FTSE 100 Support 7465 | Political mess | DUP/Con Alliance

12th June 2017

Getting quite boring now hearing about voting and politics! May is fighting for survival this week, not just in keeping the Conservatives (with a possible DUP alliance) as the government but also her job as PM. The vultures are circling, and Boris looks like he is once again waiting in the wings. Corbin is also saying that he should PM so all in all its the usual political mess, brought about for no reason at all! Markets have been fairly static since the futures opened last night, with just a 25 point decline from where they closed on Friday night, despite a technology sell off that started in the US and spread to Asia – was inevitable really at some point soon, as the Nasdaq was hitting those highs at the back end of May, and declined 2.4% on Friday. Sterling is steady and oil rose – the first would weaken the FTSE 100, the latter help it rise. This week it also looks likely that the US will raise interest rates on Wednesday.

FTSE 100 Outlook and Prediction

Daily FTSE 100 Trend Channels
Daily FTSE 100 Trend Channels

The chaos continues which doesn’t make predicting the moves very easy. However, we have support at 7465 to start with today with both the 20 day Bianca channel here, and also the Hull moving average on the 2 hour chart. If this level holds then we might well see a rise towards the 7537 daily resistance level and things might look a bit more positive to start with. Bull Monday after all, though the backdrop for the buying is anything but stable! Markets hate uncertainty so they say, yet Friday put in a strong defensive rise.

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109 Comments

  2. Morning, had some good scalps this AM. Took a nice short of Dax too..only small stakes mind.

    Looking for larger entry to FTSE short but am thinking this will get up to 7550 before falling?

    Icarus I see your in, I’m in small but nervous about going too heavy.

      1. I don’t think 50 is on the cards today though, and price needs to go lower to go higher. Hence short.
        Don’t go for higher stakes if you are not comfortable

  3. Morning Icarus,I’m long from 98 :0) thanks for your reply over weekend,best of luck….

  5. I’m thinking it might be able to push past this 10 -12 level on the third attempt……This 7510 level held Ftse up for quite a time before election before it collapsed ……I think the 10 level is an important area but I’m not good with technical charts just what I see in price action…

  6. Good work Anstel, you must have been running a heavy stake!

    I have tipped short up at 7520. Still think it will run higher. Will wait for 13:30 news and later in day before I go balls out!

    1. I started at 50 but added to 70 as I became more confident I was right,then last add was an extra 10 making a total of 80pp from 7498.5…..and out at 21.3 so it was 22.8 points at 80…… It came out at 1.822.50…..

  7. Hi all, currently under water from 7498 short. Small stakes thou so happy to hold for a while. Looking at the daily chart, think over next few days we might see some bearish action. to continue from before the election. Treating the green long candle as a pull back. Fingers crossed.

      2. Anstel, I worried I don’t see what you do. Surely buying at this level with geo politics as it is, is risky.

        Are you thinking a falling pound will lift FTSE?

        Not saying your wrong but want to
        Understand your thinking…as i was going to add heavy short and now I’m not sure!

        1. It’s just what I’ve learnt over 3.5 yrs of trading 24/5 …..I can’t really explain what I do…I don’t know….it’s just a feel for what’s happening…..There’s a guy on you tube called Jason Stapleton…..one of his big things he says is……”look left….structure leaves clues”. One thing to certain failure in my eyes though is thinking the market can’t go higher…It can go either way at any time…..I think a lot of people read all the stuff on the Internet about market crash 2017 and just go short…..It doesn’t matter which way it goes so long as we get a difference in our favour….I am starting to look at the short side just not convinced it’s the time just yet…..good luck…

          1. Just re read your post Morko….yes I think the pound will fall against the dollar and encourage Ftse to rise…..how much I’m really not sure…

  11. RSI right bang in the middle on Ftse,,,,think if and when cable reverses back down Ftse should be good for a little more upside…

  13. To satisfy my curiosity I added a small long, I’m short bias but if it does rise before it falls then happy days, If not well I’m still up.

