Doesn’t look good for bulls, unless 6520 holds today

Good morning. Well a pretty bearish day in the end yesterday, typically just missing the shorting area at 6670 I mentioned before dropping to a low of 6515. Typical! We had brief respite at the 6530 area where I took that risky long which saw a small bounce of 20 or so, before the bears came out again. For today 6520 looks to be the key area, if we break that then we could be on for the bigger dip to near 6400 mentioned last month. If it holds then we could pretty easily head towards the year-end target I have of 6800. It could well hold as we are still testing the bottom of the various daily channels and such a sharp drop on nothing major news wise is probably manipulated before a rise.

Asia Overnight from Bloomberg

Asian stocks fell after the yen strengthened and valuations on the regional equities gauge climbed to a six-month high, with investors awaiting U.S. job data this week that may provide further evidence as to when the Federal Reserve will reduce stimulus.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slid 1 percent to 140.33 as of 2:12 p.m. in Hong Kong, with all 10 industry groups on the gauge falling. More than $8 trillion has been added to the value of global equities this year, the most since 2009, as central banks took steps to shore up economies worldwide. Fed policy makers meet Dec. 17-18 after minutes of their last meeting in October showed they may reduce $85 billion of monthly bond buying should the U.S. economy improve as they anticipate.

“Valuations have made equities, along with precious metals, the asset class most vulnerable to the early stages of a change in monetary policy,” Ric Spooner, Sydney-based chief market analyst at CMC Markets, said in an e-mail. “Buyers are becoming circumspect at current valuations and are prepared to wait for pullbacks before adding to portfolios.”

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 9.6 percent this year through yesterday as central banks boosted stimulus to support growth globally and China’s economy showed signs of stabilization. The gauge traded yesterday at 14 times estimated earnings, the highest level since May, compared with multiples of 16.2 for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index and 14.9 for the Stoxx Europe 600 Index, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

US

Futures on the S&P 500 Index added less than 0.1 percent.

The Commerce Department will release data tomorrow on new U.S. home sales and the central bank will publish its Beige Book, which provides policy makers anecdotal accounts of business activity from the Fed districts. Reports on third-quarter gross domestic product and November non-farm payrolls are also due this week.

U.S. employers probably hired 181,000 workers in November after adding 204,000 in October, according to a Bloomberg News survey of economists before the Labor Department report Dec. 6.

FTSE Outlook

ftse 100 prediction
ftse 100 prediction

With prices testing the bottom of the various daily channels and after the drops to start December I am still expecting a bounce, which may come today. We have already started that as I have been writing this, climbing towards the daily pivot at 6553. I expect a pause here, possibly 6558, and then if we get another dip, a buying level at 6520 could present itself. Yesterday and Monday’s falls look overdone, and slightly manipulated in all honesty, probably to get the early “well its December, it must rally” buyers. If 6520 breaks then it will drop even further I feel, probably to 6450. It won’t be long before we need to be brave and buy the dips again!

277 Comments

  1. Lol..Nick’s playing safe…the lines on the graph to 6560 have already played out early this morning. Just before 8am..:-)

          1. 6547 to be exact… so, rise to 6553 then drop to 6520. Pretty much nailed it? Don’t understand why you are upset about it? I analyse, send it round to members at 07:15, then post here publicly at 0900 so you might pick up some info of use? I used to wait till 11am to post it, was just being nice posting it at 0900 instead.

          2. Thanks Nick 🙂 It’s the markets…driven insane by them this year…even my family are commenting why I am so negative all the time, especially in the last few months 🙂 lol…

        1. A small DCB from around 6510-20 of 30-40 points was a virtual certainty, given the 200 point or so fall recently. 😉

      3. Well, I like short scalps, when it falls I buy the tops and close as soon as the rejection happened. Fast money, risky, exciting etc. That’s what I do best and this is how I get my money back (this is one of my strategies but not the main one). But when I try to get a long lasting trades it always goes wrong and if it goes right I tend to close it a bit sooner than others would do. So in the end, if I make little profits anyway why not doing these short scalps?
        Stop losses are involved here too, it’s not completely reckless.
        Do you think this style of trading is what I can do or it’s just a waste of time?
        But lack of time???

