FTSE 100 Support 6830 6822 6818 6813 6774 6663
FTSE 100 Resistance 6855 6860 6873 6888 6964
Good morning. I hope you had a good weekend. Fairly quiet on the financial font over the weekend, while the Olympics drew to a close with Team GB coming second in the medals table which is good. Keeps the profile high for more lottery funding too! Excellent performances though all round. Iain Duncan Smith has mentioned that we should invoke article 50 sooner rather than later and start the Brexit negotiations rather than waiting till next year and the French and German elections.
US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
- Yen slips, Topix gains as BOJ flags chance of September easing
- Fed’s Fischer signaled 2016 rate hike still being considered
The dollar strengthened versus all of its major peers, while Asian stocks and commodities retreated as hawkish comments from a Federal Reserve official boosted the likelihood of a U.S. interest-rate rise this year.
Bloomberg’s dollar index rose to a one-week high after Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer said Sunday the U.S. economy is already close to meeting the central bank’s goals and that growth will pick up. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index of shares dropped to a two-week low and futures foreshadowed losses in U.S. and U.K. equities. Japanese stocks advanced after Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda flagged the possibility that the authority’s unprecedented monetary stimulus will be added to in September. Oil fell to about $48 a barrel and silver led losses among precious metals.
Global markets have been buffeted over the past week by comments from Fed officials flagging the possibility of higher borrowing costs as early as next month, even though minutes of the central bank’s last meeting struck a more dovish tone. The focus will shift to Janet Yellen’s speech this week at a gathering of global central bankers in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Futures traders on Friday assigned a 22 percent probability to a September rate increase by the Fed, up from 16 percent a week earlier.
“Janet Yellen’s speech on Friday will have the biggest impact on short-term market moves, especially if she follows in Stanley Fischer’s relatively hawkish tone,” said Angus Nicholson, a market analyst at IG Ltd. “A week of talking up the U.S. dollar will be good for U.S. financial stocks that would benefit from a rate rise and some of that positivity could spread over into financials globally.”
Currencies
Bloomberg’s Dollar Spot Index rose 0.5 percent as of 1:11 p.m. Tokyo time, after losing ground in each of the last two weeks. South Korea’s won fell 0.9 percent versus the greenback and New Zealand’s dollar lost 0.8 percent, the biggest declines among 16 major currencies.
“We expect the dollar to consolidate this week with a modest upside bias,” said Elias Haddad, a senior currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia in Sydney. “There is room for U.S. interest-rate expectations to adjust a bit higher this week.”
The yen dropped 0.6 percent to 100.84 per dollar. Kuroda told the Sankei newspaper that the BOJ is conducting a comprehensive review of Japan’s economy and finances and said there is “sufficient chance” of more easing at next month’s policy meeting. Softer July inflation data this Friday may raise odds for more aggressive BOJ easing, Haddad said.
India’s rupee weakened 0.2 percent after India named Urjit Patel to take over from Raghuram Rajan as central bank governor from Sept. 4. The currency slipped to its weakest level this month, while China’s yuan fell to a two-week low and Indonesia’s rupiah dropped back to about where it was at the end of June.
Stocks
Japan’s Topix index added 0.5 percent as the yen’s decline boosted exporters including Toyota Motor Corp., which was headed for its highest close since March.
The MSCI Asia Pacific excluding Japan Index slid to a two-week low, led by losses in energy companies and raw-materials producers. BHP Billiton Ltd. retreated from a nine-month high in Sydney and Cnooc Ltd., China’s biggest offshore oil and gas producer, fell as much as 2.4 percent in Hong Kong.
South Korea’s Kospi index slipped from a 13-month high as foreign investors pulled funds from the securities, after injecting more than $5 billion since the start of this quarter. Taiwan’s benchmark was set for its lowest close in a month and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index extended Friday’s retreat from a nine-month high.
Futures for the S&P 500 Index fell 0.2 percent after the gauge ended last week within 0.3 percent of an all-time high. Pfizer Inc. is close to an agreement to buy Medivation Inc. for about $14 billion and a deal may be announced as early as Monday, according to people familiar with the situation. Futures on the U.K.’s FTSE 100 Index were also down 0.2 percent.
Commodities
The Bloomberg Commodity Index declined 0.5 percent, after slipping from a one-month high in the last session.
Crude oil declined 0.9 percent to $48.09 a barrel in New York after Iraq, OPEC’s second-biggest producer, said it will boost exports by about 5 percent in coming days. The price jumped 9.1 percent last week on speculation that OPEC talks next month could lead to an output freeze. U.S. drillers added rigs for an eighth week, the longest run since April 2014, Baker Hughes Inc. data show.
