ECB later today, buy the rumour, sell the news is the plan

Support 6145 6144 6116 6114 6082
Resistance 6173 6200 6205 6260

Good morning.
Market Summary for 9th March 2016
The FT100 is still stuck in its range of 6100-6200 where it has been for a few days now.
It is a healthy consolidation after the big moves up from 5500 seen in the last few weeks.
The European Central Bank Rate decision is at 12:45pm so possibly the range could be broken but with a well telegraphed decision it is unlikely. The press conference is at 13:30.
The FT100 dipped at the open but then oscillated around 6150 before settling at 6146, a rise of 20 points.
Banks were the weakest sector with no sector clearly dominating the upside.
Another nice short on the FTSE100 from 6169 this time, which nearly managed to run to the 6110 target but was worth banking parts as it dropped. The Dax and S&P trades were stopped out to the pip (9680 and 1995) and then moved as expected so both of those were rather annoying yesterday!

US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg

  • Won jumps after Bank of Korea leaves interest rates unchanged
  • Crude oil trades near three-month high as gold declines

Asian stocks rose for the first time this week and the euro weakened before an expected loosening of monetary policy by the European Central Bank. New Zealand’s dollar fell and its bonds jumped after a surprise interest-rate cut.

Energy producers helped lift the MSCI Asia Pacific Index as crude oil held near a three-month high, while Japanese exporters were buoyed by a retreat in the yen. South Korea’s won strengthened against all 31 major peers after the nation’s central bank refrained from lowering borrowing costs at a review, while the euro declined for a third day versus the dollar. The kiwi dropped to a one-week low and New Zealand’s two-year bond yield tumbled by the most since 2011. Gold fell.

“There’s very strong expectations that we’re going to see further stimulus from the ECB, and the real question is how strong that stimulus will be,” said Chris Green, an Auckland-based strategist at First NZ Capital Group Ltd., a brokerage and wealth management firm. “We’re seeing a more supportive environment for risk assets going forward.”

The ECB is forecast to ease policy via measures including an interest-rate cut and an expansion of its quantitative easing, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg. That would add to a wave of global monetary stimulus this year that includes a lowering of Chinese lenders’ reserve requirements and Japan’s introduction of a negative interest rate. The International Monetary Fund said Tuesday that volatile financial markets and low commodity prices were heightening risks for the global economy.

Traders are reining in bets on monetary tightening in the U.S., with Fed funds futures indicating a 4 percent chance the Federal Reserve will increase interest rates at a policy meeting next week, down from 10 percent at the start of this month. The Bank of Japan will also review policy next week and Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said Thursday there’s scope for more easing if needed. Chinese inflation data showed consumer prices rose 2.3 percent from a year earlier in February, less than the official 3 percent target.

Stocks
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.4 percent as of 1:43 p.m. Tokyo time, with a measure of energy stocks climbing 1 percent. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index added 0.8 percent, New Zealand’s S&P/NZX 50 Index advanced 0.8 percent to a record and Japan’s Topix Index gained 1.5 percent.

“There are expectations for easing in Europe,” said Koichi Kurose, Tokyo-based chief market strategist at Resona Bank Ltd. “If there’s nothing, it’s going to be a big negative surprise.”

Toyota Motor Corp., the world’s largest automaker, rallied 2.9 percent in Tokyo. Kansai Electric Power Co., Japan’s second-largest power utility, slid as much as 17 percent after a court ordered it to shut down two nuclear reactors due to safety concerns. Cnooc Ltd., China’s biggest offshore oil & gas company, gained 2.1 percent in Hong Kong.

Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index were little changed, as were contracts on the U.K.’s FTSE 100 Index.

Currencies
The euro weakened 0.2 percent to $1.0976. It’s dropped almost 3 percent in the past month, making it the worst performer among major currencies. Economists forecast the monetary authority will on Thursday cut its deposit rate from minus 0.3 percent and step up a 60 billion-euro ($66 billion) monthly bond-buying program.

The New Zealand dollar fell 0.4 percent to 66.29 U.S. cents, sliding for a fourth day. The nation’s central bank lowered its benchmark interest rate a quarter of a percentage point to a record 2.25 percent and said further easing may be needed owing to a worsening outlook for the global economy. The change was forecast by just two of 17 economists surveyed by Bloomberg.

