Fail to hold 6200 again weak ftse 6150 support NFP tomorrow

Support 6188 6165 6155 6088
Resistance 6229 6230 6234 6242
Good morning. Bit frustrating to have the FTSE and Gold trades stopped out to the pip yesterday (6222 and 1244) but from those levels they both fell back, with the FTSE hovering around the 6200 level. Generally, European shares advanced for a second day after Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen reiterated that interest rates will be raised gradually in light of uncertain global growth.

US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg

  • Dollar set for worst month since 2010 as rate-hike bets cut
  • Chinese shares traded in Hong Kong are close to bull market

The prospect U.S. borrowing costs will stay put for longer sent Asian stocks toward their best month since October, with Chinese shares in Hong Kong near a bull market. South Korea’s won strengthened, while crude oil fell with copper.

Shares in Sydney rose the most in two weeks amid a global rally that has the MSCI All-Country World Index on the brink of erasing its losses for 2016. The won climbed 0.6 percent, Malaysia’s ringgit extended gains at a seven-month high and the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index headed for its worst month in more than five years after Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen reiterated that slackening global growth called for a gradual approach to raising rates. U.S. crude dropped back below $38 a barrel as an increase in American supplies kept stockpiles at their highest level since 1930. Copper and zinc fell.

After stimulus efforts from Japan and Europe failed to arrest a global stock selloff at the start of 2016, the prospect of American rates staying where they are for at least the first half has salvaged the quarter for riskier assets. Chicago Fed President Charles Evans reinforced Yellen’s message on Wednesday, signaling the central bank would tolerate above-target inflation for a “brief period” amid threats to American expansion.

“A lot of the recent rebound has been down to the Fed back-tracking on rate hikes,” Mark Lister, head of private wealth research at Craigs Investment Partners in Wellington, which manages about $7.2 billion, said by phone. “We’ve seen a big rally but there are still some genuine worries out there. Markets had been overpricing some of the risks, whereas now they’re probably underpricing them.”

Futures now show no chance of the Fed altering monetary policy at its meeting next month and only 45 percent odds of a rate increase by November. Private American jobs data came in better than analysts expected last session, boding well for official payrolls figures due Friday.

Stocks
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index advanced a second day, rising 0.2 percent as of 12:47 p.m. Hong Kong time. The gauge is poised for an 8.3 percent jump in March. Consumer and phone-company shares drove Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index up 1.3 percent, while New Zealand’s S&P/NZX 50 Index rose 0.6 percent, climbing for a third day. The Topix index swung between gains and losses in Tokyo.

The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index added as much as 0.8 percent, extending its rebound from a Feb. 12 low to more than 20 percent, before paring the advance. Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index were down 0.1 percent following a 0.4 percent climb for the U.S. benchmark that put it back at levels last seen on Dec. 29.

Thailand reports on trade Thursday and Sri Lanka updates on consumer prices. China will provide figures on its current account balance, with Japanese housing starts also due.

Currencies
The ringgit extended its climb into a fourth day, rising 0.3 percent. Malaysia’s currency has jumped 9.4 percent this quarter, on track for its best such performance since 1973 amid oil’s rally from an almost 13-year low. Malaysia is the region’s only major net exporter of oil.

The South Korean won added 0.6 percent. Bloomberg’s dollar gauge, which tracks the greenback against 10 major peers, rose 0.1 percent following a three-day slide. The index has lost 3.7 percent this month, its steepest drop since September 2010.

“The dollar is overvalued, particularly against the major currencies, euro and yen,” said Steven Saywell, BNP Paribas SA’s global head of foreign-exchange strategy in London, in an interview on Bloomberg TV.

The yen, regarded as a haven investment along with gold and government debt, gained for a third day to 112.21 per dollar. After the ringgit, Japan’s currency is the best performer in Asia this quarter, with volatility at the start of the year burnishing its appeal.

The offshore yuan traded in Hong Kong was set for its strongest quarterly performance since 2011, rising 1.46 percent against the dollar as China’s leaders intensified efforts to boost sentiment. The Shanghai rate advanced 0.42 percent, the first gain in four quarters.

Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude declined 1.3 percent to $37.83 a barrel, dropping for the fifth time in six days as the increase in U.S. stockpiles reinforced concern over a global glut in the commodity. Brent lost 1.1 percent to $38.84, on track for a second straight monthly advance and its first quarterly climb since the second three months of 2015.

Inventories expanded for a seventh week to 534.8 million barrels, according to a report from the Energy Information Administration Wednesday, while imports and production dropped. Ecuador and Venezuela will support a cut to output at a meeting between major exporters in Doha next month, Ecuador’s Oil Minister Carlos Pareja said in a post on the ministry’s Twitter account.

Gold for immediate delivery added 0.4 percent to $1,229.27 an ounce, after sliding 1.4 percent last session, while copper declined with zinc, losing at least 0.5 percent in London trading. [Bloomberg]

FTSE 100 Outlook and Prediction

FTSE 100 Prediction
FTSE 100 Prediction

We are pretty much on the daily pivot as I write this at 6188 and its either going to rise to 6230 or drop to 6155 from here, and its not overly clear first thing which one its going to do. The 6230 area has a few resistance levels in play, including the 10 day Bianca, whilst the 10 day Raff is at 6243. 6155 is the 100 Hull MA and also S1 on the PRT charts to start with. The bulls managed to just about hold onto the 6200 level so will be keen to build on that work yesterday and if they do then that 6350 is still on the cards, if they can break 6240. However, it can also be said thats its struggling a bit here and a drop down is my slightly preferred option, with 6010 still looking like a possible area to drop to if the bears can break 6075. So not falling in love with the upside as they say! We have month end and quarter end today which can produce some irrational moves as well as NFP news out tomorrow. Generally I am thinking a short around the 6230 area, and a tentative long at 6155, with slightly more bias to the bearish side at the moment.

138 Comments

  1. Morning all, greetings from yesterday’s page.
    Good call on the 55 Nick, will it hold? Until we break 70, looks unlikely.

  2. Morning all, having said I was going to “bottom drawer” the 6200 short, closed it at 70! Must be getting weak in my old age. It seems to me 6200 is a tough nut to crack but getting it down is also tricky. Good luck all.

  3. Morning All,
    I am bit slow today for some reason and missed the bounce to 80s earlier on but managed to scalp mid-60s twice so that’s not too bad.

    6160 looks like a base for now so all square for now and waiting for a decent bounce.
    In the meantime, small long at 60 S6!

        1. Lol something wrong with me today, was trying to buy 49 just now on 30 RSI 1 min and I didn’t and missed 80s short earlier!
          I think I will go out for a fresh air and will be back.

  5. Morning all,there were Australians openly calling the Pre Yellen action a Bear trap yesterday.the odd bit is the way that could end up looking right.

    1. Oh well, back with the program then 🙁
      Just got half the 78 short left, running that with an 82 stop.

      1. GL mate, if we get in the 60’s again could be some mileage in that, trendline support at 70 atm.
        Looks like 55 held after all, 9.01, 9.02 candles back to back did it.

        1. Although its looking weak and wouldn’t be surprised if we got back to the lows, half of the half short out at 50% retrace 63, just a token short now.

          1. No I didn’t Senu …..i made a mistake yday….I still believe they will come good though…..if at first you don’t succeed and all that :0)

          1. That’s good, I thought you’d got caught by the 10.26 bounce.
            Pretty quiet again today, still holding my bit of short,
            but hopes of a break of 50 diminishing.

    1. Yes, it gets to that area and the buying evaporates, then every dip is bought and the selling disappears until we get above 200 again.
      All very strange.
      No doubt anstel has a conspiracy theory to fit. 😉

      1. Lol I havn’t actually I will have to dream one up…..ok that didn’t take me long…..how about lets lead everyone into a it’s never going to stay above 6200 mentality then we will let Mr Pump loose on the Ftse….:0)….Will that do you tmfp ? …..it was short notice :0)

  10. Hi all,
    Just registered – been lurking for a while. Used to be a subscriber to Nick a few years back, but managed to burn my account quite badly – turns out trading while angry isn’t a good idea 🙂
    Anyway, I’m back at it, trying (with difficulty) to maintain a professional approach and not get to 500pp on the dow again (nearly lost a house deposit!).
    Thanks to Nick for this service and to everyone for the daily comments here. Hopefully I’ll be able to chirp up occasionally with something useful!

