Eyes on the Fed today. 6575 resistance after 6525

Good morning, we had a nice little dip down to the 6480 area yesterday and subsequent bounce, however the bulls didn’t really push on, no doubt waiting for the outcome of the Fed meeting taking place yesterday and today. As expected it was pretty much a day of consolidation. On the daily chart prices are still nudging the top of the 10 day Raff and 20 day Bianca, after Mondays sharp rise. For today its really going to be all eyes on the fed later on today (7pm) with the results of their meeting, tapering plans, rate decision etc. Ben Bernanke will be holding his press conference at 7:30pm, once of his last as Fed chairman before Yellen takes over next  year. If its all fairly positive for markets then we will probably break through the top of these daily channels, dip back to retest them then continue rising. The flip side of that is that any weakness could well lead to 6408 and possibly lower, which would serious impact on the ability to get 6800 by year end. If the markets like what Ben has to say then movement above 6532 will be key – the high from Monday. Personally I am still quite optimistic and still think we will end the year quite strongly with no tapering till Q2 next year.

Asia Overnight from Bloomberg

Asian stocks rose for a second day, led by a surge in Japanese equities, as the declining yen boosted exporters and investors await a Federal Reserve decision on its stimulus program.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index added 0.7 percent to 138.50 as of 2:06 p.m. in Hong Kong. The measure fell the past two weeks as improving U.S. economic data spurred bets stimulus will be pared. There’s about a 60 percent chance Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and his colleagues will announce a cut in their bond buying today, according to Mohamed El-Erian, chief executive officer of Pacific Investment Management Co., which oversees $1.97 trillion as the world’s largest manager of bond funds.

“If they don’t taper in this meeting they will give a strong indication of a taper in the January or March meeting,” Chris Weston, Melbourne-based chief market strategist at IG Ltd., said in an e-mail. “A failure to move shouldn’t cause too much of a reaction in the markets, as long as the chairman gives a strong indication it is coming. Much will be made of the tone of Ben Bernanke and how upbeat he sounds on the future of the economy.”

Futures on the S&P 500 Index gained 0.2 percent today after the equity gauge fell 0.3 percent yesterday.

Fed policy makers have scrutinized data and U.S. budget negotiations to determine whether economic growth is robust enough to withstand withdrawal of monetary support. The House last week passed a budget that limits automatic spending cuts and avoids another government shutdown.

FTSE Outlook

ftse 100 prediction
ftse 100 prediction

Today’s pivot is 6496 but a lot of movement today is going to be driven by anticipation of what the Fed might say, coupled with what they actually say later. Based on Mondays move and the consolidation yesterday the market is probably pricing in no immediate tapering, and will be looking to the tone of Ben’s speech to make a move. As with the Dax, the EMAs look favourable for an initial climb, but we have Mondays high at 6532 and also a ProTrend resistance line at 6525 which might put the brakes on that initially. Most will be wary about taking large position ahead of the Fed today. Not that I put too much weight on it but the IG Insight tool has 77% of clients long – the cynic in me therefore says that there will be a dip to stop some of them out before any rises.

For today I think this climb overnight will continue to the top of that channel then a dip to the pivot and I am going to go for a positive reaction to the Fed today, with a  climb to 6575.

175 Comments

    1. Basically waste of time for me. It’s not going to be release until late in the evening when I finished my day anyway. So all day it will either flat or spiky (indecision) possibly dipping lower until who knows what happens in the evening when I don’t trade cos the spread is bad and I am tired anyway.

  3. Jack Two I always trade the quarterly contracts. The spread stays the same through the US markets too. It’s 4 points but I just see it as part of the cost of trading. 1 divi wiped out a lot of my balance last year and I haven’t traded a daily since. This also forces you not to be in and out which I try to avoid.