The won strengthened 0.8 percent versus the dollar, trimming this year’s loss to 2.9 percent. The Bank of Korea’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged on Thursday was forecast by 11 of 18 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. The other seven predicted a quarter of a percentage point reduction.

Australia’s currency fell 0.2 percent to 74.72 U.S. cents. It touched 75.28 on Wednesday, the strongest since July. Japan’s yen fell 0.3 percent, losing ground for a second day.

Commodities
Oil traded at $38.23 a barrel in New York, after jumping 4.9 percent on Wednesday to $38.29, the highest closing price since Dec. 4. U.S. gasoline consumption was at the highest level since September over the past four weeks, reducing inventories for a third week, according to data from the Energy Information Administration.

Copper was little changed in London, after gaining 1.4 percent on Wednesday, and nickel fell 0.3 percent. Gold declined 0.3 percent, after losing 1.1 percent in the previous two trading sessions.

“A slight retreat in safe-haven demand may be weighing on gold as oil and equities are rising at the moment,” said Helen Lau, an analyst at Argonaut Securities (Asia) Ltd. in Hong Kong. “Gold should go higher as investors expect more easing from the ECB to reflate the economy.”

Bonds
The yield on New Zealand’s two-year bonds dropped 18 basis points to 2.03 percent following Thursday’s interest-rate cut, while that on the country’s 10-year notes touched a record-low 2.91 percent. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand signaled further monetary easing may be needed, saying it’s concerned by a slump in inflation expectations.

South Korea’s three-year bonds erased their gains of the past three days, pushing their yield up five basis points to 1.53 percent. The yield on U.S. Treasuries due in a decade increased by one basis point to 1.89 percent. [Bloomberg]

FTSE 100 Outlook and Prediction

FTSE 100 Prediction
FTSE 100 Prediction

The big “event” today is the ECB and what everyone has been talking about all week, and I expect we will get a bit of buy the rumour, sell the news this morning unless something totally unexpected is announced that will push us higher and break the 6215 recent high. 12:45 is the news releases, with the press conference at 13:30. So, on guard then as it is likely to get a bit choppy. Initially we have some fairly decent looking support at 6144 as both the daily pivot and the 2hour hull moving averages are showing this. Below this then the 10 day Bianca channel is at 6116 (was 6110 yesterday and we bounced just before that after that fall from the 6170). If the 6144 area holds then I think we will get a push up towards 6200 this morning, where we have the 200ema on the daily and also R2. Above this then 6215, and then 6260 for resistance and as this is a daily channel worth a short if we were to get that high. I feel more confident about the morning with a rise towards 6205, after that I am leaning towards a dip back down as I think we have stayed above the 6100 level this week pricing in positive ECB action. It would take something unexpected to break the 6200 level, so I am favouring a dip back down to the 6115 area. Possibly 6000 before too long. I still think the bounce from 5500 is a bit overdone but it seems to be holding alright for the moment. The daily RSI(10) is still hovering around the 61 area, so not overbought but ideally that would be around 40 before another big push up. RSI is an ancillary indicator for me rather than a signal to trade off. So, similar pattern today that we have had for the week really – rise this morning and then dip this afternoon, with 6205 and 6215 being the key resistance levels to watch, and 6116 being the key support below 6144.

223 Comments

  1. Morning All, My short order was executed yesterday while I away and managed to get +40.
    We have a 20-25 point range again on FTSE.
    I went long earlier this morning at 40 and shorted 54.
    Now long again at 37

  2. Morning all,dont have any open positions and going to the Gym,fwiw someone told some Germans Draghi is planning to buy Bank Debt in a way designed to imply he is willing to do more. That’s from Twitter 🙂

  3. Mornin all, if you’ve got any drying paint that needs watching, I guess the next couple of hours would be as good as any.

    Just something inspired by Nick’s comments re RSI and interest in my trading system.
    I 100% agree that a broadly based approach to dealing is the best, (minus reading “news”) but simplicity of it and confidence in it are the keys, as they are to most things.
    I never really wanted to punt my system as a Get Rich Quick deal, which it certainly isn’t, but I do believe that RSI is a very valuable indicator and would encourage study of it and its use in context. There are nuances to it which are only apparent after hundreds of hours.
    I’ve cluttered up the page a lot in the past with trades which, because of the time lag mainly, are of limited use for others to consider actioning, so won’t be doing that so much any more.
    Leave it like this; when RSI readings are extreme (in any time frame) i.e. >80 <20, then I'd recommend being aware that a good counter trend entry could be imminent, and that divergence between price and rsi should always be noted.
    GL as always.

