Fed raises rates 0.25% | BOE to hold at 0.25% | Bullish reaction 7440 resistance

16th March 2017

Good morning. After all the build up the Fed delivered a 0.25% rate rise as expected, and everything turned into a sea of green – pretty much all markets rose, which helped the Dax and gold longs that we had on. Gold has surprised though by continuing the rise overnight and is now at 1226 – didn’t expect it to rise so strongly., especially as indices were also rising. Stocks rose and bond yields fell as investors viewed the statement from the Federal Open Market Committee and Yellen’s remarks afterward as a sign that the Fed isn’t in a hurry to remove monetary stimulus. The FOMC raised the target range for the federal funds rate to 0.75 percent to 1 percent, as expected, but Yellen’s lack of urgency to snuff out inflation was a surprise.

Speaking to reporters after the Fed’s quarter percentage-point move on Wednesday, Yellen said the central bank was willing to tolerate inflation temporarily overshootingits 2 percent goal and that it intended to keep its policy accommodative for “some time.”

“The simple message is the economy’s doing well. We have confidence in the robustness of the economy and its resilience to shocks,” she said.

FTSE 100 Outlook and Prediction

FTSE 100 Daily channels
FTSE 100 Daily channels

It will be interesting to see how today unfolds after that news and out of hours rise last night. The first level of resistance is at X where we have a fib level. So we might see some stalling here and then a dip down to partially (or fully!) close the gap from yesterdays close. Resistance above here ranges from X to X so this whole area might see a bit of profit taking/speculative shorts, though of course they are still against the prevailing trend which is, of course, bullish. Above X we are looking at X and then a cluster of levels around X on the daily chart – a level that might temper the current rises.

On the support side of the coin today, we have X initially, on both the 2 hour Hull moving average and the daily pivot at X, whilst below this X and an outside chance of X. Generally though I expect the day to be bullish as the initial reaction to the rate rise was positive, and so that sentiment should continue for a bit longer, as the US powerhouse does well, generally the rest of the world follows.

We have our rate decision being announced by the BoE at midday – expected to remain at 0.25%.

You are probably wondering why I have XXXX instead of numbers. Unfortunately people are copying this content and passing it off as their own. As that’s not fair on members who are paying for this content I wont be publicly posting my levels of interest for the moment.

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83 Comments

          1. It’s a beautiful day,really nice,think I will go for a walk…good luck all,back later….

  2. Reaction pretty much as expected including long gold 🙂 at least now we can break out in stocks or maybe get a good short signal.

  3. My collection of longs across the indices are happily back in blue, after spending much of the consolidation underwater. Stops now at breakeven. They have to my mind broken out nicely from the consolidation, and the tech 100 to new highs. The gap is certainly an issue.

    It seems from that conference that the issue of the number of rate rises for this year has been settled. That’s one concern out of the way for stocks, and unless oil takes off, inflation is likely to calm a bit in the coming months.

    Question i have is what now do we do with the dollar? There has obviously been a quick unwind of longs banking on steeper hike this year. Is that dusted? I’m short cable, which i think will come good in time. Also long against yen which has taken a bit of a knock back and not quite sure what to do with it.

  4. BoE is not going to raise rates any time soon so agree continued GBP weakness, implying good outlook for FTSE and other stock markets. As long as FTSE doesnt pull back today or tomorrow, I am looking for long entry target 7700.

        1. For those that remember him Si would be short now probably something like a grand a point….oh the good old days :0)

          2. It’s my age Nick lol :0) when I was a lad and all that hee hee……well might as well have some fun :0)

  6. Hi, everyone. I have to tell you about my ordeal yesterday otherwise people won’t learn. OK, I was really double biased before the Fed but I don’t even know why I decided to trade, I usually avoid EVENING news. Well, I felt something was going to be wrong and it was.
    I misjudged and pressed short 11910 and lost 20 points in 1 minute. I was upset of course as this was supposed to be a little punt. So I entered short 12037.3 and closed half at 12026 as I see now and left the rest thinking it will go down to 12000. It clearly wasn’t going right by 19.30 but I decided just to leave it as I had work to do for half an hour. Now just imagine how disappointed I was when I checked at 20.05. Till 20.30 I was watching a little pull back hoping it will drop to 44 (I added a half stake at 12059.6 but it clearly didn’t want to drop)
    What would you do? I had 20 point loss at that time…
    I closed the top trade just before 21.00 with a few points profit, the remainder got frozen till 22.00
    When it opened at 22.00 I had a dreadful spread and was losing extra 10 points on it. But I closed it.
    Imagine I would have woken up today with 143 points loss at some point, even with half stake it is a lot of money.
    So the first thing I did this morning: withdrew half the money which I would have lost this night and started fresh. Had long 12127 for 10 points.
    Conclusion: don’t mess about with Dax (don’t sit against long on Dax – another rule), close it if you feel you are not right and have that feeling when you are not in control.

      2. Good I knew it by then so I got out. You know that feeling when something is very painful and you are in the mess? You have to admit you are wrong sometimes and go through with that.

