Bit more bull to come, 6700 FTSE (9400 Dax?)

Good morning. A fairly flat’ish day on the FTSE yesterday which kind of followed the plan, but dipped back after hitting the 6665 area. However, overnight its been ok and I expect that we will see a little push up today to the 6700 area where there is some daily resistance. I am also watching the Dax for 9400 where I expect it to stutter a bit, and worthy of a swing trade short. The FTSE has certainly been lagging the other indices recently, dragged down by the miners that make up a  fair chunk of the FTSE 100.  The S&P has struggled to get above the 1808 area, though if it manages then it should still be on for the 1814.

Gold weakened off again after that bounce from 1228, but failing to break 1252. If it doesn’t get back above that level then I think it could be heading for sub $1200. I am watching resistance at 1252, and support at 1228, 1223 and 1180

The US markets are closed today for Thanksgiving, in the past that has meant that we often see a fairly flat day on the FTSE.

Asia Overnight from Bloomberg

Asian stocks rose, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average closing at the highest in six years as the yen touched a sixth-month low after U.S. employment and consumer confidence reports boosted optimism in the world’s largest economy.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 0.8 percent to 142.16 as of 2:06 p.m. in Hong Kong, with all 10 industry groups on the measure rising. More than $8 trillion has been added to the value of global equities this year, the biggest increase since 2009, as central banks took steps to shore up economies worldwide. The Asia-Pacific gauge jumped 9 percent in 2013 through yesterday, while falling 0.9 percent on the month.

“Asia’s earnings growth does remain largely leveraged to the global economy,” Michael Kurtz, Hong Kong-based head of global equity strategy at Nomura Holdings Inc., said in an e-mail. “Our economists expect the U.S. economy finally to accelerate to a more robust pace in 2014.”


Data yesterday showed fewer Americans than projected filed applications for unemployment benefits last week, a sign that the labor market is showing resilience. The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan final index of consumer sentiment in November unexpectedly rose to 75.1 from 73.2 a month earlier. The median forecast of 65 economists surveyed by Bloomberg called for 73.1.

The Conference Board’s index of U.S. leading indicators, a gauge of the economic outlook for the next three to six months, rose for a fourth straight month in October, reflecting gains in factory orders and applications to build new homes.

Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said the U.S. economy probably will grow more slowly next year than some forecasters predict and indicated that a record U.S. stock market isn’t in a bubble.

U.S. Futures

Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index added 0.1 percent, with U.S. exchanges closed today for the Thanksgiving holiday. The S&P 500 has climbed 27 percent this year, heading for the biggest annual gain since 1998, as the Fed pressed on with its stimulus program. The gauge closed at a record 1,807.23 yesterday. About 4.8 billion shares changed hands on U.S. exchanges, the slowest trading since Aug. 26.

FTSE Outlook

ftse 100 prediction
ftse 100 prediction

We are currently bang on the daily pivot as I write this and if that holds as support at the open, the next key level will be 6262. If the bulls can break that, and I think they might, then we could reach 6684 and possibly (hopefully) the 6700 area. I have the Bianca channels on the daily at 6696 for 10 day, and 6703 for 20 day, as well as the 10 day Raff here so feel that this area is certainly worthy of a short. We have had a pretty good bounce off the bottom of these channels at 6625ish when they were hit the other day, but its been a bit of a slow slog, and now we are nearing the top of those channels I expect that the bears will be keen to have a go. Coupled with the fact that the Dax is likely to hit that 9400 area today and S&P has failed to push on past 1808, I think that we might see some bearishness kick in. With the US closed today it might be tempered a little though.

If the bears do manage to drop it then they will need to break 6628 and if they do then 6613 and 6582 are support areas.

We have a fairly decent rising channel on the 30 minute chart for today which I feel might hold initially for the rise. On the Dax the daily pivot is 9348 which could hold and form the base for the push up on that.