1st February 2017
FTSE 100 Support 7130 7129 7115 7094 7063 7053 7043
FTSE 100 Resistance 7147 7153 7162 7180 7250
Good morning. Well I wasn’t quite expecting it to rise to test 7165 I must admit, as the resistance around 7150 looked pretty decent. But once it had tested that level the FTSE 100 fell pretty hard down to 7100 and we have since had a bit of a bounce from there. Apple reported last night and beat expectations. I expect the other mainstays (Facebook, Google, etc) will be the same. I was sort of expecting the bulls to push a bit higher once they managed to get to 7165 to test Fridays closing price at 7185 but they seems to stall at the 7165, the rise was a bit strange, mostly fuelled by the fall on cable (GBPUSD) – as that rose back later in the day then the FTSE fell back. The value of the pound climbed as high as $1.2593 against the dollar after the US president heavily criticised China and Japan for “play[ing] the money market”. Germany were also in the firing line, as Mr Trump’s trade chief, Peter Navarro, accused Berlin of using a “grossly undervalued” euro to “exploit” the US and the rest of the EU.
For today there is 10 day Bianca resistance at 7153 so the bulls will be keen to push above this, though the bears will be keen to break 7095. As its also the first of the month we “usually” get an initial rise as the new months money comes into funds etc. So maybe another rise and dip day again, similar to yesterday. It’s looking fairly positive at the moment.
FTSE 100 Outlook and Prediction
As mentioned above I am expecting a bit of a rise and dip day again, as the start of the new month often sees an initial rise. With the bearish activity yesterday, admittedly helped by the pound, I am still thinking that we will get a dip down to 7000 at some point over the next few sessions, but the bears will need to break 7080 for that.
Today I am looking at resistance at 7153 initially where we have the 10 day Bianca channel, then Fridays closing level of 7185, both levels are worth a short from. We have had a decent overnight bounce from the 7100 test last night, but it could just be more of a dead cat one within a bigger decline. If 7185 holds as resistance, and with the FTSE dropping below 7135 yesterday, the bigger picture still looks bearish and a short from that level could yield 100+ points. I will try a short at the 10 day channel first though but if it doesn’t react quickly I would say that the FTSE is likely to push higher to the 7185. If that breaks then 7220 and 7285 are likely upside target areas, With gold back above 1200 and cable wanting to build on its gains around the 125 level I think there is a higher chance of more bearishness on the FTSE.
Looks like 7185 now.
Keeps threatening and never seems to have the legs to get there.
Yeah, it turned for the time being. But it’s not the evening yet.
Small drop off the weekly pivot there at 7170. Does look like 7185 on the cards now.
Be bear, be strong 🙂
Morning.
That visit to 7100 ticked the 38.2% Fib retracement of the bull run off the Dec lows and the old dog is looking reasonably perky at the mo.
January’s monthly candle is the first bearish hammer since May 13, which turned out to be the yearly high and was followed by a 10% pullback..
Medium/short term, for me it needs to break 200 and hold to be back on track properly and that looks a bridge too far right now.
Currencies are going to yoyo and influence equity prices, but there’s no doubt in my mind that current political events are going to make punters risk averse and equities vulnerable to sharp sell offs.
So I’m selling the bounces, looking to build a large-ish short position to trade against, only getting worried around 240.
Agree with this tmfp. What sort of shorting levels are you thinking?
Playing it by ear really Nick, entering on my usual basis of overbought rsi and resistance levels. I’ll take profits on the same basis and roll them into stop financing.
Got some on this morning av high 60’s, no hurry to cover but just took 20% out at 51.
I’m not on a mission involving running large red, if I catch it I catch it, if I miss it I miss it.
Yes, we just shorted 7165 in the live room also. Bit of 10min support here now at 7150. Still quite fancy 7185
I was only hoping for 60ish to reshort but it didn’t happen. took a bit more out at 38 and that’s it for this morning I think.
US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Jan): 246K (est 168K rev prev 151K)
Unimpressive reaction to figures like that, to say the least.
Took a bit more out at 15, running the rest, stop 88 for the moment.
Dax doesn’t move, but FTSE lost 25 points from the top. Myself waiting for 11667 on Dax and FTSE’s 7185 hopefully at the same time. Short momentum seems slow on Dax..
I think Dax is playing their old game: slow grinder.
Oh, there’s no point to short anymore, everything is back to normal on Dax.
well, taken 67 dax short right now, just a little 20 points stop. may come out if anything.
risking my pants here. half stake though
sorry, 87 short I took, pardon me.
You were right first time Jack, it’s on a grind up.
that wasn’t the best trading idea. -24 quid. and that was lucky.
i think it’s ftse that is bearish
Got it back, what’s the point of today?
short was taken too early and so I am out now.
long 49 providing great pleasure, for now
Done and dusted, hehe
Irritated despite some nice blue, I expected today to be a pivotal day for the rest of the week and called it too strong.
Rally then sell off to the close looks likely now.
Hi all
Scraped together meager returns today, but so much driving fx at the moment that I’m having difficulty believing in any moves. Perhaps some more clarity after fomc.
trump wants weaker dollar, fed wants stronger ? hmmmm.
Is FOMC actually today? Will it shoot up?