FTSE 100 7273 support for today. Can the bulls push above 7300? Trading help

25th September 2017
The main news over the weekend was of course the German election, with Merkel winning her fourth term, albeit with a smaller share of the vote. In echoes of the results in the UK, the previous coalition partners, the SDP, took a beating so she will need new partners, and there was a gain for a far-right party for the first time in 60 years. Meanwhile, Japan may do the opposite of the West and go for further stimulus, just as the US (and possibly the UK) look to start reducing theirs.

In terms of futures prices, the S&P has stayed around the 2500 level (actually hit 2507 overnight on that rise in Asia), while the FTSE 100 has stayed above 7300.

The war of words between North Korea and the U.S. continues to rumble on. At the UN on Saturday, North Korea foreign minister Ri Yong Ho said Trump – not Kim – is the one on a suicide mission, adding that the regime was prepared to strike first with nuclear weapons.

Will we get a bull Monday?


FTSE 100 Outlook and Prediction

FTSE 100 daily channels support and resistance
FTSE 100 daily channels support and resistance

For today I am thinking that we will get an initial rise towards the fib level at 7335 before a dip down to the main support at the 7273 area. The bulls might well defend this with a view to pushing back above the 7300 level. If the bulls can break the 7335 resistance area then it looks like they might be able to push the FTSE 100 up towards the top of the 20 day Raff channel at 7395. Be a fairly big task to break above that early this week but we may well see that later on, if they can build a bit of momentum.

On the flip side, the bears will be looking to drop this down below 7300 and test the 7200 area. There is initially support at the 7273 level this morning, and with a bull Monday prospect we may well see some buying here, though there is also a key fib slightly lower at 7242. Longs at both these levels with fairly tight stops might well catch a bounce.

So, watching 7335 for initial resistance and a rise, dip to 7273 then rise sort of day.

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24 Comments

  3. Looks bearish again. The price action is identical to 4/9/17. Fake break of 7440 pivot, move to 7460, dip, retest 7460 and down, then back to 7440, fail and sell off. This time it’s a fake break of 7300 pivot, move to 7320, dip, retest 7320 and down. Then have this as a move back to 7300 before selling off? Very tricky market, need to maintain discipline to stay on the right side. If it had the strength to be going back to 7400 it shouldn’t have sagged back under 7300 so soon. I’ve got no downside target here, maybe 7200, but bears in control of price once again

      1. For sure it is a bull flag but at a point where it might break down. If it retakes 1.35 the likelihood of breakdown probably evaporates.

  6. Ive said it here before. Brexit will never happen. That growing realisation shouuld strengthen stocks. At least 3 referenda have been overturned by the EU machine which of course is an anti-democratic entity. Britain is no different and the will of the majority will never see light of day until it resonates with the will of the elites.

    2. None of the other referendums resulted in article 50 being triggered. Conservatives and Labour have committed to going ahead with it and got more than 80% of the votes at the election. So how will we end up backing out of it now? Think it will drag on and on, going way beyond March 2019 now but still the end result is going to be an exit. Would be absolutely ridiculous to spend 5 years negotiating then have a second referendum and vote it down

      1. Labour will come to the next election promising a second ref.
        Art 50 trigger wont matter as both EU and UK leaders will be hellbent on remain.
        Rules dont apply here and who cares about years of negotiation? Forgotten in a heartbeat.

  7. CM and Mcg ….this bull flag you mention is on the Daily chart isn’t it ….???Just trying to learn abit more about patterns thanks…..

    2. Yeah it is.. have to favour longs with stops below the flag if I was trading it. Think the takeaways from the last few weeks are 1. They will look to push the base rate to 0.5% in the next few months 2. Brexit is still on as things stand but it’s been pushed back with transitional arrangements. Both of these things are sterling positive so have to favour them unwinding some of the risk premia that’s been priced in since last June

      1. I’ve just been researching the bull flag pattern on stock charts……it states that if the consolidation period continues into the 8 to 12 week period after the initial bullish climb or the flag pole part of the pattern…then the bullish flag pattern is less dependable…..I would have thought we will stay in the area 50 either side of 1.35 for the time being….which will keep Ftse down “…..how far I’m not sure but sub 7200 I think then a sell off on cable to fuel a Santa rally on Ftse in a couple of months or so….the time period is about right….just an opinion that’s all…

        1. You can have a bull flag on any timeframe.. they’re probably looking at a weekly chart when saying that. So on the daily would have to substitute in 8-12 days rather than weeks. We’re on day 8 now so have to see which way the $1.345-1.36 range breaks. With the pattern on the chart I’d bet on up but switch short if it breaks down

          2. It will be interesting to see how the 8-12 periods works out…and whether cable does retreat….I think for the Ftse to regain 7400 cable will need to sell off… Time will tell but interesting to observe ….

  8. So Brexit happened last year both FTSE & Sterling fell out of bed initially then people reasoned that low sterling was good for the FTSE which has been bought up steadily from low 6000s to mid 7000s over the past 12 months. Today FTSE is still in the 7200+ region and Sterling is back near levels pre Brexit. So now buying FTSE is the idea because Brexit won’t happen? Go figure……not saying anyone is wrong(although someone ultimately has to be) but surely the two arguments are contradictory. I was short last Thursday at 7285 and it looked good overnight until I got stopped out at 7267 when we had nearly a 100 point move from 7233 to 7323 on what ………stocks will trade down when rates tighten & QE is siphoned out and to me the rhetoric from CBs is pointing that way. I am not saying a 30-40% crash but I don’t think 7000 is an unreasonable prediction for FTSE and possibly 6800.

    1. Where else can money get a return? Inflation destroys cash and interest rates in UK will never keep place with inflation in the medium term. Alot of wealth still has to find a home. Bonds and property are rubbish both producing real negative returns. As is cash. That leaves one major asset class left and explains its failure to fall meaningfully from record highs.

    2. The problem with trading a longer view at the moment is the volatility is too low and trading ranges are too tight. I think 7600 could have been it for this bull market but it makes more sense to play the smaller moves until something happens. Looking for a 5% correction in the US before I can begin to look for a long term top as usually it’s a process and we don’t go from this kind of price action to a bear market overnight. Sterling for me is a side issue.. most of the move over the last 18 months has been multiple expansion with some earnings growth. It’s a bubble in sentiment led by wealthy Americans who think they’re getting a big tax cut. Longer term shorts will only start to look interesting if we get a correction and the subsequent rally back towards the highs fails. That will probably take months to play out though so might be a 2018 story

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