  4. going to be very scary today.
    1 thing i disagree with what Nick mentioned is that the fall before fed meeting will be because to stop out some of those longs…that drop is not enough to make a significant difference in the client position rating…and the options to me looks like people hedging long…

  5. tell me if im wrong.
    FX markets have no regulation, meaning insider trading allowed.. i know from exp that alot of times you go out with brokers and they do give u tips about whats going on in the FX market whose doing what (depending on how strong ur relationship is and how much flow u bring them)…if thats the case then GBP/USD up 100 pips, reason i can see that happening is when US weaking against GB…no tapering can contribute to this?

  6. FED. got this on email ?
    When we look at the arrays for this week, they all show tomorrow as the turning point with higher volatility into the end of the week. In gold, we have been unable to close ABOVE 1243 whereas a daily closing below 1224 will point to a test of the 1206.90 level where a closing below that will point to new lows. The lack of strength in gold seems to be the market anticipating tapering. The Dow has to close ABOVE 16023 to raise any bullish hope right now. However, 15945 remains immediate resistance. A daily closing BELOW 15628 will warn of further downside is possible.

    1. ye i was thinking that as well, and then started thinking of crazy ideas to prove no tapering when no one knows shit about it lol..stupid of me..

      1. UK have had good strong data. And that small bounce ahead of data at9:30 was more of speculation. imho

    1. I stop trading gold, but now it seems if we have heavy taper than all markets will go down, including gold which in the past was a safe heaven

  12. trading swings on ftse now but will get out market before news this evening as expecting huge swings (100 point) just before and on news. Will jump in on the pull back.

    1. i guess it wont be as bad as NFP days where any value can mean good or bad…with tapering if no taper good, taper (depending on amount can be bad)…right?

      1. It’s impossible to tell..may be a sell the news event..remember DOW rallied some 300 pts on Monday from its lows of 15660..so a tough call!!

        1. Common sense dictates that Bernanke will NOT taper on his LAST fed meeting Why should he when he can pass the ‘hot potato’ to Miss beauty queen ..Janet Yellen..why should Bernanke be left with the albatross around his neck after his tenure?? Think about it…

  14. IG News – saying shorts are covering thats why its up 20 points… There must be also a lot of sellers to peg it at 20 points when the Dax is up 100 points

  16. In my view, if the fed announce small amounts of tapering tonight then after initial volatility markets will rally for a year end high of 6800ish as Nick has predicted. If the fed taper massively (unlikely) then the market will tank and provide good entry points in the New Year. If they don’t taper but provide a rough timetable for tapering they the market will rally. However, if they don’t taper and don’t provide markets with a withdrawal timetable then the market will tank and remain volatile until a timetable is in place. Markets hate uncertainty and its the known unknowns at the moment that are holding off the year end rally. I will be hoping for either no tapering with a timetable for withdrawal or small tapering with a timetable – if either of these occur then a year end rally will kick in AFTER initial volatility. With that in mind, I will be waiting until tomorrow morning once the market has dissected the announcement and we have seen how the US market has reacted. Good luck all!

  17. This insane focus of the Fed’s options — “tapering” or not, misses the entire point. Most people admit that the whole quantitative easing has failed. True, the unemployment rate has fallen from a peak of 10% in 2010 to 7% today and the Fed’s target it claims is to keep short-term rates a near zero until that falls to 6.5%. But there are many who believe tapering is required as quickly as possible, because they argue it is contributing to an overinflated stock market.

    The intense debate over the virtues of quantitative easing is really meaningless. It has failed to accomplish any goals because the Fed does not take direct action. It offset the quantitative easing by creating an excess reserve facility paying 0.25%. Banks have over $2 trillion deposited there risk free. So while the Fed “bought” bonds to lower long-term rates, it then replaced that avenue with a boulevard allowing banks to sell their junk bonds to the Fed and then park the cash on which they then paid them interest. The idea this would “stimulate” the economy has proven to be false because the banks failed to lend the money out.

    Lower the interest rate the Fed pays banks is the ONLY real stimulus. If the Fed eliminated the interest rate it pays banks of 0.25%, then you would see stimulation. Everything the Fed has done to this day has failed to produce inflation and the stock market rise is simply capital trying to earn a living. This is still no speculative bubble.

