Asian stocks erased declines buy the dip 6140 6074 support 6210 resistance

Support 6143 6140 6138 6074 6064
Resistance 6173 6177 6190 6210 6220 6241
Good morning. The most frustrating thing yesterday was the short order was set at 6206 and the highest sell price was 6204 before it then dropped steadily for most of the day. Drives you mad sometimes! The low at 6107 has held well since, with a fairly decent overnight rise, helped by an upbeat FED panel discussion yesterday, with Yellen reiterating that they do look at the global situation before taking action. Meanwhile, in the UK, the general feeling is that interest rate rises will not happen before 2020.

US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg

  • Japan’s Fast Retailing plunges after cutting profit outlook
  • Yen takes a step back after five-day surge; ringgit declines

Asian stocks erased declines as the yen’s first drop in six days buoyed Japanese equities. The Australian dollar and the South African rand led gains among commodity currencies as oil and industrial metals rose.

The Topix index swung to a 1.4 percent advance in Tokyo as the yen pulled back from its strongest level in 1 1/2 years, while U.S. equity-index futures signaled a rebound from Thursday’s drop. Crude oil jumped, heading for its seventh weekly advance in eight weeks, as U.S. output continues to decrease before a meeting between suppliers to discuss freezing production. Nickel added 0.7 percent to lead base metals higher, while the Aussie and the rand strengthened at least 0.4 percent.

Investors are pausing for breath at the end of a wild week that saw equities whipsawed as volatility in the $5.3 trillion-a-day foreign-exchange market climbed toward a 2011 high. The top forecaster for the yen is bracing for it to surge past 105 versus the dollar as demand for havens sidelines efforts by the government to stem the currency’s rally.

“The yen has taken over from China as the antagonist,” said Sam Tuck, a senior currency strategist at ANZ Bank New Zealand in Auckland. “The only certainty is uncertainty reigns.”

Fed Impact
Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s March meeting this week noted concern over the global outlook and International Monetary Fund chief Christine Lagarde signaled the organization is likely to lower its forecast for world growth. Alan Greenspan, reflecting in a Thursday panel discussion on international woes he confronted as Fed chairman in the 1990s, said global developments must inevitably be taken into account by U.S. policy makers. Current Chair Janet Yellen, who was also on the panel, said she and her colleagues carefully consider the impact of their actions on the rest of the world.
China is due to publish a raft of economic indicators next week including March inflation and exports, with reports on European consumer prices and U.S. retail sales also scheduled.

Stocks
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index added 0.1 percent as of 1:51 p.m. Tokyo time, reversing a loss of as much as 1.4 percent. The Topix’s gain pared its weekly decline to 0.8 percent. Fast Retailing Co. plunged 12 percent after Asia’s biggest retailer cut its profit forecast.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index retreated 0.7 percent. Technology shares drove Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index down 0.4 percent. The Kospi index in Seoul dropped 0.3 percent, while New Zealand’s S&P/NZX 50 Index was down 0.4 percent to pare its eighth straight weekly advance.

Futures on the S&P 500 added 0.2 percent Friday, after the U.S. benchmark slid 1.2 percent last session, when declines in Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. led the Dow Jones Industrial Average down by more than 170 points.

Currencies
The yen snapped a five-day climb, weakening 0.6 percent to 108.88 per dollar after surging to 107.67 last session, its strongest level since October 2014. Despite Friday’s pullback, the currency is still up more than 2.5 percent this week as the Fed’s dovish approach to U.S. interest-rate policy weighs on the greenback and as traders speculate that officials are reluctant to intervene in the market.

Japan’s Finance Minister Taro Aso said Friday that rapid yen movements — whether strengthening or weakening — are undesirable, especially if they’re abrupt. Recent movements have been one-sided and the government will act appropriately if necessary, he said.

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, which tracks the greenback against 10 major peers, was little changed. The Aussie gained 0.6 percent to 75.39 U.S. cents, while the rand strengthened 0.8 percent.

