FTSE 100 7510 resistance | Fed rate rise | 2.5 divi | China data positive

14th June 2017

Interesting that we still managed to have a bear Tuesday even after Asia had put in a positive session, with the FTSE 100 failing to push higher than the 7550 level. Things turning weaker? We saw a slow decline down to the 7500 level and have stayed around there overnight. we have the Fed later on today with a rate increase largely expected. Since that’s widely anticipated, the more market-sensitive elements of the meeting will relate to signals on future policy – either the path for rates or plans to cut the $4.5 trillion balance sheet.

The ASX200 was bullish again today, though not as strongly as Tuesday, and that may well help the FTSE 100, however, the 2 hour chart is looking weaker with resistance at 7507, and the top of the 10 day Bianca is only at 7539 for today. With gold rising, and cable moving above 127 yesterday, the FTSE 100 is struggling a bit.

FTSE 100 Outlook and Prediction

Daily FTSE 100 Trend Channels
Daily FTSE 100 Trend Channels

For today I am thinking a bit of a dip and rise day. We have decent looking support at the 7462 level, and also resistance at the 7507 level. The bulls will need to be quick out the blocks this morning to break above the daily pivot at 7515, but with a bearish looking 30min and 2 hour chart I think we might see a bit of a dip first. The overnight action has been pretty flat, and we have seen bit of a rise in gold again.

Above 7515 then the bulls might well be able to push for the 7545 level, possibly the 7562 though they may well need some positive news to help them get that high. It looks a bit weaker now, with the 10 day channels heading down, however, we are only 100 points off the recent high so its not all doom and gloom.

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96 Comments

    1. Did you have a lower figure in mind? May I ask, would you resume arrows again at some point soon?

          5. Thanks Nick….appreciate that…I was thinking to take profit somewhere between 39 and 75 to get it banked…a bird in the hand etc..so 55 seems resonable and I can leave a bit for the big boys :0)

          7. That should be “reasonable” I’m thinking about the Ftse not what I’m typing…

  7. A little message for Jack………its a quote by Anthony Robbins…..

    “Success is not about your resources……it’s about how resourceful you are with what you have ”

    Good Luck buddy :0)

    1. Great phrase! I am starting slow again but hope to build up with time. What I shame I missed all morning: appointments in town. Now I am here and see that the rise has been missed. There’s no point to go long on it now.

      1. You could wait till later though and see if you could find a short position…Dax is pushing for 13000, maybe around there somewhere?

          1. No not joking….if Dax hits 13000 from here there should be a pullback and some profit taking I would have thought…should be a short somewhere up there..

          2. So when it hits then I will stop buying, simple. But shorting, I am sorry, I need more confirmations than just a number. I’ve learnt that hard way.

          3. Good point….the Dax doesn’t take prisoners that’s for sure…..it was just an idea :0)

  9. Hi all, my shorts ain’t looking to healthy. Both Dow and ftse -40 ish on both. decisions decisions mmmm.

  10. Short here at 7544. Resistance on the hourly and daily charts but would exit on a break above 7550/60 area and reassess post fed meeting. See sterling as being bullish medium term as a softer Brexit is priced in. A break of the 7480-7500 area could see a sharp drop. Expecting the break of the 7480-7550 trading range to be to the downside.

    Anstel – the website wouldn’t let me reply yesterday… no relation to the US hedge fund mcgcapital!

    2. Took a third off the table at 7495 and trailed the stop on the rest down to 7525. Let’s see what the fed brings… think we’re close to the break lower now.

  11. Well that little spike on cable has tried to put the cat among the pigeons but the Ftse held up quite well I thought…I think that’s a good case for the long side….could be wrong?

  13. Yo.

    Not posted yet as was holding breath ! Another lesson learnt!!!

    So looking ok again now closed some good shorts out and gold is rising.

    Just need no hike now for a hatrick of bad data !

  16. Anstel I won’t tell you how far in the hole I was…too many trades to smaller account.

    I needed this to almost go pear shaped to make me learn

    I could easily of been account broken by now – I was lucky!!