  18. Big Ben will not want to do anything dramatic before his exit and leave Yellen with issues. Small tapering expected and a rally.

    1. Agree…
      I don’t see Ben ruining his reputation, or what’s left anyways.
      Don’t forget that Yellen will have a say in this…

  19. I’m holding shorts (ftse 6474, dow 15851) and feeling like a sitting duck – both will shoot up and wipe me out. Of course, they won’t be dropping, sods law…

  20. What do you think about the EUR/USD ? that long term downtrend line from 2008 being hit again in these last weeks.
    Will it break today or in the next days

  21. 78% long on IG creating even more doubts in my head … Expecting no tapering at all was convinced with yellen’s interview 1 month b4 …. But don’t knw how it will do it but they need to kill the longs convince us all it’s going down kill the shorts n then go up ?? Any 1 supporting this idea??

    1. 100% with u..hence why i think it might be a small taper to shock the market..maybe for a day or two

  22. I think that if the fed does not taper today, then the ftse will drop to 6100 in q1 in anticipation of tapering like Nick said. However, if there is some guidance today as to when there will be tapering, i think it will be flat today, and will stay flat going into the new year.

  23. Most people short on US markets though so ignore that. 77% isn’t bad it’s when it’s 95% long you worry!

    1. its only 63 percent short on US…and thats not a significant value…75% is a value where u can trade upon that data….
      it looks worrying that everything red now.

  24. .. this fed nonsense is bing overplayed, if you turn it round and say fed pumps $75b/month for the forseeable future, fed pumps $65b/month for the forseeable future, $50b etc etc, you get the idea that theres going to be a lot of money still swishing around, oh and if the economy stalls there’ll be QE4!! ..this markets got a way to go yet be careful shorting this time of the year 🙂

    1. I dont know if its just me…but something like today is nerve wrecking…
      Assuming its nerve wrecking for everyone, knowing this, ur idea above will be EXTREMELY bad for the market because we will in the same spot several times every couple of months.
      There has to be a plan of exactly when tapering will begin and how ever often.
      I think if fed choose to do what u said then its going to be extremely hard to trade until QE is stopped.

      1. I tend to agree with hubris.
        The Fed won’t put the market in ruin, that would be a double wammy. The stimulus did not work as great as expected and taking it out now will do more damage, so effectively you have crippled the economy instead of helping it. I think they will now look at saving the situation with the least amount of pain, wether that is now or in March…

  27. Closed FTSE short just now @ 6480 as per Nicks chart, don’t want it to shoot to the moon after Fed…. Managed to closed me bad trade on CAC from yesterday for +7…
    Flat now will look to enter market tomorrow. I prefer to long DAX/CAC and short FTSE….

  28. I have no idea what I want to happen. If it shoots up I’ll be frustrated about being cautious and trading half my normal stake and if it drops it will be good to get a better average for the next leg up. It’s going to be choppy that’s for sure. I hate the way the move happens before you can react too.

  31. Interesting to see how FTSE after a huge candle reverse and cross above the 200 ma, retrain is force for 2 days hovering the 200 ma, because of the TAPER DEAL.
    It’s waiting in the station 😀

  32. Well good luck chaps and chapesses….

    I have chosen to taken no position going into the Fed decision – i will let the price action guide me as to whether to go long or short – dont want to horribly be on the wrong side of the decision. If i miss a bit of the rally or rise then so be it as I think this will set the direction for a few days at least. Might do something tonight but aim to go bigger probably tomorrow. I do think the market will rally given recent selloff but prepared to rapidly rethink my ideas. So have poured myself a big glass of wine and sitting back ready for the action.

