Asia weak NFP misses estimates 6191 6225 resistance 6123 support

Support 6123 6120 6037 6022
Resistance 6185 6191 6224 6228 6238
Good morning I hope you had a good weekend. The bulls fought back on Friday from that 6660 area that we had as support – I had put it as risky long on the trade plan but it turned out to be fairly solid. NFP news was disappointing compared to estimates but the markets didn’t seem to mind – low rates for longer and some chance of further stimulus measures. We now look like we might hit the 6191 level today which is the top of the 10 day Bianca, and possible the 25ema on the daily at 6225.

US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
China’s shares were headed for the biggest two-day loss since February and industrial metals declined after disappointing trade data from the nation. Crude oil rallied for a fourth day as wildfires curbed output in Canada, while a pullback in the yen helped revive Japanese shares.

The Shanghai Composite Index slid to an eight-week low, while Japan’s Topix index climbed for the first time in two weeks. The yen fell to this month’s low as prospects for a U.S. interest-rate increase supported the dollar. Copper fell to its lowest in almost a month after imports into China, the world’s top base metals consumer, slipped last month from a record. Oil climbed as high as $45.94 a barrel in New York and gold retreated, after gaining Friday following the release of weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs figures. Japan’s 20-year bond yield fell to a fresh record.

Chinese trade figures released over the weekend showed exports fell 1.8 percent in dollar terms in April and imports dropped for the 18th month in a row, adding to evidence that global economic growth remains subdued. Lackluster corporate earnings are also doing little to boost investor sentiment and several Federal Reserve officials have warned over the past week that U.S. interest rates are headed higher, possibly in June.

“The yen has more scope for losses against the dollar if Fed officials keep their hawkish tone,” Masafumi Yamamoto, chief currency strategist in Tokyo at Mizuho Securities Co., wrote in a note to clients.

Euro-area finance ministers and International Monetary Fund officials will meet Monday to decide whether Greece’s government has done enough belt-tightening to gain another aid disbursement. Germany has factory orders data due for release and companies including Enel SpA and Tyson Foods Inc. will report earnings.

Stocks
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.1 percent as of 1:31 p.m. Tokyo time. The Shanghai Composite Index sank 2.2 percent, after sliding 2.8 percent on Friday.

“China’s trade import data in terms of dollars were worse than expected,” said Sam Chi Yung, senior strategist at South China Financial Holdings Ltd. in Hong Kong. “The service economy is becoming important but domestic demand is getting worse. This is generating negative signals for China’s economy and putting pressure on A shares.”

Japan’s Topix rallied 0.7 percent, after dropping 3.2 percent last week. Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd. jumped as much as 9.4 percent in Tokyo after reporting earnings. Benchmarks in Indonesia, South Korea and Thailand fell as trading resumed for the first time since Wednesday. Philippine markets are shut for a presidential election.

Futures on the S&P 500 Index rose 0.1 percent, while contracts on the U.K.’s FTSE 100 Index gained 0.6 percent.

Currencies
The yen weakened 0.2 percent versus the greenback, leaving it up 12 percent for the year. Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso said Monday that sudden exchange-rate moves aren’t desirable and the government has the means to intervene.

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, which tracks the greenback against 10 major peers, was little changed following its biggest weekly jump since November. The greenback’s reaction to Friday’s U.S. jobs report was muted by comments from Fed Bank of New York President William Dudley, who said in a New York Times interview that it remained a “reasonable expectation” the central bank would raise interest rates two times this year.

The probability of the U.S. central bank hiking borrowing costs at its meeting next month fell to 8 percent after the jobs data, from 12 percent a week earlier, Fed Funds futures show.

The South Korean won sank 0.7 percent from Wednesday’s close, while Indonesia’s rupiah slipped 0.3 percent.
“The dollar is likely to trend higher against emerging-market currencies, particularly if we have more hawkish comments from Fed top officials,” said Qi Gao, a currency strategist at Scotiabank in Hong Kong.

Commodities
Crude oil climbed 1.8 percent to $45.44 a barrel in New York as expanding wildfires in Canada knocked out about 1 million barrels a day of output. Also registering on oil traders’ radar is the replacement of Saudi Arabian Oil Minister Ali Al-Naimi with a close ally of the deputy crown prince. Al-Naimi will be succeeded by Saudi Arabian Oil Co. Chairman Khalid Al-Falih, who has backed the nation’s policy of prioritizing market share over prices and insisted any freeze on production must involve Iran.

Copper, nickel and zinc all dropped by more than 1.5 percent in London. Gold retreated 0.3 percent to about $1,285 an ounce in the spot market, having gained 0.9 percent on Friday after the U.S. payrolls data. Platinum and palladium declined at least 0.8 percent.

Soybeans in Chicago climbed as much as 0.9 percent. China’s imports increased to 7.07 million tons in April from 6.1 million tons in March, the nation’s trade data show.