    Done 109pips so far this morning but all small stakes. Need to get confidence in going higher.

    I safe and steady and all that but also many small trades gives many risks.

  15. Just gone short Ftse at 29.8 small,can add higher,on Rsi divergence,don’t know if it will work just experimenting…

      1. I thought there was/ is a lot of underlying g buying interest and its goin to go up ….now long from 27

        1. Sometimes I have found if there is quite a strong upward rally its best to take very small amounts of points profit with the short in case the upward trend resumes…..in this case I was wrong….

    1. I read your post…..went long Dow at 18 out at 38 for 20pts small though but all adds up…My Ftse is underwater at minute….time to get the kettle on :0)….

    1. It’s funny how we all think differently…I’m thinking when Ftse closes it will rally….oh well wait and see as usual GL….

      1. Yes the reason is ive seen this kind of price action before and it often rallies when Ftse officially closes..it’s just experience and feel that’s all and doesn’t always work !!! But I don’t mind having a go :0)

        1. I’m all for getting stuck in :0)….. I don’t mean stuck in a position lol :0) although that happens more than I’d like :0)

  23. New short on Dow at 22.

    Pushing my luck here, but I think tonight it fall – a lot of data out this week! Hunch!

  25. So on wed this week if the interest rate goes up again am I right in thinking this is likely to push the Dow down. ?

      1. Hey Coombsy.you remember our little conversation on election night…..look up apricot kernels,Apple seeds, millet they have something called amygdalin in them and then look at what happens when trypsin from the pancreas comes into contact with the amygdalin…..gonna post you a video…

  28. Closed Dow for +25.

    Have one short left on sp500

    Will re enter dow if it goes up again!

  30. I’m trying to make 300pts. Will be a record for me..that is traded open and closed in same day. Shame my stakes have only been a few quid!

      1. I’m in and out of dax, Dow, FTSE and gold. It’s not the norm for me!

        Most of it on Dow shorts its been up and down a few times.

        1. But how do you find the moment when to come in again? Some magic indicator or fib? I missed a couple of times for shorts because I didn’t like some signals and I traded only from 11am to 3pm. But it would be nice to know how you re-enter. Thanks.

          1. Hi Jack,

            No indicators for these scalp trades. It’s a matter of gauging how high you think the top is. So for Dow it’s at all time highs, no real news and a lot of political tension. Also a dump on Friday in tech firms still looming. All things considered how high is it going to go? That’s the entry point. It may go up a little but not a lot. Patience and it will fall normally. If it does and slows then close, of it goes up again the re sell. That’s it. I posted my trades if you want to overlay lay what I did with the Dow. But please do not follow me as I loose my fair share too!!!

          2. Oh, thank you morko. No, I am not planning to follow anyone, you are right, everyone trades in his own style. Just amazing 300 points in one day. Keep it up!

  31. I’ve gone in quite heavy on Dow now that I’m home and can apply some grey matter.

    It’s at all time highs, with poor data and creating for a fall. I see limited upside risk but have enough in my pot to add if needed.

    ….bet I will be cursing this decision come closing bell.

      1. Don’t let that big Dow short win on election night cloud your judgement……just be careful matey….

        1. Cheers Brother Anstel you are right…. thing is a big trade for me is 5ppt which is less than 1% of pot…

          I am very cautious- burnt too many times.

          What’s your biggest point haul? Open question to all.