Bonds
While benchmark Treasuries unwound some of last session’s gains, Australian bonds led an advance in Asia. Yields on Australian government debt due in a decade fell five basis points, or 0.05 percentage point, to 2.40 percent. Rates on similar maturity Treasuries were up two basis points to 1.71 percent after falling seven basis points on Thursday.

U.S. debt has advanced along with other haven assets such as the yen and gold amid renewed concern that easy monetary policies haven’t boosted global growth.

“We are seeing central bank fatigue,” Niv Dagan, executive director at Peak Asset Management LLC in Melbourne, said by phone. “We’re definitely moving to a risk-off scenario and there’s been a strong flight to safety. Investors are cautious and are extremely nervous that global central bank intervention won’t actually stimulate growth in the economy.”

China’s 10-year sovereign bonds are heading for the biggest weekly drop since May, with yields up eight basis points to 2.92 percent, before a report next week that’s expected to show inflation accelerated in March.

Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude rallied 2.3 percent to $38.11 a barrel, after falling 1.3 percent last session. Futures are on track for a 3.6 percent weekly advance. Brent was up 1.8 percent to $40.14 on Friday.

Speculation has returned that Russia and OPEC members can reach a deal on freezing oil output when they meet in Doha on April 17. Saudi Arabia has said it will only agree if it’s joined by other suppliers including Iran, while Kuwait said a deal can be done without Iran’s support. An unexpected drop in U.S. crude inventories in data out this week also helped crude’s recovery.

Copper for three-month delivery added 0.3 percent, with nickel and tin also climbing. Copper slumped the most in three months last session, wiping out its gains for 2016, as miners and investors gathering at an industry conference in Chile expressed concern over demand for the metal. Nickel rallied 0.8 percent after sliding 2.3 percent Thursday. [Bloomberg]

FTSE 100 Outlook and Prediction

FTSE 100 Prediction
FTSE 100 Prediction

Today has a feeling of buying the dips as a good plan, with that 6140 area showing as decent support on the 30min chart so a good point to enter. The live charts pivot is 6153, whilst the IG one is 6142, as well as a cluster of supports around 6138. We have the top of the Bianca 10 day at 6210 today, and yesterday the bulls yet again failed to break and hold 6200. One time they might well manage it and if they do then we should see a rise to 6300 fairly quickly. At the moment we are stuck in the 6100 to 6200 range still. Not too much to say really as fairly simple plan which is the long at 6140. There is a bit of news out at 09:30 but market impact is low to medium, as it revolves around manufacturing and industrial production. If the 6140 is broken by the bears then I think we will be on for a trip towards 6075 again which is the recent low and the bottom of the 20 day Bianca channel (so worth shorting a break of 6140). As its Friday stay cautious as they can be funny days to trade.

186 Comments

  1. Hello and welcome to more of the same.
    In the top half of the range so looking at STB, managed to grab at short at 86 and sitting with it b/e. Carrying on picking tops on high rsi rallies.
    Ploughed through the ECB stuff last night, pretending to be a professional trader, one phrase stood out:
    “Central banks are protected from insolvency due to their ability to create money and can therefore operate with negative equity.”
    Good game to be in.

    1. Morning tmfp
      Lol ”operate with negative equity” indeed definitely good for the economy 🙂
      Anyways missed the short in higher 80s as I was expecting a bull run to 6200 again.
      Don’t have any open positions at the moment so just looking for a high RSI bounce to short.
      GL

      1. Yeah, I was waiting and waiting for another spike but had a “F**k it” moment.
        I don’t think actual numbers are important at the moment, or intraday minor s/r levels. Essentially there’s no difference between say 6150 and 6175, it’s a momentum trade until the overall range breaks imo.

        1. not much to do now, we are trap in the 10pt range for now until 60 breaks.
          I still think we will hit 6140 pretty soon as not many buyers this morning!

    1. Thanks WSF, read this earlier this morning.
      I bought some S&P at 2034 last night and sold it for 2042 at the close!
      2034 is definitely a good support on S&P and 2075 is resistance for now.
      GL

      1. Nice.Talking about Indicators and ranges I have a daychart of Deutsche Bank as a proxy,was looking for signs of buying re Draghi money etc etc,but anyway it’s green today so far and right on top of Feb support,although on weekly/monthly thats nothing to notice lol.