    1. Hi Morko just been to launderette to clean my underwear :0) they have two really long wash cycles and a long rinse..Just havin a grin,I should have taken 43 when it stared my in the face was looking for 50…. Oh well another mis judgement of strength….new plan added at 71…. Let’s have another go……

  17. Ps I do still have a long at 6544!!!

    Only small though so will either average it out or kill it if I take enough later

    1. No not now, once moved in to profit I moved my stop and it stopped me out. All that stress for a couple of points. Not my best trade. Trading can be psychologically draining sometimes.

  20. So guys what’s the verdict ?

    Sell off to 7400 or less

    Or

    Relief Rally to 7550 – 7575 and a cable sell off

    Answers on a postcard please :0)

  21. 7400 not this week. I have closed ftse shorts at 475. Will be looking to go long if we dip lower tomorrow morning. I think we will dip lower tomorrow.

        1. Closing the profit out is my biggest problem at the moment…it never quite meets my targets and I think I’m being more modest with my estimates but I’m still missing the mark…… I don’t want to close out as soon as I get blue after taking some heat……eventually I will nail it…

  23. This will go two ways.

    Rate rise = cable dump FTSE up

    Rate hold = Cable rise FTSE fall,
    along with Dow and every else accept gold which will rocket.

    I think a rate hold….too much bad data but then hey when has that dictated anything.

    GL, I will need it!!!

  24. Anstel you takin on the cable?

    Bloody tempting to short but I don’t have the margin or balls!

    1. Yeah I’m running a short swing trade looking for the 22s or less

      Well it’s been nice knowing you :0) it’s goin to hit the fan soon ….catch you on the flip side….hope I’m right here …no surrender….

  25. Not sure what the affect on Dow will be.

    I would say rate rise Dow fall but that doesn’t sound right even though I will be more expensive to borrow.

    But then no rate shows weakening economy so that should fall????

  26. That’s the problem you can provide an argument either way and so who knows. Complete gamble.

    3. Got out again. Fuf. I’m having a rest. Didn’t expect it would go underwater, I thought it would pump and pump. No more risk today.

    4. Got 2.50 quid on the last ordeal. heh. and it’s dropping. Still slightly down for today.

  31. I didn’t expect a 100 point drop on Dax, was trading long. I wish I was more favorable to me. Had a few trades today, all longs, but profits didn’t fall in. Was hoovering around b/e, what a day. Had stops, didn’t have stops. All helped.

    1. Do you sometimes have unprofitable days or you always win every day? Sometimes it happened to me that I edge backwards a bit. 26 quid, yes it’s annoying. I was only up 14 quid today and ended up losing. Planned for a 100.

      1. Hi Jack… Yes of course we all have losing days, anyone who says they don’t is probably lying.I don’t see it as losing I just see it as a set back ….the other thing I find is you increase you net equity for a period nicely…then you get stuck on a plateau and can’t seem to push past,eventually you push past though but it’s not very encouraging when you can’t get past a level…just gotta keep at it till you get back on an upward trajectory

    1. Have patience my friend. Dow will continue its journey down to 950. It’s just slow atm

    2. Look alright don’t they….bit light on tokens today :0) do they do em in Diesel :0)

      1. Good question. The one I have doesnt need fuel, just runs when my son pushed it forward 🙂

  35. Hey Jack, just out of curiosity why do you trade dax primarily? I have always struggled to understand it’s movements properly

    1. Yes. It offers a good spread on my platform and a bit more volatile than FTSE and slower than Dow. As to the patterns: they are everywhere the same. One significance about DAX: sometimes it’s sitting in levels when everything is moving but then suddenly it spikes and fast. So if you are not sitting in the level (flat channel) you may miss your chance.

  36. Well, that was interesting. Did a lot of gold trades and have bagged some cash but my p/l is now higher so even really.

    Could do with a 100pt drop in Dow!

  38. I just closed my FTSE long from 530.

    I think this the Dow will fall in afternoon session.

    Will buy in tonight – maybe

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