    1. I have to say, my indicators are saying exactly the same thing lol 🙂 Tough one to call… as always lol 🙂

  5. FTSE struggling again, sellers keeping it pegged, doesn’t seem that the shorts are in no rush to cover….

  10. Thinking that 6510 may prove to be the bottom, but would not like to be long for any length of time just yet

  11. My prediction last week was that the Santa Rally wil commence around the 16th this time. 2 full weeks of slow drift up. Use these first 2 weeks as a good buying opportunity. 6530 is a good medium term entry point. Don’t think we will hit 6400, but the next level is 6435.

      2. For the Dow I felt we needed to see 15,800. We got bit of a bounce yesterday at the close so not sure if we will see it now this year……but that would be my level.

  12. Btw – not boasting but just for information as I have posted my previous pnls. November was a moderately poor month on the FTSE for me – down 1.2% (leveraged return – 17.2%). However compensated by good returns on the Dow and HSI so that overall was up 12% leveraged returns for the month. YTD P&L now stands at 155%.

    1. Javed…you now need to think of a fancy name for when you
      open your own hedge fund..I hear Steven Cohen is looking for a job..you may want him to be your tea boy! 🙂

      1. Sorry been busy Javed..nice to hear from you..hope you are well..when I get a chance I will send you the stunning photos of my Scotland Highland’s break last month. Anyone else who wants to see the stunning highlands please leave your e mail, I will forward them to you as well 😉

      2. Haha Ray – Yes I’m toying with a number of names but it must have the words Algorithmic, Relative, Systematic & Equities – Trading in the title – but wasn’t happy with the abbreviation…..haha

        Email me sometime mate.

  13. Is 6520 going to hold here, moving sideways at the moment. I cannot decide to go long or short ? so staying on the sidelines at the mo

    1. Have a look at other indices Simon, see if there is any arbitrage between them…French CAC 40? Or look at any equity or forex anomolies that have occurred or may transpire later, data due out from US, so everything will move later, as always! 🙂

    2. risky one aint it :P,
      i like the one with strongest bearish views on ftse currently and i’d think prob best to short around 6550ish

        1. more like it 🙂
          even id agree with a long at 6521 for intraday profits 🙂
          but if i had to go long id wait till 6510 but i guess u probably have better view on long than i do..im blinded by bearishness of ftse !

  15. FTSE/1 hr. bounced a little between about 19:00 yesterday evening and 07:00 this morning. But momentum is weakening and the odds on an immediate descent to ≈6500 increasing. At the latter level, freefall will have resumed, stressing 74% of relevant IG open positions. 🙁

    1. Jim..u have to be very careful when looking at open positions on IG because it does not portray if there will be a bounce or not..
      if we boucne from 6520 level i can almost guarantee u that those open position level will drop …
      and then u end up in dilema of will the market keep going up or go back down?

    1. senu i didnt say i was long sorry for misunderstanding..i said if u were longing its better to do at 6510 than 6521 (atleast 6510 is S1)

  17. Today is another significant POMO day – $2.75 – $3.50 billion. Yesterday’s effort seems to have had no impact …

  19. Positive divergences with RSI starting to appear in 30 min/1 hour and hopefully in 4 hourly with a close below or on this levels

  20. Don’t expect much movement today as I said yesterday, personally think this will be a short lived drop, ftse around 6450 area, today would be a good day to buy a few dips for the short term of course Santa rally. Got long average 6556 atm, with a long open at 6520 target 6560 might see tomorrow before further declines.

    Cheers Nick most of us appreciate early posts-thanks

  23. Wow 30 points in 10 mins, ridiculous. Can’t trade anymore longs just have to wait it out for a few days…wth

    1. yeah ahwab just sit it out…better save the money than lose it.
      plus u know there will be more opportunities..even shorting ftse is bloody hard now as its constantly moving u never know when the pullback will be or even worse when the reversal will be.
      I know ill probably lose 50 points to close my big short position just because ill think its a pullback but will turn out to be a reversal lol

    2. We just broke the 200 ma. Give them 2-3 more days the most and major reversal.
      History repeating itself

  25. So 73% of IG customers were wrong then 🙂 What a surprise lol 🙂 Beginning to wish I had shorted the FTSE, DAX and CAC. But if I had no doubt it would have soared. But then again, the trends are pointing down. “Never trade against the trend” 🙂

    2. relax, u gonna see another trend very soon :).
      Only 1 trade will wipe ur account but theres infinite trades to make u profitable 🙂
      i like to keep saying it here to reinforce it in my head 🙂

      1. Relax, I never took a position. Had indicators saying the DAX and CAC were going to fall (again!) But wasn’t so sure given yesterday’s pretty big drop.