    1. Morning and welcome…….Hey anyone who hasn’t blown a few accounts is either extremely good…..very lucky…..or is just not trying hard enough.Good Luck with your return to trading.

      1. yep inoodle we all have been there like anstel said.
        I am now just trading the UK FTSE and wake i make a win i
        dont go tripping around the house like Gordan Gekko:)

        1. Morning inoodle,yeah houses,who needs them,doorway near a Weatherspoons Wifi spot and a decent box and keep on trading I say 🙂

          1. Yeah houses lets get this right…..we go and buy a house for £200,000…..what is it ? It’s A load of Bricks with a few slates on the top and some bits of wood holding some glass in the bits where they ran out of bricks……that’s if you have an old house……a newer one substitute plastic for the wood……Then we use up all our heartbeats going out to work all hours including overtime and weekends to pay off the debt we have signed up to to buy our £200,000 pile of bricks that we never spend any time in apart from sleeping because we are too busy paying for it. …..Then the best Bit…..when the economy collapses our pile of bricks is only worth halve of what we paid for it….. Heartbeats our for us to enjoy and we only get so many of em……now where’s my local weatherspoons :0)

    2. Hahaha! thanks guys, both got me laughing here.
      Been reading a few ebooks on Price Action… I now have more lines drawn on my chart than I can shake a stick at… seem to be the right lines near enough, but not sure its helping me decide if its an uptrend or downtrend yet – if I squint my eyes a bit its an uptrend, or if I twist my head its a downtrend… Anyway managed +20 ftse from 57.3.
      Thinking it’ll run out at 80

          2. Investing.com stop tracking it at 17.00 BST, but Wikipedia says “floor trading” stops 17.45 CET (same as BST). Others say 17.30 CET.
            Also Frankfurt is on their DST, now at GMT +2 (CET +1).
            ffs…is nothing simple apart from me?

          3. 🙂 🙂 I’m going with the idea that if they want a close over 10k for the month they need to lift it over 10k for the end of the afternoon,rather than just stage a closing rally like the Friday night Dow.

          4. Yeah sure, but its what actual number goes in the data bank that interests me. 15 minutes on the DAX can be 100 points.

      1. why FTSE is looking like it’s going to cross 6250 in a heartbeat maybe because I’m short!!!

  15. Small short Dow@728 12 stop, looking (hoping??) for fall to 700 . Pretty major looking top @752, may short again if it reaches.

  16. Out of the 90 short I didn’t tell you about for 10.
    So, any ideas on the DOW opening chaps?

  21. Hi there traders.

    I’m abit of a lurker on this site and i love the wonderful information.

    Sometimes helps, sometimes doesn’t.
    None the less, has anyone noticed that the range is smaller than it used to be?

    Dow and Dax.

    1. Hi, we have noticed and it’s driving us crazy.
      Didn’t you put your house on DOW/DAX? long just before the weekend? How’s that going?

      1. LOL tmfp.
        peruvian_gold – We are touching highs on DOW and on the other hand, FTSE and DAX are not following Yankies on this journey.
        FTSE needs to break 6250 and DAX 10200/10400 and then we might have some volatility either way.
        Cheers

      2. Lol I replied to PG’s post with a conspiracy theory and my reply didnt appear.Nick might be one of them 🙂

        1. didn’t you know….hilsden is an anagram of reptile, well nearly.

          Peruvian, just stick with what’s working, it’s all %%%.
          GL.

      3. lol, not my house.
        Probably would have been in a fairly good position if i had.

        I use a fairly small account and try and hedge the dow and dax over the course of a week.

        It was working out to be quite lucrative, until the range tightened.

        I find it less risk, high profit in the long run.

        I see lots of quick trades being made, but i just can’t trade more than 1 to 2 pp.
        I always seem to mess up if i go any higher.

        1. >>but i just can’t trade more than 1 to 2 pp.
          >>I always seem to mess up if i go any higher.

          Mental Block…Ditto!

