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30th November 2017
Quote from
Nick on 30th November 2017, 7:59 am
Todays market discussion
Today's Post here
Todays market discussion
Today's Post here
Quote from
Mcgcapital on 30th November 2017, 10:09 am
Same play as yesterday.. 5 min is showing support at 7360 so long there and looking for a gap close attempt. Then probably look for shorts in the 7380-90 area. Managed to get a short on at 7440 yesterday and that ran way further than expected. Does look like we're going to get a trip to 7300 next week before year end rally time
Same play as yesterday.. 5 min is showing support at 7360 so long there and looking for a gap close attempt. Then probably look for shorts in the 7380-90 area. Managed to get a short on at 7440 yesterday and that ran way further than expected. Does look like we're going to get a trip to 7300 next week before year end rally time
Pound has a gap to fill to 1.36 so I wont buy FTSE until I see that hit and reversed, I have mentioned previously the strengthening pound is making life difficult for longs on FTSE and rises are now short -term stop-hunting games. Equally given the time of year, shorting is not much fun either, so I will stay out until pound reverses.
Not much of interest elsewhere apart from gold priced in pounds which is just above major support of 950 and I might attempt to play that support, although gold in dollars has further to fall .
Pound has a gap to fill to 1.36 so I wont buy FTSE until I see that hit and reversed, I have mentioned previously the strengthening pound is making life difficult for longs on FTSE and rises are now short -term stop-hunting games. Equally given the time of year, shorting is not much fun either, so I will stay out until pound reverses.
Not much of interest elsewhere apart from gold priced in pounds which is just above major support of 950 and I might attempt to play that support, although gold in dollars has further to fall .
Quote from
Mcgcapital on 30th November 2017, 11:34 am
Quote from
Mcgcapital on 30th November 2017, 10:09 am
Same play as yesterday.. 5 min is showing support at 7360 so long there and looking for a gap close attempt. Then probably look for shorts in the 7380-90 area. Managed to get a short on at 7440 yesterday and that ran way further than expected. Does look like we're going to get a trip to 7300 next week before year end rally time
Out of longs at 7386.. probably a short now
Quote from
Mcgcapital on 30th November 2017, 10:09 am
Same play as yesterday.. 5 min is showing support at 7360 so long there and looking for a gap close attempt. Then probably look for shorts in the 7380-90 area. Managed to get a short on at 7440 yesterday and that ran way further than expected. Does look like we're going to get a trip to 7300 next week before year end rally time
Out of longs at 7386.. probably a short now
Quote from
Mcgcapital on 30th November 2017, 11:48 am
No candlestick set up for the sell yet but don't think this holds
No candlestick set up for the sell yet but don't think this holds
Quote from
Mcgcapital on 30th November 2017, 11:56 am
Quote from
Mcgcapital on 30th November 2017, 11:48 am
No candlestick set up for the sell yet but don't think this holds
In now at 7412.. 10 stop
Quote from
Mcgcapital on 30th November 2017, 11:48 am
No candlestick set up for the sell yet but don't think this holds
In now at 7412.. 10 stop
Quote from
Mcgcapital on 30th November 2017, 1:14 pm
Quote from
Mcgcapital on 30th November 2017, 11:56 am
Quote from
Mcgcapital on 30th November 2017, 11:48 am
No candlestick set up for the sell yet but don't think this holds
In now at 7412.. 10 stop
Half off at 93.. stop to be. Can't hold stuff too long in this market. It's trending down but there are so many very aggressive counter trend rallies
Quote from
Mcgcapital on 30th November 2017, 11:56 am
Quote from
Mcgcapital on 30th November 2017, 11:48 am
No candlestick set up for the sell yet but don't think this holds
In now at 7412.. 10 stop
Half off at 93.. stop to be. Can't hold stuff too long in this market. It's trending down but there are so many very aggressive counter trend rallies
At some point they will announce outline agreement over the irish border and the pound will surge.
So personally I think its safer to be long the pound over next couple of weeks.
At some point they will announce outline agreement over the irish border and the pound will surge.