    1. Tis true – but i guess if you trade the FTSE or any other index it gives us fairly decent swings in the markets. Must admit I thought the decision was 6pm UK time, but at least I am early

    1. I was expecting this during the day but i guess this is done post general market closure. I should say that i do have a silly buy order in in case there is a spike down. If they taper it ill cancel it

        1. Just a touch over 6400 but I wont be upset if it isn’t triggered, and if they taper in a decent way (which i dont think will happen it will get cancelled). But if it comes down much more beforehand then Ill lower it. I am after the longer term swings as my main plan rather than intra day movements

  35. Just closed my Nikkei short at a small loss..got bored monitoring it since 1am!! And later on may become too volatile/spike and platform may freeze preventing me from closing it. Closed at 15542. Loss £163.

    Common sense dictates that Ben Bernanke will NOT taper on his LAST fed meeting. Why should he taper when he can pass the ‘hot potato’ over to his successor, the former beauty queen, Miss Universe, Janet Yellen.

    Think about it. Why should he be left with the albatross around his neck at the end of his tenure?

  36. The delivery guy just dropped off extra oxygen cylinders for me to trade the fed decision in 10 minutes!! 🙂

  37. feels soo bad for me…my mentality is saying long (which im going with), and strategy showing strong bears….i guess announcments are something that can change market directions and cannot be modelled into a strategy :S (trying to do everything to keep my mindset to long and not short which my strategy is showing)

  38. After the stress of the Nikkei in the last 18 hrs, I don’t have the concentration level to open any big position..so just a small one to recover the £163 loss earlier.

  39. Just watch the algos go, huge spikes in BOTH DIRECTIONS after the immediate decision at 7pm, because already programmed, last week??

  44. I am not trading till morning..will see how this crap gets digested..am already down £163 today after a lot of stress!!

  47. wow got an avg open of 6480 long..fking lucky me!!! mad risk (even i said ill gamble here)!”!!!!£!!!

    1. mo yes… but seriously dont do it.. i might take it out..
      my strategy getting more bearish like crazy.
      THIS JUMP WONT LAST!

  52. Typical had 6 charts of FTSE up..2 min to 30 min…FTSE flat!!..then saw DOW up 180..too late to short it because by the time I open 6 charts in DOW..some of the short trade will gave gone…

  54. Why the hell is DOW up nearly 200??? On tapering…you are supposed to get a sell off!! As always they will make up the news to FIT the price action…even my 5 year old neice knows if Bernanke tapered today..we would sell off..not rally!!!

    1. Sticking to long on ftse…SL at BE at 6480… if this is a reversal then we can hit 6900-7000 by mid jan…so willing to take the BE vs catching 400 odd points.. lets see

  58. The spikes down FIRST were to take out the stops of the longs entering..lol..another Muhammad Ali’s ‘rope- a-dope’ strategy!! 🙂

  59. It’s a rally at the relief of knowing its started . It will shoot down in the last hour of the session

  61. I hope it will not break today the 6530. I wanna enter above it tomorrow, if this market digests a santa rally

    1. Out of interest why do you wish to buy above 6530? I thought a taper would cause markets to drop especially after these initial spikes. At this current moment FTSE does not seem bullish. Can change in an instant though

      2. Well, forget it. I had a strategy for no taper, no guidance.
        Now I wanna see how markets digest this till tomorrow.
        I have plenty of time to enter at best places.
        Above 6600 will invalidate the 2 swing lows and more bullish FTSE.

        1. yes pms thats a good plan…
          ive cut my position 50%, see what happens tomorrow, leaving 50% of position for break even 🙂 good enough of a payday for me

          1. well some call it gambling some calling it managing risk :)…guess some people are retards who cant differ between 2

          2. answer honestly…whats ur return since u started trading? because u do seem like a guru..rather than just giving ur opinion try to judge people.

  65. Its confidence in the market …. Fed tapers as they feel economy is now strong enough . It’ll go down when they panic at the trillions that will be taken back out

  69. Uiii it almost hit my entry point at 6539. I cancelled it and hope not see a spike up tomorrow. SO the best thing is to close charts so I’m not tempted

  71. Love the CNBC headline..’US stocks surge as Fed decides to taper; triple-digit jump for Dow’…just yesterday every ‘expert’ was unanimous in saying if taper is announced we will see at least a few days of selling as markets factor this into the equation…then they will stabilise and rally again…I do not recall ‘anyone’ saying we would RALLY on the day tapering is announced…lol..:-)

    Now we have moved to good news is good news AGAIN very conveniently with a flip of the coin…on the premise the economy is strong enough to withstand tapering…but please don’t hold your breath, this will change by morning, and again the following day!!!