  3. Italy is up nearly 3%, I haven’t placed a single trade this morning and I don’t know what to do now lol.
    I guess I will stick to STB and extreme RSI bounces for now

  4. Morning..got stuck in a bull trap long yesterday on Ftse and with my Dax languishing in its box at the same time I stopped trading….just sold the Ftse long for +12 minus the finance.Some big fallers on Ftse yday.glencore was about 5.8% down Berkley ,Pearson and lloyds all around…..give or take 5% down….not checked yet but if buyers are returning to these and with Dow and Dax lowish could help push it up……GL all

    1. I started great yday morning with first two trades a plus 10 and a plus 12 then got stuck…..still working on this tendency to push for more…..that’s how I got stuck yday.

      1. Same here Anstel got had 3 great trades then my Dax long bit me as was buying the dips really looking at it now was just stupid trading was really heavy down by close last night but swung back round and after closing 1 trade for just under £1200 pulled back round and now only £60 down from yesterday and much smaller position. Had some great weeks and think I got a little over confidant, plus has been a hard week to trade.

        1. I’ve been bitten very very badly in the past through having enormously successful weeks and getting overconfident and then blowing the bloody account.Keeping it all much smaller now and trying to learn the process and understand my own personality……once I manage to change my thinking to taking what the market is offering…instead of pushing for every last bit of profit I can get…then I should hopefully start to be consistant…….then I will allow myself to trade bigger. Good Luck Smokin……

  5. Morning All, I got a bit rabid yesterday evening then wierdly made a couple of quid being long Dow through the close.
    Still very much sell the bounce for me, top scalped one first thing for 15 points but big short (Dave 2, the sequel) currently average at around 50.

        1. I kind of like it eg on daily FTSE the middle line would have been a good cue for the last month,mind you so would a straight line 🙂 .

      2. Don’t drink it myself…….got to have a proper job to afford that kind of extravagance….I’m trying to learn trading….lucky if I can pay for the water to fill the kettle! :0)

          1. Yeah Mr Pumps cousin is putting all sorts of crap in the water……He doesn’t like families……People need to wake up and smell the roses…….we on the same page mate…

  7. Morning all
    Had fun last night bottom picking the turn on the Dow, but seem to be out of sync this morning somehow managing to lose money even while predicting the move on the open to 85ish. For some reason I re-longed on pullback thinking it might run higher and then lost silly points. Struggling to separate technicals from sentiment (my own).
    Anyhow, currently short from 74 S11 and hoping for a break of 65 with a run to 57 and perhaps more if it gets some pace.

  8. Pretty big up trend on 15min intercepting about 6165 at the moment. Can’t bring myself to trade it for some reason

      1. Yeah good for me to remember that… Plenty of points around day to day, no need for FOMO.
        Still waiting for 65 to break. Slooooow.

    1. Is bad news bad today or is it good though…….it’s bloody opposite world so who knows?

  11. Just going to have my morning cocktail……….estrogen with a twist of fluoride poured slowly onto a teabag with a dash of cows milk and a small spoon of white processed sugar…….

      1. Yeah I have cut back on the official poison……used to have two now it’s either a small one or nothing……

          2. Need to know if I should watch my Ps and Qs……?….plus …I’m bored……plus…..if I was going to have a username based around food it would be ….Roastbeefandyorkshirepudding…….:0)

          3. The best username we have on here is Chippy I think lol, I always fancy fish and chips everytime I see his comments 🙂

          4. Haha only in trading style! Perhaps I’ve had too much estrogen from this water recently

          5. Yeah I can smell the salt and vinegar on the chips too :0) .He could be a carpenter though!

          6. Chippy’s a chippie, doesn’t run one.
            You wouldn’t guess what tmfp means in a million goes…

          7. I know what tmfp stands for but your too modest to say………………..Too Much F**kin Profit :0)

          1. WSF your knowledge base overwhelms me…….I thought it was some chick sat in front of a chart eating pot noodles and making ££££££millions…..next time I will check with you first :0)

