China 6.7% growth 6375 6395 resistance Oil producers in Doha on Sunday

Support 6357 6339 6326 6316
Resistance 6367 6373 6375 6381 6399 6421 6428
Good morning. We got the consolidation day yesterday with the bulls failing to break the 6375 area and might well get the same again today, as we wait and see the output from the Oil producers meeting in Doha on Sunday. In Asia overnight China’s first-quarter economic growth of 6.7 percent matched estimates, helping stocks that are pricing in an easing of a Chinese slow down.

US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg

  • Oil set for weekly gain before Doha talks on output freeze
  • Yen drops with Topix after Japan’s biggest quake since 2011

Asian equities took a breather from their longest winning streak in a year, while South Korea’s won strengthened as a flood of China data added to evidence that a slowdown is easing in the world’s second-largest economy. The yen weakened after Japan’s strongest earthquake since 2011.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell for the first time in eight days. The Shanghai Composite Index slipped from a three-month high and the yuan weakened for a fourth day as China’s first-quarter economic growth of 6.7 percent matched estimates. The won strengthened along with currencies of resource-exporting nations, while the yen was headed for its biggest weekly loss since the Bank of Japan adopted a negative interest-rate policy in January. U.S. crude climbed before major oil producers meet in Doha on Sunday to discuss freezing output.

Friday’s data dump in China showed new credit, industrial output, fixed-asset investment and retail sales all picked up in March, a sign stimulus policies are bearing fruit after the economy expanded last year at the slowest pace in more than two decades. Brightening prospects for China and a rebound in oil prices helped lift global equities over the past two months from their lowest level since 2013. The International Energy Agency said Thursday it expects global crude markets will move closer to balance after a glut that drove prices to a 13-year low.

“The market already had good expectations about the economic data as the recent run-up is driven by optimism about the economic stabilization,” said Zhang Haidong, chief strategist at Jinkuang Investment Management in Shanghai. “Some investors are choosing to sell now that the good news has materialized. The market is now turning its attention to corporate earnings from liquidity.”

Stocks
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index declined 0.5 percent as of 12:17 p.m. Tokyo time, trimming this week’s advance to 4.1 percent. The Topix lost 0.7 percent following a three-day surge of more than 7 percent. A magnitude 6.5 earthquake struck the southern part of Japan late on Thursday, killing nine people and injuring hundreds.

The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.3 percent and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index lost 0.2 percent, snapping a seven-day run of gains.

“The latest economic figures are slightly better than expectations but it remains to be seen whether the recovery can sustained,” said Zhang Gang, a strategist at Central China Securities Co. in Shanghai. “Investors worry whether this could mean less government stimulus policies going forward.”

Currencies
South Korea’s won strengthened 0.4 percent versus the greenback, while New Zealand’s dollar gained 0.5 percent and Canada’s currency advance 0.3 percent. The yen fell 0.3 percent, set for a 1.5 percent loss for the week. [Bloomberg]

FTSE 100 Outlook and Prediction

FTSE 100 Prediction
FTSE 100 Prediction

For today I think we might continue in yesterday’s vein and see a bit more consolidation after the rise that we have had for the past few weeks. There is a meeting oil producers on Sunday where they will discuss possibly freezing output, which will buoy the oil price and in turn boost the FTSE (as the FTSE weighting is such that its geared towards oil and resource stocks). The ASX200 (Australia) had a slow rise for most of their Friday session so we will probably do the same, drifting upwards the cluster of resistance levels around the 6380 to 6400 area. I feel that if we reach the 6395 to 6400 area then we may get a bit of a dip from there ahead of the weekend as some long profit is banked, as the 2 hour chart has had a moving average change to bear and we also have a red coral on the 30min chart now (resistance from that is at 6375). As its Friday it might be a little weird so generally use smaller stakes for the trades but I am mostly watching the 6385/6395 area for a reaction and see what happens there and if we dip from that level. Generally though the rise looks set to continue for the meantime and surpass my wild thought of 6350 that I had a while back! That said, we are nudging the top of the various daily channels, both Raff and Bianca, so a little dip back from the 6400 area would be good.

91 Comments

  1. Morning chaps…….what’s going on?been out of touch since Weds………ok I’m long Ftse from 63 and 61 good luck all….Dax swing looking much happier :0)

  2. Hey Anstel
    It’s been very very quiet past couple of days. Looking quite weak so far today on ftse, but expecting it to bounce at some level soon… 50,40,35.
    (Hope you got your life stuff sorted)

    1. Hey inoodle,thanks yes I’ve done all I can for now……it’s funny but only been out of touch since Wednesday and I don’t feel quite as tuned into it as I was if you know what I mean……I just hedged my positions so I could forget all about the market…..didn’t want to leave open positions and be off grid so to speak…Anyway back to today…I’ve added to Ftse long at 50 spreading entries….good luck buddy..

