’t far out though. Good luck with the DOW short, I reckon 950 could be on the cards again later too.

          1. thanks tmfp for clarification… I am looking to long FFTSE at 6876 – 6875 later tonight, below these level 6833.

            7059 is a short in my book.
            See how things goes for now.
            Regards
            goldtrader

    3. Nah … wants to close above tomorrow’s pivot which is probably in the 6940-5 region

        1. didn’t exactly reach the target price Jack 2 but its on its way there at least no losses, I am happy with small profit.
          Thanks for laughing………….

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