    1. Long @ 6125, 09.40 1min 10 rsi 14.8, closed @ 6131 09.43 rsi 40.
      £120 in three minutes, that’s what I do.
      The ECB, oil, Ichimoku and Fibonacci don’t matter.
      🙂

      2. Morning tmfp, as you know I’m a very different trader to you but have learned a lot about rsi. I don’t spend my day watching FTSE as have a job to do but I have increasingly watched rsi for entries. I have been practicing on the DOW in the evenings, saves having to speak to the Mrs or watch rubbish on telly!
        One thing I’ve not understood it the “divergence between rsi and price”, please could you give me an example?

        1. Sure.
          Not a particularly good one, but easy to show the actual meaning, look at this morning 3min ftse 10 period.
          0757 candle high to 0836 high is an upward sloping line on price 53.6-57.6, but a downward sloping line on rsi 72.6-63.3, and a top subsequently formed.
          That’s divergence. Works best in short spans of time, especially when the initial reading is extreme.

          Also within a trending market, the “band” of rsi continuation moves down in a bear move to 60/20, up in a bull to 40/80.
          Look at 1 min since 08.40.
          A 36 point downtrend, (with two profitable counter trend rsi entries), but also the price trend is confirmed by the inability of rsi to break 60.
          When it does break 60, if it also makes a higher high or breaks the downtrend line, then my interpretation is that the bear run could be ending. Let’s see. (prob won’t work now we’re watching 🙂 )

          1. Gotcha, brilliant, thanks. I’ll have a bit more of a look this evening as tricky to see on a phone!

          2. And now on the 1 min, just a hint of a bottom forming, although the 10.26 blip to 21/56.3 was quickly sold (as it hit the downtrend, it’s trying to hold 40rsi and diverging.
            Weak signal though, but in the wider context of long term support around this area, I’m sniffing around for a rally, tbc by a break of prev high 22 and 60 rsi. Otherwise sideways, or down if it gives up 40.

          3. One further proviso and I’ll shut up. A narrow range like this last hour mins makes short term rsi very sensitive and prone to false signals. Other input essential before pressing the button too hard.

      3. Thanks & morning Tmfp – I think that was great to clarify your trading style.
        I assumed that’s what the general basis of your trading was (Hi Steaks!).
        It was worth clarifying, as I can imagine that many read these boards might be wondering what you’re on about !

        1. Morning Hugh, yeah I didn’t want to appear to be saying that I’d found a Holy Grail or anything for newbies.
          BTW, if I sound slightly disparaging about more complex approaches pls don’t take this as some oblique personal criticism. I find your ongoing quest for the Perfect System very valuable and thought provoking.
          Waxing for a mo, trading is like life, valuing tried and tested stuff whilst always being open to new ideas.

          There goes 40rsi and new price lows follow. all is lost #lol

          In the wider context, I can’t help thinking this could be cheap later….

          2. Went to my first Bears Anonymous meeting last night chippy…
            “Hi, I’m tmfp and I’m a shortaholic.”

            I thought I was bad, this woman there sold her own kids because of over population. If that wasn’t bad enough, she sold her neighbours’ too.
            🙂

          3. Hi Tmfp –
            I’m not necessarily looking for a Perfect System.
            We’ve covered the Short Term Counter Trend Trade.
            What I’m intrigued with is finding a Trend based system, still based on the 1 min chart.
            I’ve touched upon this a few times over the last couple of days. Sell the rallies or Buy the dips. General bias.
            Sounds obvious doesn’t it – but you’ll understand that it is more complicated than this !
            For example FTSE 6118, as I’m just writing this – may just create a positive cross and indication that we have a trend change and at the same time, we have an RSI (that may be) >70. Accepting this, Buy the pullbacks…

          4. Yeah, broke and held 60, now in sweet channel on 1 min, new high too.
            Could trip over at 30/35, or just a dead cat already at 24…Dax doing its thing, was good scalp short at 50+ for 10. Might trade it again soon.