    1. Morning WSF……time for the Dow sweep stakes……I’m going to guess that it climbs to just shy of 18k and then pulls back slightly…..just teasing us at the moment I reckon :0) good luck as always…..go make some money!

      2. oh well anstel its only 10.45 🙂
        Well first day trading on my IG account have to get
        used to a much more pro platform.

        1. Yeah :0) plenty of time for some asterix , hashtags and @s……all part of the fun….good luck mate….BTW my German is getting rusty again :0(

          2. Nein ich bin manchmal einfach nur Gluck……..ich bin wirklich mull……aber ich versuche hart……….Thanks for that I’ve learnt three new words….good luck today…

        1. Thanks for this site Nick and all the trouble it takes to keep it functioning……it’s a great place for us all to interact and share ideas……it’s much appreciated……Good luck Nick.

  5. Ok somebody please tell me what the huge spike on the ftse was at 10:10?
    I had literally just chucked on a large short after the little pin bar on the 1min faked me out.
    Grr

      1. Well after a whole morning, I was in profit all the way up to that. It then took me way down, but just pulled it back to break even. Hahaha. Think I’ll take a rest for lunch and come back for a ‘new day’ at NY open

      1. Really well anticipated Senu….I didn’t think that trade was going to yield any points at this time……how wrong was I …..nice one and GL.

  7. Inoodle…..this was the spike at 10.10 for Options Expiry

    Expiry takes place between 10.10am -10.15am UK TIME.

    15% ATR is 10 pips today so between 10.10am-10.15am if i see a 11 or more pip move (either up or down) from the 10.10am price I will fade this back to the point of origin which is the 10.10am price what ever that may be.

    2. Fantastic, I did wonder if option expiry was involved. Thanks for the detail – the fade sounds ideal. Will look out for that next time. Is the expiry only monthly or every day / week?

    1. I added long in a similar area, and now i’m a bit twitchy, it’s looking like a slow drift downward is happening

      1. Don’t lose your nerve…..stops to break even and hold it………make sure your risk is covered stops to b/ e then move them up.

        1. I’ve put my stop just below 6327 where it just bounced, hopefully that will hold until U.S. open

          2. I might scale out though if I get the rises……take the money, take the money., anstel..I have to keep telling myself over and over……..remember the thief in the night….it’s my problem area but I’m working hard to try and not push too hard.GL.

    2. Haha I’m also long at 33.8 since 1pm.. Also twitchy.. S317 target 367…
      We’ll see if I hold that long!

        1. Just remember …..it’s not a big man eating lion that’s going to eat us for breakfast……but our brains can’t tell the difference…..

        2. I keep leaving money on the table very time it hits 40… Grrr
          Mind it keeps heading back up… Just

        4. You still holding long?
          I traded in and out like a mad eejit. Made a profit, but my actual risk was way greater…not good trading.
          Seems a bit ‘v shaped’. Dow not able to break 17930 yet.

          1. I’m trading off the daily for an idea of trend direction….then back to the hourly for conformation on how it’s playing out and now I’m on 3 min looking at the RSI.Also I’ve been trading 2.5 yrs and I recognise certain market conditions which gives me a gut/intuitive feel of market direction.Good Luck buddy. I get it wrong a lot so don’t take any notice of what I do…..learn from the more experienced traders…..that’s my disclaimer :0)

          2. Forgot to add really and truly we are trading the Dow,so I have a Dow chart open at all times along with a Dax chart as a measure of sensitivity……apart from the fact that I also have a Dax swing in play……I would have a Dax chart open anyway……it’s sensitivity gives a few clues to sentiment.

          3. Thanks mate, good to get a feel for what everyone else is doing. Still shocked at your day last week hahah wow

  9. How is the mirror trading different to regular membership? I know mirror trading will follow your trades exactly by automating them, but don’t you give your trade entries and exits to regular members as well.

    1. Not everyone has got guts to hold a trade or put a stop loss, not everyone can read the info on time (if you oversleep or busy at work) so you miss your entry. So there are benefits, no doubt, in Nick’s offer.

  10. Doesn’t break 30 and doesn’t break 44 on Dax. I changed my mind about direction twice already in the space on 1 hour. First I favoured long, now I started favouring short. Now changing my mind for long again.