  26. Well, I like short scalps, when it falls I buy the tops and close as soon as the rejection happened. Fast money, risky, exciting etc. That’s what I do best and this is how I get my money back (this is one of my strategies but not the main one). But when I try to get a long lasting trades it always goes wrong and if it goes right I tend to close it a bit sooner than others would do. So in the end, if I make little profits anyway why not doing these short scalps?
    Stop losses are involved here too, it’s not completely reckless.
    Do you think this style of trading is what I can do or it’s just a waste of time?
    But lack of time???

    1. Jack two, i personally believe if it works for u then great (but play that style for several months and see if ur profitable).
      I used to be like that but was in losses after a couple months, trading multiple times a day. Then i began trading on macro data, made a bit but overal was in losses, and now from all the mistakes i have a new style which i have stuck to for 4 years and works for me now.
      It all depends on what suits u.
      I personally didnt like catching 5-10 pips cus it wouldnt grow my capital at a good rate plus was alot of pressure as i was doing many things at once.
      but hey if it works for u then u dont even need other peoples opinion cus ull be profitable 🙂

    2. So long as you are not placing rash, random, impulsive ‘trades’, that is a sure fire way of losing money. You might ‘get lucky’ over the short term but over the long-term as a ‘strategy’ it is guaranteed to be unprofitable. You might as well play the bookies’ one minute ‘binaries’ lol 🙂

      1. You really have to think through your trade a bit. You want to tilt the odds in your favour 🙂

      2. You have to think with a clear head too and don’t allow emotions to enter into you. There is a lot of psychological barriers to overcome to be successful – we are all human after all 🙂 We have probably all lost money at one point and immediately doubled our money to try and recover it/win it back. And as soon as we are in ‘profit’ we tend to up our bets too. Fear and greed are the enemies. Like Robert De Niro said in casino: “If he wasn’t so f***in’ greedy,
        he’d have been tougher to spot.
        But in the end,they’re all greedy.” 🙂

          1. Absolutely agree. If you have a strategy that works stick to it. When your try impulsive trades FWit is spot on, in the long run you will lose! I have written down the rules I follow for trading…….when I deviate from them I lose!

          2. I agree with what you are saying, it’s just at the moment it seems to be working better than holding trades, but I aim learning to hold positions (Sometimes holding eats my brain so I cannot bear it) and risk with more capital and this is a hard bit. I cannot imagine stop losses like 40 points away, it’s a huge loss for me, but I happily get myself into losses over 40 points and wait for it to reverse and cannot cut it at my original stop losses (say 10 points).
            If I did take my original stop losses I would be in profit now because there are very good entries I make but do not hold. (like long 6515 yesterday evening at 19.20, I only got +9 points but if I held overnight I would have got to +35 points, etc.)
            But it seems that I cannot tolerate any risk but at the same time happily give them money in my losses, it’s paradox.

          3. Being unable to hold a trade though, Jack, is a kind of rookie mistake. You just have to close the trade to release the unbearable tension. It is all in the brain (psychological), you just have to keep pushing until you break through these (psychological) barriers.

      1. In my view dax is coming very close to reversal…dax is coming to a stablization area (im not saying long on dax right now…but that would most likely be a move if i did make it soon)..just a little more retracement and dax will be a bull market

      2. I am seriously p***ed off at ignoring those ‘indicators’ lol 🙂 They could have been wrong for the next year and I would have still been in profit lol 🙂

  29. If it breaks 6470 properly today, then low 6430, but should get a decent bounce from that 6470 area, good resistance from bottom of ascending channel.

  30. like i said yesterday maybe we will see sub 6400..i dont really predict where the market will reverse (dont think anyone can)..but its a guess!