Silver dropped as much as 3 percent to a seven-week low, while gold was down 0.5 percent amid the dollar’s advance. Silver has rallied 37 percent this year while gold jumped 26 percent as the Fed refrained from tightening and other central banks embraced negative rates, benefiting bullion which doesn’t pay interest.
Bonds
The yield on two-year U.S. Treasuries climbed three basis points to a two-month high of 0.78 percent following Fischer’s remarks, which were made after New York Fed President William Dudley said last week that the market was underestimating the likelihood of policy tightening.
“The most recent lot of Fed speakers — and these are key speakers — have signaled that the market should be putting a greater weight on the risk of a move before year-end,” said Su-Lin Ong, a senior economist at Royal Bank of Canada in Sydney. “Markets have reacted accordingly: yields have moved higher, the dollar is also firmer. The market is clearly susceptible to Yellen making similar comments in Jackson Hole.”The 10-year Treasury yield increased by two basis points to 1.60 percent. Ong said it could climb toward 1.70 percent if Yellen’s remarks on the economy are along the lines of those made by Fischer when she delivers her address on Friday.
Australia’s 10-year bond yield increased by five basis points to 1.91 percent and Japan’s rose by one basis point to minus 0.08 percent. [Bloomberg]
FTSE 100 Outlook and Prediction
6844 is looking a fairly key level for today – it held as support on Friday but we have dropped off from the 6870 level since the bounce from there. As such, if the 6840 breaks then we are looking at a test of the bottom of the Bianca channels which are both fairly close at 6822 and 6813. I have gone for a bounce off the 6820 level to test the 6850 previous support from there. Initially I am thinking a short though with an entry around the pivot area at 6860.
The 2 hour chart is still bearish, and the 6870 area tested on Friday night was the 100 Hull MA. We still have a red coral on that time frame with resistance at 6888 to bear in mind as well. On the daily chart we do also have the bottom of the 10 day Raff at 6830, so we may well see a bit of action from the bulls fighting back, especially if the bottom of the Bianca channels hold. Initially it looks weak though so the momentum has swung more in the bears favour at the moment.
Morning Nick!! last week short closed @ 37 this morning ! Ride that long till 75 major resistance according to me ! currently short from 82 .. will hold it for a while .. I can see 6800 today may be … have a good day friends
out @36..time fr break !!
I’m liking this drop – hope it busts through 6830
Si,did you watch that YT vid I posted for you on Friday?
I haven’t yet, it’s lined up though! I’m at the age it could be useful!
Nice one…..BTW…I dumped my big long last week for – 20pts….I can feel another assault on the ATHs still so it’s back on:0)
BTFD….
:0)
Lots of dips to buy…..:0)
4hr chart looks negative
Managed to reduce my pos to “only” 70pp, 6498 avg. Phew – was 150pp over the weekend.
Not looking to trade the noise gonna run it for the week I reckon….
BTFD..? FTSE 7000 this week?
Hi mate how’s it going buddy…..thought you’d retired to Antigua or something :0)
lol mate… not much trading in recent days. busy with some other project.
have you bought this dip 😉
Have I lol :0)
Back to 6950 first then maybe just maybe a push toward 7000…..good luck Senu…..give your stops some room…..
i still think, there is till room to squeeze the shorts. who knows ?!
Nothing’s Guaranteed that’s for Sure but if it was going to drop a lot I think tmfp would be back from his travels…….BTMFATH :0)
I’m long from 6847 small position, looking to see 7000…
You guys… The only way is 6349 🙂 Sell!
you may be right too..
Afternoon all, what’s the chances of dropping below 6800? Only have enough to place stops at 6785, got 3 trade looking for 7000.
Gotta make your own decisions I’m afraid mate but if in doubt reduce your position size….
Could easy go lower, IMHO reduce stake to increase your margin. If it can do you over it will, but as the adverts say you make your own rules. Gl
If you squint your eyes and think bearish, the DOW looks ready to tank on open. 🙂
dow, everyday it dips at open, recovering at the close. today also??
Today feels different!
its the same story today
buenos dias all, for what it’s worth I think it will go up to 6890 or beyond, BUT it could easy see 700 or lower too. In multiple longs – Aim to pull at 6860 and stage out every 10 or so after that
Managed to get Long @15 ..
out @ 32.. see you tomorrow folks
Looking at the Daily timeframe, I’d say there’s a good chance now that price will lead WAV (weighted average) 20 down to meet WAV 100, which at the moment is still rising. That could happen around 6650-6700. Looking out for you Si! 😀
https://td.md.it-finance.com/ProRealTime_V10_2/display_chartimage.phtml?name=qizjw9qbhkl50karuk5y3rdbl&type=png&purpose=file
It’s all gone Pete Tong.