  4. Lol I was expecting a rise this morning and then a dip and now we are heading to kiss 6100 I guess.
    Short 21 S6

      1. Morning Hugh, Yes I know – I am getting tired of this 10-20 point range but I can’t complain as I have scalped over 300 pts for the last couple of days.
        +++ for tmfp on RSI strategy, I just shorted 21 on RSI 56.1 and out at RSI 40 for +5

    1. Got to think there alot of orders around this area 6100 – 6110.
      If I was to be cynical, what about a good clear out 6080 – 6100

      1. I don’t think we will hit 6080 before ECB, we have already lost over 40 points since this morning and I believe 6100 S10 is definitely worth a small long and maybe add some more at 6110.
        I might even switch to short if we break 6090.
        I have just bought some at 6110 S20 and I will buy 6100 again with S10

          2. Hi Rick,
            As I just mentioned above I’ve got a trend change at about 6118- optimal buying area 6118 – 6121 – 6115.

  7. Right ho, here is my plan. Short (Dave) has been reduced to half size at 6112 (for another piddly reward!). Plan is to sit on my hands until the announcement. Whatever he says I’ll be seller over 6150 and in increments over. If it gets a smack I think I’ll watch it and weep.

    2. Good plan.
      Trouble is, everyone can see this 6100/200 range and I’m sure the algos have stop hunts primed.
      I’m thinking 6050/6250 false breakouts.
      For the rate announcement at 12.45, I think I’ll do my +- 30 thing.

      1. Yes tmfp – FTSE can hit 6250/6050 today.
        I think I will sight tight and will only short on extreme bounces!
        My £100/pt 6110 long worked out nicely though 🙂
        While I am typing took half at 27.

        1. I was thinking maybe 050/250 (false) breakouts over the next few days not today, although anything’s possible.
          Nice buy at the lows there, I picked up a bit on the rsi/high break 16 and just let it go, mainly for 50% retracement at 32.

          1. Well, I am just guessing that FTSE might do some crazy BS movements this afternoon so as you said anything is really possible.
            Bought some more at 25 tgt 50 before ECB.

  8. Should have went long at 6110, got in at 6125 instead. Hopefully we’ll get to the 6170-6200 area.

  9. Not necessarily something that should be done prior to 12.45 but to re-iterate tmfp’s comment from yesterday – Will the Americans look after a 65odd point, out of hours, rise? If not, how much pressure/which tail will be wagging which dog will that put on Euroland? All that assuming that the Dow brick wall at 17070 is still standing.

    1. I think the timing’s good enough not to need to second guess DOW just yet, the press conference details of stimulus etc. will be out before they open.
      Bit of a special day, logic can be safely suspended.

  10. Well, Zero Hour approaches, nicked a handful off 46 and 49, now all square.
    Will be putting on a platform short at +30 on the 12.40 price and a long at -30, looking like around 6175/115 but am only after very very short term swings.
    Watch out for a stop hunt both ways if you’re open.
    GL.
    🙂

          7. Not so sure, let’s see how big the hangover is.
            Not one close on 1 min over 200 yet, still hanging in there.

          9. took 10 on it anyway.
            The usual MO would be an attempt at new highs before the DOW I guess, but I’m not interested in an anticipatory long.
            Sit on hands time for me.
            If we do hit new highs this pm, I’d still be favouring 6250 as a poss shorting area.

  11. Afternoon all,nearly missed it,Thanks for the clarification there tmfp,hope the property thing is going well,I know the european system is a bit different,but in many ways it’s better than the UK one.no gazumping anyway.

      1. Sorry to hear that,Gozo people always had a rep for being clannish.Like trades and buses though,always another property 🙂

        1. I’m not interested in buying a place abroad full stop.
          I resisted all those Tuscany, France, Florida and Spain buying sprees my friends went on, there’s negligible capital appreciation now and I like to go different places when I take a break.
          Good hotels are dirt cheap these days and I want to ride my motorbike and sleep under the stars when I feel like it, not Ryanair off to some expat hell.

          1. got you,not so keen on Ex Pats myself,especially the NGO type.Bit different for me,dont think of the UK as home.

          2. I like being a Stranger in a Strange Land, second identities don’t interest me.
            Anyway, at my age my next home from home will probably be called Green Acres and have a BUPA sign on the gate.