    1. Bears are in control and things tend to exaggerate in both sides. Bears were trying unsuccessfully in past weeks to break the bulls. Now they had there chance. We are now entering that zone… need more sell off so people look pessimist.
      But I have that 200 ma looking in to it.

  31. With such movments over last 3 days id expect my indicator to be a little LESS bearish…but it hasnt budged even 1 bit, meaning we still in a strong bear trend on ftse…

  33. What a day..opened a trade on dax short 9249 stop of 13 points day’s high at 9261..set my limit at 9059. I didn’t get a chance to look at my trade because of work. Good thing to do is set and forget about your trades because I am sure if I had been watching my trade I would closed it prematurely. Keep the stops in and get the emotional factor out !!

  34. I’ll still go for a year end around 6800. Ben will say no tapering at his final speech and leave it for Yellen to announce at the end of Q1 2014, probably March

  35. I have had a power cut…about an hour ago…just phoned..back on at 5.30pm…don’t fancy trading on my Samsung phone..so tmrw now…GLA

      1. But if we reach 6540 I think will go short. Missed that 6550 today that I talked yesterday…was sleeping…saw those levels in the phone but was to asleep to think straight and get up to computer.

  38. DAX 9030 – 55ema – Oct.9 reached = to FTSE low Oct.9.
    Look for 9030 DAX, almost there

  39. Whats funny is that I have a DOW short running you would expect it to drop a lot but at this time and moment its moving less than the ftse which i have a long on. Funny how the market runs!

  40. if we close above 200 ma, still to soon to enter long until I see reverse daily candles. If not, expect crossing the 200 ma in the next days and after that a major reversal to lookout for

    1. QTD – Dow up 4.9%, FTSE just 0.52%
      MTD – Dow down 1.36% – FTSE 2.32%

      Typically the FTSE tends to exaggerate the moves of the DOW or S&P. Maybe next year is a period of catch up for the FTSE as economic data improves in the UK. However would expect the US markets will be flat at best given their stellar rise this year and a tightening of monetary policy. So if the FTSE stands still it may outperform.

        1. FTSE exaggerates the downward movement of the DOW/S&P but trails the upward movement! Why don’t we just trade the DOW!

          1. True – and to a degree that makes sense – given that the tool that has inflated equity prices – QE is far greater in the US. The UK has really only gone up in the early part of this year due to the US….there was no economic eveidence of growth to support it. However now it does appear that the UK may have turned the corner…..just as the US is likely to deflate. Hence why I think the FTSE may outperform next year…..

  47. Dec. 4 (Bloomberg) — U.S. stocks erased losses as data showing U.S. services expanded less than forecast eased concern that the Federal Reserve will cut monetary stimulus.
    The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 0.1 percent to 1,796.74 at 10:12 a.m. in New York, erasing an earlier decline of as much as 0.5 percent.
    The gauge has surged 26 percent this year, challenging 2003 for the biggest annual gain in the last 15 years, as the Fed has refrained from reducing its monthly bond purchases. Central-bank policy makers have been scrutinizing data to determine whether the economy is robust enough to withstand a reduction in their monetary support, which has helped propel the benchmark index higher by 165 percent from a bear-market low in March 2009.
    The Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing index decreased to 53.9 in November from 55.4 in the prior month, a report from the Tempe, Arizona-based group showed today. The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of 67 economists was 55. A gauge above 50 shows expansion.
    Purchases of new U.S. homes surged in October by the most in three decades, signaling buyers are starting to take higher mortgage rates in stride. Sales jumped 25.4 percent to a 444,000 annualized pace, following a 354,000 rate in the prior month that was the weakest since April 2012, figures from the Commerce Department indicated. A separate report from the agency showed the trade deficit in the U.S. narrowed in October for the first time in four months as exports climbed to a record.
    Companies boosted payrolls in November by the most in a year, a sign that U.S. employers were optimistic about demand after the end of a government shutdown a month earlier, a private report based on payrolls showed.
    The Fed has said it will start paring its $85 billion of monthly bond purchases if the economy improves in line with its forecasts. The central bank releases its Beige Book report on economic conditions in its 12 districts at 2 p.m. in Washington.
    The Federal Open Market Committee next meets on Dec. 17-18. Policy makers will probably wait until their March 18-19 meeting before reducing their monthly bond purchases to $70 billion, according to the median estimate in Bloomberg’s most recent survey of economists conducted on Nov. 8.
    The S&P 500’s rally this year has pushed valuations higher, with the gauge trading for about 16.9 times its companies’ reported earnings, up 19 percent from the beginning of 2013 when it traded at 14.2 times profit.
    The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, the gauge of S&P 500 options known as the VIX, rose 3.2 percent to 15.02, the highest level in six weeks. The measure has gained for seven straight sessions, its longest rally since April 2012.

