FTSE 100 Support 6766 6737 6719 6684
FTSE 100 Resistance 6796 6843 6865 6811 6913 6925

Good morning. Short equites and long gold worked well yesterday as pre election jitters continued to wobble the markets, along with a certain High Court ruling. Gold has fallen back a bit overnight though, while FTSE futures stabilised around the 6760 level. End of the week now, so think the bears will likely remain in control for a bit longer yet, however there is decent support between 2075 and 2085 on the SP so could be an interesting session if that area holds. The big news yesterday was that the High Court ruled that MPs must approve Article 50. Sounds like the establishment are now trying sneaky methods to remain in the EU as surely the point of the population voting is so that the Government then implement the result. Bizarre! In other news, UK PMI was 54.2, and the Brexit result saw the pound surge up to 124, fuelling the FTSE 100 declines as well. The BoE have scrapped plans for another rate cut in the meantime.

US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg

A global stocks selloff extended into Asian trading as crude oil held near a one-month low and investors shunned riskier assets ahead of next week’s U.S. presidential election.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was poised for its worst close in seven weeks and the S&P 500 Index is in its longest losing streak since 2008. The pound traded near a four-week high after the Bank of England said it no longer expects to cut interest rates this year and a court ruling threatened to disrupt the Brexit process. The yen and developed nations’ sovereign bonds were headed for their biggest weekly gains since July, having gained with gold on haven demand. Oil was set for its steepest weekly drop in nine months amid a glut.

Global stocks are at the tail end of their worst week since the run-up to Britain’s June vote to leave the European Union as opinion polls showed a dwindling lead for Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton before America votes on Tuesday. Gauges of expected volatility in equities and currencies have spiked, with Clinton — seen as the more predictable contender among investors — only just ahead of Republican rival Donald Trump in two surveys released Thursday.

“It seems like it’s too close to call,” said Ashley Perrott, head of Asian fixed-income at UBS Asset Management Ltd. in Singapore. “We’re relatively cautious. One thing markets are not particularly good at pricing is political risks.”

Stocks

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.9 percent as of 12:34 p.m. Tokyo time, with more than twice as many shares dropping as advanced. The Topix index sank by the most in three months as trading resumed in Japan following a holiday on Thursday.

Takata Corp. dropped to its lowest since May in Tokyo on renewed concern the Japanese air-bag supplier may file for bankruptcy protection for its U.S. unit. Mazda Motor Corp. tumbled by the most since June after the company cut its full-year profit forecast by 13 percent.

Futures on the S&P 500 Index rose 0.1 percent ahead of monthly American payrolls data due Friday that may influence the outlook for interest rates. U.S. shares fell in the last session as a New York Times/CBS poll found Clinton ahead 45 percent to Trump’s 42 percent among likely voters, down from a nine-point lead in the same poll in mid-October. A Washington Post/ABC News tracking poll, meanwhile, found Clinton ahead within the margin of error, 47 percent to 45 percent, having lost ground to Trump since last week.

“We are still in a very cautious mood ahead of the U.S. election,” said Alex Wong, who helps oversee about $100 million at Ample Capital Ltd. in Hong Kong. “People are reducing their exposure because they are afraid of a Trump win. That is a possibility but not a huge possibility.”

Currencies

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed on the day and set for a 0.8 percent weekly loss, having retreated as election concerns outweighed a pickup in speculation that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates next month. The central bank left policy unchanged at a review this week and signaled that a December rate hike was likely. The yen, euro and Swiss franc all strengthened more than 1 percent this week.

“The dollar is showing clear signs that investors are worried about a Trump win,” said Sean Callow, a senior strategist at Westpac Banking Corp. in Sydney. “The slide in the dollar against ultra-low-yielding currencies such as euro, yen and Swiss franc is evidence of a flight to safety, reversing a period of optimism where the dollar enjoyed the combination of stronger polling results for Clinton and not entirely coincidental positioning for a Fed hike in December.”

Sterling was on track for a 2.3 percent weekly bounce, its best performance in eight months. It jumped by the most since August on Thursday as BOE officials raised their forecasts for growth and inflation, and indicated concern that higher consumer prices may even warrant tightening policy at some point. The government said it would appeal a High Court ruling requiring it to hold a vote in Parliament before giving the EU official notice of the U.K.’s planned exit.China’s yuan dropped to a fresh low against a trade-weighted currency basket amid speculation policy makers are using recent dollar weakness to boost the competitiveness of the nation’s exporters. A Bloomberg replica of the CFETS RMB Index fell to the lowest level since the gauge was introduced in December.

New Zealand’s dollar was the best performer in the Asia-Pacific region this week, gaining 2.2 percent, the most since July, after strong jobs data damped the outlook for further policy easing by the central bank.

Commodities

Gold declined 0.3 percent, trimming this week’s advance to 1.9 percent. It touched $1,308.02 an ounce on Wednesday, the highest level in about a month.

“If Donald Trump is elected next week, we think gold can go anywhere shy of $1,400,” Wayne Gordon, executive director for commodities and foreign exchange at UBS Group AG’s wealth-management unit, said in a Bloomberg Television interview. “If Hillary Clinton is elected, we think gold can probably fall by $20, $30. So the clear skew in this trade is to the upside.”

Crude oil added 0.3 percent to $44.79 a barrel in New York. It has plunged 8 percent this week as the U.S. reported a record jump in its stockpiles. In addition, members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries who are claiming exemption from an agreement to limit supplies helped boost the group’s output to an all-time high last month.

Zinc retreated from a five-year high in London, while copper fell from its highest level since July. The LMEX Metals Index, which tracks six major base metals, rose to the most in more than 15 months on Thursday as investors bet that a rebound in demand from China, surging coal prices and logistics issues will underpin prices.

Bonds

Sovereign bonds in developed countries handed investors a 1.5 percent gain over the last four days, set for the best weekly return since July, a Bloomberg index shows. The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries fell five basis points this week to 1.80 percent, while the rate on similar-maturity debt in Japan declined 1 1/2 basis points to minus 0.065 percent.

The odds of a Fed rate increase by year-end rose to 78 percent on Thursday, the highest level since March, from 69 percent at the end of last week, futures contracts indicate. The U.S. employment report is forecast to show employers added 173,000 workers in October, versus 156,000 in September, according to a Bloomberg survey of economists.

“It will authorize the rate hike in December,” said Hiroki Shimazu, an economist and strategist at the Japanese unit of MCP Asset Management in Tokyo. “The U.S. economy continues to recover.” [Bloomberg]

FTSE 100 Outlook and Prediction

For today I am thinking a bit of a rise and dip again, possibly up to the 6811 area where we have the Hull moving average on the 2 hour chart. We nearly tested this line yesterday at 6880, the rise stopping at 6874 before turning down. We are at the bottom of the 10 day Bianca channel at 6766 first thing this morning so might see a bit of support here, and as mentioned the SP has bounced a bit off the top of its support range (2075 to 2085). Friday before a big week next week with the election, coupled with the Brexit fall out from yesterdays ruling, makes it a little trickier to call today – we are still in the sentiment driven state after all.

We have the daily pivot for initial resistance at 6796 which might halt any early rise to start with. Support wise, the 20 day Raff is 6737 so we may see some bulls come in here. Still looks weak really, shorting the rallies is still the best play, though watching 2075 SP and 6730 FTSE areas for support.