So personally I think its safer to be long the pound over next couple of weeks.
Quote from
Mcgcapital on 30th November 2017, 2:04 pm
Can't believe Dow is 24k.. hope Icarus is ok, it's a complete joke
Can't believe Dow is 24k.. hope Icarus is ok, it's a complete joke
Quote from
icarus on 30th November 2017, 2:19 pm
Hanging in there. Extended fifth unfortunately.
Have a holiday planned shortly so need some movement favourably pretty soon
Hanging in there. Extended fifth unfortunately.
Have a holiday planned shortly so need some movement favourably pretty soon
Quote from
anstel on 30th November 2017, 2:20 pm
Two ways to look at it I suppose....either the Ftse is lagging the Dow and Dax....and it's going to catch up...or the dow with sell off and pull the lot down....the way the different indices are made up doesn't make it any easier and on top of that we have cable.......tell me again why I'm doing this because sometimes i forget.....Feel Sorry for Icarus...he's had some pressure...
Two ways to look at it I suppose....either the Ftse is lagging the Dow and Dax....and it's going to catch up...or the dow with sell off and pull the lot down....the way the different indices are made up doesn't make it any easier and on top of that we have cable.......tell me again why I'm doing this because sometimes i forget.....Feel Sorry for Icarus...he's had some pressure...
Quote from
anstel on 30th November 2017, 2:31 pm
New month tomorrow ?
New month tomorrow ?
Quote from
Mcgcapital on 30th November 2017, 2:53 pm
Quote from
anstel on 30th November 2017, 2:20 pm
Two ways to look at it I suppose....either the Ftse is lagging the Dow and Dax....and it's going to catch up...or the dow with sell off and pull the lot down....the way the different indices are made up doesn't make it any easier and on top of that we have cable.......tell me again why I'm doing this because sometimes i forget.....Feel Sorry for Icarus...he's had some pressure...
I used to look at the correlations more and felt like there was some value to it, but in these conditions I think if you're trading FTSE it's best just to ignore the others as it's a major distraction. The Dow is going up on the tax reform as it has all year. The reality probably won't be as good as what's been priced in but there's not much you can do to fight the trend. It will probably end with a huge reversal. Since FTSE sold off from the highs a few weeks ago the moves off 7350-60 have all looked corrective as there have always been massive overlaps. At some point we will get a rally like we had in October where it straight lines for a few hundred points. But as CM says, there's a spike in Sterling probably coming so that will keep FTSE under pressure. I'm thinking we'll have a couple more weeks of chop then rally from 7300-7540ish last two weeks of December. In the meantime need to keep trades on a tight leash in both directions. There's also the oil meeting coming up and if Russia don't agree to extending the output cuts there could be carnage there given expectations. In fact if that happens I can see FTSE at 7200 in the next couple of weeks. So basically think it's too early to be all in long here for the Xmas rally as the risk it doesn't come yet is too high. December 2013, 2014 and 2015 show that if anything there can often be a very big drop start of December before the rally kicks in
Quote from
anstel on 30th November 2017, 2:20 pm
Two ways to look at it I suppose....either the Ftse is lagging the Dow and Dax....and it's going to catch up...or the dow with sell off and pull the lot down....the way the different indices are made up doesn't make it any easier and on top of that we have cable.......tell me again why I'm doing this because sometimes i forget.....Feel Sorry for Icarus...he's had some pressure...