    For Related News and Information:
    Developed Markets View: DMMV
    World stock indexes: WEI
    S&P 500 market map: SPX IMAP
    Top stories on stocks: TOP STK
    Equity screening: EQS
    Graphing: GRAPH
    Feature stories on stocks: TNI STK GREET

    –Editors: Jeremy Herron, Cecile Vannucci

    To contact the reporters on this story:
    Inyoung Hwang in London at +44-20-7673-2394 or ihwang7@bloomberg.net;
    Nick Taborek in New York at +1-212-617-0381 or ntaborek@bloomberg.net

    To contact the editor responsible for this story:
    Cecile Vannucci at +44-20-3525-7032 or cvannucci1@bloomberg.net

  52. This sudden move up will have wiped out a few traders’ profits who have been shorting these indexes all the way down all day (depending on their stop/trailing stop loss of course) 🙂

      1. Hey im short since 6696 so moves like this dont effect me much….ftse is a bear market and we can expect pullbacks… im still looking for short opportunities and im sure we will break 6400 before seeing 6600 :)…
        Thats why above today i said shorting at 6520 is not good, better to do it at 6555…and thats what i am still waiting for 🙂

        1. You are pretty sure, as I was being long. Need to see the close, but even then it you will not remove your judgment.
          After seeing that shooting star did not move me of seeing FTSE higher

          1. im gonna stick to my strategy which has worked for me for years, worst outcome i close on B/E.

          1. Not being greedy…if the signal goes off ill come out (just that i hope the signal to close my positions comes before my entry point)…
            Still think we got a bit of steam left for downward move.

      1. santa in my view is still backing his bags…i think he sent his reindeer out to check out the weather 🙂

        1. Santa’s on his way
          Riding on his sleigh
          Oh what fun it would be
          To book a 1000 points profit on the FTSE..
          Jingle bells, jingle bells
          All the way to the bank… 🙂

          1. yeah lol would be good to catch 1000…
            Im hoping to catch 200 points with 20lots on the up rally …big hope but lets see..cant get too greedy.
            Plus no such thing as a guaranteed santa rally at a specific day…
            im looking at 17th-18th dec for rally to begin

  55. Looking to shoirt at 6555…this i believe is pump and dump…cant expect markets to be falling all the time.

  57. Yes, here we are. Another needle in same place or above (log shadow candle) just after the one that just closed in 4 hourly chart will reinforce that bears are doomed

    1. In my view bears are not doomed…market just making some headroom for more downward motion…stochastics on 4hr show a nice bear move, RSI lifting up on 30mins to make more headroom

      1. My indicator is more bearish on ftse than it has been since the top of ftse…another way to see it..76% of longs on ftse are not winning 🙂

  58. Hashmash you contradicted yourself you said no guarantee date if rally yet you said 17-18th.
    For all we know Santa rally kicked in today , different points of view. Just saying, you could be hoping for more bearishness and see profits go all the while hoping to took them …

    1. I said theres no guarantee of when the santa rally will be…but IAM GUESSING 17th-18th Dec because of Fed meeting…so no contradictions there..

      And i really dont care if my profits are wiped out (as long as i close B/E) knowing i stuck to my strategy..if it happens then i know what i gotta change in my strategy to be more profitable next trade.. I have (had when ftse was at 6496) caught 200 points..not going to regret that its back at 6525..because my strategy saying sell and im sticking to it and not following what others are doing as i do not know how profitable they are; but i know how profitable my trading strategy is from betting money on it….even if i end up closing everything catching 50 points..to me thats a winning trade…u cant hope to catch every point.

