Technical analysis for 16th February 2026
FTSE100 Bias
- Structure
- Still trading inside the rising channel
- Price holding above 10EMA & 25EMA → trend intact
- Pullback candle but no structural breakdown
- Higher lows remain valid
- Bias
- Bullish while above 10,396 (S1 / channel support)
- Continuation favoured after shallow pullbacks
- Expectations Today
- Early dip = buy opportunity
- Grind back toward 10,515 → 10,565
S&P500 Bias
- Structure
- Clear rejection from the upper channel
- Now trading below the fast EMA
- Momentum shift = short-term corrective phase
- Lower high confirmed
- Bias
- Bearish below 6,876 (R1 / EMA zone)
- Intraday rallies = sell setups.
- Expectations Today
- Rotation toward:
- 6,787
- 6,745
- Only reclaiming 6,876+ flips back to neutral/bullish.
- Rotation toward:
DAX40 Bias
- Structure
- Strong impulsive move followed by profit-taking
- Still holding above the EMA cluster
- Rising short-term trendline acting as support
- No lower-low confirmation
- Bias
- Bullish above 24,758
- Neutral only if price accepts below the EMA base.
- Expectations Today
- Likely dip → continuation
- Upside targets:
- 25,006
- 25,120
Summary
Continuation of the uptrend with potential consolidation. The market appears to be in a bullish phase but may encounter resistance around 10,480-10,515.
- Above 10,434 → bullish day
- Below 10,430 → corrective sell day
- Between them → range / fake moves
If the bulls can break the 10470 Hull MA resistance this morning then we should be on course for a drift higher and a bit of a bull Monday with the 10515 R2 level in their sights. They will certainly be keen to build on Friday's bounce from the 10380 level. In addition to the Hull MA resistance at 10470 this is also daily resistance so the first test of this level is likely to see a reaction - profit taking and some shorting. Above this, and we may well push above it this afternoon, then I am looking for a rise to test the 10515 R2 level, and possibly the 10524 daily level.
If the bulls can hold above 10500 today then it bodes well for more upside this week, though a lot will depend on the USA, and we have bearish S&P500 and Nasdaq charts at the moment... On the outside chance that they were to break above the 10525 level today then we may well see R3 at 10565 tested.
On the flip side, the bears will be looking to break below the 10430 daily pivot level, but with the 30m 200ema and coral (green) both here as well I am more inclined to go with it holding. However, below that then 10390 is the next major support with daily, key fib and S1 here, with 10345 below that.
Generally today I am thinking that we will see a bull Monday and a rise to test the 10515+ level.
Similar for the S&P500 as well with a rise toward the 6900 level and a test of the 25ema on the daily. The bulls may struggle to break above this initially as it's also splitting the 2h chart Hull and coral resistance levels. If they were to break it though then we should see a rise towards the 6923 R1 level.
Good luck today.
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