I used to look at the correlations more and felt like there was some value to it, but in these conditions I think if you're trading FTSE it's best just to ignore the others as it's a major distraction. The Dow is going up on the tax reform as it has all year. The reality probably won't be as good as what's been priced in but there's not much you can do to fight the trend. It will probably end with a huge reversal. Since FTSE sold off from the highs a few weeks ago the moves off 7350-60 have all looked corrective as there have always been massive overlaps. At some point we will get a rally like we had in October where it straight lines for a few hundred points. But as CM says, there's a spike in Sterling probably coming so that will keep FTSE under pressure. I'm thinking we'll have a couple more weeks of chop then rally from 7300-7540ish last two weeks of December. In the meantime need to keep trades on a tight leash in both directions. There's also the oil meeting coming up and if Russia don't agree to extending the output cuts there could be carnage there given expectations. In fact if that happens I can see FTSE at 7200 in the next couple of weeks. So basically think it's too early to be all in long here for the Xmas rally as the risk it doesn't come yet is too high. December 2013, 2014 and 2015 show that if anything there can often be a very big drop start of December before the rally kicks in
Quote from
anstel on 30th November 2017, 3:04 pm
Quote from
Mcgcapital on 30th November 2017, 2:53 pm
Quote from
anstel on 30th November 2017, 2:20 pm
Two ways to look at it I suppose....either the Ftse is lagging the Dow and Dax....and it's going to catch up...or the dow with sell off and pull the lot down....the way the different indices are made up doesn't make it any easier and on top of that we have cable.......tell me again why I'm doing this because sometimes i forget.....Feel Sorry for Icarus...he's had some pressure...
I used to look at the correlations more and felt like there was some value to it, but in these conditions I think if you're trading FTSE it's best just to ignore the others as it's a major distraction. The Dow is going up on the tax reform as it has all year. The reality probably won't be as good as what's been priced in but there's not much you can do to fight the trend. It will probably end with a huge reversal. Since FTSE sold off from the highs a few weeks ago the moves off 7350-60 have all looked corrective as there have always been massive overlaps. At some point we will get a rally like we had in October where it straight lines for a few hundred points. But as CM says, there's a spike in Sterling probably coming so that will keep FTSE under pressure. I'm thinking we'll have a couple more weeks of chop then rally from 7300-7540ish last two weeks of December. In the meantime need to keep trades on a tight leash in both directions. There's also the oil meeting coming up and if Russia don't agree to extending the output cuts there could be carnage there given expectations. In fact if that happens I can see FTSE at 7200 in the next couple of weeks. So basically think it's too early to be all in long here for the Xmas rally as the risk it doesn't come yet is too high. December 2013, 2014 and 2015 show that if anything there can often be a very big drop start of December before the rally kicks in
Thanks Mcg....none of the moves hold as you have mentioned.....its a very difficult environment with these aggressive swings....
Quote from
Mcgcapital on 30th November 2017, 2:53 pm
Quote from
anstel on 30th November 2017, 2:20 pm
Two ways to look at it I suppose....either the Ftse is lagging the Dow and Dax....and it's going to catch up...or the dow with sell off and pull the lot down....the way the different indices are made up doesn't make it any easier and on top of that we have cable.......tell me again why I'm doing this because sometimes i forget.....Feel Sorry for Icarus...he's had some pressure...
I used to look at the correlations more and felt like there was some value to it, but in these conditions I think if you're trading FTSE it's best just to ignore the others as it's a major distraction. The Dow is going up on the tax reform as it has all year. The reality probably won't be as good as what's been priced in but there's not much you can do to fight the trend. It will probably end with a huge reversal. Since FTSE sold off from the highs a few weeks ago the moves off 7350-60 have all looked corrective as there have always been massive overlaps. At some point we will get a rally like we had in October where it straight lines for a few hundred points. But as CM says, there's a spike in Sterling probably coming so that will keep FTSE under pressure. I'm thinking we'll have a couple more weeks of chop then rally from 7300-7540ish last two weeks of December. In the meantime need to keep trades on a tight leash in both directions. There's also the oil meeting coming up and if Russia don't agree to extending the output cuts there could be carnage there given expectations. In fact if that happens I can see FTSE at 7200 in the next couple of weeks. So basically think it's too early to be all in long here for the Xmas rally as the risk it doesn't come yet is too high. December 2013, 2014 and 2015 show that if anything there can often be a very big drop start of December before the rally kicks in
Thanks Mcg....none of the moves hold as you have mentioned.....its a very difficult environment with these aggressive swings....