      When i am betting in certain direction, i am already planning where i might be reversing my positions (hence thats why u might think im being crazy cus im bragging about how bearish ftse is at the same time thinking of where to long lol)..this helps me to catch as much points as i can).

      We all have different trading style..

  59. Btw DOW will probably end negatively today alongside the other indices so expecting slow dip for the evening

  61. Closed 50% of my longs when it broke 6500 earlier. Quite annoyed as I did expect a pull back all long, I just (as we all) didn’t expect such a quick fall. If we still hit 6800 by the end of December will still have gained 100points for the month which would be lovely. Have not had a losing week in a long time, guess this is ganna be one of them weeks!

  63. FTSE/Daily – I think we’re headed for 6400, ± 50 pts. That doesn’t necessarily mean the end of the journey …

    1. yup..being saying that now myself for a couple days…people have a habit of anchoring on prices.

  64. A little jump and everyone thinks bears are finished..and then we are back at where we were 🙂

    1. I did not said that. Need to see 2nd candle in 4 hourly chart. Look of what I wrote

      1. not point at u PMS dont worry :).
        Lets see how it goes…i wanted to add to short about 3-4 times now and market never reached the point :(…gotta control myself now to not make a bad entry!

      1. Jim i usually use it on 4h and daily level.
        Currently its showing FTSE is a full bear market (Right on the level to indicate it)…
        I mean its an indicator at the end of the day.
        If u look at 4h stoch u can see a bear trend emerging

  65. We may have a new trend line in the block. A 3rd real touch will confirm in next few days. Look at new chart twitter

      1. sorry for my bad translation. Tanks for the remark. It was a straight translation. We say that in our language 😀

  68. lol natwest gaveme £250 compensation for their banking failure. Been given out nationally , just a heads up for those banking with them.

  72. Close short DOW for 140ish pips. Can now hold my ftse longs. Won’t be opening any new positions for the meanwhile. Gl all.

        1. for ftse? Its 6536 now. And it will remain like that, no more trades in the near future lol, cash tied up. =(

  73. Have not been really taking much notice of the indice today, but what reason has been given for these sudden nose dives…. ???

  74. It’s always the same game plan just BEFORE NFP data comes out…a big move either up or down in anticipation and a subsequent one a few days later when they book profits.

    Glad not trading indices…was difficult giving them up after so long…feel vindicated with silly moves like these. Dow down some 350 since last Friday…and Dax, Cac 40 and FTSE also took a beating this week.

    What I find strange is the disconnect in some equities and ftse…there used to be a strong correlation….today FTSE took a hammering and Rio Tinto was up some 80?? Other miners also did not sell off…

    1. Yeah i expect so, 15700 was my target, but i needed funds.
      GL though, ouch that dead cat bounce caught out loads of people…

      1. I was expecting a slow drift down but today’s slide came as a surprise. I suspect big players are cooking something given that events/news coming up next few days. Let’s see. I am going to read/follow too much into support, resistance etc for next few days 🙂

  76. Thanks Ray read something about QE but as far I can see this will not happen till maybe 1 quarter 2014 but still with zero interest rates can’t see anything else apart from stocks.
    Also with the ecb saying that are not ruling out another rate cut it makes you wonder.

  78. FTSE still looking strong bearish even at these levels…makes me wonder if my indicator will show bull sign after a big change has taken place :S or is ftse really going to climb into 6300-6350 region for my indicator to show bulls emerging :S
    trick place to be as im still holding huge short position…really need to decide on my game plan if i should reduce my shorts before NFP.

    1. My indicator in FTSE turned bearish in Nov.7 when emas cross below 4 hourly chart. Since then there were some attempts but never confirmed. And Monday they expanded.
      Slopes with no sign of retrace yet

  79. Do you think the FTSE can stomach another tumultous day tmrw when BOE and ECB give their usual nonsense…I think not…feel for those averaging down from some 270 points…anybody heard from Sriji?? Guy posted here that he was going long ftse £250pp..honest…I think from around 6510…so he must be down some a hell of a lot..he was so sure of a 70 to 100 point rally yesterday…I did warn him…lol…

  81. Think many people have been wipe out this year, resistance and support mean nothing no more, the market were a lot easier to trade a few years back but now it just too much bullshit.