    3 mini shorts in Dow..so works out at £1.82 point..short is at 16041…

  72. PMS Twitter..looks like it’s the other way around from what you said above..
    More like tapering and guidance..markets to the moon! 🙂

  73. Shorts getting hammered!! That’s why we are going higher..short’s stop losses hit..margin calls..liquidations..closing out their positions..so buying..so driving DOW and FTSE higher…

  76. Bears go hibernate. Now I start seeing a huge gap tomorrow above the 200 ma.
    The train will take off far away from the station 😀 Go FTSE I’m with you. We will have good times ahead

  77. Start of the Santa Rally? what do you think? I’m holding longs on the FTSE from 6400 (£5 per point) and 6490 (£5 per point) and also the Dow from 15710 (£5 per point). Stops were at entry from the earlier longs, so I just had to sweat on the recent (6490) one. Thankfully the market took off. Will we make a new high on the DOW? Will the FTSE now move towards 6800? If a Santa rally kicks in then we could see both, but as ever these markets are unpredictable. Happy to get stopped out at break even, but looking for some ho ho ho!!!

  78. Ho ho ho! Anyone hoping for a 6550 entry tomorrow? I added to my half stake on the initial rise which was hugely risky. 6521 average. I will add if it falls to 6550 and sell on the way up above 6700. How long before 7000 is mentioned on here!

  79. I predicted that the Santa rally will start on the 16th this year. Check my post about 10 days ago I think and it was questioned as lunancy. Looks a good call from where I’m standing.
    Yes it’s a trumpet and it might even be mine…..but I don’t blow it too often…so forgive me……it’s Christmas……!

    1. predicting such ridcule is scenario is a proof of luck, in my opinion.. but hey if ur making money what do u have to care about :)..make money n let haters hate 🙂

      1. Agree with luck comment..and if you make money on it good..but is just down to luck..not based on any rational trading strategy regards trading the Fed tapering decision today.

        What is evidently wrong is the logic being used as an explanation, which is perverse, to say the least!!

        if I posted yesterday that Fed will taper and we would rally 300 points what would you all say?? You would say it’s the other way around Ray 🙂 Your mad!!

  80. I am buying a ‘I love Ben Bernanke car sticker tmrw’..:-)

    What a dog he is to make a totally foolish decision…did he not know I was short? 🙂

  81. Hi Javed..you did indeed..but with respect you also said that the Fed would NOT taper as it would hamper liquidity during the xmas period..so on this reasoning if Fed DID taper, as it did today, then we would/should have a sell off, and hence sell off means/supposed to mean NO Santa rally!!

    Not a single expert that I am aware of said we would ‘RALLY’ if Fed tapered…nearly all said a sell of initially..no one said rally! Lol 🙂

  82. So basically translates to just a lucky guess.as tapering means sell off..not rally!! Also if you think about it it is totally irrational to associate tapering with a 300 point rally…what has all this year been punctuated with?? Taper tantrums on fear tapering means loss of stimulus.

    1. I think the only rational response is that the FED has provided a degree of certainty to the market wether that be taper or no taper. A sense of relief. But as you said, no one expected for taper to cause such a rally.

      1. A sense of relief indeed for the HFT’s who booked their 300 points in the dow!! 🙂 Watch it evaporate in the next few days as they now go short to make more money..

