21st August 2017
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Mixed bag in Asia during Friday despite the US rallying on Friday (though still closing down) after news that Steve Bannon was being removed from his post. Helped out our S&P long on Friday though with a decent +12. The FTSE100 is back testing 7300 in out of hours pricing, and this level has been holding all this month, despite the low volume. A break of this though and we have the 20 day Bianca at 7272 and the 10 day at 7206 but also a possible trip down to 7100 still on the cards. The 2 hour chart is bearish still with resistance at 7365 area – could be wroth a short there today if we get a bull Monday rise.
FTSE 100 Outlook and Prediction
We might see an initial rise to the daily pivot and Fridays closing level at 7325 first thing this morning before a test of the recent low at 7291. The bulls will be very keen to keep defending the 7300 level I feel, though with a fairly weak Asia session on Monday we might be dragged below that. If so then I wouldn’t be surprised if all of this week is bearish and we see the 7200 or lower level (possibly 7175, bottom of the 10 day Raff) at some point. There isn’t a lot to get excited about if you are a bull at the moment, with South Korea and the US about to start some military drills under NK’s nose, US politics slightly chaotic and data not particularly great and thin on the ground this week.
That said, we have Draghi speaking Wednesday and he does like to talk the markets up, and then of course we have the Jackson Hole symposium later this week too. With Yellen and Draghi among the central bankers attending, traders will be looking for direction emanating from that. The theme this year is “Foster a Dynamic Global Economy,” at a time when persistently weak inflation in the U.S. and elsewhere has clouded prospects for sustainable, stronger growth worldwide.
So, watching to see the 7300 level or just below holds and if we can once again have a Bull Monday for a rise to 7370 and above. I feel that the 7370 area might see a bit of a bearish reaction though.
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Its all about last weeks low of 7290. I remain in cash. If that low breaks it has to drop another 100 at least. Waiting to buy but cant do it yet. Gold retreated hastily from 1300 on Friday. Looks like another short-term top but another assault on 1300 more likely to succeed. Again, waiting to buy.
Quite flat on the FTSE 100 today. Had a long order at 7291 which never took.
S&P500 long from 2420 just closed at 2429.
I will be very tempted to buy this tomorrow in view of good support / double bottom at 7290 area.