          3. 🙁 No….,if you are going to Bupa get on HGH,have a look at Stallone Working out on YouTube,Guy on CNBC last week said his goal is 30more years and by then if you have the money there might not be a cutoff as long as you dont mind living in a new body 🙂 We could all be Midgets and beat the Sales Tax on adult clothing 🙂

  13. Just watching from the sidelines. 40 point 5 min candle with the price now holding. 57% of IG are short. This is looking very bullish for a break of the range.

  15. The higher we go the harder the fall! and I’m an optimistic Bull!! That bike pump is glowing Red hot!

    1. Well we have seen Nicks 6205 ( all but 0.2 ) will we see 6260…..?good excuse for the Dow to get some altitude on open?

      1. Fly me to the moon……past Jupiter and Mars…….now about all this debt! Knackered global economy,China,don’t people have short memory’s when they are having a feeding frenzy?

        1. That is so annoying to miss it by 0.2 …..unlucky Nick…..Murphys law bites again unfortunately.

  17. Bloody internet went down. Got taken out at 6200, bottled it and paid 90 back for them. Running the 75 short with the rest of Dave

    1. Hi Boris meet the team…..we could start a five a side team soon when Brian comes back from injury……Cliff is substitute and warming up on the sidelines.

    2. Boris lol.
      What happened to Trading 101, never get attached to a position?
      A mate breeds pigs, originally for the meat, now has 12 pets because his mrs gave them names.

      1. How’s Brians recovery tmfp?are you salivating at the mouth yet or waiting and watching?im not convinced just yet but since the highest we got since August last year was 6450 ish it’s looking interesting.

        1. Nah anstel, Brian is very much an ex parrot.
          This recent period has confirmed it for me, no more overnight positions prey to Chinese whims and 100 point gaps, just pottering along intraday suits me fine.
          Remember, one’s view on global stuff in no way translates into profitable trading.

          1. Yeah that’s true….it is just a computer game after all….Reality has nothing to do with it……and it is an election year…….

        2. Sorry,but why will the Americans will wake up,hear about free european money and decide to have a down day ?

          2. I tend to agree WSF I would have thought its a great excuse for the Americans to man the pumps at open and they don’t usually miss opportunities but when they get tired maybe some downside later.

          4. Yeah,I still dont like this area,but someone was talking about being at the 61.8 retrace on the Dow last week and with Dax it is still 400 points away,so there is plenty of room for the Germans to start Dancing too.Dont know about the Fed next week,but they dont seem to want it down either,so if it stays up now then maybe it will be up until after the Fed ?

          5. What puzzles me somewhat is why they let it drop to 5500 only to push it back up here….. so it dropped from 7120 ish to 5500 in 9 months…..because it was becoming clear monetary support was not forthcoming……now all of a sudden it’s being supported…….Think tmfps RSI is good because it pretty much works whatever way the markets are being steered. We need a new indicater…..a BSI.

          6. Don’t get “they” fixated, anstel, there’s many “theys” all with different agendas, unless you’re going all David Icke on us.

          7. Yes who knows,maybe it really was a fall started by Oil Country wealth Funds dumping stuff to raise cash and everything else was hype.We stopped tracking China fast enough anyway.The thing is there are people who would know who is selling and who is buying,so presumably its only really a mystery to us 🙂

  20. Afternoon
    Called away for work stuff.
    The same indicator that crossed at 6118 is still positive atm …just 6183..

  22. And here we are again 6150, as if nothing happened, and here am I again, shorted the hype and covered too early. 🙁

    “The central bank surprised analysts and investors by saying it would also offer four-year loans to commercial banks under an arrangement that would pay the banks interest on money they lend to businesses and consumers.”

    Totally logical, creating deflationary fiat and currency wars to stimulate inflation. FFS.

    2. All with you matey and am a little cross with myself for panicking at 6200. Hey ho, Dave’s columns are filling up with blue, I wonder whether we’ll test that 6110/6120 and have a bounce from there.

    3. That’s interesting tmfp. That would mean that it’s actually costing the central banks money to supply the funding…..if I have it correct with QE the central banks where buying sovereign debt and bonds and then the government…..(read the taxpayer) were paying interest to the central bank so we all work for the central bank In reality making them richer……but now they want to give some back……what’s their angle?

