Asia recovered earlier losses 6280 resistance Bears appearing?

Support 6256 6249 6247 6175 6173
Resistance 6273 6285 6286 6311 6350
Good morning. Nice short yesterday from 6323 which was pretty much the high, nice when it just tags the order rather than just missing as is sometimes the case! The FTSE 100 has dropped off a bit since then, and the bears will need to break 6247 this morning to continue the downward slide. Global stocks are still trading near their highest levels of 2016, having rallied since February as commodities recovered from a quarter-century low to enter into a bull market this week. Hillary Clinton is one step closer to the POTUS job now too, having secured the Democratic nomination.

US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg

  • Chinese imports declined less than economists forecast in May
  • Shanghai, Hong Kong shares pare losses along with Aussie

Asian stocks recovered from earlier losses and South Korea’s won extended gains as Chinese trade data showed imports into the world’s biggest trading nation fell by less than economists forecast. Crude oil traded above $50 a barrel.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed to a six-week high as shares in Shanghai and Hong Kong pared losses. Japan’s Topix swung to a gain as the yen gave up most of its earlier advance. Futures on the S&P 500 were little changed after the benchmark closed within 1 percent of its all-time high. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell to a one-month low as the won strengthened versus all 31 major peers. Oil added to gains from the last session, when it closed at the highest since July 2015 in New York. Japan’s 20-year bond yield sank to a record low.

The China data suggests “things have stabilized, which is better than what it was a few months ago, but stabilization does not mean bull market,” said Khiem Do, the Hong Kong-based head of multi-asset strategy at Baring Asset Management. “Most people are still a little bit careful and cautious.”

Global stocks are trading near their highest levels of 2016, having rallied since February as commodities recovered from a quarter-century low to enter into a bull market this week. Signs of stability in China’s economy are supporting investor sentiment after the World Bank cut its 2016 global growth forecast on Tuesday to 2.4 percent from 2.9 percent. Mixed economic reports in the U.S. curbed speculation in the past week that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in the coming quarter.

China’s exports declined 4.1 percent from a year earlier in dollar terms last month and imports fell 0.4 percent, the least since 2014, data showed Wednesday ahead of a two-day holiday in the nation. South Africa is due to report first-quarter economic growth and the U.K. will release details of its industrial output in April. The U.S. will report on job openings and Brazil’s central bank is expected to leave its benchmark interest rate at a nine-year high following a policy meeting.

Stocks
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.2 percent as of 1:18 p.m. Tokyo time, having been 0.1 percent lower before the Chinese trade figures were released. Japan’s Topix rose 0.4 percent, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index fell 0.3 percent and the Shanghai Composite Index slipped 0.4 percent. Taiwan’s Taiex was headed for its highest close since March.

Kumho Tire Co. jumped as much as 14 percent in Seoul after Korea Economic Daily reported that Germany’s Continental AG was planning to acquire a 42 percent stake.

Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.1 percent as the yen strengthened 0.2 percent. South Korea’s won gained 0.6 percent versus the greenback, after a 1.8 percent surge on Tuesday that marked its biggest gain in six years. Australia’s dollar weakened 0.1 percent, retreating from a one-month high. Taiwan’s dollar gained 0.4 percent, headed for its highest close since August 2015.

The British pound rose 0.1 percent, after strengthening 0.7 percent on Tuesday. One-month implied volatility in the currency — a gauge of projected swings in the exchange rate — doubled in the past two weeks to a seven-year high. Danske Bank A/S is telling clients to hedge against currency losses that will affect more markets than just the pound as Britain’s June 23 referendum on its European Union membership draws closer.

Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude oil rose 0.4 percent to $50.55 per barrel. U.S. crude stockpiles are estimated to have fallen for a third week, trimming a glut. Crude has surged about 90 percent from a 12-year low in February amid unexpected disruptions and a continuous slide in U.S. output, which is under pressure from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries’ policy of pumping without limits.
Nickel rose 0.9 percent in London and copper gained 0.4 percent as zinc extended Tuesday’s retreat from a 10-month high. Gold climbed 0.3 percent.

