FTSE 100 7261 resistance intact | Apple disappoints | Short the rallies

3rd May 2017

Good morning. The 7212 level held perfectly yesterday, typically missing our long order by 0.3 points, before rising throughout the day to test the resistance we had at 7261 after hours. Its now dropped back from that level overnight, and is once again testing the 200ema on the 30min. Wasn’t so much bear Tuesday yesterday though!

Apple reported an unexpected decline in iPhone sales on Tuesday night, although its profits rose slightly as it managed to sell more expensive versions of its smartphone. The figures fell slightly short of Wall Street expectations. Apple, which reported its first ever decline in iPhone sales last year, had returned to growth three months ago and analysts had expected a second straight quarter of improving sales. Revenues in the period were up by $2.3bn to $52.9bn (£40.9bn), while profits increased by $513m to $11bn.

If the bears can break 7223 then we may well be on for a move lower, and the bears will be buoyed by the fact that the 7261 level has remained as resistance. Above this then 7331 is the next level of resistance to look for.

FTSE 100 Outlook and Prediction

FTSE 100 Prediction
FTSE 100 Prediction

In light of the fact that the ASX200 had a pretty bearish Wednesday session, and the FTSE has dropped off the 7261 resistance level we had for yesterday I have gone for a more bearish day today, with a decline to the fib level at 7197. If the bears were able to break below this then we may well be on a path towards 7100. The Dax however was fairly bullish yesterday, and managed to climb above 12500 as reports reckoned that a Macron win still wasn’t fully priced in. Obviously we have the second part of the French election coming up on the 7th.

Resistance wise today we have 7244 initially with the daily pivot then yesterdays high at the 7261 level. Above this a fib pivot at 7292 is probably worth a short as well, as we also have R2 here.

If the bears do go for it, then 7223 is the first support area of note, with 7197 below that where again we have a fib level. S2 is at 7189 as well. The daily chart is still bearish, though the 2 hour is still bullish for the moment. Gold has dropped off a bit recently, testing 1255 currently, and off its recent high at 1300. Cable (GBP/USD rate) is also one to watch in relation to the FTSE, and that has dropped back to 129, having risen fairly strongly yesterday to test 12950. That fall back is helping to support the FTSE at the moment.

So, watching the resistance at 7250ish to start with, with 7292 above that. Support 7197.

25 Comments

    1. Bit of a drop off from (typically) just below the 7250!

      The 2 hour support at 7224 has held so far – if bears break that then 7198 looks likely

          1. No I didn’t Nick I’m holding because I believed it had a little more to go….can’t win them all…still holding though my view is still the same….

  2. Nursing a winner on spx. I am nearly 4 points in blue atm. Another 12 points please!
    Ftse is just on a low volume retrace so is prone 5o drop any moment. We should get a proper rally hopefully next week after French elections.

  4. I have to admit today’s movements on the ftse particularly the last one hour had changed my view on ftse. 7220 appears attractive for longs as long as it holds and the target should be around 7260.

  5. This is due to the presence of strong divergence in the 15 min. However since this is a lower timeframe than I would normally look for confirmation, and we are 15 mins away from close I would give it a pass. More importantly, the presence of good divergence in lower timeframe generally indicates that it will develop on higher timeframes very soon which should take the rally up to my target zone of ~7360

  6. It’s getting to your 7225, anstel. Seems running out of steam. I didn’t have a good couple of days, tried to short. Yesterday silly short 12484 (av. in the end) was left overnight and closed 1505, I couldn’t happen to wait for it any longer. Morning Long 12481 didn’t hold, spooked. Short 12505, then short 12510, 12520 wasn’t amazing but managed to scrape the wins when it dropped to cover the losses and came up on top winning a few for yesterday. Phew, long 12507 just now worked out well, finally some feel of the right direction but already closed.
    Applied for a full time job, if I get it, goodbye markets.

      1. Fingers crossed. Thank you, Senu. I am very pleased to hear from you. How are you doing? I hope everything is good. 🙂

    3. Hi Jack,I have just read your post,been out this evening.i took that long about 10am and nursed it all day till I got out at 31.8 and what does it do,lol right up to 54 grrrrr…..that’s pretty much what I thought originally ….so muggins here decides to try some treatment for my PTSD….post traumatic short disorder :0) I thought I’d try a short around 44 but small and it didn’t want to know so I dumped it ….ended up with a very small loss on the day…but it just wasn’t my day and there’s no harm in taking small losses it’s the big ones that hurt….had a great day yday so I’m nicely up on the week so far but I’m thinking about the margin increase tomorrow next….goodnight Jack and good luck….

      1. Hey Senu how you doin buddy? Great to see you on here again :0) catch up tomorrow…..The boys are back in town lol….come on tmfp and WSF lets have you guys back on here :0) the more the merrier :0)….

        1. Hey Jack you can’t give up trading buddy every failure is one step closer to success :0) I must be pretty close to success now:0) I’m running out of new mistakes to make :0)….

  9. Reckon alot of good news built into stocks. Predict not much left for a post-french election rally. No interest in owning them over next couple of months although there was a FTSE bullish engulfing candle a few days ago signifying strength.
    Im long gold from 1262, a third of capital was deployed so waiting for next buy signal to add another third.
    Must be a nice hammer candle off clear support and will observe SL on next addition, thats just good MM.
    Seasonally not best time to buy gold but I dont think we will get a dull Summer this ysar with Trump at the helm.

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