  25. bloody missed the fun part just now.
    I am ready with my short gun at 90 and 200 again if we get there again:-)

    2. Cliff made the wrong choice unfortunately.he got a bit intimidated by all those big green candles and a Dow open round the corner…..oh well.

      1. as I understand Dow opens at 14.30, your message was at 3.14 after Dow open.
        Don’t tell me I am wrong cos I will go mental. I was specifically asking about it in the past and it was an aswer: 14.30 Dow open.

          1. Just noticed your comment Jack…….so I thought I would clarify………the ECB interest rate decision was at 12.45 the Ftse hit 6204.8…….. I was uneasy shorting because we still had the ECB policy meeting at 13.30……… The Ftse was around 6192 about 1.35 but I didn’t want to short it because the Dow opens at 14.30 and I thought we could go higher.i was going to call my short Cliff but I didn’t take the trade……Nick had a short called Boris but he did take the trade short at 6200……… Nick mentioned later that Boris did well and I just replied that I had bottled out of my short which I was going to call Cliff just to join all the fun naming shorts,,,,,,,,hope that clears it up,the Dow does open at 14.30 GMT.

  30. I think RSI could work well trading them with support and resistance levels. I am not sure if they will work as well in random areas.

    Been following PIA signals since yesterday. Not traded them but they got stopped out on 60% to 75% of trades triggered. Maybe they were two of their worst performing days, but not good at all.

  31. As long as the DOW holds around 17050/60 I reckon it’s set up for another good bounce as the day goes on. FTSE long at 32, 20 pt stop.

    1. Well, tmfp you are on the right track as it’s nearly time for a DOW rally 3.30/4.00.
      I think I will wait for long 20 or short signal around 50
      GL

    2. Nope, out for nowt, neutral.
      All depends on whether you think that was a false break above the previous 75 resistance, a pull back to 60 would have said no, but now at 25 it’s a bit too deep.

  32. What happened to the market today? I cannot recall from my memory such amazing spikes and rejections. 300 points up and down on dax. (I don’t have a clue as I haven’t seen charts for 3 days). Will it continue falling or will go up to 10000 again? Not sure about loading a long or short here.

  35. MHH, another one.
    Like it or not we’re still holding 6100, it always looks crap at previous lows but that bounce didn’t last.
    Despite therapy, short at 10 15 pt stop lets have a melt down.

        2. out of balance for pennies, dip could go to 50’s
          edit: has gone
          Long 58 for a bit of last minute short covering 5 pt stop

          3. That’ll do, +20, although I think the yanks could continue for a bit, they have to crack their lovely downtrend first though

  38. Nick….you pretty much nailed this weeks market…..very impressive….you mentioned 6000 this week too…..I take my hat off to you Sir.

  40. Just walked back in – please don’t ask where I’ve been. So saw far more than I expected on the 75 short, closed it at 080, nice. Rest of Dave will be running with manual trails. 6000 is acheivable and just after the announcement I had a bet with someone here, 5850 at some stage next week. Will be in the pub tonight.

      1. Thanks mate, it’ll pay for Bert, Dave’s older brother, the short I cut the other week.

  41. Waited a long time for this level never thought this would come today after those spikes but it has now and heavy long on the Dax at 530 with stop at 460. Risking a week’s profit on this trade expecting 10K.

    Well 560 came before 10K 🙂

      1. Why not Jack, looks cheap… 🙂
        I wouldn’t be surprised to see it in the blue tonight. I’d bail it asap when it does, but I reckon the dust might be settling for now. (FLW)

        1. I thought so, tmfp, so I risked with “follow ups longs” (strategy I used when I mess about tbh) and gained some £ here. But now I am out of trades. First long 9545 and lower add ups. Closed gradually and the last one at 526. Had some win in total. But not going long at this charts layout, today.

      3. yeah went long..not looking good at the moment after a 60 point paper profit. lets see tomorrow if it doesn’t get stopped out. This was a planned trade for days so sticking to it.

        1. What do you mean by paper profits? It looks quite an attractive idea to me too. I hope it will work perfectly well for you.

          1. It showed an initial profit of 60 points before it came crashing down but I have my risks defined and as I always say outcome of a trade is an unknown. Having said that I have reduced my position size with a 10 point profit now. It was quite big for my account and also a bit greedy not to have taken some profit earlier.

