Dax at 10500 resistance FTSE pushing on but 6440 then 6493 resistance

Support 6404 6390 6385 6367
Resistance 6441 6493 6505 6519
Good morning. Just when the bears thought they were making some headway with that dip yesterday morning from 6393 the bulls come back at them and take it to 6430! As such the general trend is still up with any dips being bought, a pattern quite possibly continuing today as we have the ECB rate decision at 12:45 then Draghi is holding a press conference at 13:30 – will he mention more silver bullets for the future? We also have US jobs data out at 13:30 so likely to get some movement in prices around then.

US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg

  • Euro steady before ECB policy meeting as Aussie strengthens
  • Oil buoyed by declines in U.S. output as silver climbs

Asian stocks rose to a four-month high as oil recovered to levels last seen in November and Chinese steel prices surged more than 5 percent.

All 10 industry groups advanced on the MSCI Asia Pacific Index. Brent crude traded near $46 a barrel after a report showed U.S. production slipped to the lowest since October 2014 and Iraq said talks to freeze output may occur next month. Steel reinforcement bars jumped to a 19-month high in Shanghai, buoyed by a strengtheningChinese property market. The euro was little changed before a European Central Bank policy meeting, after almost wiping out this week’s advance in the last session. Australia’s dollar rose toward a 10-month high.

Global shares have surged 16 percent since sinking to a three-year low in February, buoyed by oil’s recovery from below $30, signs of stabilization in China’s economy and upbeat U.S. corporate earnings. The rally also got a lift as Federal Reserve officials last month cut their forecasts for interest-rate increases in 2016 to two from four, saying global economic and financial developments continue to pose risks.
“Recovering fundamentals and the fact that the Fed is going to hold rates for a while is certainly helping sentiment,” Kirk Hartman, who helps oversee about $351 billion as Los Angeles-based chief investment officer of Wells Capital Management, said on Bloomberg TV. “People are becoming much more positive on China. People are realizing that China isn’t going to have a hard landing.”

General Motors Co., Microsoft Corp. and Visa Inc. are among U.S. companies announcing quarterly earnings on Thursday. Of 83 members of the S&P 500 Index to have reported so far, 78 percent beat analysts’ estimates. In Asia, results are due from China Unicom (Hong Kong) Ltd. and Posco, South Korea’s biggest steelmaker. The ECB is expected to refrain from easing policy at a review on Thursday, after announcing unprecedented monetary stimulus in March. Indonesia’s central bank is also forecast to leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged, after cuts in each of the last three months.

Stocks
Japan’s Topix index rose 1.8 percent as of 1:32 p.m. Tokyo time, set for its highest close in more than two months, as the yen held near a two-week low amid speculation that the Bank of Japan will expand stimulus at a monetary policy review next week. The authority is likely to increase asset purchases, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. analysts wrote in a report published Wednesday. Mitsubishi Motors Corp., which tumbled 15 percent on Wednesday, has yet to start trading owing to a dearth of buyers after the automaker said it manipulated fuel-economy tests.

Benchmarks rallied across the region, with gauges in Hong Kong, Singapore and South Korea climbing to their highest levels of the year. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.4 percent from its lowest close this month, even after billionaire investor George Soros said Wednesday that China’s debt-fueled growth resembles the U.S. in 2007-08, before credit markets seized up and spurred a global recession.
China Mobile Ltd. rose 2.8 percent in Hong Kong after the world’s largest wireless carrier said profit grew in the first quarter as it added 64.2 million 4G customers. BHP Billiton Ltd., the world’s biggest mining company, jumped 3.3 percent in Sydney. Both stocks are the highest they’ve been since November.

Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index gained 0.2 percent, after the measure posted its highest close since Dec. 1. Contracts on the U.K.’s FTSE 100 Index added 0.1 percent.

Commodities
Brent crude, the global benchmark, was little changed at $45.79 a barrel following a 6.7 percent jump over the previous two sessions. It surged 4 percent on Wednesday as the Energy Information Administration reported that last week’s U.S. output was the lowest since October 2014. OPEC nations and some other major producers will meet in Russia, possibly in May, in an effort to agree on an output freeze, Iraq’s Deputy Oil Minister Fayyad Al-Nima said.

