29th September 2017
It was a bit of a slow rise but being bullish yesterday was the right stance as the S&P 500 and Russel 200 both closed at new record highs. The US rose on hopes U.S. tax reform will aid economic growth. Meanwhile, Asian stocks outside Japan were mostly higher on the final trading day of what’s been a strong quarter. I am expecting today to also see a rise on the FTSE 100, despite it being the last trading day of the month and “usually” weaker. I am thinking a rise to the top of the 20 day Bianca channel at 7347 looks distinctly possible, if the initial resistance at 7330 can be broken. The ASX200 (Australia) had a decent bullish session to close out the month also.
FTSE 100 Outlook and Prediction
It’s a Friday which can be a bit weird, and the last trading day of the month, which can be a bit bearish. However, I am thinking that we will also end the month strongly following Asia’s lead and building on the S&P closing at record highs. The FTSE still has some way to go to start making its own record highs (above 7700) but we might well see a decent Q4 this year.
Anyway, onto today. Initially there is resistance at the 7330 level that we are just testing as I write this, but I also have decent support at the 7320/7315 level. If the bulls can break above the 7330 then 7347 looks possible and a possible break higher towards 7362. Most of September has been fairly flat so we might not get to much of a massive move today. Famous last words! I have put the stop fairly close on the trade plan long, however, if you wanted to give it more breathing space then below yesterdays low at 7288 would do. (FTSE was annoying yesterday taking that 7290 stop out on our 7305 long.)
If the bears were to push it down today then as mentioned, yesterdays low is an initial support, 7290, with 7267 below that. If it did get there then a long is worth a go at this level.
We have been in a pretty tight range recently – narrowing to 7280 to 7330 so I am expecting it to break soon, and at the moment it looks like a break upwards. The 10 day channels on both Raff and Bianca are rising nicely, the market seems to have shaken off any immediate worries and the US is pulling things upwards on the Trump tax reforms.
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Just when it seemed it might turn over it makes the breakthrough.
The weekly chart is in downtrend but there is a gap to fill at 7450 and a market this determined may seek to fill it.
There must be alot of short-covering just now and many losses taken.
Small long this morning looking for another boost on monday.
Lot more clarity this morning. The most clear it’s been all week which imho has been sideways until today. The trend is your friend, not sure today is the day to fight the trend and short this but who knows 🙂
Morning all. Running longs hedged 50%.
Running dow shorts
You were running longs for ages and when it moves in your favour you hedge?
This is the time to add to longs and run profits 🙂
Reward yourself 🙂
Well yeah, I am watching some key levels for a breakout. At which point i will close the shorts. Dont think we are completely out of the woods though. My longs are from the recent low so if it does go up i am well in the money anyway.
In simple terms i think a double bottom is due.
IMO hedging gets you nowhere, in fact it more likely turns winning positions into losing ones.
Run winners and cut losers.
There is no middle-ground.
Apart from money-management but those trades are in the same direction so does not constitute hedging.
And MM allows you to run winners even if your timing lacked precision.
I think hedging does have a place but only in the context of winning trades. Say I’m short from 7380 and I think it’s going to 7200, then it’s gets to 7300 and looks like it might bounce. I might want to then cover my short position for a counter trend move. However, hedging to avoid taking a loss is a mess. It’s all about getting out ASAP when wrong. Even if you’re good at reading price action you’re still only going to get it right 70% of the time so need to protect yourself the other 30%. 2017 has been a terrible year for running trades for the most part. Just look at the daily and compare to pre November 2016. There are hardly any trending moves, it’s just all chop. That means you need to just get in and get out. Would much prefer running stuff for 300 points but it’s not on
Short 100 & 7363, R2 Resistance and RSI looking a bit overbought , stop at 7378. As it’s month end see if we have a bit of a pullback to the 7330 level. Looking strong though I have to admit.
Breakout of 7320-30 negates the bearish trend. 7380 pivot the next area of interest. Gains could stall around here and give some back
We are in a fourth wave retrace up so should be going up but just being cautious
Where are you counting waves 1-3? Doesn’t wave 4 have to avoid overlapping wave 1?
Sorry i mean 4th of A. There are two counts, one i am referring to starts at 550
Any rate rises will be ‘to a limited extent and gradual’
-. Mark Carney
Oops, sorry, or was it Yellen
;0)
Has the Dow caught a cold? Everything else flying except Dow???
…too many burgers