        1. Oh flippin heck I think I might have touched the button again….long from 15.3…… Should come good when cable dumps again….

      2. I’m not so sure it is that risky just yet……just being decisive……he who dithers is dead….

        1. You have to grab this lot by the b@llocks and have a go…..otherwise you miss opportunities and say why didn’t I do so and so …..after the event……respect money but be indifferent to it…..

        1. Should be good I reckon…..but it is the Dax….and that thing doesn’t take prisoners!!!!

          1. I’m down 100 pips on my cable short at moment…it’s actually a fully hedged position so it can’t hurt me…I think it will head back down and push Ftse back up..

          2. Take your time Jack shove a stop behind it so you can’t lose if you prefer but try and let it run to the upside…

          1. I don’t mess about, if it doesn’t go I admit it and take it. It turned down now. That entry was safe, but I wanted some profits at this time. There’s always another entry, and another, stop always will be the same out there somewhere.

          2. We all trade in a different way Jack……….if it works for you stick to your methods….good luck matey….

  10. A shooting star candle at end of day would bring this bullish momentum to a halt. Still long way to go today. Still out of stocks for now. Current intraday pullback unwelcome.

  11. I suspect this dollar move is wrong-footing many retail investors who probably thought there was easy money to be made around an interest rate rise in the States. Great to see Wall St in action squeezing the life out of these positions LOL. This will probably produce a good shorting opportunity in GBP USD at some point. Aside from gold, cant see anything of interest just now.

  12. Nearly in the blue now with my latest FTSE long…..when you actually get in total sync with the market it’s really good….like you can feel it….I know it’s not technically correct and tmfp would be laughing but it works for me…..the more sleepless nights and thousands of hours of screen time I get the luckier I seem to be……this game is all about persistence….good luck all….

    1. Ok I’m blue and running it for a trip back to 38-40 area…maybe more just lets see…

    1. Yeah but you need to let it breath it will be back at 150 I think today..it’s a living breathing thing the market…it breaths in and out and I personally can’t get the timing that good…

  15. stopped out of my gold long for a jolly decent 4 figure win. Hoping to enter stocks soon.

  16. Hey all.
    Faded the cable move and got stuck in the grind up trend post spike. Held my nerve and made good money, but ran 10x risk over final reward… not great.
    123.18 next stop for cable ?

      2. hey asntel ! Just wanted to quote pateint trader is profiatble one.. Let run my long from yesterday and clsoed at morning high ! shorted 40 came out @ 10 .. Currently lon from 08.. hopeyou having good day too

        1. Bloody hell that’s awesome Sharma,I couldn’t hold mine any longer….too much pressure..I was 90% sure it was going above 400 but I didn’t want to lose what I had….I was big size and ive had a fantastic week up to now…..long again large 10 underwater at moment but I’m pretty chilled out today…good luck mate…

          3. I wonder which one of us is the most patient this time . You have a 4.8 pt head start though lol :0)

          4. out @ 20 .. this dow dip has made me vary .. blue is blue in the end.. not to take this rise as a joke more to come maybe .. good luck friend .. I dun normally post as when I read others comment makes me doubtful about my own judgement hence once per day is enough. Miss Nicks Arrow, though . He is keeping all the profit to himself.. lol

          1. lol.. I got the call from IG other day saying if they could help .. does that mean I am trading too much .. 😛

          2. I think that means you have got them worried :0) because you are upsetting their profit margins..:0) …great lets tilt the playing field in our favour for a change……we have paid our dues already …keep up the good work Sharma, I’m loving it :0)

        1. Thank you. Great trade! Stop seems a bit too large for me for FTSE. I couldn’t even fit it on my screen, that high it was 🙂

  18. Ah I have heard more than once about the call from the SB company…usually looking to get you to trade more, and bigger. Usually after a decent win. The unfortunate who take them up on their kind offer can now be found behind a polystyrene cup and a piece of cardboard.

    1. The lovely SB company’s ….how could you think anything untoward about them…..I’m sure they only have our best interests at heart…….lovely chappies, they give us the chance to make a couple of Bob hear and there…..:0)

  19. Just another point that may be of interest to you all…..I think it is extremely important to fuel your body and mind properly…..I have been guilty in the past of skipping meals when I’m trading, but this is such a difficult, performance orientated,endeavour we really need to keep our body and mind in peak condition as best as we can………I’ve noticed how much more alert and responsive I can trade when I’m rested and fed with good quality food,not the processed junk from the supermarket… Just my little mutterings that might be of help to someone hopefully….:0)

    1. This is a very important subject, anstel. I noticed I skip lunches sometimes or afraid to leave the screen. I feel pretty exhausted sometimes especially when I am in ordeal, I don’t eat, remember later I didn’t have my first cup of tea etc. I do address it more seriously now.

  20. Whoa, 12042 it came, where my average from my short was yesterday. LOL. But who would have thought. Doesn’t matter, I’m up today.

    1. Aaa, it came to the top of 18.00, now I see. But at first it bounced off the top at 20.10. Classical.

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