Bonds
Japan’s 20-year bonds advanced, pushing their yield as low as 0.205 percent. South Korea’s three-year bond yield dropped to a record 1.39 percent, below the central bank’s benchmark interest rate of 1.50 percent. The Bank of Korea is due to review interest rates on Thursday and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. stands alone in forecasting a rate cut in a Bloomberg survey of 18 economists at financial institutions.1MDB Energy Ltd.’s dollar bonds due May 2022 fell by the most in four weeks, boosting their yield by six basis points to 5.33 percent, after Moody’s Investors Service withdrewits rating on the notes, citing “its own business reasons.” Malaysia’s troubled state investment company 1Malaysia Development Bhd. said Wednesday its liquidity position is “strong.” [Bloomberg]

FTSE 100 Outlook and Prediction

FTSE 100 Prediction
FTSE 100 Prediction

For today I think we might see some continued bearishness. However, we have a 9.7 dividend this afternoon which will more than likely see the bulls appear late afternoon before the bell as the divi hunters buy in for the divi. Its worth going long (or even opening a one touch binary) about half 3, 4pm and closing out just before the bell. The 2 hour chart has swung to a bearish stance on the moving averages that I use, with resistance at 6274, however it does also have support at 6247 from the coral, so a fairly tight range and it will be interesting to see which one breaks. We have dropped off the 10 day Bianca channel yesterday from 6323, and the top of that for today is 6311 so any second test of that is worth a short. Looking at the 30min chart, there is resistance at 6284 from the coral and the daily pivot (thought the live charts one is slightly higher at 6293), but I feel that if we get a rise to these levels then shorting here is worth a go. The 10 day Raff channel is heading downward at the moment so a slight bias for the bears. I have plotted an initial dip down to the 6250 area, however, the 30min 200ema is at 6256 for support as well, so the bulls might be keen to defend this area and be quick out the blocks, as the bears have had it their way since 6323 yesterday. Basically I am shorting the rallies, apart from a long near the end of the day for the dividend.

106 Comments

  1. Morning chaps, another lovely day to be sat in the kitchen.
    Trading off 1min 6 rsi 75/25 with 6 pt stop/b-e for 8 either way since the opening flurry, bored already, but 3 in the bank so far, so at least getting paid.
    Make that 4 and short at 82.

    1. Short at 80. I think I counted around 10 goes at 18000 last night for the Dow so doesn’t look like that is going to happen soon. That said, I still think the world and his wife is short so I don’t think it has got far to fall back.

      1. Morning chippy, yeah that 18000….
        I don’t see the short bias that you do, just a thin market devoid of sellers.
        I’m rather keen on that “bunny” market description, hopping up and down randomly.
        Fundamentals are so far out of kilter because Central Banks (used bicycle buying starts tomorrow) that quiet random bewilderment is the pattern I see for the Summer.

        Took another +6 but no long. Rent paid. Bored.

        1. Switched to 8 period and short at 82 6 pt stop, now on +3=b/e stop.
          Milk it, no need for gesture trading.

          1. I think I’m in a 1 day period!
            Nope, I don’t see a massive short bias but I think range-ish is something like 6230-6300, therefore if I’m going to have a bet then downside should only be 20 points if you see what I mean.
            It is dangerous markets for me when it is like this as I can tend to get too agressive and begin to assume that I’m as big as the market! For that reason I’m really trying to only play with tiny tiny bits and see if I can nick something here and there. Simply, it’ll break and the likelihood is that I’ll be on the wrong side!
            Good luck sunshine!

  2. Morning all,
    Great level calling again Nick
    Let’s hope the volume is better than yesterday, it was wrist cuttingly slow…
    GL today

  4. Morning chaps,well it’s a game of patience I think …I’m still running those longs from the early eighties from yday after taking some heat overnight…expecting a break of 18000 Dow at some point….

      1. Hi anstel, how long you keeping your longs going? do you see ftse going back to 6260?

        1. Hi cfdf1212…I think the Dow is going north of 18000 so I’m expecting Ftse north of 6300……also it’s a decent dividend to encourage buyers….6260 is not out of the realms of possibility but my money is on a push higher and then approaching brexit Im thinking it will sell off strongly……not based on anything concrete just my opinion so treat it with a pinch of salt but that’s how I’m thinking…..good luck mate…..

      2. No problem Smokin…my 10.1 differs slightly from Nicks 9.7…..it depends on the share price at the time it’s calculated I think….good luck tday mate….

    2. Hahahaha for some reason with you Anstel I immediately thought you’d been holding the longs since the year 1982… you do like to marry the occasional trade, but that would be a serious commitment… Though profitable lol

      1. I do like to marry stuff sometimes your right but I’m quite liking having a few short term affairs recently……nothing longer than 5 days…..I’m a right tart at the moment ……:0)

        1. Often the way isn’t it. You don’t know somethings going to be rubbish till you do it!

          1. I think we need a big shout out of thanks to Tiberius Nick……he mentioned TSOhost and we are all grateful to have the site working well….

  6. Guys need your advise, my order triggered this morning 6263 target 6258, as you can see this is heading to 6300 or 6310, just wondering if I should close this in loss or leave it to run?