Steel rebar futures jumped for the fourth straight day on Shanghai Futures Exchange, advancing as much as 6.3 percent to 2,755 yuan ($425) a metric ton. The product that’s used to strengthen concrete is up 53 percent in 2016. Iron ore futures in Dalian rose to the highest since March 2015.

“You’ve got a tight market, you’ve got momentum, and you’ve got this fundamental driver for steel in the government boosting the infrastructure and housing side of things,” said Chris Weston, chief market strategist at IG Ltd. in Melbourne. “The rebar price is really leading the iron ore price at the moment.”

Silver rallied 1.9 percent, climbing for a third day after entering a bull market on Tuesday. Gold rose 0.3 percent and copper gained 0.1 percent.

Currencies
The euro was little changed at $1.1293, after sliding 0.5 percent on Wednesday, and Australia’s dollar advanced 0.2 percent. The yen strengthened 0.1 percent to 109.76 per dollar, after weakening 1 percent over the last three days.

“Since the beginning of this week, with the recovery in global sentiment, the yen has tended to depreciate to nearly 110,” said Hirofumi Suzuki, an economist at the treasury department of Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp. in Singapore. “Today’s move is just a slight correction. The trend to depreciate is still there.”

Indonesia’s rupiah fell 0.3 percent versus the greenback. All but three of 26 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg predict the nation’s central bank will refrain from cutting its benchmark interest rate at a Thursday review.

Bonds
The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries was little changed at 1.845 percent, after increasing nine basis points in the last three sessions. Inflows into inflation-indexed exchange-traded bond funds this year have already exceeded flows for all of 2015, suggesting investors are growing more bullish that inflation will climb toward the Federal Reserve’s 2 percent target.

The yield on Australian sovereign bonds due in a decade increased eight basis points to 2.61 percent, the highest level in a month. [Bloomberg]

FTSE 100 Outlook and Prediction

FTSE 100 Prediction
FTSE 100 Prediction

Most of todays action will be geared around the ECB and what is said at the press conference later. That said there is a fairly strong bit of resistance at the 6440 area where we have a major PRT line and also R1. Above this the 20 day Bianca at 6493 looks worth a go at shorting for a counter trend trade, though the bears haven’t really been able to do much this week since recovering from the 6270 area first thing Monday. As such, its still buy the dips really and the 30min chart remains bullish. We also have a rising 10min channel in play, with resistance at 6450 and support at 6410, along with rising daily channels. As I said its looking like the 6440 is fairly key, so worth an initial short here on any early rise, but I am also ready to switch to long if that looks like breaking and we are in buy the rumour mode for a rise towards 6500.

164 Comments

  1. Morning Nick! & Thanks.. I would like to ask if I may what should one look for spotting trend reversal..is there any initial sign?

  3. Morning all,compensation for Pollution seems to be like extradition with the US,entirely one way.

          1. Yes, expect press release along the lines of “We must learn lessons and move on.”
            UK buyers are getting stiffed/ignored by VW though.

  4. Morning all.
    Doubt there’ll be much to go for till ECB today, a light drift down/sideways at the moment, no rallies have broken 1min 60 rsi so lower highs so far, but obviously BTD by squeezed nervous shorts will underpin things.
    Got a short on from what looked like a hollow bounce to 12, once again no follow through to the 300’s, but keeping it for a while.
    I see we have UK retail sales at 0930, pretty meaningless in a credit bubble, but even if they’re bad I’d expect them to be ignored like the German PP fail yesterday.

    2. I know Tmpf you use RSI but what is your average S/L? and do you also sometime add to losing one to make it around average?

      1. Hi sharma, depends on the circumstances completely.
        I always use a stop, sometimes platform, sometimes self operated but if I think the situation warrants it I’ll re enter straight away or average.
        I’m not the best person to ask for hard and fast rules, I make it up as I go along really.

          1. I did dare to dream about this happening but quickly dismissed it as a reality fantasy. Wish I still had my 6412 short…..
            This is the third visit to the 60’s, and based on that and the fact it looks so awful I’m trying again at 60 and 50 stop 42.

