FTSE 100 Resistance 6845 6917 | Support 6800 | Bulls gaining control | ECB Stimulus

FTSE 100 Support 6780 6778 6763 6743
FTSE 100 Resistance 6820 6831 6839 6845 6890 6916

Good morning. The bulls managed to push things on fairly well yesterday, though we managed to gain on both the S&P and FTSE shorts. The FTSE buy order at 6713 was just a smudge too low as we bounced at 6720 instead to reach an overnight high of 6815. The Dax steadily rose for its entire session. Spread bet brokers were hard hit yesterday after the Financial Conduct Authority outlined a string of measures to crack down on the spread-betting market, shares in Plus500 fell 27.6 per cent, CMC Markets fell 29.5 per cent and IG Group fell 31.6 per cent. I see IG as a good buy at the 450 level myself, as they are likely to come out of it fine, while others wont. Probably give the industry a bit of a shake up anyway.

US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg

Asian stocks climbed, following a rally in U.S. equities, as crude and the yen extended losses. The Australian dollar fell after a report showed the world’s 12th-largest economy shrank by the most since 2008.

The Topix index rose in Tokyo as Japan’s currency weakened past 114 per dollar. The Aussie declined after the statistics bureau said third-quarter gross domestic product decreased 0.5 percent from the prior quarter, the first contraction since 2011. Crude extended its slide below $51 a barrel after retreating Tuesday to end gains spurred by OPEC’s output deal. Copper swung to a gain.

More than $1.5 trillion has been added to the value of global equities in the past month amid speculation U.S. President-elect Donald Trump will stoke inflation, driving the Dow Jones Industrial Average to a record and sending bond yields surging as money poured out of fixed-income assets. Investors are also betting European monetary policy will remain accommodative.

“This stabilization story in Europe and further stimulus from the ECB will be bullish for equities,” said James Woods, Sydney-based analyst at Rivkin Securities, a brokerage. “The minimum we’re expecting is for the ECB to announce a six-month extension.”

Analysts forecast the Reserve Bank of India will cut its key interest rate on Wednesday, while the European Central Bank is expected Thursday to extend its bond-buying program beyond the current March end date.

Stocks

Japan’s Topix index gained 0.9% in Tokyo. Softbank Group Corp. jumped 6.2% after Chief Executive Officer Masayoshi Son told President-elect Donald Trump he would create 50,000 new jobs in the U.S. through a $50 billion investment in startups and new companies
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index added 0.4%. Australian real estate and financial companies led a 0.9% advance on the S&P/ASX 200 Index; New Zealand’s S&P/NZX 50 Index slipped 0.3%. South Korea’s Kospi index rose 0.1%
Futures on the S&P 500 Index climbed 0.1 percent after the measure posted a 0.3% advance on Tuesday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.2 percent to close at another record

Commodities

West Texas Intermediate crude dropped 0.3% to $50.79 a barrel, after falling 1.7 percent the previous session
Copper gained 0.6%, swinging from an 0.6% decline. Aluminum lost 0.2%, extending Tuesday’s drop. The metal will probably tumble next month as an “irrational” increase in prices prompts companies to restart plants, while new capacity also ramps up in the world’s largest supplier, according to China’s top metals industry group
Spot gold fell 0.2% to $1,167.51 an ounce

Currencies

The Australian dollar traded as low as 74.17 U.S. cents before paring its drop to 0.3%. The GDP report, which showed government spending fell and imports rose, spans a period when Australia’s election returned Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull with a razor-thin majority and government spending and resource exports failed to lift growth. The Reserve Bank of Australia on Tuesday kept interest rates unchanged and Governor Philip Lowe said “some slowing in the year-ended growth rate is likely.”
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, which tracks the greenback against 10 major peers, was little changed
The yen weakened 0.2% to 114.25 per dollar
[Bloomberg]

FTSE 100 Outlook and Prediction

FTSE 100 Prediction
FTSE 100 Prediction

We have a small one point dividend today so not likely to see a rush of buyers coming in towards the bell. We do however have a couple of key resistance levels that we are getting near. 6830 is the first one where we have a fib level and just above the top of the 10 day Raff. Above this the 20 day Bianca channel is 6845. I can see an initial dip form the 6830 area to test the 6800 where we might spring back up from. The Australian index had a fairly bullish session today so we may well do the same. If the bulls break 6845 then I can see a rise to 6915 where we have the daily coral line. The 2 hour chart is still bullish, though we didn’t get a perfect touch of the support yesterday at 6713, we did bounce slightly above that. Support today on that is 6744.

On the bearish side, if the bears manage to break 6800 then 6780 is the pivot, 6760 below that, then 6744. Generally it looks like it wants to push up today, negating the negative vibes from Monday. Fickle at the moment thats for sure!

14 Comments

  1. Unless the money is leaving the US and coming to Europe. Maybe the Trump rise is over now that US rates are about to rise. Just shorated Dow and S@P

      1. Seems to have held nicely, though with this trend, I’m not massively confident of the retest failing. Dax has given a bit of a reversal indicator on M5, but once again, not definitively downwards…
        Short from 10675 – target 10950

  2. I Need to rewire my brain again – I had it all set up in neutral – not long, not short, but now after a big loss shorting, I’m determined it must go down… I should speak to Si… 🙂
    Where is everyone – did everyone die on trump day? 😉

    1. nuts init!
      I mean I suppose the dow is allowed to go +2% on the day, so it could go a fair bit more!
      Haven’t seen such a trend for a while!

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