  42. Played well today. Days like these are rare but feels great when you have them. Went long from 6125 and captured much of the gain, then shorted near 6200. No doubt will give much or all of it away over coming days. I remember having a whole great week couple of months weeks ago on the FTSE. I was long, short, then long again almost perfectly. That’s been the highlight of my trading career so far. Shame it didn’t last as far as the FTSE trades are concerned. Gave back all of it and some. Still, trading stocks pretty well.

    2. Great arrows today from Nick. That’s when you need to follow them. Today was a brilliant opportunity for you.

  43. Nice bearish close, big red body right at the bottom of the range, stoch crossed the 80 and also below the 20d sma for the first time in what seems like an eternity. Of course, it means nothing without follow through, and I didn’t get the divergences I would have liked. Nonetheless, George awakened briefly from his slumber in the corner to lend an approving nod, before bowing his head once more. One swallow doesn’t make a summer according to him.

    1. Would be nice to see Nas break my other (probably incorrectly drawn) trendline. It has been rather weak in the face of the DOW performance this week, which in a way could possibly considered a divergence of sorts (if you’re in the business of finding indicators to fit your narrative!).

      Any comments on that trendline?

  44. Combining day trading and doing other work is so hard. It so difficult to focus on anything after a hard day expending energy focussing on these market movements. I tell myself not to day trade as I keep putting back my main priority. But this is all a bit too addictive. Win or lose.

  45. Short closed. Nice knowing that the week long wait returned me a nice healthy profit. Happy man.

    1. Well persevered rich, I obviously didn’t put you off too much with my doubts earlier in the week.

  46. To be fair, my success today was in no small part to Nicks’s summary and the helpful comments everyone here comes up with. Reading comments here on a daily basis allows you to keep on top of the market. What might or might not happen. Going into trades well planned rather than pretty randomly gives you the best possible chance. Won’t always work but at least you’ve given yourself every chance. Hopefully I can maintain this success I had today. Neeed to be highly selective with the trades because I prefer swing type rather than scalping. I will become a paid member of this site in a month or two to hopefully take my trading to the next level.

  47. Can someone explain how the Dax lost 450 points this afternoon? Have just gone long on it aiming for a big rebound tomorrow

  48. Thanks Tmfp. I was going to wait till 6000 but I think that was the greed within me…more then happy with my profit.

    1. Well if its true that Draghi saying further Rate cuts are unlikely at the Press conference is what turned it down then we have learnt that going long Autocues and earpieces could be the trade for the 21st century 🙂 🙂

      1. Well unless someone posts something interesting on Twitter this may keep going south hey…….

      2. “will only cut interest rates again in the most extreme of circumstances.”
        I think was the quote. What a lose/lose thing for someone of his experience to say.

        1. Might be a lost in translation thing then 🙂
          Germans are saying he will cause a european property bubble not inflation.

          1. Which, seeing as Germans own most of it already, would not be entirely unwelcome. Maybe that’s where the DAX money is going, nice little farmhouses in Gozo.

  52. Hahah don’t know what to do next. Going to weigh it up later. Do fancy a visit on 5800 over the next few weeks tho

    1. Up a bit,down a bit, up a bit ,didnt take advantage of that move at all really,no excuses either because it was easy to stick an EMA on the Dow all the way down as a guideline,next time.How has your day been ?

        1. Yes,not many methods that work well in all Mkt conditions.
          Talking of which RSI on the Dow at the moment seems to be working.

  56. Once we get some positive sentiment and momentum returning I would have thought we could get back into Nicks Raff channel at 6067 at least.The bottom of today’s bianca channel 20day was 6082….. I know this is not the cash market but with the Dow 300 ish down on the day I think they may want a more positive close. This technical analysis is more influential than I at first thought…..lots to learn but enjoying the process.

          1. Little counter trend dip there of about 10 points on tmfps RSI 10 overbought.Dow doesn’t like it above the 200sma on the 2 min either but if it can break that could be on for 17000.

          2. That’s the 200 SMA pushed through on the Dow 2 min with one of our old favourite authentic rally’s possibly….. Everyone gone to bed ?