  8. Oh here we go it’s end of the world stuff again…..what’s it going to be then 5500 or 6500…..Mr P uses DC motors in his equipment……works just as well in either direction which doesn’t make our job any easier of course…..all part of the game…

      1. Yeah but muggins here got fomo’d ( new favourite term cheers tmfp ) at 04….. Small though this time

          2. You’re getting a bit emotionally invested in this rally matey.
            Talk us through that 04 long…target? time frame? Dare I say it….stop?

          3. Nothing really to say tmfp…..I’m just having a laugh buddy…….I remembered what you said about running out of bullets so I figured 04 was pretty safe…..OK so it dropped a bit more….All it means is that the demand for shares now is reduced so the buying pressure drops….probably because people don’t want to buy before Mario mutters……Stops at 6300….. Don’t give me a b@llocking please matey….this BS p@sses me off the way they play with people’s emotions….it’s a game…..The trend is firmly up at the moment…..make no mistake…just Psychological games going on….get yourself long buddy ……….I reckon so anyway best of luck……

  9. Wonder what Mario has up his sleeve in 2.5 hrs? Ummn they will dream up something positive…..can’t bloody imagine what though…..my head hurts.:0( time for a walk in the sunshine with a head up display on my sunglasses just in case :0)

        1. There’s only one thing flowing round here and I can tell you it’s not bloody candles……looks like I might be down a pair of boxer shorts too….that vanish is not as good as it’s cracked up to be :0)

          2. Get a grip anstel, is this the man who was gleefully watching 10400 break yesterday? It’s barely under that now….

          3. Like I say tmfp I’m just joking because I thought it would get everyone laughing….Chilled out here….it’s going up and it won’t kill me if it doesn’t……what does that Mr Kriel say……you have to respect money but be indifferent too it……lost two people recently……that’s what really matters…Good luck my friend….

  11. The shakiest of rallies, if it doesn’t fail here, 10380 and 372, then 400 and 80 await.
    Obviously 350 and 60 now take on a bit of significance

    1. That’s the first two ticked off then. Struggling or grinding? a bit of both by the look of it.

      1. Struggling too much for me at the second hurdle so took +19 on half.
        I think whatever Mario rally they may conjure up would be a short.
        Sure we’re in a bull market and dips are part of the game, but this is lousy short term action to drift ~60 off the highs, not that dips shouldn’t probably be bought, but Lalaland run ups should also be sold.

        1. I honestly believe tmfp that Mr P can sell just as easy as buy…..I think it’s plant the seed….then move the goalposts to unsettle the punters and get them short then back to the original plan and spank the punters before they know its a bluff job….like you said…..months ago…..treat it like a computer game….can’t really take it seriously in any case…..

        3. Sounds like you’ve got quite the quasi religious thing going there anstel, Omnipotent being, High Priests handing wisdom down to the masses, and fatalism…. 😉

          Back to the altar, errr screens, that laborious dead cat fell off the tin roof, but I still think we’ll hold for the ECB stuff, so replaced that half at 67, stop now b/e 64.

          1. It’s just the way it is but not everyone can see it….do a bit of digging….your a clever man….

          2. Yeah ok anstel, I get it.
            How about JFK’s assassination, UFO’s, landing on the Moon, 9/11?

          3. I tell you what tmfp,if we ever get to have a chat in person over a beer or 3 it would be interesting….WSF I think you should join us too I reckon you would have some interesting comments …..All part of life’s rich tapestry……just going to search the news and Bloomberg to find out what’s going on……see you later….

          4. tmfp,in the film Pixels they reveal that the Zapruder footage was heavily edited and there was a 2nd shooter,JFK,apparently he shot first.

  12. Hello all you happy campers! Well I’ve been making a complete horlicks of this – got short last night at 6392 and 6410, “bought the dips” this morning, at 6400 and 6393 only to watch it go all the way to 6370. Never mind, profit is a profit. Meanwhile I’ve been playing the FTSE/Dow difference which was all going really nicely until I got overexcited and am currently looking at a reasonable position that is 40 points wrong.
    So, what have I learned….for one reason or another, either bear squeeze or election year or something but the dow does not want to sit down. I’m still looking, warily, at selling the rises – according to IG along with 82% of other people!