    2. im agreeing if a possible sell off in january.. but i do also at same time believe that we will see a good high. I cut my long position in half and kind of regret it but thinking back probably was a good decision. I need a couple more days to see where ftse is to be confident in my views together with my strategy in either a long or short position..FTSE currently according to my strategy is still a bear market, but i dont know if my strategy willl either reverse to show bull market or whether ftse will drop and agree with what my current strategy is showing.
      sorry for spelling mistakes im drunk again LOL.
      Dont worry PMS dont piss u off like last time even though u tried to launch an attack AGAIN…as long as im making money and hopefully helping other people..im happy.
      Also would say trading on the announcment was a very very risky trade (one of the most riskiest trade i have done in my life), but if u work on a monthly profit basis and willing to take the risk without digging too deep in the profit, id classify that as managing ur money properly. and thats a EXTREMELY important skill, not saying im great at it because i sure can definely use any help as never trade with all my funds and only deposit certain amount of money im willing to lose, meaning i miss out on compounded returns.

  85. We already know from the dozen or so press conferences that interest rates will remain low for a long time..so no forward guidance there..neither on the point that it is all data dependent..neither on the point that we may add/reduce asset purchases as and when required by the economy…so much for the forward guidance Bernanke!!

  86. Ray, some experts on here (ahem myself included) said we would rally even with a taper. Certainty is the name of the game. Low interest rates, where does the money go? Gold?! It has to go to stocks. 6500 is the base now. We might test 6530 tomorrow but I will be adding there.

    1. See theres several interpretations (not saying mine is is right, in my head it is, but just trying to prove to myself why i went long)..
      *taper happens, we saw markets fall i think dow was down about 63 points… but saying that the QE will hold till unemployement falls MUCH lower level is something that is attractive to risky investors who want to invest in stocks..with QE in place, and economy doing much better than before, why not invest in stocks…at least there wont be as much market confusion related to “tapering”, today bernanke peeled the plaster off the wound, but the wound still needs to heal.
      Now that ftse has clearly exceeded the 6525 level i believe we are ready to see much higher, again cant say that with ANY confidence as i need my own personal views and my strategy (which is bearish) to come in line, so lets wait a couple of days and see where ftse leads us.
      For now, im 1 lot long on ftse on (updated – after closing half of it) avg open of 6493, SL still set to 6493 for BE. If my strategy shows less bears tomorrow then ill begin to add to long (again only risking my profits and not my account balance).
      GL all!
      u too PMS!

      1. I fear a big crash is coming next year, before the third quarter…all we are witnessing is a big bubble in stocks! Bernanke alluded to this in May!! That’s why he deliberately scared the markets back then! Google it..

        Dow 16200, Japan 16000, Dax 9200 etc etc..just watch this bubble pop next year..who in their right minds would want to invest in equities AFTER we have had unprecedented gains of some near 30% this year? What? Do they expect a repeat performance? Get real guys..someone will be left holding the baby..the big institutions’/hedge funds will head for the doors at the first signs of this bubble bursting..GL!! My bias is NET SHORT FOR JAPAN/US/GERMANY..ftse is lagging..so will see.

        We have had 6 year bull market..what we think it is going to go to 10 yrs? Valuations are over stretched in every economic sense you can think of..earnings potential for next year is mediocre at best..so where are all these ‘buy’ signals coming from??

    2. Let me know if you know anyone who said we would rally in this magnitude on today’s announcement of Fed tapering..as I have scanned the press..nothing..no one credible anyway.. everyone was in camp of if tapering..sell off…at least for a few days..

      You cannot have it both ways…we have been rallying all this time on the basis of QE..and NOW we will continue to rally when it is announced QE is being withdrawal gradually??!!

      Just to prove it ..watch next week or next few weeks..we will sell off from these high levels…so much for the certainty! Why will we sell off if the economy is now stronger and we know QE tapering scares have gone? lol…

      This was the same scenario a few weeks ago on NFP day..we rallied big..good news is good news..a few days later ALL of the NFP gains had evaporated..because they had changed the record to good news is NOW bad news…expect the same!!

      I have seen this game played many times in the last 5 years..it was always the same with EU debt deals..we would rally big on it being excellent news..then a few days later a sell off as they booked profits..saying conveniently the details were unclear!!

      LESSON: markets have very little or no relation to the news MOST of the time!!