        3. Oh that’s ok then …..I can add a few @s and #s into the conversation then .b@llocks it’s just jumped back up.

      1. Your just showing off now! Great Trade Senu well done ……eclipsed my 0.2pts slightly :0)

      1. Your definitely right Senu…….I’m using wide stops and smaller size though ….well I’m trying this style for now and see if it works better over a longer run of trades…….it didn’t work in January and feb but it’s working better at the moment……..depends on the stability of the market I think, good luck mate..

  15. Off to do my Friday duties, soon, taking half the short out at 70 and running the rest for 52. Why 52?

  16. Maybe I didn’t take enough of Dax, but when I saw +30 points I thought take it. The target was 9630 though but took 9620. Plus had +before that, so in overall very pleased today.
    (Had longs 9585, 9595)

    1. The concern for me was 9620 temporarily res. and a big gap in trading. Today I was left along here.

  17. Good entries you had, Senu. I was taking my longs at the same time pretty much but I didn’t see your posts until now.

  18. Hello All,

    Been busy with work last couple of days after, just one trade today short on Dax from 618 – 20 point stop. Really going to run this if not stopped out and check later

    1. Makes sence. 9620 seems acts as a strong resistance right now. GL
      I was in longs today so to turn into shorts is harder for me atm.

          1. Yeah, now I’m thinking why I came out and tempted to go short for revenge. But I know this is a wrong thing to do, compulsion.

      1. Dax is looking positive on the 4 hr chart but all the SMAs on the 3 min Dow are in compression yeah she’s goin now.

          7. We had a golden cross on the 10 min Dow but the 15 min is not yeah yet…..yes it is a bit risky Senu….

  22. I was clean shaven when I put these trades on…………look like Robinson Cruesoe now :0)

    1. On recent performance that looks like a good trade but sooner or later it must change to a new range I would have thought Rick…good luck mate.

      1. That steady decline on the Dow last night was alarm bells to me…….might be wrong….

        1. Yeah, I have got the same feeling that we will break this 6060-6200 range today and it’s friday after all.
          But on the other side if we do get to 6220 then I think we will definitely be back to 6150 by 16:30

          1. Just going back to the barbers for another wet shave!!!!everything comes to he who waits……let’s see how true that is?

  24. I’m sure you all noticed already, but we didn’t hit 6100 on the run down this time -6107 low.. It’s the first time in the range this has happened and now the run up on hourly or 4hr looks extremely direct. I’ve been refusing to be drawn into it for some reason, but have lost limit down fighting the losing battle. So, I’d guess that the upper end of the range is gonna blow… Of course who knows what Dow will do…

      1. Mind you, what’s this expedited meeting the fed has called on Monday (see zerohedge.com)… And Dow not looking very chirpy at all

    1. Still holding Senu……i think its going to breakout…..if I’m wrong im wrong and I’ll live with it……..

  26. Afternoon all, had a bit of a traumatic morning and now see we are all the way back at nigh on 6200. My ‘rabidness’ last night hasn’t really paid! Anyway, just added to the short at 95.

  30. Back again 🙂
    The eleventh spike above 6200 on the daily in five weeks, but it’s going to be different this time….lol, why’s that then? Gut feeling? tarot?

        1. Should bounce a little here 90, getting a bit one way o/sold, but if down to 70 today, another big fat fail.
          Totally dependent on the DOW though.

          3. and all for 3, didn’t want to follow that DOW weakness did we? Shame would have liked 80’s..
            That’s all from me folks, have a great weekend, hopefully I won’t be here early next week.

            a quick short at 02

    4. £1.99 …….can’t put that on at City…….gotta go the whole hog at a full 2……damn the expense :0)…… most I ever traded was £185 pp never again without guaranteed stops….the buggers could steal your house……stops arnt worth a damn if it moves very quickly……beware Rick you know what your doing just be aware….good luck mate…..