    1. Hey Chippy I wonder if I could ask you something unrelated to trading please matey? Can you get these days…Seasoned Timber……not the fast grown kiln dried crap but proper seasoned stuff ?

      1. F*&% knows! I could ask as there is a massive timber yard just down the road from where I work but to be fair, they’ll just tell me what I want to hear and still flog the kiln dried old rubbish.
        The ‘Chippy’ is nothing to do with wood!

        1. Oh sorry matey….tmfp said you were a chippy so I figured you may be a carpenter or a wood machinist or someone in the trade…….it’s all the kiln dried crap that I’ve seen lately….absolute cr@p….no worries I’m in no rush….just doing some forward thinking…..best of luck with your trades matey and thanks……..

          5. It was a thing.I was living in Southwark once when the Council offices got hit,there was a shortage of Chips,smash the comps and take the Chips,lot of money in it.

          6. They will Steal anything if it’s not screwed down…..like the guy walking out of the builders yard with a wheelbarrow with a tarp over it…..security kept asking to look under the tarp to see what he was nicking….nothing there….I think he got about 6 wheelbarrows !…I used to know a guy that worked in Liverpool……when he parked his car the kids asked him for 50p to mind his car…….he got fed up with it so he bought a big Alsatian for a few hundred quid……next time he went to Liverpool he took the dog with him in the car…..when the kids asked him for 50p he said no thanks?…have a look in the car…….kids got on their tiptoes and looked……nice dog Mr……can it put out fires!

          8. Sorry chaps, been out and about – far more obscure! In fairness the career change from braces wearing, champagne swilling, screen jockeying, market making w*nker to what I do now isn’t far different to either cabinetry or chip shop. Anyway, think Trumpton.

  13. man reading the comments section on here, is informative and funny at the same time:) woeha! you go anstel.

    1. Thanks WSF that’s a really good bit of information and good to add the video to the board…..many thanks.

      1. 🙂
        I think it suggests that the way he pronounces,”Focus” and his sincerity when he says,”remember size does not matter” could be responsible for his success with women.That and the money obviously.

        2. Might be time for a speculative long if anyone’s got spare bullets. What do you reckon tmfp?

          1. In the 60’s? Uncertain really, entry is the key as usual when you look for my sort of profit margin. As I said, I’d have longed a flash to the 40’s but didn’t quite get there.
            No reason to expect the DOW to crash, doesn’t need to, BTD is still the play but not good action today.
            Proper support in my book doesn’t come in till 10200 and 6280.

            Just had a brilliant autochartist pop up, Short DAX now, stop 10532 target 9905 🙂

          6. Yesterday we had similar price action….very nervy….before later on all the sma’s aligned parallel and we got the steady consistant push North….I think it’s hold nerves through the uncertainty and wait.

          5. Quote from Tom Hougaard………”I ATTEMPT for fade the short term trend into the long term trend….

    1. Yeah you could even put your money in the building society I heard you get 0.25 % before tax……wonder why they want inflation at 2%… Can’t imagine myself….

          1. Sharma my lowest Ftse long is at 6289 and highest 404 calling at some stations in between….hope that is clearer for you…..Good Luck mate…..

      1. When both 1 min DOW and FTSE are overbought together after a quick rally, usually a bit of a turn to be had.

  18. Tempted in to a rinse and repeat short at 77, getting a bit close to a closing rally, so 5 pt stop

    1. Dow seems capped by the 100sma on the 2 min….once it breaks that should be good to rise further imo…

      1. Yeah your right at the moment really weak…..Mr P must have gone home early….got a sneaking feeling he’s going to show up again though…..

          1. There’s only so many cups of tea I can drink….plenty of finger twiddling going on here….

        2. 80 odd below yesterdays close so showing support really and a down day was due,would set up a rally into the weekend tomorrow too,cant really see it closing below 18k though,maybe in the 50’s like Tues ?

          1. Oh hello…..thought you may be changing the batteries in your light sabre :0)..no buyers around at the moment at all….oh hold on……a bit of green :0)

          2. Dax seems pretty stable which I think is a good sign for stability and a possible rise again…..

          4. Yes wouldnt besurprised to see Dax back over 500 a couple of hrs before the open again tomorrow,assuming the Dow doesnt fall much further before it closes.