Quote from
Mcgcapital on 30th November 2017, 3:14 pm
Quote from
Mcgcapital on 30th November 2017, 1:14 pm
Quote from
Mcgcapital on 30th November 2017, 11:56 am
Quote from
Mcgcapital on 30th November 2017, 11:48 am
No candlestick set up for the sell yet but don't think this holds
In now at 7412.. 10 stop
Half off at 93.. stop to be. Can't hold stuff too long in this market. It's trending down but there are so many very aggressive counter trend rallies
Out the rest at 75.. gym time. Let's see what sets up for tomorrow, at the min I'm thinking more chop in the trading range
Quote from
Mcgcapital on 30th November 2017, 1:14 pm
Quote from
Mcgcapital on 30th November 2017, 11:56 am
Quote from
Mcgcapital on 30th November 2017, 11:48 am
No candlestick set up for the sell yet but don't think this holds
In now at 7412.. 10 stop
Half off at 93.. stop to be. Can't hold stuff too long in this market. It's trending down but there are so many very aggressive counter trend rallies
Out the rest at 75.. gym time. Let's see what sets up for tomorrow, at the min I'm thinking more chop in the trading range
CM pleased with analysis, the strong pound making life tricky for sterling investors but its OK watching cash appreciate in value while your target falls.
The santa rally often starts around 20th December so plenty of time for further falls on FTSE.
New month tomorrow which normally I play by going long the day before but not this time, in fact tomorrow an early jump likely to be a good shorting opportunity.
I have mentioned the weak dollar a few times recently and note the prevailing conditions...a weak dollar on its next leg down....plus a pound looking to go up on political news = bad news for FTSE, I might short it tomorrow.
CM pleased with analysis, the strong pound making life tricky for sterling investors but its OK watching cash appreciate in value while your target falls.
The santa rally often starts around 20th December so plenty of time for further falls on FTSE.
New month tomorrow which normally I play by going long the day before but not this time, in fact tomorrow an early jump likely to be a good shorting opportunity.
I have mentioned the weak dollar a few times recently and note the prevailing conditions...a weak dollar on its next leg down....plus a pound looking to go up on political news = bad news for FTSE, I might short it tomorrow.
In fact looking at chart develop I will start shorting from 7349, 1/3 capital and will add on a bounce tomorrow.
In fact looking at chart develop I will start shorting from 7349, 1/3 capital and will add on a bounce tomorrow.
I think the arse is about to fall out of FTSE.
I think the arse is about to fall out of FTSE.
Quote from
Jack 2 on 30th November 2017, 5:51 pm
Not only simple plan today, Nick, but also very profitable. Really good job today.
I wasn't in today having my Christmas Garden Center lunch 🙂
Not only simple plan today, Nick, but also very profitable. Really good job today.
I wasn't in today having my Christmas Garden Center lunch 🙂
Quote from
Mcgcapital on 30th November 2017, 6:06 pm
Long from 7325 now.. oversold rally in the morning to sell I think. 7300 is a major support too so probably going to hold first time. Can't believe the divergence with the US, making it tricky. Plus Sterling is heading into resistance. US will pullback I think soon so we could see 7200 before xmas rally
Long from 7325 now.. oversold rally in the morning to sell I think. 7300 is a major support too so probably going to hold first time. Can't believe the divergence with the US, making it tricky. Plus Sterling is heading into resistance. US will pullback I think soon so we could see 7200 before xmas rally
Quote from
Nick on 30th November 2017, 6:16 pm
Just going to put this bitcoin chart here......
Those who forget the lessons of history are doomed to repeat it
Just going to put this bitcoin chart here......
Those who forget the lessons of history are doomed to repeat it
Quote from
Mcgcapital on 30th November 2017, 6:22 pm
Quote from
Nick on 30th November 2017, 6:16 pm
Just going to put this bitcoin chart here......
Those who forget the lessons of history are doomed to repeat it
Lol looks like the Dow.. more I see it the more I think there's a huge tank coming next year, what a blowoff
Quote from
Nick on 30th November 2017, 6:16 pm
Just going to put this bitcoin chart here......
Those who forget the lessons of history are doomed to repeat it
Lol looks like the Dow.. more I see it the more I think there's a huge tank coming next year, what a blowoff
it will revert to zero, which is what its worth. Apparently crypto-wallets have all been hacked and robbed, it just isnt sufficiently robust to be used plus it has nothing backing it except scarcity and cost of mining coins. So I refuse to buy.