        1. Well, Anstel the trade was calculated and the most money I was risking is profits from this afternoon trade win from 6215 to 6195.
          Cheers mate

          1. You know what your doing Rick but calculating a certain loss is only guaranteed with a guaranteed stop….it’s alot more dangerous when your going long…….just mentioned it mate that’s all…….not trying to be a smart arse.When the Paris attack happened I was long…….couldn’t do anything because market was closed so I mistakenly took my resourses out and decided to take the loss…..It was a big loss……thought they would shut trade when I ran out of margin…..no way….the buggers let it run with no margin till it started to turn…..then closed it out leaving me with a debt………just sayin……till you get shafted you never really know how ruthless the SB company’s are…….You can lose more than your deposit……….that’s why….good luck mate.

  34. DAX gave up 50% of the gains, not the FTSE. why did this puppy follow dow today?
    Have a lovely weekend all.

  35. 6217 was the highest, I bet stops were taken on Nick’s trade. Also RJ’s stop was violated by uptrust. As for me, if I knew this short was a keeper, I would have held it from 9663 av. which I had. But took only 5 believe me or not. The main reason, didn’t want to risk with my profits today.

    1. Sorry, I always call it uptrust, but it’s upthrust. LOL Basically when the price should be doing the 1st retrace it’s breaking the top instead – false breakout – and gets back below.
      For example, Dax from 13.30 didn’t make upthrust, but FTSE definitely did it but didn’t break 6186 though, yet, who knows.
      On Dow it’s a proper upthrust since 13.30: from 13.30 to 14.30 1st wave, there should be a retrace but instead it broke the top and fell below 14.30 price. Proper one. Other indices tried to resemble something, but Dax stayed resilient.

    1. Hi WSF thought everybody had knocked off….I’m fishing again long from 93……got my best spinner on and a number 8 hook :0)

      1. They are biting well at the moment……tempted to up size but not going too….bad disapline and its Friday……just want to learn the process till its second nature….

        1. Yes I’d like to see it move away from 17600,took two small scalps on the short side but didnt feel comfortable,so nothing since the 2nd visit to 588,might leave it until the closing rally if it just stays in this range,although the rig count is in 15mins,so that miight help.

      1. 16th week down,but Oil is so up today and for the last few weeks people have been saying that the rig count should be ignored as it doesnt influence storage levels now with Iran etc etc coming back on line.

          1. Have you seen that single click trade button……just had a look at it…..so long as it’s not green it’s still double click trading…..much safer…..

          2. CNBC say focus is on poor earnings expected for 1st 1/4 and that is pulling down US retail etc etc today.
            Going by Deutsche Bank as an indicator nothing got resolved lol,but FTSE oficially closed above 6200 and U.S isnt going down at the moment, it didnt reach recent highs and 60 min Dow chart is a bit flick a coin for me although on balance I’d say up rather than down is still there eg 2 hr + charts.I’d be surprised if we didnt get a rally for the Friday close too,just wont get to 800.Dow weekly is interesting because that would be a heck of a double bottom if it breaks back up through 900.The flip side of all the negatives is the Mkts climb a wall of worry saying too.

          3. Yes I leave a closing ticket open sometimes to pick an exit and at least there you can see yourself getting stuck on a spike as it happens 🙂

  38. I wondered what you thought about that double bottom on the weekly………..I think 700 is very achievable maybe even 20 or 30 more…..be nice could pull Ftse up to 6220 -6230 in my eyes……think I’ll try some new bait on my hook…….did you see my definition of t.m.f.p. Too much fffffffffin profit……..one day we will get there….just got to keep plugging away at the trading process and our mindset till we have it nailed…..Good Luck WSF….

    1. Thanks yes,I’m a bit behind schedule for this yrs targets,but the good thing about this is that,”One good trend pays for ’em all” 🙂

  40. Whens the best time to push up ftse with the least people getting aboard…….How about friday night when they are all in chill out mode……good game good game……probably tank now lol ;0))

  41. RSI is dropping on 3 min Dow…..Macd only just still green…….it’s goin to breakout this baby I’m pretty sure…..just when…..?