      1. If you hedge it with a long and it goes North you have a chance to recover your 17 pts when you close your long at a high and it’s overbought….it could then pullback your 17pts…..better shut up or I will have tmfp shouting at me…:0)

    2. Just pointing out the obvious mate, if your target was +5 wtf are you doing without a similar sized (or ideally smaller) stop in place?
      The idea that it’s good trading to run losses far in excess of profits looked for is highly dangerous. In this sideways market people can get away with it, but it’s a recipe for disaster and a v v v bad habit to get into.

      To answer your question, I would cut it now and thrash yourself with the minus 22 point cat of nine tails so you don’t do it again. Short term pain, long term gain.

  7. I covered my short at 80 for b/e a while ago. It could do anything and it seems pointless gambling on “flies running up a wall”.
    That said am still running some of my difference shorts!

  8. I was just wondering if anyone can help me?…..Is there a way to remove the address bar from the top of the screen so I can maximise my screen space….?

      1. Thanks tmfp….I tried F11 and it decreases brightness….then I tried F12 and it increases the brightness back to where it was……address bar hasn’t moved at all……I will have a look on net and see what I can learn about it…..

        1. Anstel, just go to menu bar then views then select hide toolbar from fullscreen it’s same for windows and Mac!

          1. Yes thanks Rick,I have hidden the toolbar by right clicking and hitting properties and then hide the toolbar……the toolbar was at the bottom I think and now that’s gone…..but the address bar I think it’s called is at the top and I havnt found a way of getting rid of that one yet…..thanks though….

  10. Anyone has any ideas, where this FTSE heading?
    I have placed a short order at 6300 S8 for now though.
    I have managed to get some nice points on DAX from 10220 was holding this for like 4hrs or something and now short at 63 S20

    2. Purely random Rick, depends on whether the Yanks can break 18000 later I guess.
      This time of day I’d be looking for a little weakness on the FTSE for an hour, no real need to go into the DOW on daily highs.
      Last trade I did was 45 minutes ago 🙁
      And short while I type at 92, may be ten in it.

      2. all right then, +6 again. I’ll resell in the 90’s, contingent on staying awake.

      3. thanks tmfp, let’s wait and see if DOW breaks 18000 later today.
        Struggling to trade today, it’s slow and boring.
        I have only placed 3 trades so far today!

    1. Out of five longs at 94 on 1 and 93.5 on 4 for +7….+6.7……+6.9….and on the over nighters +12.5 and +13……less overnight finance….

  12. dont know what happend but the site is loading fast again:)
    woot, woot.

    Wish i could say the same about my trading, ah well, will get there.

  13. Short at 94, again only small but looking for a bit of weakness. Probably could leave it there until 4.00pm and get out break even, it is that scintillating!

  14. Just clicked on the IG signal thing, all 3 signals are saying buy the Dow, just shorted more FTSE at 90.

  17. Aren’t there some US oil figures due at 15.30?
    That was pretty half hearted from the DOW to stagger over 18000. It doesn’t have much tech importance, but big numbers always matter.
    A little blast down would set up a divi long, but a bit early yet.
    The way the DOW’s dropping, I’d say the oil figures are not good and not a secret.
    Out at 85 and waiting.

    1. I bloody though that +8 was nice, should have waited couple of more mins.
      Nice one tmfp, did you short 6300 as well?

      2. Av 300, 97 and 303.
        I don’t even have a DAX chart up this time of day, irrelevant to me, just FTSE and DOW. It does completely its own thing after 15.00 I’ve found.

        1. a pure short punt coming up at 15.29 or 95 for these oil figures, 10 either way, then actively looking for an oversold dip to long.

          3. Should have longed it, a bit early I thought though.
            Not chasing this or shorting it atm.

        2. Yeah I know after 15:00 DAX is no good for FTSE it’s about Yankies.
          Now just waiting for a proper dip to buy but 85 has a good support for now!

          3. and 100 x 7 to finish off the day.
            If you can’t treat yourself at divi time, when can you, as my Gran always used to say?
            lol, catch you tmrw chaps!

  18. Hi all, just had a look at the one touch binary charts and having a play on the demo account. how the hell do you read them. The values on the right of the chart are they a percentage of the target or something else? Anyone more wiser?

    1. https://www.ig.com/uk/binaries-trading

      With a FTSE 100 UP binary you are being asked whether you think the FTSE 100 will be above (e.g.) 6444.89 at the close of the session.

      If you agree you would ‘buy’ this binary, if you disagree you would ‘sell’ this binary.

      The price you pay reflects the likelihood of the event happening as set by our trading desk based on the behaviour of the underlying market and the time remaining until expiry. Each binary is priced between 0 and 100; the closer you get to expiry, the closer the price will move to either 0 or 100.

      In this example the binary price is 86.2/89.5. Here, you would ‘buy’ at 89.5 or ‘sell’ at 86.2.

      However, binaries magnify very small movements in the underlying market. A sharp tick close to expiry could see the binary price move dramatically.