          1. Now your asking …can’t remember…..remember once goin long on Dax trying to get a 1000pt gain for prosperity,Nick with probably remember….held it for ages :0) got up to about 600 pts up and then it declined and I came out with nothing…lol another cock-up :0)

          2. I’ve pretty much made every mistake imaginable,more than once as well….I don’t think anyone can teach us to trade…..I think it’s learnt the hard way with pain,tears,being very annoyed with ourselves,determination sleepless nights,persistence …over time….3-4 yrs in a lot of cases and very hard work….and an unyielding belief through all the pain we can succeed…you have to be able to get up when you have nothing left emotionally and financially in your account and try again,and again and again…

            1. Yeah, I have made literally thousands of trades and I have no way mastered it yet. Importantly though what’s good for one isn’t for another. We have to adapt our game style to suit our personalities and situation

    2. Maximum I had was 180 points on Dax and it was by mistake: cos I forgot about my order and in 2 days I opened the account and didn’t understand why I am having a massive winning position in my account? I thought it was Christmas. I closed it at once of course (but possibly lost it later :)) All my big wins were due to me my forgetfulness. I remember a couple of times.

  34. A little often is my style. Less emotional too so I don’t care if it goes the wrong way a little

  35. So I am holding a small short on Dow opened at 21198. It’s about 15 in the hole at the minute. Going to hold it as a fall is on either tonight or tomorrow. I will re add if it goes up a lot. This is really for jack as an example of my trading method. If it goes in profit I will close depending on how much and when. I will close by 8:50pm if in any profit though as the Dow normally rallies last thing as orders are closed and people close out.

    1. Yes, it was interesting for me to know. I used to add to the positions but I didn’t find it effective for me, personally (could not cope with the stress) so I stick to the old scalping method which is right for me. But good luck!

  36. Short added at 21215. Not gone above 21220 since 16:30. Will watch carefully if it gets a rally on I may kill it.

  38. Anstel, in regards to your previous comment, I did wanna say thank you. I really appreciate your posting. Unfortunately it’s a one way outcome but Recently the last 6 months I have found that there are some top, kind and incredibly generous people out there in our world. I know it now affects almost everyone at some stage in their lives whether it be themselves or a loved one and i have had nothing but genuine sympathy and patience from all around me. Cheers fella. I suppose my trading has helped to be a distraction at times (a positive one mostly) and win lose or draw I shall endeavour to become just acute / profitable as some of you on hear.

    1. I think a lot of the health problems we face today are due to the processed foods we eat….I think the body’s defence systems need the natural foods to maintain a healthy state……unfortunately a lot of the constituants of the natural food are lost in the processing ……best wishes to you and your sister Coombsy ……and good luck…

    1. Ok I managed to nap just under a point on my Ftse long that ended up from 25….fantastic day…..no losses and over 2k profit….I’m over the moon tday and the best bit I get to sleep tonight…..goodnight guys and best of luck everyone…

      1. Awesome days work!

        Got to be better than the daily grind and working to make some fat cat rich !

        1. Yeah dead right I did years and years grafting…..Work smarter not harder……plus trading is flexible ,you might work two weeks 24/5 solid but then you can have some of the summer to live your life….it’s the ultimate flexitime ,it’s just getting through the learning process with your sanity intact and enough money left to eat…..anyway we are only as good as our last trade….tomorrow’s a new day….I’m under no illusions…this is really really hard…..goodnight Morko and everyone…and good luck…

  41. Gents,

    Signing off. Been a pleasure again – I thank you all for sharing, it’s what makes this forum the best I’ve known.

  44. Morning guys,I went short at 46.7 combined at 4.45 am highest position 48.8…. Closed it at 7am at 38 for 8.3 pts medium and I’m now long too early from 36..with a little size on…

  45. Morning, currently hedged with a 20 point gap. Just trying to work out when best to close one of them to shrink the deficit. All fun and games.

    1. Here’s one possible option…….sit tight and hopefully it will go up above 7550 maybe 7570 7600 ideally but that’s a big ask…..then when you think it’s had a good bullish day close the long and hopefully you should pull 20 pts back on the retrace……..and the relative safety of being short…….I always think it’s better to hedge short on a futures contract that way you get paid the divi off the Ftse daily and don’t have a dividend liability on the futures contract…

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