3rd April 2017
Good morning I hope you had good weekend. Spring certainly sprung with some great weather (in the South anyway)! The news flow was a little bit more pessimistic though with airports and nuclear power stations in the UK told to increase their security measures in light of “new” intelligence about possible destructive hacking. Mind you, there are probably loads of things that we don’t hear about so the market wont be too effected. It was also kicking off with Spain and the EU over Gibraltar. Again. Lord Howard even throwing the “war” element in and saying our Navy is bigger than your Navy!
I am thinking that we will get another bull Monday, bear Tuesday pattern this week. Today is the start of the new investing month so might see a rise towards 7400 as the new money flows in. The top of the 10 day Bianca channel is 7393 so thinking around this area for resistance before we get a bit of a leg down. The end of last month/quarter on Friday wasn’t as bullish as everyone was thinking either.
FTSE 100 Outlook and Prediction
I am thinking that we might see a bit of bullishness today as its the start of the new month. Last month ended with a bit of a whimper really, but the 7320 low area held ok. I can see a rise up towards the 7400/7420 area at some point soon before possibly getting another leg down, which may go as far as 7200. There are the usual political situations simmering away with Brexit/Gibralter and the US and North Korea which may unsettle a few traders.
The 2 hour chart is bearish at the monent with resistance from the Hull moving average at 7361, so we may see some stutters here if we are going to rise back up towards 7400. I have gone for an initial dip this morning, mainly as the 30min chart has a bit of a bearish look about it. The ASX200 also experienced a bit of a dip and rise day.
We have NFP this Friday as well as the minutes from the Fed March meeting which might give a stern on the timeframes for further rate rises.
Generally today though I am thinking that we will see a bullish day and watching the 7360 and 7410 areas for resistance. Generally war rhetoric is good for stocks!
Presumably this relative pound strength is what has FTSE lagging the Dax, which is on a significant breakout. Euro has been very weak last 4 sessions. I reckon pound set to encounter its 200 sma around end of week so not expecting much movement in FTSE until then. We didnt get a booming start to the new quarter.
Still out. No clear direction, appears to have a short bias though.
Not a buyers market at this point for sure. Wont be adding to longs at this point.
You are still holding longs from 325? 😮
I am and slightly higher up too. I buy etfs no SB. 40% of capital deployed (MONEY MGT) and the remainder awaiting better buy signals, either above or below current level but preferably above. I dont use indicators as such as I think the candles alone are sufficient but I do have bollinger bands on chart and I like buying bounces off the lower one on the daily chart. I also have the monthly pivots on and again would buy a decent bounce off one of those. Monthly pivot for FTSE is 7320 would be resigned to further falls if closes under that level today.
Starting to look a lot more bearish
First time we haven’t had bull Monday for a long time
UK gilt prices continue to climb implying interest rates not rising any time soon.
Very weak day considering its Monday and beginning of month / quarter. If NY doesnt rally this evening looks likely to drop for a while. Dax currently showing a shooting star candle suggesting 12000 may have to be tested again.
Dax didn’t reach tops of the tops by 12 points. Must be upsetting for those who waited to make b/e at 12399.2 🙂