FTSE 100 looking bullish still | 6225 resistance 6050 support | Relief rally in Asia

FTSE 100 Support 6179 6129 6121 6043 6042 5968
FTSE 100 Resistance 6211 6213 6227 6277 6285

Good morning. Yesterday is being billed as Turnaround Tuesday – I don’t think many people expected us to see 6200 (after the bell) for a while.  Even though I was feeling bullish for yesterday I didn’t expect much more than 6160. The FTSE 100 stalled a bit at the 6155 level for the short, but only went slightly into profit before rising to 6170 and then falling to 6125. The rollercoaster ride continues so do be careful… I am still looking at a bullish 2 hour chart, with support at 6050ish for the moment.

US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg

  • EU leaders push U.K. to produce plan for leaving the bloc
  • BOJ’s Kuroda says funds can be added to market as needed

The relief rally endured, with Asian stocks and oil rising amid speculation policy makers will blunt the impact of the U.K.’s decision to leave the European Union with stimulus measures. Haven assets including gold and the yen advanced as the pound halted its rebound from a 31-year low.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained the most in a week and has now recovered about half of the loss recorded on Friday, when the outcome of Britain’s vote on EU membership became clear. U.S. and U.K. stock index futures rallied as crude oil climbed above $48 a barrel. Gold rose toward a two-year high, while nickel led a retreat in industrial metals. The pound was the only G-10 currency to lose ground against the dollar.

Investors are looking to central banks and governments for support as they await Britain’s plan for its extrication from the EU, something that’s being held back by political upheaval in the country following the vote and Prime Minister David Cameron’s resignation. South Korea announced a fiscal stimulus package on Tuesday and Bank of Japan chief Haruhiko Kuroda said Wednesday that more funds can be injected into the market should they be needed. Futures indicate the Federal Reserve is unlikely to raise interest rates before 2018.

“While central banks assuring investors they’re ready to support the markets helps sentiment, it may be too early to turn optimistic,” said James Woods, a strategist at Rivkin Securities in Sydney. “We’ll probably continue to see heavy volatility. We’ll have to see what unfolds in the U.K. with the political situation after Brexit.”

EU leaders will gather in Brussels on Wednesday for the second day of a two-day European Council summit to discuss Britain’s withdrawal from the bloc. Data are due on euro-area consumer confidence, U.S. personal spending and Argentina’s gross domestic product.

Stocks

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed 1.7 percent as of 1:05 p.m. Tokyo time. with benchmarks rallying across the region. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said Wednesday he will mobilize all possible measures to deflect the negative effects of the so-called Brexit vote.

“The panic selling in global markets has eased,” said Chihiro Ohta, a senior strategist with SMBC Nikko Securities Inc. in Tokyo. Wednesday’s meeting between Abe and the BOJ served as a “psychological anchor” for markets, but “we have to continue to be vigilant over the EU presidential decisions and currency intervention,” he said.

Japanese refiner Idemitsu Kosan Co. tumbled as much as 10 percent in Tokyo after descendants of its founder, who together hold a 33.9 percent stake, said they are opposed to a planned merger with Showa Shell Sekiyu KK that was announced in November. Showa Shell slid more than 3 percent.

Futures on the S&P 500 Index rose 0.2 percent after the U.S. benchmark jumped 1.8 percent in the last session, its best performance in almost four months. Contracts on the U.K.’s FTSE 100 were up 1.3 percent after the gauge rebounded 2.6 percent on Tuesday.

Currencies

The pound reverted to losses, slipping 0.1 percent to $1.3325. It rebounded 0.9 percent on Tuesday following a record 11 percent plunge over the previous two sessions, when it sank as low as $1.3121. The euro was little changed.

The yen rose 0.3 percent following a 0.7 percent decline on Tuesday. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, which tracks the greenback against 10 major peers, declined 0.1 percent, after retreating 0.5 percent in the last session. The New Zealand and Australian dollars — the highest-yielding G-10 currencies — gained at least 0.3 percent.