          5. Yes just heard about Prince….sad ..R.I.P…….

            Regarding this lot someone’s gone awol…..anything can happen when it’s like this.

          6. Just thinking WSF….if we are all still solvent at xmas we should all meet up…..be a good laugh….getting all us reprobates together…..:0)

          7. We could invite Mr Bridger as well…..mind you we may have to break into his toilet and ruin his natural rhythm :0)

          9. It’s giving all the weak signals….think your right….might be trying to suck in shorters…..a double bluff….or conversely maybe it’s the longs that have been sucked in…..and its going down….don’t think charts can help…..just have to wait……..if the Dax was down I’d be thinking of exiting…..

          10. 🙂 I’m hoping to hit targets by Christmas,take a break and next yr chase capital growth,starting to feel like things are picking up,I reckon this could be a good end of year.

          11. Well from what I have read most traders start…think it’s easy…..lose there accounts then give up…….others like myself have some success by good fortune mainly ,get overconfident make some big mistakes and end up back at square one with a blown account or two….it’s a learning process……if we can stay in the game while we learn that’s a big part of it I think….Just keep trying and trying and trying…….eventually there will be no mistakes left to make hopefully….and maybe then we can reap some meaningful rewards…I for one am giving it 120% and I think you are too….we will get there mate.Good Luck as always….

        1. You show me up with all the statistics WSF….I’m not that good at all that….glad your about matey…..I just like to feel the market…….much to tmfps dismay I know but i am learning more about charts etc slowly…..I remember one day I saw the market peak ,had dealing tab open but didn’t take the short trade…..tmfp took the trade on RSI divergence……we both had the same idea but got to the same conclusion in different ways….I didn’t take the trade ……tmfp did…..it’s experience isn’t it.so now I look to see if the RSI shows the same thing as what I think……a bit more conformation …..

          2. S2 is at 962 S3 892,but I’m thinbking of that pattern from march to the middle of april where the drops all got bought up.

  21. Just got filled at 11630 buying my FTSE/Dow difference back. Got sweaty for a bit but nicked a nice juicy 30 pointer. All flat now, still top hunting though if I see something.

        1. Just thinking WSF……The Dow is down nearly 170……Ftse is resilient and Dax is very resilient…..6500 Ftse im thinking…..what do you reckon ? not tonight but soon……..

          1. If you go by cash mkt from the close the Dow is only 96 or so below yesterdays close at the moment.
            Doesnt seem like the Dow is about to correct in a big way so 6500 before the Brexit thing is even over is possible.The Dax has got a lot of catching up to do,still below Jan where the Dow is at last yrs high.
            Talking about Trading stuff Nick Radge says it is about how you mange bad trades and stay in the game for the really good ones,think tjhere is a lot in that.

          2. Yes lots and lots to learn…..old habits and all that…..just nearly saw Senus 46 for an entry that he had an order in for earlier….

          8. It’s a funny old market……..I just wonder where all the buyers have gone since this morning.Mario has not changed anything….don’t really thing anyone expected him too………just a buy the rumour job I suppose………at least the weather has been nice today :0)

          9. Not heard from hugh….Rick…..RJ……thought Jack would have been on here tday as well…..and Paulhamley and Dan….all missing?

          11. Sometimes it jumps when it goes to a 4pt spread……you’ve got to laugh……you just have…that and latency warnings :0) I don’t know…..

          13. Hey it would be a good exercise to monitor the cash market at close and compare it to the trading brokers charts…only have to be a bit different and someone could be making a few extra pennies :0)

          14. 🙂 Well to be honest i’m happy with that,think it will all be higher in the morning,we’ll see.

        2. S2 held,could still have a march/early april tail on the day chart by midnight although at the moment I think the Dax might be a safer hold.Dow sub 18k and Dax sub 10400 could look cheap this time next week.

          2. Thanks very much WSF…….I didn’t expect an easy ride…it’s always going to have fluxuations…. If the bullish trend holds might be alright….at least it’s more of an incentive for buyers to stock up cheaper that before….

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