  24. Hello all,

    Long time lurker here…

    Looking for a bit of trading advice and comfort. I recently put 1k into my account, and over a 3 week period I made about 5k, mainly doing 10PP on the ftse. slow deliberate trades. Last friday, I made the mistake of selling towards the bottom (6112) and then stacking on top of this sell with additional sells in the hope that it would go back down. By monday morning, I had lost all my winnings, and I actually put some additional money in on top to try and “buffer,” what little I had left. It knocked me out by a few points, before dipping down to 6080.

    My confidence is completely knocked now, and the thought of trying to make that 5k again makes me think i will lose my initial deposit in a heartbeat. Has anyone experienced anything similar? do you have any advice? p.s. Nick you were bang on today.. i wish i had money in my account as i’d have bought at 6155 with a 20pt stop.

    1. £10 a point with a grand is too high leverage.
      There is such a thing as beginner’s luck, anstel will tell you, as will many others.
      Take your time, learn the trading trade. Despite the image, this is not a get rich quick business.
      GL.

      1. Thank you TMFP. I was accepting very small wins, which added up. But obviously when it started going the wrong way things did take a turn for the worse. I’ve put myself into the position now where I would very much like to get my deposit back at the very least.. so trying to muster up the courage to try again, with a smaller PP value

        1. That’s the wrong motivation. What’s gone is gone.
          You’ve already learnt a very important lesson that you’re unlikely to forget, if you’re taking small profits fine (I do), but don’t run the losses or double them up in “hope”(I don’t).

      2. £10 is definitely a bit too much to play with a grand in your account.
        I would suggest you to play with minimum stakes and use stops, another thing is your trading plan and stick to it.
        GL

    2. 2% stake old son, 2% stake. Do not try to win the world in a day but good effort to grab the £5,000 before you lost it. £2pp with your £1,000, max. Dribble it in. Just think, 50 points a day, £100 a day, £500 a week, £2,000 a month etc etc. Soon enough you’ll have enough to chuck £10pp at it!

      1. Thank you Chippy. I have been trading on/off for years throughout university, going through big win bouts of trading usually 1PP on various indexes. I would say that i’m down overall, but I thought I had something good going with this. I thought I would give this a try with a short time scale (explains the 10PP) as I have 4 months between my current job and the my next one this summer and I wanted a little summer fund to have fun. I believe frequency of trades was my biggest downfall as they quickened as I got more and more accumulating. I have definitely learned a lesson.. just trying to muster up the courage to get back onto the battlefield

  25. Definitely a bit of selling about, that DAX is suffering, I thought it might get support around 9960.
    Short, looking for a dip to cover, mindful of the 16.00 rally possibility.

  27. Poor FTSE action, didn’t get that rally despite the DOW, undecided now. Poor r/r to short at 74 but give it a go? Wait a little I think..

  28. He wo go, I’ve been promising myself an arb for ages so long FTSE at 6172, short dow at 17738, ratio of 2.1 (clearly I think it is all going to crash into a ball of dust), difference of 11,566. This one really has gone into the “bottom drawer” only to be looked at some stage in the future.

      1. Good luck as ever. Short the strong one and buy the weak is a good strategy, just dependent on them changing roles. 🙂

      1. Well if they cant be bothered to move 30 points for a pretty end of month close what’s next ? Correct reporting of Buys and Sells intraday ? it’s a slippery slope,before you know it we’ll just have news dependent trends.

        1. Agreed, poor show. Central Bank buying next…a slippery slope indeed.
          Have we ascertained whether they are actually closed now? Investing think so, at 9967.

          2. 9965.51 on Marketwatch and a few other places,sorry was just doing some exercises, usually Mkt’s move if I do that 🙂

  34. Nice little cherry on the cake at the end.
    I’m knackered, tata for now.
    And it’s good night from him too, for the last time. I don’t like short people generally but I made an exception for Corbett. RIP.

  35. Cheers everyone, hope you had a good day. My account moved in the right direction for a change, so can’t complain!
    I really need to learn how to stop trading at the appropriate point in the day to actually have a life – trading ftse and dow sessions is too much!
    See you tmrw.

  36. Well got stopped at 9800…….i need to look at my decision making…or lack of it….They do say it’s the grey matter where the problem lies and it certainly is with me……Off to lick my wounds :0( good luck all.

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