BOE today NFP tomorrow Super Thursday 7360 support on FTSE 100

3rd August 2017

Lacklustre day from the bulls yesterday with the FTSE 100 dropping down to the 7400 support level and then not really doing an awful lot. Even the divi hunter driven rise at the end of the day only managed to get it up to 7410. Overnight however the 7400 level has held as support, despite weakness in Australasia, following soft Chinese Caixin Services PMI.

Today is “Super Thursday” when we have the BOE and a rate announcement. Will Carney be more hawkish? Rates are largely expected to remain on hold, despite calls from a former governor yesterday to raise rates. The bigger news will be tomorrow with the NFP jobs data, forecasted at 180,000.


FTSE 100 Outlook and Prediction

Daily FTSE 100 Support Resistance Channels
Daily FTSE 100 Support Resistance Channels

For today I am looking at support at the 7360 level, and resistance at 7460. That’s quite a range really, so we may not see both of those levels, however with the BOE today then it may well be a little bit more volatile. Also ahead of NFP tomorrow – the forecast is that US employers added 180k of jobs in July and a beat of that should help the bulls. They were pretty weak yesterday with the initial drop down and then a lacklustre day staying around the 7400 level while they wait and see.

I am thinking that we will get an initial drop again today down towards that support level and then a bit of a rebound from there. If the bears break the 7360 area then we are looking at a decline towards the 7334 fib level and maybe lower so they will be keen to hang on to that support. At the moment the 2hr coral line is supporting things at 7400, however with that weakness yesterday the moving averages have gone bearish with 7404 resistance. So not really much in it at the moment.

With NFP tomorrow, and a large 40 point divi next week I don’t think we will see a major sell off just yet unless there is something unexpected. However, once that divi is out the way then the picture may well change.

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18 Comments

      1. Just dipping my toe in the water. Only small …..I figured as it broke the 92 low earlier it might be developing further weakness and might get a dip lower than 88…… Hasn’t worked so far but never mind..don’t want to get too involved as I have other things to do at the moment ….

  4. Not sure what to make of the price action today, looks a bit weird. Breadth in the US looks quite weak now so could be a leg down coming there. Bank of England and NFP usually bullish no matter the outcome so let’s see what happens here

    1. Would say it’s a technical move profit taking on sterling.. the actual rate talk looks pretty much in line with expectations. Sterling could dip a bit lower here if NFP comes in good but it’s broken out and trending up so need to buy sterling on weakness

      1. Voting split inline at 6-2, first rate hike timing in line. So that should be neutral. Then as you say, going up slightly more than the curve priced which is hawkish. Reinvesting in corporates in 2019 is dovish. So overall a fairly balanced and neutral announcement yet Sterling dropped a cent. So all in all it’s technically driven and will probably fade the moves

  9. We live in a new world of permanently low interest rates. Central banks take turns at doing nothing. The wonder is that gold is not at 10000. No threat to stocks though which will continue to move higher .

  10. No stopping the FTSE going up, once GBP/USD dropped like a brick..
    Dax seems to be having a hard time , not even positive. ?

  12. This market is probably the most difficult of all time to call medium term, certainly the hardest since I’ve been trading and looking back at charts I can’t find any situations where it behaves quite like this. It’s just so choppy.. everything that is coming through is treated bullish (earnings, data, central banks) but we still can’t sustain the gains. Inbetween events there’s a tendency to go down, but no breakdowns before the next event comes to ramp it back up. I suspect it’s all part of a topping process, but definitely not good to swing trade. Have to just keep selling rallies and buying small dips until it changes

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