    1. If it doesnt break on the next green macd cycle its probably not goin to im thinking…….just give it abit longer…..

        1. Turned pretty poor really……always next week if it continues to dissappoint mind you it’s not over till the fat lady sings :0)

          2. I just found the sang lucci channel on You Tube,worth a look,some of the interviews and so on,SLTV.

  42. Out at exactly break even……no loss that’s the main thing…..have a great weekend WSF………catch you next week…….all the best mate.

  43. Oh god. I just exploded. Maybe I can’t control my temperament. I was about to close out my most disciplined sensible week ever. Then I started chasing what was only 50 quid down (been trying to stick at min stake all week – 2pp and averaged 78/day so was quite happy). Having consistently bet against a downtrend I ended up suddenly raising the stakes.. 10, 20, 25, 50, 100. This resulted in the loss gaining a few zeros as you might imagine. Looking at it now, I’m not even sure how I could have traded it from about 16:30 onwards, and as some more sane person pointed out earlier, better to stay out if you can’t get a handle on it. Resulted in a loss of 1500, which was actually 3k until 15 points came in at the close. The monetary loss isn’t great, but I’m so bloody annoyed at myself. My only excuse is only having 4hrs sleep last night, but that’s not a great excuse as I should have just stayed out.
    Ok, cathartic msg written.. Perhaps it will help someone else avoid the same mistake in the future (maybe me).
    …and breathe.

    Hope you all fared better, off to beat myself with a birch stick..:)

    1. Hey noodles…..don’t beat yourself up over it…..I think most of us have traded way to much size and got burnt…..I certainly have…..it’s when you have a succesful period making a small but consistant profit you start thinking if I traded 10x larger I could make all that money……that’s when you get burnt…..it’s very hard to not get overconfident with a string of winners but that’s the time to either stop for the day or trade smaller……not bigger size……..Check out Rande howell a trading psychologist on you tube….and remember Einstein….e = mc2 emotions = money in account x contracts in the market……if you can trade without fear it’s a massive advantage…..All the best mate have a great weekend….catch you next week……..oh and …….you don’t learn by having a good time……you learn by failing a bit ……….(thanks QB)…….that’s a personal thanks to someone who showed it me…..goodnight……

      1. Thanks Anstel, appreciate the sympathy and the advice. It’s strengthened my resolve in many ways and at least got me doing a bunch of retrospective analysis of what went wrong. The initial jump in stake was where the problem started, after that most loss was caused by having too tight a stop because my size was so large == emotions == fear. Tight stops at a volatile point of the day are not really going to help, so as you say, I should have been reducing stake if anything.
        The initial raise in stake was down to not accepting a small daily loss as a valid outcome, when in fact being down 1 day in 5 is fine presuming risk is managed. Off to watch the psychology video you mentioned. I probably need to watch or read something like this every morning to keep it fresh in my mind (I’d already read Trading in the Zone, but it obviously drifted from my mind!).

        Thanks again, see you Monday.

        1. Tough one there, inoodle, we’ve all done it. Try to keep it to just the once.
          So, yet another Bull Monday would turn into Breakout Monday maybe….followed by Fail Tuesday? Or the moon?
          Should be interesting anyway.

          1. I’m still here, no hols, bl**dy kids 🙁

            Logic would say a typical Bull Monday would take us for a run at new highs….I think I’ll pick some up pre market ~200 with a 20 pt stop and a 6245 target.
            Whether it will sustain is another matter, but I can see an attempt.

            LOL, after continually saying don’t fomo anticipate breaks out of the range, I go and do exactly that 🙂
            Deserve to lose money really, but…..

          2. Thanks tmfp, feeling better after after a bit of rest:)
            I might not give up the day job just yet though lol.
            This fed meeting is intriguing.

    1. What do we do with a hot news flash?……we.stash that flash right in the trash……you get a whipping I get a saw honey :0)

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