          3. Nope I’m here,was with you on that Dow for the last 34 points.Missed some of the earlier stages,flash module crashed 🙁

          6. Nice,I’m just going in and out of the Dow,bit cautious,watching 1,5 and 15.RSI and Fibs on the 15 for timing too.

          7. Or very often it seems to rally as soon as the spread widens…..20.59pm for Ftse grey market.

          8. Tell you what I have been a bit surprised by Australia out of hours holding up today and Dax out of hours lagging so much now.

          9. The RSI is pretty much neutral on the 2 min Dow but I think it’s got a spring in its step.

          10. I have not been watching the Australian market but the Dax is very sensitive….it seems to want some proper confirmation from the Americans before it makes any strong upward moves……they are not stupid the Germans.very aware of the situation.

          13. Day chart too,Dax is still below the Jan resistance.Whenever that goes it should be a good session.Maybe the Fed will give the world something next week to help lol.

          15. Well the Dow is closing above the Tues close ,so that makes Europe look like it over did it .

          16. Anybody would think that there was a link between some of the market participants and the SB companies the number of times the market rally’s after we get the wider spread.Yeah you can take your profit but it’s gonna cost you more LOL !

          17. 🙂 Well it’s going to be an interesting end to the week,although it probably wont look like much on a Weekly chart.

  57. Just away from trading talk, I really think the UK should stay out of the EU. Even that we are a not a fully fledged member have still ceded so much control to those beauracrats. These guys sitting in European Parliament have so much influence on our laws and the judges at the European Courts of Justice are allowed to overrule our own. This once mighty nation, builder of empires, creator of great offshoot nations like the US, Australia, among others are all but just another player. In fact, if anything we are now in the shadows of Germany and France, both of which tend to hold much more sway within Europe. Economically we might benefit, although that’s debatable since Britain has done better than EU members in recent years, but politically and socially the whole EU project is a distaster.

    1. I don’t think we will be coming out of the EU……quite agree with you it’s not good for the UK..I would think if they disbanded the EU it would be better for each country concerned……but hey it’s opposite world remember.

  58. Hello chaps just popped in to see how the night shift’s going.
    Got the expected bounce then, nice longs there anstel, missed my 5999 buy by a few points.
    A rally back to near 6100 would be a good sell in the morning I reckon, revisiting the scene and all that.

    1. Evening tmfp longs are working well thanks…….I think thanks to you and some other chaps on here,and in no small part to Nick explaining the Raff channels and Bianca channel I’m getting to appreciate the technical analysis side more albeit slowly…..WSF has explained some chart patterns over the weeks and I’m getting to appreciate it more…….There’s a book by John Murphy on technical analysis I’m thinking of getting to have a read through but it’s a slow process getting it all to sink in and become automatic.i will keep chipping away…..your mantra about getting a good entry and getting some blue ink fast is very good advice…..like in car sales…..bought right is half sold…….have a good night tmfp.

  59. anstel, thanks for reply. I must have been reading it (at 3:34) under pressure so missed the plot. But if suddently Dow open changes, please let me know. LOL

    1. Will do Jack…..bear in mind when the clock changes to British Summer Time later this month on 27 th March that we put the clocks forward 1 hour but the Dow Operates on eastern standard time (EST) which is 5 hours behind us so I think the Dow will open at 13.30 (1.30 Pm) our time after 27th March…..to the best of my knowledge….The easy way to check is watch what time the spread changes to 1 point from 4 points :0)…..Thats what I do if I’m not sure…… .good luck Jack.

      1. Hey Jack you’ve got me wondering now ……in America they have eastern standard time (EST) and then on 13th March they change it by moving their clocks forward to daylight saving time (DST) bloody hell I thought trading was hard but working out all the clock changes from GMT and EST to BST and DST……..I’m going to bed so from 13th March check the spread on the Dow and see what time it changes!!!! That should work till 27th March then check the spread again….LOL…I’m pretty sure when it all settles down in April the Dow opens at half past one by an English clock that’s set right…..bloody hell I’m off to bed now…my brain hurts!

      2. You see, I got you confused in the end. That’s what it felt like a while ago. I didn’t understand why suddently the time changed for Dow in the past but just ignored that fact then. Now I will bear it in mind, thanks, anstel

  60. If we take Draghi at his (dumb) word re interest rates and look at all the free stuff then Bank Shares once again ? Anyone got an opinion.

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