      For example, if the underlying market price was at 6458 just five minutes before the expiry of a FTSE 100—UP [>6444.89] binary, the price is likely to be close to 100 as the chance of it expiring above 6444.89 is quite high. However, if the FTSE suddenly kicks down to 6443 and the binary expires below 6444.89, the price will instantly settle at 0 – potentially a large swing.

  19. Thanks nick, I get the general gist of it, but will keep fiddling to get a bit more confidence with it. They jump around loads. If they hit 100 or 0 do they automatically close out.?

    1. They only go to 100 or 0 at the end Coombsy, in the meantime you can buy or sell them at market (as you probably know). When I played with them, I rarely let something close out, I traded them.
      Careful, they drive you nuts. 😉

      2. Thanks tmfp, it seems these companies come up with loads of ways to achieve the same goal. Not sure they add any value to me personally. I like many find normal spread trading hard enough without confusing matters even more. Lol.

    1. about the time you posted that, inoodle 🙂
      Any time around 16.00 usually, was a good dip at the right time rsi wise on both DOW and FTSE.

      1. Thanks mate… I nearly wrote that after I saw it rocket up lol! Still, got a couple of points out of it

  21. Well I’m very patient but enough is enough…..closed five Ftse longs at 6304……one I bought at 85.5 ….one at 92. ….one at 92.3…one at 92.5 and the last at 92.7…….points gained +18.5……+12……+11.7………….+11.5…..and +11.3…….. I’ve been sat here for bloody hours and now it’s jumped up to 6306 and it will probably go further…..still like my old mate chippy says…..take the blue and leave some for the other guy……goodnight chaps……..

  22. Hello night shift, DOW still can’t get its arse over 18000 then…. depending on Asia I think we may get a bit of a sell off tmrw, completely lost momentum for me.

    ?anstel, 6304? 6306? which planet is this?

    1. 18005 as the official close might be enough for people to see,17995 for the break of the night.On timeframes over 60mins it looks alright lol.

      1. Hi tmfp just come back in…..yeah I closed my longs at 6304 and it then went to 6306 maybe it hit 6308 looking quickly at this iPad chart…..I thought it could have gone to 6310 – 6315 with the help of an authentic Dow rally…..as it happened I pretty much nailed it….Risk off and looking forward to a good nights sleep……see you tomorrow…..FWIW I think you are right ,I think a sell off is around the corner as brexit approaches…goodnight mate…..

          1. Ah ok, IG never got bid past 98, I didn’t realise there was that amount of difference. Room for an arb.

            Yeah so here we are pre mkt at 75 this not so sunny morning. Could see a dip to 60, will be interesting to see how that gets handled should it materialise.
            6230 would be next.
            What will probably actually happen will be up to 80 down to 72 then a 5 point range for the rest of the day.
            🙁

  23. Morning…..WSF,looks like I’m having a day off?…..I can’t access Cityindex at all…..looks like the whole site is down to me. Is it working for you?

  24. Already trying to form a base, 10130 and 66. If it holds, another dull morning, if it breaks might have a bit of fun, but I guess it’s still BTD.

    1. It might still be BTD for a bit longer but I think it’s going to change to bear country in the not too distant.might have to take a dump…:0(

  25. There’s the 60 and a mini bounce, out of short and waiting to see how it handles this.
    Weakness seems to be DAX inspired, strange since today is the day that the ECB can basically start buying anything denominated in Euros, so this is a bit of a sell the news situation.

    Straight to 50, not good.
    I hear wedding bells….

    1. Oh you crack me up you know me so well…..I’m just writing the invitations now….:0)

    1. I think it’s in the not too distant future …..not sure it’s really weak ATM.

      1. Dumped one at 45…..it breaks my heart but it’s cheaper than hiring a wedding venue…..hey I actually dumped one….-23.5 points…..oh it feels great….never thought losing £94 would feel so good :0)…..still got the other one though from 73.6….. Well I’m in love with this one….for better or worse :0)

        1. Back long at 37…..I was pining for her so I went on blended knee and asked her to take me back for a second chance….hopeless romantic to the end….:0)

  27. I see Nick’s tweeting 44 as a target, but to get there the DAX will have to lose 10100 and if it does I think it will keep going for a while.

    1. 44 and a bit more…. Wonder how much is in this bounce or we heading down down down?

    1. Yeah, certainly is mate, I’d measure the strength of what’s to come by how it bounces, should really revisit 110 straight away if it has any life.

      Oops.

      A bit early to call a trend day but it’s quacking like one. I re shorted the break at 48, not covering that till 30 or b/e.

    1. Thanks tmfp…it’s a great tip you gave me….I work much better doing it on the fly rather than overlaying the fibs on charts…you have really helped me thanks…..

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