Have I missed something? Why’s the DOW shot up? …hate being on holiday!
All aboard for 19,000 Dow lol :0)
Jackson hole :0)
up down up down I’m getting dizzy
Hey all
Today I met the perils of averaging into losers… The Dax was on a mission and went about 100 pts against me… I ended up at 1000pp and in a Si sized hole which threatened to kill my account. ‘Luckily’ it had reached the full length of its elastic band at that point and it came back in and let me out with a sizeable profit, but one which was 10x less than the actual risk I ran. Had I had the balls I should have let it run at that point, although it did bounce 20pts against me, so I think perhaps I should have taken most of the profit and just left 100pp on. The market dropped for 150pts after that, so would have been a really really GOOOD day 🙂
Still, it was a GOOOD day – I didn’t kill my account and I learnt a lesson – I’m now being far more willing to chop losers rather than average past a point and I’m being more selective in my entries so that the chances of it running that far against me are at least ‘limited’ by overdone rsi.
correction, it dropped 270pts after i exited – god, I could have retired lol 🙂
correction to correction – more like 250, but still haha
—— hell a grand a point are you for real noodles? On the DAX come on that’s CRAZY……I’m pushing now myself but that’s CRAZY……stop it now noodles or you will lose your house and totally ruin your life……Rome wasn’t built in a day but pompei was destroyed…..Come on mate….unless you have a few million pounds to play with its just a matter of time before you get taken out…….Take it Easy mate…..to come first ..first you have to finish…….Best of Luck as always but be careful…….
Thanks Anstel -its a valid concern – I was reasonably calm to start with, but I did realise the abyss was within touching distance and got worried – i didn’t wan’t to lose 50% of my account on one position and it was a distinct possibility. I think its safe to say I would sack myself if I was a risk manager.
“Si sized”. Nice to be the measure of wrecklessness! I had a 1000pp day on the GBP/EUR pair back in Dec 2008. Lost 200k in a single day and then made 340k the very next day as it bounced. I’ll never forget that and you probably won’t forget this! Had a call from IG soon after, asking some silly questions.
wow !! really 340 K in a day … you r joking right ?
Nope – could have easily been a massive loss but the gods were with me that day. A guy from IG invited me out for lunch. I was way over my head.
Hehehe holy sheeet 🙂 That must have been some rollercoaster of a week!!!!
Wow you chaps are punching so far above my head. Can I ask did you build up to that and if so what did you start on/from?.
Afternoon all,logged in at 13.30 and fell asleep 🙁 ,didnt even catch the Ftse close and the shorts closing or whatever it is.See the Dow is at a round number,S1 is 500 today too.
Hey WSF it’s full of Goldman Sachs traders on here and they have been watching the Big Short while under the influence….lol…:0)
Evening,if I come across that chart of consecutive loss probabilities based on what the winning percentage is again I will post it here, 5 or 6 losers in a row is mathematically unavoidable for a sub high 90 % win rate is something worth believing though.
Snapped a gear cable this morning,ended up pedalling like a madman on a flat road to move slower than a Buffett trade,might move in TMFP’s direction and get a Moped for outdoors and an exercise bike for indoors.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cKnoffPV8m0
Lol lovin it buddy keep the grins coming……what about one of those little Honda 70 monkey bikes like they had in dumb and dumber…..proper laugh :0)
Honda Z series is tempting now you mention it
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/5/57/Honda_Z50M.jpg/450px-Honda_Z50M.jpg
I know someone with a pre rules and regulations Mountain Bike with an electric motor and he claims he tripped a speed camera going downhill on it once 🙂 thing weighs about 25kg
http://youtu.be/TViEzHJrMcM
Lol this is a better one enjoy :0) http://youtu.be/AYCwIxdSRQs
Speed camera on an electric mountain bike double lol…imagine if it went to court and they produced the photograph as evidence…….. I bet the judge would wet himself lol :0)
http://youtu.be/sLB-uMPj27s :0)
Bit like trading :0)
Be a nice photo to have though.
Imagine how many times the Fed could change their message about interest rates during a road trip like that D & D one.
http://www.marctomarket.com/2016/08/dollar-weakness-and-fed-expectations.html
Bet Janet Yellen goes to Jackson Hole in a Bus like that too 🙂
:0)
For anyone interested in UK Property
http://www.sharecast.com/news/government-reportedly-readying-a-multi-billion-pound-property-fund/24854338.html