Bonds
The yield on U.S. Treasuries due in a decade was little changed at 1.78 percent, after climbing three basis points on Friday as a report showed American employers took on fewer workers in April than economists forecast. New York Fed President William Dudley it’s reasonable to expect two moves this year, in an interview with the New York Times published on its website on May 6 following the release of the payrolls figures. Bill Gross, the former manager of the biggest bond fund, said policy makers may act at their next meeting in June.

Japan’s 20-year bond yield fell to an unprecedented 0.22 percent. [Bloomberg]

FTSE 100 Outlook and Prediction

FTSE 100 Prediction
FTSE 100 Prediction

I am watching two main resistance areas now where I think this little bull run we are seeing since Friday might falter. The first one is 6191 where we have the top of the 10 day Bianca and the second is the 25ema on the daily at 6225 (and also R2 today). I think if we see 6225 then that is a good shorting spot. If the bulls break this then 6366 is possible, where we have the top of the 20 day Bianca, though I think its unlikely. Support wise we have the pivot at 6123 as the first main area of support, and while the bulls are currently in control a level that is worth a long off. We also have the 30min coral around this area, which has gone green showing a bullish trend. Below this the 2 hour chart has support at 6078. So, a few levels to watch today really, and with no major news scheduled then I expect we will see the both the pivot and 6191 today.

111 Comments

  1. Morning ! I had short this morning @ 70 around 2 AM.. out @ 35.. Now gone long @ 33@ ! also depends on how I feel ! Good luck guys!

    1. Oh here you are….posted results on Fridays board….out of All for +22.4pts……..+23.3pts ….and +25.5pts…. Out between 60 and 61.8……thanks to chippy I had take the money in my head and leave some for the other guy…..maybe it’s finally sinking in….good start to my week….cup of tea and sit on hands now to see where the dust settles GL all.

          1. It does look very bullish but I’m going to do some jobs around the place …..I’m not going to get sucked into all the euphoria…….that’s sometimes the time the market bites back….for me it’s time to sit up my tree like a big cat and watch for the next opportunity.

  3. Morning all, bit late dropping by. I think BTD for a bit now. Managed to pick some up at 50 on the open and had a limit at 30 but didn’t get filled.
    Anstel, good work buddy! If you just keep nicking it then you’ll put a few quid in your pocket. Keep it up and don’t forget to chop the wrong ‘uns! Good luck

  5. Should we take both your FTSE and Dax trades? The FTSE hasn’t performed as well these last two months whereas Dax has held up.

    1. Members and I usually set up FTSE, Dax, S&P and gold trades each day. I tend to just post the FTSE info on the public site though

  6. If we can break the 200 on the hourly Dow coming into Dow open it looks good to me.

    1. Thanks Nick So much clear when you explain!! 🙂 could we be heading to 6125 Level if it goes below Morning Low?

  8. Hello chaps, the lure of the sunshine got the better of me, so had a 600 mile motorbike weekend, camp fires, Jack Daniels and hooligan behaviour, 14 hours sleep and just surfaced to everything looking a bit brighter for the bulls after a dismal performance last week.
    Looking like the range has been established 6130/80 for now, the tone for the week will probably hinge on whether the DOW can keep its act together and get somewhere near 18k.
    A fail around 17800 would mean a visit to 17550 and might start to look like a H&S completing.
    Very impressive figures btw anstel, nice one. 🙂

    If this little bit of late morning weakness gets back to the low 30’s, probably be worth longing it for the opening and maybe a go at 17900 which would probably fail, but it is Bull Monday.
    It is Monday, isn’t it? 😉

      1. I certainly did 🙂
        Although, just now looking back at the action, I think even I would have been looking for a long around 6060, but would probably have come out too early as usual. Certainly my first reaction today was to short it around 6160 as the bounce of 100 pts is probably vulnerable to a pull back.
        6130’s pretty important for the bulls to hold for me.
        Recent performance says beware getting too euphoric on Bull Mondays, especially after a short covering DOW Friday.

    2. Hi tmfp glad you had a good time over weekend…thanks for the kind words…I think I may have identified an area that has been causing me problems….still working on it….Good Luck as always…..

      1. One thing you might find beneficial is having a closer look at fib retracement levels.
        You’re a bull and that’s totally fine (we need someone to sell this worthless cr*p to *joking*), but I’ve noticed your entries on pullbacks tend to be a little early.

        1. Thanks tmfp….I was just thinking the same thing….I always get in too early because of fomo….WSF showed me where they were on advantage but to be totally honest I havent worked out how to overlay them on the chart… I need to have a proper look at how to do it…..

  10. Impatient…..instead of waiting for 30 where my limit is from this morning, just paid 33.

    2. 3 points won’t kill you mate, I’m in for a bit at 34, maybe some more on a dip.
      16 pt stop.

