July 2017 – My results
- FTSE100 4.18%
- SP500 -1.18%
- Dax 7.11%
- Gold 2.43%
What a lovely drop off 7425 that was, pretty much the high of the day, all the way down to the target at 7385. The low of the day was in fact 7370 and the bulls have subsequently fought back to get the FTSE 100 back above 7400. No bull Monday yesterday, so same as last week. Which should tie in with a bit of bull Tuesday instead, coinciding with the start of the new month and the influx of new money.
More political turmoil in the US after Trumps spokesman, Anthony Scaramucci, was dismissed after less than 10 days. Meanwhile, in the UK Moody’s have expressed caution on the UK unsecured debt pile which now stands at over £200 billion! “Household debt is high and still growing, leaving consumers vulnerable to an economic downturn,” explained Moody’s Greg Davies. “Higher inflation, weaker wage growth and levels of indebtedness leaves those in lower-income brackets the most exposed.” Sub prime two anyone!?
FTSE 100 Outlook and Prediction
I have a fairly simple plan for today and that is to go long and look for a rise towards the 7450 area, possibly 7475. I am thinking that we may get a small initial dip, though its 50/50 if we will or not. A dip down to 7390 would make a great entry as we have some decent supports here and with the rise from 7370, the 2 hour chart has gone bullish again, with support here too.
The 30min chart is showing some negative RSI divergence to start with, hence why I am thinking a dip down to the support level before a climb for the start of the month. The rest of August might be a bit more bearish as its typically a weak month.
If the bears were to break lower though, and get below 7390 then that will change the picture and we are still on that path towards 7340 and ultimately 7200. All things considered and despite everything going on in the world the markets remain robust. Stocks really are the only smart place to have money at the moment as most other asset classes are looking a bit ropey – the property ship has sailed now for example.
So, buy the dip for today.
Want more detailed analysis for FTSE 100, DAX, Gold and S&P? Then please join our active members community.
What you get
- Daily Analysis pre market open (sent around 7am each day) for FTSE, DAX, Gold and S&P.
- Daily email pre market includes my trading plan for the day including ORDER levels, with stops and targets/limits
- WhatsApp and webinars group membership for discussion and realtime trade updates
Morning all. Holding fully hedged ftse shorts and dow shorts.
Hey anstel, havent heard much from you lately. Are you still around? If you are reading this, hope all is okay.
Morning Icarus,I just logged in to see how you are all doing…..I’m having a break from it while there’s still some summer left…interesting,the Dow Keeps charging supposedly with the dollar weakness…..I can see the Ftse heading higher if cable sells off….on the other hand that Dow could drop 1500 points for fun and destroy the shaky confidence of the Ftse how far down Ftse could go I don’t know….overall long term I think Ftse 7600 plus as the year progresses…good luck all…
Good to hear from you! Dont know about the markets but the weather up here is pretty shaky! 🙂
Have a holiday planned in September down south so looking forward to it and hoping i can recover costs by then 😉
bought the ftse 7400 this morning for 10pts, waiting now to see if it drops to 7420 to buy for 22pts (provided it doesn’t hit 7442 1st), sold dax this morning @12127 for 19pts, sold Cac 5101 for 8pts
orders to sell Dax @12157.3 for 19pts stop 19 & Cac @5111.3 stop 12 for 8pts, must trigger by 10.29
Usual new month money in see if it holds up. Long the DAX. Weak dollar is the overarching theme. And low interest rates. So long stocks and gold been good. Would like a good shakeout in August to go all-in. No interest in shorts.
Orders to sell Dax @12160 (trigger by 11.29) & 12153.5 (trigger by 11.59), stop 12191 for both, 19pt target for both
ftse looking weak canceled long order for @7420, short 7430 stop 7490, target 7370, short Dow 22010, stop just above high
Added dow short @22000, stop 22010 on all
Really? 10 point stop for the dow?
You’re kidding right?
Since 9am the range has been around 25pts, I don’t think there is any point putting on a 50pt stop, because if it breaks the high, who knows where it will stop, as we’ve seen and I’m sure there’s a lot of people holding shorts on the Dow that are well under water, I generally observe and enter, where I think I can get away with a small stop, then look about getting a b/e stop in and see what happens, of course I could get taken out and then it goes in the direction I wanted, but I think the Dow is too big to gamble on and I like to try to keep losses as low as poss, its just my style.