  87. Poms don’t worry about today. It will fall back a bit tomorrow to jump in. I’m still reeling from the out of hours crumble the other night stopping me out then going 130 points the other way!

  89. … Chaps I would be very wary of any shorts tomorrow, huge POMO day S&P should clear 1825, and FTSE 6600, IMHO .. Just a thought as we all settle down for the evening 🙂 time for a sherry I think!

  90. Zirp… Zero interest rate policy.
    Feds are saying at least 2015 before interest rise, this means investor only have stock too put there money into.

  91. Ray I read that trailing earnings (currently 19 times?) are still nowhere near the multiplier in the 2000 bull run which was late 20’s. There is legs in the US markets yet in my view which will drag ftse to 7,000. Thereafter you may be right re the pull back but funds cannot sit on cash so where does it go?

    1. In those days I think the fundamentals were at least better than now..what do we have now? Just fake QE stimulus which is making the rich more rich, no trickle down effect to the poor!

      What’s the average poor guy made on this QE stimulus? Take a conservative £10,000 in savings (which is a lot for the average Jo)..he makes some £2500…so all this QE money is just a scam which is just helping the bankers get rich and the making the rich more rich..BUT with taxpayer’s money!!

      Modern day capitalism is just a ponzi scheme….. ‘Casino Capitalism’….just look at it’s essential component…..’Fractional Reserve Banking’…making money out of thin air knowing full well that only a certain percentage is ever needed in reserve!!

  92. Rol..any news on that IG bird..Brenda Kelly on her short recommendation, target 6000 and that other guy as well, who said short from 6490 TP, 6200? 🙂 Typical IG..leading us up the garden path!

  94. Before we post upside targets and longs get complacent.. Hong Kong Markets was up 1.5% in futures last night, its now down 0.4% and dropping fast….

  95. Hong Kong shares at 5 week lows after QE announcement…according to IG…well what was the party in the HK index for last night??

    So much for the so called QE certainty of yesterday..Honk Kong Index just dropped a massive 700 POINTS last night!! 23450 TO 22800…OBVIOUSLY they did NOT say they booked profits…of course nothing to do with that..buy buy buy..Santa rally..expect the same fort he U.S. market VERY SOON! They are just waiting for a ‘news’ excuse to peg it onto when they book their 300 point profit!

        1. Miserable? More like partying! ;-)They just booked some 700 points while telling everyone else to buy buy buy..left the retail investor holding the baby..just imagine…a few hour later…a complete volte-face!! Look at the size of the drop..700 pts..astounding..

        2. I am not miserable..just bloody cynical at all the crap in the markets which most of the time defies logic!!

          1. Cheap shot Rol!!

            I do, but you don’t obviously feel for the guys who just bought overnight (retail investors) in the Hong market on the back of this QE tapering rally last night, only to have a HUGE 700 points taken off the index in the blink of an eye??

            How do you reconcile this 700 point drop with all the exuberance of QE tapering last night..the 300 point dow rally?? That’s why I am cynical..not miserable…I don’t hold any positions in Hong Kong market!!

  96. Wow what a rally in equities this morning..big names like Rio Tinto up a massive 12 points..Anglo American 14 pts!! Just scanning the FTSE, most constituents not even up 2%..a ringing endorsement of QE certainty…

    1. I shorted DOW last night from it’s high’s..16180..closed earlier at 16130 (small trade to average down my loss/compensate)so yes..my strategy is to sell into the rallies in the U.S. market..and not buying into strength..because as regards the U.S. market, there is none, just a bubble that will pop next year, and come back to the ground at more reasonable levels, say 13,000-14,000 range min…

  98. Nick’s chart for yesterday was bang on..but it was predicated on the belief that there will be NO tapering and that no tapering is probably being priced into the market..obviously even he would agree, if it was the other way around (tapering), the chart would be upside down!! i.e. a big drop, not a rally!

    1. Oh well…best not to be ‘MISERABLE’..I am sure the markets will give you another opportunity.. 🙂

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