  82. Nice one…Dola is the daddy of course.:-) Anyway…just finished my pizza in takeaway…now off to gym…relaxing sauna and jacuzzi…Hashmash has made a killing.

    .Harrods Xmas shopping for him this week 🙂 Credit to him…guy is cool as a cucumber…even when shorts were turning around and eating his profits..he stood by his guns!! Hardcore discipline..very admirable…he deserves his profits.

    1. haha thanks Ray 🙂
      But yeah i dont tend to go crazy with my trading profits..when i have enough i buy a property so i can retire early (im 24 now)..target is 35 to retire as in no job nothing, sit at home trade for little side money and live off passive income:)…thats what i call a relaxed life with no debt

    1. It`s a bear`s worst nightmare, look at that daily, nothing lol. I for one am expecting a decent drop in mid january.

  84. Know the feeling Ray have been so bloody grumpy this year mostly due to trading got heavily spank on the dax this year.

    1. teach trading? Each to one`s own. Trust me different mentalities, different sized stakes/stops etc. P.S. its too late he`s in a win win situation he sold at the very top – lucky sod.

    2. like ahwab said no one can teach trading..believe me even if u use my signals alot of time u wont agree with it and not do what i say (and i really dont like people using my signal because then my trading mentality changes and i try to trade to impress people…yeah its gay for my brain to function like that but for me trading is a big mental game im playing with myself…trying to control emotions and being confident and humble where i should)…I mean i still give out signals here when i buy/sell but if i know people are asking me on purpose to follow me then if fks up my trading mentality lol..so ur free to follow me (i’d strongly advise u not to hahahaha).

      Just trade with tiny money u can afford to lose..if u cant afford to lose money then u shouldnt trade…u need to be able to have a mentality where u dont care about money at all..u dont put a trade on so u can buy something next week..u put a trade on to grow ur capital..trading is a long term game..like one of the traders said which i really liked “money is the most scarce commodity..protect it with ur life” and this REALLY REALLY helped me with my mentality..stopped me from trading xx times a week to just about 3 times..sometimes i sit out for days and days waiting for an opportunity.
      Another one which people have heard me say here is something i made
      “There are infinite possibilities to make money in the market…but only 1 bad trade to wipe ur account” – this helps me when i have an urge to trade and theres no opportunities out there..stops me from losing unncessary money.

      And i learnt everything the hard way…thinkin i’d get rich from putting on a trade… the most ive lost is just under £XX,XXX in about 2 hours and when u see such losses u wonder if trading is for u…but if u are the type of person to look back and see ur mistakes and learn from them and take everything as a challenege then thats an advantage. and i think u gotta be really really smart to not learn things the hard way..i personally believe in trading things shud be learn through pain such that u dont repeat it.

      its weird to say but in trading for me atleast u have to act like u have nothing left to lose in life…but at the same time u have everything to lose (dont know if that makes sense to others lol)

      just focus on 1 market and trade that…very hard to trade multiple markets at once (for me its impossible, even just trading FTSE i sometimes miss out on some important data which most of the times messes up my pnl)

      1. also be willing to give up some of ur profits cus u might be catchin a big trend.
        I think on average i probably only catach 75% of the profit at MOST ..and thats if im being lucky!!!
        For e.g right now my position the most ive caught is 230 points..am i going to win all of that 230 points? HELL NO!
        I’d consider myself a super winner if i even catch 130 of it!

  87. Nice hashmash enjoy life while you are young, 35 sound a great age to just retire good luck to you mate

        1. I only trade in steps of £10pp.
          and in terms of percentage it really depends because i DONT keep all the money in my trading account.
          its really hard for me to say in percentage wise because i look at the profit ive made last month and since ive started and if im willing to risk a big percentage of the profit or not.

          Its really simple..u trade with the profits 🙂

          For e.g IF santa rally comes and IF i catch it at the start (say 6350) then i only need to risk £1000 @ £20pp (about 45 points i can afford the market to move against me) and i can build my position to £100pp by 6450 and add £X,XXX to back it up. That £X,xxx is the money I am willing to lose on that running position as well as the accumulated profits on the position

          2. yea i spend TINY amounts lol
            i have monthly targets if i go above the targets i treat myself 🙂
            Like if i make £x,xxx in 1 month then i prob take £200-500 pounds for myself thats if i have exceed the target by that much..and even then i only take it out if i really need it.

