Can the bulls break 7535? Trading signals help and analysis membership

10th October 2017
Slow drift down yesterday with the bulls failing to reach and retest the 7535 area, with light trading in the US during Columbus Day. That said it was a very slow decline down to just below the 7500 level but the overnight bulls have brought it back above this level. Fairly quiet on the news front also, while traders await minutes from the Fed’s last meeting which are due Wednesday and JPMorgan Chase & Co. kicks off earnings season on Thursday. In Washington, a top Republican senator sparred verbally with Trump, raising some concern that planned tax reform may be stalled.


FTSE 100 Outlook and Prediction

FTSE 100 Prediction Support Resistance Trading Signals
FTSE 100 Prediction Support Resistance Trading Signals

For today I am feeling similar to yesterday with an expected dip down from the 7530 area to test the 7450 or lower area. As such, I think an initial short off any early morning rise is worth a go. If the bulls can push above the 7545 level then that’s invalidated and a rise to 7600 looks distinctly possible. We are approaching earnings season later this week so may well see a bit of profit taking ahead of this as we wait and see what they are like.

Interestingly, we have broken below the 10 day channels, both Bianca and Raff, with the bottom of them now becoming resistance around the 7510/7520 area. Something to bear in mind, and the 2 hour chart is also bearish, showing resistance at 7534 still. If its weak today then the 2 hour coral is likely to turn red with 7526 resistance kicking in.

If the bears break below yesterdays low at 7485 then the fib level is 7455 looks to be decent support in the short term, with 7400 and 7350 below here. I think yesterday’s thoughts of a weaker start to the week, followed by a rise for the second half still holds true. We still have simmering tensions over NK, with all sorts of shenanigans going on – another reason for a bit of risk off early this week.

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55 Comments

  2. The dollar formed a nice reversal in an area of high resistance on Friday and I am fully loaded in gold which I started accumulating last week. Initial target 1300 .
    Stock market doesnt want to go down and I have resisted the tempation to short it.
    Dont know what explains the rise of the past month or so, possibly anticipated tax reforms outweighing the interest rate story in the states.
    If tax reform stalls probably going to see a major correction, but right now shorting it must be like an armless man trying to push a beachball under water with his foot.

  3. I got burnt. Lost 6 quid in the end. Long in the wrong place on Dax. Now I am out but want to go in at some point again.

  4. Dow in a tight consolidation pattern since Friday NFP. Higher lows. Tops are closed enough to be flat, which is bullish, but with a just hint of rising, which tends to be bearish. Awaiting a break out of pattern.

    Hats off to you guys trading the FTSE. It’s not easy trading something that has spent most of this year flailing around in a messy consolidation.

    1. I’d take trading the FTSE over the Dow any day at the moment. Guess it depends on your trading style, but the only people making money on the Dow are buy and hold. I’d rather accumulate points on both sides of the market as then you don’t need the market to ‘do’ anything, you’re in control. Dow looks like a classic bubble.. could easily end up looking like the NASDAQ in 2000 when this is all over, so could continue higher another 10% before the burst

  5. Morning …..I’m expecting a strong push on Ftse…..can see a test of the 7600 area quite soon….good luck all….

  6. The bouncing pound hasnt knocked FTSE over the last 2 sessions, but I anticipate further GBP rise which will probably keep the lid on any real gains on FTSE this week.

    1. I think the opposite CM…I think cable is due further falls….The recent rise was overdone on the hawkish interest rate comments…

            1. Look at the daily.. momentum has switched bullish now so probably going to keep going up unless there’s a sign of reversal

                1. Looking at the daily I think cable will bounce off the 50 sma and continue down…..could be wrong but that’s how I’m reading it…..