    1. Are you still short, Senu, or gave up? Dax turned on a long side at the moment. I wanted to enter but chart looked like a mish-mash.

        1. out for +20 in dow short, and FTSE for +3. GL all and good weekend. last one hour on Friday is tricky, chances you may get caught and forced to hold it through the weekend.

  12. 60 sec speed trading on euro/usd any thoughts?
    although its more like gambling i think

    1. Please don’t do that for God’s sake. You may be lucky, but you will get addicted easily. more chance to loose money. GL

      1. Hi senu, its tempting but like i said its gambling, will take your advice
        and stay clear.

        1. if it is tempting, wake up, daily early morning and chant this.
          “I will not do Speed Trading”. Its serious. who is your provider?

          2. I had same issues. and emailed them to suspend it for me. Minimum suspension is 6 months. you can’t enable it by any means. very strict. I am happy with that.

  14. Evening all, not got a clue at the moment so not really getting involved. It looks to me that the drift today could be sell the story, buy the news about Doha so I’m expecting/hoping for some fireworks on Monday. I’m still concerned that there could be a bit of a slap soon but equally it could easily run to 6500.
    Have a good weekend all, I’m off to the pub followed by a big curry, NO chips!!

    1. Thanks Chippy,last chance to accumulate before 18k for the usual suspects you mean ?
      Have a good weekend everybody.

      1. Evening WSF…..late night Friday gang again.might have to pull some risk off if it doesn’t push higher in next hour…..had a good week buddy ?

          1. Hey hey.
            I’m throwing some spare change for one last blast down… Dunno why though, just a hunch as it missed my drawn level last time at 63…

          2. Evening inoodle…..Let’s see what the last hour brings……pushing it fine this,still think it’s got upside here but I’m conscious of the risks this close to weekend close……..oh well faint heart never won fair maiden…….good luck buddy.

    1. There’s a golden cross on Dow 1 min well it’s almost there………will it or won’t it?

  17. I’m sat right at break even on 17900. Thought it was a good entry earlier. Really want a pop to exit this trade before the weekend. Can’t trust this oil meeting. They have no interest in preserving a rally in stocks

    1. I’m pushing it too ……a rally at the close would be just what we need………..I think it just could as well…..what do you think?

  19. Ok today is not the day……pulled off a lot of risk lowest Ftse out for +0.4….. And taken some profit off Dax swing.still running 3 Ftse positions though partially hedged good night all best of luck to everyone.

  21. See Gregory Manorino latest two videos on you tube……governments propped up by central banks………critical fed chair Allan Greenspan.FWIW.

    1. He seems to be unaware of the role of war in politics and economics and the reason for their ever expanding military and military budgets.Tbh I find it hard to have sympahy for what might happen to the western middleclass when I know that before what he suggests ever happens they’ll carpet bomb my “property portfolio” 🙂

      1. When I look at the rises we have had since Feb…..since that evening when we were up trading late and the Dow fell through the 200 sma at 15751 I think it was from memory, and then to below 15500 before bouncing hard on a supposed Twitter comment from an oil executive about supply cuts ……and now we are just shy of 18k……talk about a stack of cards built by George Constanza!!….I don’t know….common sense what say short the market……but this market could go anywhere….I’m not ruling out the possibility of Dow at 19k……there is no basis in reality …… And as such I think we need to adjust our trading but it’s so difficult to justify long positions but maybe it’s still BTD for a while longer…..Interesting but difficult times to be trading…..

        1. Yes,I’m thinking trend and precedent .April is usually positive,it’s an election yr,things turn south when nobody is talking about it etc etc everytime I forget that it costs.I took about 30 points on my open ASX the other week when I was saying it could go to 5k,closed around there,it was a decent trade with a reasonable S/L and if I’d held it or moved the stop ASX is 5160 at the moment lol,if ASX is up anything can be & most of my stops have still come from short trades in the last few weeks.That Telegraph article is a good story and if it becomes mainstream belief that would be pretty Bullish.There is a Bearish piece on Seeking Alpha about HSBC and it is logical and true,but cant see it happening…dont want to get all Soros or Taleb with the belief vs reality thing though.Taleb has good stuff on You Tube,worth a watch,wont bother Nick with the links,but eg “Financial Collapse: A Panel with Nassim N. Taleb & Robert Shiller – The New Yorker ” from last yr.He has some good thoughts on Working out too,if it turns into a slow week and you fancy a Powerlifting protocol 🙂

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