          3. but yes i have spent a big portion of it on a property if thats what u mean.
            Thats why now im trying to trade even harder to get another property..target is by 2016 should be able to get another one 🙂

          4. and btw dont think im buying some mansions or some shit lol
            im talking in the range of 170-180k flats in zone 4

    2. But i can say i have recovered all my losses from before and have been in profit for a couple years now..

    1. scaring me because this might be good news as people will think that tapering is fine because economy is growing..gotta keep an eye out in the market tomorrow .. any fast big moves up i gotta start cutting my short!

    1. yeah luke once u have a decent account its hard to trade intraday..u not gonna bet £100pp for a 20 point move lool thats just not worth the risk..i dont trade that much intraday. Intraday i think of as opening/managing positions and think in terms of days or weeks.
      VERY VERY hard to get a position in and run it for long period cus bloody markets just all over the place lol.

  93. Hashmash what’s your thoughts on dax looking at having a small long but would rather enter at 9000 as I see this as a solid base.

    1. Hey luke.
      first of all i dnt trade anything but ftse.
      But looking at dax through my strategy.. id stay on the side lines.. as i dnt really follow it i cant tell if its reversing from bull trend or had a pull back n stablizing for another up run.

  94. Apologies for asking a very basic question, but what products do you use for holding a position longer than one day?
    eg – I want to profit from a Santa rally from 15th December to 1st Jan, but if I use a spread bet my broker hits for SWAP interest every night which will wipe out any profits.
    ETFs have no SWAP, but there’s no gearing, so 1% rise in FTSE makes me.. 1%

  95. Thanks Hashmash for all your upfront honest and advice. Appreciate all the regulars too-especially Ray!

    1. Thanks Tee 🙂 Although I must concede I trade equities now primarily, as I found that trading indices was making me go mad. Because FTSE runs till 9pm when U.S. closes.

      I found that I was at my desk 14 hrs a day, 7am to 9pm, plus the 1 hr CNBC post-mortem, so 10pm, 15 hrs!! This way with equities, the day is just 7.30am to 4.30pm, hardcore trading, 100% concentration and very intensive, primarily scalping, and going flat most days.

      I sleep better now and got some resemblance of life back, and am slowly gaining my skills back. I hope to post my account here after 6 months to share with others, it will give an insight as to executed trades, time-frames, strategies, size of trade etc. So the pressure is on, wish me luck..June 30 .. 2014 😉

  97. Col
    Swap interest is only around 3% pa….which for a couple of weeks works out at about 0.125%. So the question is do you expect it to rise by more than that which I’m sure you do.
    The alternative is to buy a future but it will work out the same more or less.

  99. Thanks Hashmash I see this as a pullback at the moment would only see this as a trend reversal if 9000 was broken. Will wait till after ecb tomorrow to see if it’s worthy of a small long.

  100. Hashmash -I was talking about a future through a retail broker……financing included in the price so swings and roundabouts to a degree.
    I use CMC and they charge 2.5% plus or minus base depending on whether you are long or short. So 3% for longs 2% for shorts.

  101. Out of curisity, who trades FTSE in IG, what is your spread between 8 am an 16:30 pm ? and 7 to 8 am and overnight

    1. 8am – 16.30pm = 1point spread (if u trade mini contract then i think its 1.2)
      16.30 – 9pm = 2 point
      9pm-7am = 5 point
      7am – 7.50am = 2 point

      2. thanks hashmash.

        I saw that IG has a new feature called sprint markets.
        Do you know what it is ?

        1. I looked at it once n closed it straight away when i saw u cud bet on where the price will be in 1 min loool
          but not sure entirely

  102. tomorrows plan looking for a pullback..if there is a nice level then im adding to shorts on ftse..area looking to short will be 6545.
    if we hit 6575 im closing 50% of my shorts! gonna take a bit of profit 🙂

      1. I’m with you. Some throwback to upper levels. IHS in 15 min chart with bullish engulfing and consolidation in 1 hour chart
        IHS has a target around 6580 (6480-6530)

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