Whats your target by the way
Target is a few hundred points, but its a long way off that :), it’s more a punt really, but sure if its low risk, I think its worth a chance
Stop to be on Dow & Ftse
Stopped out of the ftse and Dow, so nothing lost, nothing gained 🙂
Certainly nothing gained
But you lost stops though £10-22pp. Too expensive imho. What do you feel when the stop triggered? Do you ever try to stop trade manually earlier?
To go short Dax today is suicidal.
Short Dow @22011 10pts stop
Although going on the normal US session it will just make another new high but my reason for the 2nd try, its the 76% retrace from the move from 10am, so if this is to drop its a good risk-reward
Stop to b/e
Order to short Dax @12218.5 for 19pts must trigger before 14.59
Just to warn everyone……Im thinking of going long the Dow !! So good time to place your shorts
Ha ha, thinking of adding a short @21985
You dont have any money left mate.
Added short 21980
FTSE short 7430 tp 7280…
Cable up, oil down, new month and little movement.
Also Dow may fall before next leg taking FTSE and everything else with it.
….10pt stop on Dow has tickled me 🙂
GL
I was looking for the 61.8 retrace but it didn’t look like it was going to get there
Is Mcgcapital having a day off!
Anstel glad your ok and enjoying the summer. 🙂
Been busy today so no trades this morning.. currently short from 7437, 10 stop. No change to my view – Sterling has broken out through $1.30 and probably heading higher towards $1.35 in time. Oil fundamentals are weak and it’s back close to the top of its trading range for the year. Plus earnings season has been a great success yet we’ve not managed to go anywhere to the upside. Once that stops, and we get a much needed pullback in the US markets I still think there’s a buying opportunity coming in the 7130-7200 area in the next month or so. Then probably up again into year end
Hi Morko,yes I’m fine thanks….that’s one advantage of trading over a conventional business,you can take a break at your discretion….best of luck….:0)
Looking to short Dax @61.5 for 19pts
looking to short Cac @5129 for 8pts
If you keep going at this rate Pete, you will get lucky and get a couple of points one day!
But unlike a stopped clock he cant manage it even once.
🙂
Anyway its all good. Even though its August the month of falls, stock markets are well positioned for further strength. Maybe US markets will have to correct for a few days at some point, but that will merely be a buying opportunity.
I’ve been trading this system for a year now and have made over 1500 pts with losses taken out, I have been checking this page for a lot of years now and remember a lot of good traders and some that lost everything, including myself, I’m not some person that bums about making £1000’s but I have been doing ok this past year, I know its not the normal style but it works for me, on my Dow I have the stop in with 15pts profit, at £15 per pt its ok, so it could drop 200 pts or I could get 15, I’m sorry if I annoyed anybody.
No offence was meant Pete. If it works for you, excellent. Just the frequency of trades sounded a little unusual and random, thats all. All the best!
Looks like the basis for a good system to me. It’s all about keeping the losses small and running winners. I tend to use a stop of between 6 and 10 on FTSE. If I’m stopped sometimes I go back in straight away if the initial trade still looks viable. But good to be able to constantly reassess whether it’s working or not. Probably wouldn’t move to breakeven so quickly though to avoid being pushed about before a move gets going
I just know going against the trend never got me anywhere. Sometimes it pulls backs and you get small profits but sometimes price just drifts away and nothing you can do. Averaging down and having lots of small losses is cool but do you ever wait for a 200 point drop? Or maybe I got it all wrong with your strategy?
Price has certainly stalled on the dow. So good time could be around the corner for my shorts!
Potential reversal signal for ftse on 4hr coinciding with a 3rd hut on resistance line. So closed long hedges. Will look to readd if it goes past 7450 tomorrow morning.
Just logged in to see I’m still in the Dow, Cac & Dax, if I’m stopped over night, tomorrow is another day, regarding the Dow I rarely pick tops, but I just think its due a bit of a pull back, so I have been watching it since yesterday, my daily trade strategy is based on the bollinger band, no other indicater, that’s why I get a lot of times where my trade doesn’t trigger, I have over 70% success rate and yes sometimes the stop is big, that’s the only thing I don’t like, but over the year it has earned over 1500 pts between the ftse, dax & cac. what I like is I don’t care what way the market goes, everyday I just trade what comes up on my screen.
One indicator? My life will never be the same now.