Fed minutes show quandary over rates. Watching 7430 resistance

17th August 2017

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The market rose a bit higher than expected yesterday before the Fed minutes were released, breaking above the 7424 resistance level. These minutes showed reduced odds of another US interest rate increase this year. In the UK we also had data out with unemployment falling to its lowest level since 1975. With the CPI data out earlier this week it doesn’t look like we will have a rate rise this year either.


FTSE 100 Outlook and Prediction

FTSE 100 support resistance daily channel
FTSE 100 support resistance daily channel

We have dropped off the 7444 level from yesterday having tested it twice, and with a bullish 2 hour chart might well see a dip down to the support on that at 7375. There is also a bullish coral trend line on the 2 hour with support at 7356. The bulls will be keen to break above the 7445 level as that keeps the chance of a test of 7485 alive, though with resistance there it might well turn down from that level.

The daily chart still has bearish moving averages, though with the pop above the 7415 level it looks a bit weaker for the moment. The relief rally now North Korea are back in their box should continue for a bit longer. I was expecting it to dip down to 7250 but maybe 7300 will be as low as it goes…. If 7300 is the low then a rise back towards 7600 is still viable.

For today, we have initial support at the 200ema on the 30min at 7400 so worth watching this area as its also a round number.

If the bulls break above 7430 then 7467 and 7485 are the next areas of note. Bit of a mixed bag today and with low summer volume (typical August) we may again see slight overshoots of the key levels.

For today – 7375 for support, 7430, 7467 for resistance.

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6 Comments

  1. No Mans Land. The fundamentals of permanently low interest rates and race to the bottom in currencies make stocks and gold default investments I want to own. Golds correction was short-lived and it may attempt a major breakout over 1300 soon which I will buy.
    Ftse is tricky, if you are already long its a hold, if you are in cash its a brave buy here especially under 7440 resistance. Plus we have had 3 decent up days where normally you might now expect a 50% retrace of those gains. So hoping for small correction to buy the 7350 area failing which will play a daily candle with appropriate stop.

      1. I’ve never been strong with the Calendar thing. Sometimes I watch Pinpoint Trader on Youtube to give me some idea on the news and that’s about it. I follow Nick here to give me clue on all those Foms, witches, NFPs, expires, divi, you name it, and ECB there you go! 🙂 Interest rates or even major events which I sometimes miss on the news, like Korea news, it was interesting to know. Don’t have time for telly! 🙂

  2. Looking quite bearish. Almost as if they’re struggling to pin it up for opex tomorrow. US markets are going to correct here, Dow has made a failed rally attempt for the first time since March so maybe we’re about to finally get the break of 7300 next week. That being said, I’m short from 7440.. looking to go long tomorrow AM for the opex pop then will see where we are. 7300 still a buy until it breaks if seen

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