      1. Yep, as you say, 3 points wont do any harm….oops, here is the dip!
        I’m on a bit of a chippy mission at the moment so (hopefully) by the time it has all averaged out it wont make any difference! Nice to have you back mate.

      2. and a bit more at 24, only small, this going long after a heavy weekend is not natural.

    1. expected dow at open to take Ftse beyond 200 but never mind stop moved to b/e if goes any lower will be looking to reenter around 00-15 range !! Bulls for me !

    2. Answer if you wish But would like to ask , Looking at friday candle is this what Hammer (Bullish) Looks like ?

      2. A hammer candle looks like a hammer, the long tail is the handle and the small open/close bit is the head. A bullish candle has the head at the top, usually green, denoting there was a sell off which was agressively bought = probably the lows for the time being.

      1. I don’t think they let you take your CBT on it………..maybe they don’t consider it suitable for inexperienced riders……get a set of knoblies on it I reckon it would make a cracking enduro bike :0)

  14. My little scalp concluded 10008.5 av to 10045 full stake. I didn’t even see the win yet.

      1. Didn’t expect it to drop like a brick now, I thought it had a potential to go to 10125?

  15. out of balance for +11 that’ll do me although probably get to high 40’s when the DOW may take a breather around 17800

      1. I thought the long was brewing. But it didn’t feel right for me, the impulse on Dax didn’t confirm. Ema are also flat. But I have to go now, working tonight. GL to you.

  17. Now the question for me is how it will bounce now short term oversold.
    Looks like Bull Monday might have been a bit of a con unless 750 and 130 can be recovered quickly.
    6130 now resistance?

          2. with that out @ 20 ..been BTD’ing whole day not been able to catch good one !! every day is new day I guess

      1. haha !! Look at my trade i m only trading in small units ! trading with patience and in small time frame keeps my mind clear from previous exp!! though been strict on stops 🙂

    1. out for +6, getting to that time of the day, not a lot of buying about, might bounce off 6100, but the teens are only holding while DOW over 700..
      If DOW clears 720 very short term may knock on to us, but there’ll be a few out of money longs about into the close.

        2. Thatw ould imply the DOW getting through 17800 and 17900 and probably having a go at 18000.
          Bit of an ask for a market thats been putting in lower highs and lows for over two weeks and has trouble getting through 17720 at the mo.
          For today I think there might be a bit more downside into the close so short at 22 6 pt stop.

  20. So, good ish bounce off 10, no chance of getting a fill at 00!
    I’ve got a confession…..if the Dow remains small down (-20 odd) the full day binary quarter of an hour before the close is quite good fun! The other day it got down to the mid teens with10 mins to go and the cash was only down 10. Simply a 5:1 bet when the chance was probably better than evens. I know, I know, it is like crack cocaine but equally it does remain a good bet!

      1. Don’t knock it until you’ve tried it…….I’m talking about the cardboard blanket not the crack, but the same could apply!

  22. WSF …tmfp mentioned something earlier ive been meaning to get clear……it’s Fibonacci retracement….I’ve pulled up the drawing toolbar and clicked on retracement….Do I put the 100% line on the top of the current range and the 0% line on the low of the current range?

    1. A 100% retracement is going back to the start of the last move on the chart/timeframe you are looking at,so the last move was 100 to 0 with 0 being where the direction changed and it moved back on itself.

        1. When you first told me about how to set it up I was having computer problems…..I didn’t seem to be able to get it working….the computer is running better now and it’s working ok so I’ve got the fibs up now…

      2. eg 60 min from Friday afternoon started around 17550 (100) and went to around 17790 (0) with this Support coming in between 38.2% and 50%.

        1. Todays Dow action actually pushed back to the Friday Open,so I think if it closes above Fri Close at 740 we have shown some support.

          1. I’ve been having some trouble with the site today,lots of freezing.
            I think this is a bit of a balance between people worried about a Bull trap and people worried about a Bear trap.

        2. What I’ve done is this….10 min Ftse chart…..high 6180 low about 6109 ish…..put the 100% at 6180 …the 0% at 6109. ….it’s just above the 23.6 retracement…..is that right….am I on the right track?thanks.

  23. And just for fun I’d like to ask another technical question………is it goin up yet:0)

    1. I reckon there is a fairly good chance it will move a lot tomorrow,because I cant watch it for most of the day.

    2. I’d like to see the Dax put 10k behind it for a bit,didnt like the way it came down through it earlier,but mid 90’s now.

      1. I’ve always got a Dax chart up WSF i think we are on the verge of some rises.

    1. I bet it jumps at 4pt spread anyone would think someone doesn’t want anyone to make any money…..God forbid…

      2. Yes,oh well,see you tomorrow afternoon/evening,hopefully with the same trades open showing a lot of blue 🙂 Have a good evening.

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