But could bitcoin go to a million? Yes. If it gains some sort of revered status among the wealthy it may even become necessary for forex exchanges to hold it ie convert some % of their global currencies to bitcoin. If the rich and connected really back it this could become a legal requirement in many jurisdictions. once the rich have cornered the market.
But more likely it will simply be criminalised and prosecuted for the criminals dream it is, although be aware the FBI can track wallets and transactions just as TOR is now totally compromised and tracked, every exit node on TOR is monitored and there is no longer anonymity.
it will revert to zero, which is what its worth. Apparently crypto-wallets have all been hacked and robbed, it just isnt sufficiently robust to be used plus it has nothing backing it except scarcity and cost of mining coins. So I refuse to buy.
But could bitcoin go to a million? Yes. If it gains some sort of revered status among the wealthy it may even become necessary for forex exchanges to hold it ie convert some % of their global currencies to bitcoin. If the rich and connected really back it this could become a legal requirement in many jurisdictions. once the rich have cornered the market.
But more likely it will simply be criminalised and prosecuted for the criminals dream it is, although be aware the FBI can track wallets and transactions just as TOR is now totally compromised and tracked, every exit node on TOR is monitored and there is no longer anonymity.
Quote from
roltrader on 30th November 2017, 6:40 pm
25,000 BY THE 25TH
25,000 BY THE 25TH
Gold in sterling collapsed through support today and next stop is 936, failing which 910. I reckon the FTSE chart will catch up with that one soon.
Gold in sterling collapsed through support today and next stop is 936, failing which 910. I reckon the FTSE chart will catch up with that one soon.
Quote from
icarus on 30th November 2017, 6:54 pm
Quote from
roltrader on 30th November 2017, 6:40 pm
25,000 BY THE 25TH
By the looks of it. Tomorrow!
Ffs....
Quote from
roltrader on 30th November 2017, 6:40 pm
25,000 BY THE 25TH
By the looks of it. Tomorrow!
Ffs....
Quote from
icarus on 30th November 2017, 6:57 pm
Quote from
Nick on 30th November 2017, 6:16 pm
Just going to put this bitcoin chart here......
Those who forget the lessons of history are doomed to repeat it
Applies to the curent dow rally as well
Quote from
Nick on 30th November 2017, 6:16 pm
Just going to put this bitcoin chart here......
Those who forget the lessons of history are doomed to repeat it
Applies to the curent dow rally as well
Quote from
roltrader on 30th November 2017, 7:28 pm
I feel for you icarus. Hope you have reduced your position. I have been selling into this rally all day, that's painful enough
I feel for you icarus. Hope you have reduced your position. I have been selling into this rally all day, that's painful enough
Quote from
anstel on 30th November 2017, 7:51 pm
I'm not happy with FTSE I'm flat....collapse?
I'm not happy with FTSE I'm flat....collapse?
Quote from
Mcgcapital on 30th November 2017, 7:58 pm
Quote from
Mcgcapital on 30th November 2017, 6:06 pm
Long from 7325 now.. oversold rally in the morning to sell I think. 7300 is a major support too so probably going to hold first time. Can't believe the divergence with the US, making it tricky. Plus Sterling is heading into resistance. US will pullback I think soon so we could see 7200 before xmas rally
Stopped at be.. in again off 7310 area. If it doesn't hold 7290-300 then 7200 looks a dead cert. Think that comes but a rally to relieve oversold first
Quote from
Mcgcapital on 30th November 2017, 6:06 pm
Long from 7325 now.. oversold rally in the morning to sell I think. 7300 is a major support too so probably going to hold first time. Can't believe the divergence with the US, making it tricky. Plus Sterling is heading into resistance. US will pullback I think soon so we could see 7200 before xmas rally
Stopped at be.. in again off 7310 area. If it doesn't hold 7290-300 then 7200 looks a dead cert. Think that comes but a rally to relieve oversold first
