Bulls fight back after Trump Jr email release | 7405 still on the cards | 7260

12th July 2017

Great Dax short yesterday from near enough the high at 12530 to near enough the low at 12450. Worked out perfectly that one, but was a bit early going long on the FTSE as it dipped a bit lower than the 7321 as news of the Trump/Russia/Clinton saga continues, this time with Trump Jr publishing the email chain. Markets initially sold off, then read them, then rebounded – deciding in 30 minutes that it was no bother and bulls should just keep buying! The big news of the day, however, was in commodity markets. While Goldman Sachs called for oil to drop back below $40 per barrel without “shock and awe” from OPEC, crude defied that call.

Gold might have bottomed at the 1205 level as the long at 1210 gained nicely yesterday and has continued to rise overnight. Might be pre-empting a downturn in indices as there is still FTSE resistance at the 7385 area….

Looking ahead, highlights include the UK jobs report, OPEC monthly report, BoC rate decision, DoEs, and Fed’s Yellen.

The yen strengthened a second day and shares in Tokyo and Sydney declined, while those in Hong Kong rose. U.S. equity futures were slightly lower after the S&P 500 Index recovered from a sudden loss to end Tuesday flat. A gauge of the dollar weakened for a third day. Oil bounced on reports of a decline in stockpiles, and gold was higher. Treasuries and Australian bonds rose.


FTSE 100 Outlook and Prediction

The market shook off that email revelation pretty easily proving that they don’t want the markets too dip too far. The bears capitalised on the release of the emails initially but the bulls fought back pretty rapidly as the “buy the dip” mob appeared again.

We still have a lot of daily resistance around the 7380 to 7405 level and it will only be if the bulls can break that 7405 that it might get to XXXX. At the moment, every rise to this area is being sold into. Volume is pretty light though. We have the top of the 2 Bianca channels around the 7385 area and also a fib level and R1 at 7398.

Overnight news on Oil has helped push that up which will help the FTSE, at least initially, though the Australian market had quite a bearish day today. The 2 hour chart has resistance at 7355 but it looks like it will push above that – it managed to do so on the first test yesterday evening.

I still think we are going to get a test of the 7260 level and thought that the email news yesterday might have broken the 7300 level but as it didn’t, it may just hold the 7300 level instead. Tricky! If we do break above 7405 then prior to XXXX we have resistance at XXXX and XXXX to watch so a short around here might well be worth a go.

Tricky to call today, but think if we get an early rally towards that 7385 its a sell yet again there.

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46 Comments

  1. Morning. Added to Dow shorts at 426.
    Holding ftse longs and shorts. Added to ftse shorts at 60 this morning.

  2. With dovish comments from Bank of England’s (BoE) Ben Broadbent, we are seeing weak pound drive the FTSE back into the crucial 7381-7392 resistance zone.Should we post an hourly close above 7392, then this could point towards a breakout in play. However, until that happens there is a good chance we will see the sellers come in once more from here.

  3. Shorts covered at 7395. Not convinced in the rally but need to be neutral now. Will drop the cover if we sag back into the range

    1. Also, kind of expecting it to go back down as we’re already 70 points up on the day and other indices are at key resistance areas. This sort of move will have taken out a lot of short stops

    1. Emails? Trump who? Move along now, nothing to see here. Just keep spending your money, and slogging away at work and don’t worry about the bigger boys.

  6. there was a lot of strength there but no follow through after the initial break. Nick has always said 405 was next mind you

    1. Have to see what it does here though. Been waiting for 7405 since last Monday! Channel resistance slightly higher now at 7430 and 7445.

  8. Short small Dax and Dow. Short large FTSE at 7400.

    I can see plenty of potential downside movement. Another Trump email would be helpful too!

  9. I’m short on all of them.

    Caution on all though as I can see a rise coming.

    Cable is low, FTSE could easily hit 7500+

    Be careful and be plan ahead for both scenarios.

    GL

  10. Took some profit at 7380. If it breaks I will top up shorts – can see another 40/50 point drop. Looking at index v cable this morning.

  12. Technically we are in the middle of nowhere. Question is who will act first, bulls or bears?

    1. I see it as slightly bearish myself not being able to break 405 given the amount of short stops that would have been hit. If it goes through 80 easily then I’m Yogi

    1. Hi Jack,yeah it’s ok…all my short hedges closed…did well on them ..long now, BE 96 looking for upwards of 500 as originally planned after a rather challenging diversion..::0)…. No losses taken as yet apart from finance….mind you it can all change in a flash so not taking anything for granted….

      2. Good approach, well done you managed to hold that long, must have been nerve wrecking. Just had a scalp 12627 to 12644, I should have possibly held, but took it at the top too late, sorting computer problems now.

        1. Yeah I’ve been out,it’s break even at 496….it wasn’t the most relaxing trade for sure….had to take some pressure but so far so good,good luck with the Dax Jack…

        2. It’s not too bad. Realistically it will get to 450, then 480 which is already 62% retrace. I would (if I had guts to hold that much) just settle there covered with my previous wins. I think 6480 will be a mile stone to pass but markets always surprise. I just give my opinion. GL to you too. Thursday is still quite a strong day. Hope this rebound continues, Dax was very strong so far, I think tomorrow it will definitely be higher. I’ve seen these moves before and this one looks like the all night goer.

  17. Cashed covers from 7405 at 7440. Pivot ping pong now with this 7440-50 area being key. If the bulls can clear that then I think anstel might be ok.. otherwise there’s a chance we head back down now

    1. Followed Dow up and should be 40 point further down by now. Dax has been expensive for me today!

    2. It never does. Just notice after a long time of watching. Dax never gives up. Once you stuck, you stuck.

  19. I notice the ftse down to 7100 brigade have suddenly changed their tune. I wish they wouldn’t post their uneducated comments because there are people who read this and assume they know what they are talking about. Fortunately for myself I take no notice.

    1. Well sir, I assume your comment was partly towards me. Be assured that I hold on to that opinion. And it will happen.

    2. I’ve not seen anyone who was looking for the market to go lower posting anything uneducated, so not sure who that refers to. A number of us have been selling 7380 over and over which has proved very profitable. Obviously that broke up today, losses are a part of trading so I’m sure people were exiting positions on the break. In terms of the bigger picture, the ball is now in the bulls court but there is still some resistance around 7450 that would need to be cleared before 7500+ can even be contemplated. Given the lack of oversold conditions it’s quite likely that 7300 isn’t the ultimate bottom of this move so look for breaks back below 7380 to suggest another leg lower could be under way. For the avoidance of doubt, this means I’m looking at short positions in the 7440-50 area and longs in the 7380-400 area. Playing that trading range until it breaks. If we do break 7380 again, I still think 7100-7200 is possible.

    1. Well, if that’s what makes you happy, so be it!
      Have just been trying to be helpful by sharing short term price movements as I read them. Long term targets stay fully valid.
      Have seen some good calls from you on this forum before so I will ignore your comments and stop short of saying anything more.

  21. By the way, closed all my longs at 7430 now.
    I am 100% short on ftse and dow.
    There will be a time for longs but it’s not now

  22. After being taken for ££££!!!!

    I am short on dax and sp500. Debating cutting and shorting FTSE?

  23. Pulled dax short, now short Sp500 at twice my aga pp!!!!

    Reckless….I don’t think so, consensus is this peaked at 2455, Caldaro and his EW analysis also align with this. It also had a weak close

    Long story short It may rise, however with all the tools and analysis I have to hand its reward Merit the risk!!!

  24. I’m more annoyed I pulled my long 50pp on platinum trade from 990 t0 901….now its 915 and rising

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