23rd January 2017
FTSE 100 Support 7162 7144 7121 7084 7033
FTSE 100 Resistance 7184 7197 7227 7234 7277 7306
Good morning. Well the inauguration all went smoothly after all, and the first few hours of the Trump presidency saw Obamacare dismantled and the dollar weaken, which took the FTSE 100 down to just above the 7175 support area that we had on Friday. Bounced a little bit there to end up around 7190 ahead of the weekend. However, we have dropped back a bit during the Asia session, with the dollar weakening a bit further. As the GBPUSD rate climbs (its up to 12442 now) the FTSE will dip back a bit. Interestingly though the FTSE 100 is now right on the 25ema on the daily chart at 7165, which is “usually” a good spot to enter a swing trade. That said, it could do anything early this week while things settle down, with support here at 7162, then 7144 and 7080. If the bulls are going to take back control then they need it back above 7234.
FTSE 100 Outlook and Prediction
To start with I am expecting Friday’s weakness to continue, especially as we have broken 7175 out of hours. This is despite the fact that we are sitting bang on the 7162 25ema daily support area. We have the bottom of the 10 day Bianca at 7144, and the 10 day Raff at 7121, so may even see both of these levels today, especially if gold continues to rise, the dollar continues to weaken and the general sentiment remain bearish. In my 2017 outlook I had a dip down during the first quarter of the year to 6500 so have still got that in the back of my mind. If we dip down to 7150 today, then it is worth a small tentative long there for any bounce, following the ASX200 pattern for today which had a dip and then a slow bounce.
Generally the picture still looks bearish, with the 2 hour chart surrendering its slightly bullish stance from Friday and now bearish again, with resistance at 7184. The bulls will need to break this, then 7234 to enable any sort of upwards trajectory to stick, but they definitely have the odds against them currently. Despite that, I have plotted a bit of a dead cat bounce on the prediction chart from the 7150 level so we will see if that plays out, otherwise I am thinking a trip to 7085 is on the cards if 7144 breaks. If it does then worth flipping to short.
Certainly interesting times, though despite the rhetoric I think that UK/US relations will remain strong.
Morning.
You can’t beat a Monday morning shake out, hopefully to set up an interesting week after what looked like dire conditions for day traders over the last month (which I luckily missed, sitting on a beach).
It’s all down to where you see support now.
38.2 fib is 7100ish. Daily RSI is plummeting (after becoming super sensitised by the small candle action of the new high rally) and will probably start hitting oversold around the same area.
Currently attempting a bounce off 7130 which I think is too early to long despite being October’s previous high, although it may hold for a while. I will be working off the short side selling bounces, but not getting too rabid.
Thanks tmfp. Probably will get a bounce at some point soon. Gold coming off a bit this morning, and SP climbing/holding steady
I guess that the value of the $ is going to be one of the most important factors for a while.
A weak dollar and by implication a stronger £ will likely put pressure on the FTSE, but also make commodities continue their 2016 bull run and boost that segment of the FTSE.
Although the Trump has got in as a plain speaker, I think his ad hoc approach will make for confused signals and hopefully some increased volatility in equities.
Time for a little short punt or two from 60 for me.
Just shorted Dax at 11600 as well
Got a target tmfp?
out at 50, see if it bounces
Morning all, I’m not convinced we have Seen an end to the bullishness yet this year…I’m sitting on the fence for a bit…..good luck……
That’s a brave prediction in January 🙂
Watch out for piles.
Don’t worry ive got the cream for those :0)
I agree. Once they all realise that its not the end of the world, it will carry on up. I think hat 2017 will end a lot stronger.
They all said it was the end of Britain if it voted Brexit and that never happened.
I think it’s a bit early to call on both fronts personally.
The extended bull run in equities has been based on continuing globalisation and CB support.
If Brexit and Trump are the early signs of isolationism, protective trade tariffs and weakening influence of Draghi and co, who knows where we might end up.
Rewatched “The Big Short” yesterday, so feeling a bit Zerohedgy.
and tonight you should watch “The Wolf of Wall Street” 🙂
lol or “Margin Call”.
With cable at 1.2453 there is plenty of possible downside to encourage another possible Ftse rally….
Agree there. I’m running a cable chart along side FTSE and DAX, might be tempted into a bit of hedging.
Got to keep busy or I’ll go down my lawyer’s office with an Uzi.
Well, scrabbling for technical insights, all I can come up with is on the cash 2 hourly, a possible back to back exhaustion set up, with an engulfing candle.
IF we hold this 60ish level till noon and then kick on a bit, then maybe the 230 pt decline could be over for the time being, with 200 the first upside target.
For me, this ticks a couple of boxes that I look out for.
It’s the third try at getting some support traction going, which more often than not succeeds, and there’s a nice fat overnight gap that could do with filling.
I haven’t convinced myself yet though.
Pretty much bang on cable/FTSE correlation…..
Bulls need to break that 7174 area for the moment as got some 2 hour resistance there also
Yeah, and failed.
50ish should hold if my theory holds any water. Trying a small long.
Pump in support of the new Prez……?
Not a clue, I’ll take +11 and leave them to it.
Nice one. Hard to call isn’t it
Verging on the impossible.
I’m trading very defensively, trying to identify the day’s possible mood and then adapting as it goes along to scalp with the help of rsi.
If I can nick 50-100 points a week with very tight stops then that’ll do me nicely.
Definitely!
Longs get interrupted today. 11582 cannot develop into something decent. I’m giving up.
Break even based on safe. I think it’s finally dropping on Dax. Nick, have you still got your short on Dax?
Not anymore, closed it at 11575
It makes sense: support there. 🙂
I’m long from 55 and holding…..
I’m skipping long today. My technicals changed on 10 min. Too risky. There’s always another day. FTSE also looks risky for long. But it’s up to you. I’ll have a look at 6 p.m. what happened.
Hi Jack Happy New Year………just have to see how it pans out…..it’s certainly a little nervous at the moment….
Happy New Year to you too, anstel. I should have gone short after all as I felt it might break 75 on DAX, but I’m too slow today after the dentist, she did an injection or something. Not too brave today 🙂 although technically should have gone. Are you still holding 55? I need to dash now.
Still holding at the moment Jack down just over 15 pts at this present moment……
Well, 15 points on FTSE is big for me. Oh, missed my 50 points on Dax today, sad.
Looking at the DOW chart, you’d never guess that there’d been a change of Administration and President.
Stuck in a messy down corridor on the 4 hour, ain’t going nowhere up till it makes and holds a new short term high of 850+. This swing down should really extend into the high 600’s again by the middle of the week.
That might be accompanied by a weak dollar which would make the FTSE weak also.
Longed the rsi at 48 and happy to take a couple.
Shaping up for a bit of pressure into the close by the looks of it.
Totally neutral/not a clue now.
7148 on FTSE is that?
If it was Dow, then Wow: 48!!!