                    1. It might only be low 40s but it’s rising.. plenty of room to get to 50-60 even if the overall trend is going to be down. Hard to call medium term direction, I still suspect that the Brexit premium drops out over the next couple of years and it goes back to $1.50s eventually. But they seem overly concerned by whatever May is doing at the mo

  7. Hello All!! COudnt post earlier was away !! been an awesome day so far.. just sharing my psychology behind my trade. I think the market is high but with great potential of targeting 600 given enough time. due to my bad experience of holding my trade against during historic climb post-Brexit. I have learnt no trade is 100 % but if you get yourself edge over the market by buying/selling at good support and res level, then there is still scope for at least getting it back in some time or at least make some quick gains before turnaround or continuation of the trend. was short yesterday thought might see action in a new week. came out 500. morning long from 07 till 17 and then short from 21 till 07. went away thinking that I will find it <500 on return but no it was @15 so bought it purely on 30 min bullish candle. out @25.

    moral of the story is not sticking and getting biased about any direction and simply trading what you see works for me. feel free to share your thought. so get yourself a book and set some alerts and trade on level you want, let market come your way and all the best to everyone.

  8. They managed to hold the 7490 pivot area with a bit of an overthrow last night hence the overnight rally back towards the top of the range. Two things can happen here, either the bulls claim 7540 fairly quickly and the pullback yesterday was just a small one before more melt up. Or the move yesterday was a sign of weakness and this is a retest of the high. I’m favouring shorts under the 7540 pivot and think 7490 will break first. Under 7490 can start to think about a run down towards 7400. Above 7540 then the all time high is in view and just have to go with the flow until something sets up

  9. Playing a similar range to yesterday. Shorts are preferred here, as we have some overbought signals on hourly and the daily seems to be rolling over. A close under 410 would indicate more downside to come. Out of shorts above 7540.

  10. Short 100 @ 7530 stop at 45

    Can anyone explain this rise today from 7485 apart from 7480-90 being a support level?

    1. Yes. Wall st meets Main St.
      The index will fall when you no longer have the funds to short it.

    2. That’s just what they do.. push to support, if it holds then buy, if it breaks then sell. So once it started getting a bid the odds were good they’d test the top of the range. Always worth a sell off the pivots. Bears want to see a big reaction off 7540. Last week I was bullish as all of the dips were shallow and being bought. Yesterday’s drop was the first lower low vs the previous day since the sequence began which shows the short term up trend is under pressure. That makes the likelihood of a reaction off 7540 greater than it would be if we’d just melted up. So it’s a sell and see.. but if it breaks have to either be long or sit out. We’re already overbought on the hourly and as already mentioned Sterling looks good for some more upside so would probably sit out if stopped out on shorts

  11. and i amin @35 short!! not expecting 10 will do.. but of close 4 hr candle @510-515 thats would be very
    bearish i reckon !!

  12. Watch out for a potential shooting star on SPX and Dow, price action is similar to 8th August here. And FTSE within 15 points of the 8/8/17 high too

      1. 540 is the key area. Not looking too good though for bears. Closed near the high and the reaction off the level has been poor so far. If we clear 7540s then it’s in melt up mode so not sure where it stops. Sterling still looking good for $1.33 though and other markets look like some weakness could be creeping in. All to play for tomorrow

      1. jsut logged in to see if flying !! glad i made my exit .. smetime being not greedy helps i guess..

    1. To be honest when it dropped to 12924 just now I thought that I was pretty much finished. But then suddenly it came back to my hideous long position the remainder 12960 and I got my money back all that I was losing today to b/e. Sad. I got it all completely wrong with the entries and money management today. Sad.

    1. Me too. Technicals saying we should have some kind of dip here. Maybe 7490-7510, but with the bit divi out tomo I’m wary they will chase this up to ATH before any meaningful retrace. Good Luck Icarus.

    1. I nearly got burnt today, I was -50 points at some point, -250 quid. Not easy. But with the God’s will I got it all back to where I started today.
      I never short aggressive rises overnight. I learnt my lesson long ago. When it is pointing to the sky it may carry on overnight. Hope it will retrace for you tomorrow.

  20. I’m out.. just didn’t like that close and where it’s sat overnight. Melt up could be underway here. Equally, 7500 wouldn’t surprise either

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