The yuan strengthened 0.2 percent in Hong Kong’s offshore market, gaining for the first time in a week amid speculation Chinese authorities were intervening to support the exchange rate. The currency was little changed near a five-year low in Shanghai, where it has weakened 3.1 percent since the end of March, set for the biggest quarterly loss in more than two decades.

South Korea’s won gained 0.7 percent, after surging 1 percent on Tuesday as the government announced a fiscal stimulus package of more than 20 trillion won ($17 billion). The ringgit strengthened 0.5 percent as the pickup in crude prices brightened prospects for Malaysia, Asia’s only major net oil exporter.

Turkey’s lira fell 0.1 percent, after surging 1.2 percent in the last session. Suicide bombers killed at least 36 people at Istanbul’s main international airport late on Tuesday.

Commodities

West Texas Intermediate crude climbed 0.7 percent to $48.19 a barrel, building on last session’s 3.3 percent jump. U.S. oil inventories fell by 3.86 million barrels last week, the American Petroleum Institute was said to have reported, ahead of government data due on Wednesday.

“The primary driver of the oil market is probably Brexit-related volatility at the moment,” said Ric Spooner, a chief analyst at CMC Markets in Sydney. “I don’t think the situation in Europe will make too much difference to the rebalancing that’s underway.”
Gold rose 0.5 percent, after slipping 1 percent last session. Nickel declined 0.8 percent in London and copper was down 0.5 percent.

Bonds

The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries was little changed at 1.47 percent. U.S. government debt has returned 5.5 percent so far this year, poised for the biggest back-to-back quarterly advance since 2011, a Bloomberg index shows. JPMorgan Chase & Co., Standard Chartered Plc, TD Securities Ltd. and Standard Bank Group Ltd. — the four firms that have updated their Treasury forecasts since the U.K.’s referendum — all see 10-year yields rising in the coming 12 months. “Treasury prices are too high,” said Enna Li, a debt investor in Taipei at Mirae Asset Global Investments Co., which oversees $83 billion worldwide. “I wouldn’t buy any. The U.S. economy is still fine.”

Japan’s 10-year bond yield was minus 0.225 percent, near the all-time low of minus 0.23 percent. Australia’s increased by three basis points to 2.03 percent, after sinking to a record 1.95 percent on Tuesday.

The cost of insuring corporate and sovereign bonds against nonpayment is set to fall for a second day in the Asia-Pacific region, according to credit-default swap traders. The Markit iTraxx Asia index was down three basis points at 144.5 in early trading in Hong Kong, Standard Chartered prices show. [Bloomberg]

FTSE 100 Outlook and Prediction

FTSE 100 Prediction
FTSE 100 Prediction

We are within a fairly decent looking 30min channel this morning, with resistance at the 6225 level and just above the R1 level at 6213 on live charts (IG R1 is at 6277). We had a bit of a dip back overnight to 6160 before bouncing back, though I think that we might well see a dip down to the pivot at 6130 today. There is also support on the 2 hour chart at 6043 currently, so if we see that its worth a long.

There is a small 1.1 dividend today (we have seen the last of the larger divi’s for a while now), and unlikely to bring the buyers out. As per yesterday, the charts are still looking bullish really so buying the dip (if we get a dip to the decent buying levels of course) is still looking like a good plan. So, dip down to the daily pivot and 200ema on the 30min at 6130ish is my buying level for today after an initial dip to close a bit of the overnight gap.

16 Comments

  1. Morning all,hope everyone has found something that suits them,I’ve been playing around with bank and mining shares and just booked a small profit,expecting the buy prices to be back around sooner rather than later.
    Someone might get something from this and what it covers
    http://www.bmogam.com/documents/Early-impressions-perspectives-on-BREXIT
    the US interest rate observation made me rethink a bit anyway.Back to my Bunker until US afternoon,have a good day.

  2. Message for Nick….I don’t know if anyone else is having problems accessing the site but I keep getting internal server error.”.maybe that’s why it’s quiet on the board….

  3. It seems to be working correctly for me now Nick…..don’t know why it was playing up earlier?

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