Asia rebounds Oil rallies FTSE should be bullish 6174 resistance 6085 support

Support 6100 6093 6078 6059 5966
Resistance 6120 6133 6145 6174 6195
Good morning. Was fairly bearish all day yesterday as expected, just a shame it didn’t quite manage to reach 6130 for the ideal short at the open. 6120 was all the bulls could manage before a drop over the course of the day to 6050. From there though we have had a sustained bounce and back above 6100 as I am writing this. Asia has moved higher in line with the oil price. I expect the FTSE to follow suit today as well and a test of the 6174 Bianca channel is possible.

US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Asian shares rebounded from a six-week low as oil rallied and the dollar retreated against higher-yielding currencies.

Banking and technology stocks drove gains in the MSCI Asia Pacific Index, which was recovering from its steepest back-to-back losses in more than a month. The Shanghai Composite Index was set to lost ground for the fifth week in a row, its longest losing streak since 2012.

U.S. and U.K. equity index futures advanced as U.S. crude rose to a seven-month high and copper rebounded from levels last seen in February. New Zealand’s dollar and South Korea’s won led gains against the greenback, which strengthened this week against all but one of its 16 major counterparts.

Some $900 billion was wiped of the value of global shares over the last three days as prospects for a June interest-rate increase in the U.S. surged, spurred by comments from Federal Reserve officials, minutes of the last policy meeting and quickening inflation. Fed Funds futures put the odds of a move next month at 28 percent, up from 4 percent a week ago. Finance chiefs from the Group of Seven nations are meeting in Japan to discuss ways to tackle the worsening outlook for the global economy.

“Despite these intimations by the Fed, the market continues to remain skeptical over the likelihood of a rate hike in June or July,” Angus Nicholson, a market analyst in Melbourne at IG Ltd., said in an e-mail to clients. “Market pricing for a June or July rate hike was trimmed slightly and the dollar index pulled back.”

Tsai Ing-wen, Taiwan’s first female president, was sworn in Friday and will deliver her inaugural address as the island’s leader. U.S. data are forecast to show sales of previously owned homes increase in April for a second month, while current-account figures for the euro area are also scheduled. Malaysia has inflation figures coming and Thailand’s markets are closed for a holiday.

Stocks
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index added 0.4 percent as of 12:03 p.m. Tokyo time, rebounding from a six-week low. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index gained 1.2 percent, while benchmarks in China and Japan gained as much as 0.3 percent. The Shanghai Composite Index was still down 0.4 percent for the week, while the Topix has risen. Taiwan’s Taiex rose 0.5 percent.

Futures on the S&P 500 climbed 0.3 percent after the benchmark’s 0.4 percent drop on Thursday saw it erase gains for 2016. Contracts on the U.K.’s FTSE 100 Index rallied 0.9 percent.

Commodities
Crude oil rose 1.3 percent to $48.79 a barrel in New York, headed for a weekly advance of more than 5 percent. U.S.output slid for a 10th week to the lowest since September 2014 as gasoline use increased before a period of seasonal demand, the Energy Information Administration said Wednesday.

“We’ve got U.S. demand picking up and combining with bullish supply news filtering through the market,” said Jonathan Barratt, the chief investment officer at Ayers Alliance Securities in Sydney. “Unless there is a clear new fundamental reason to buy oil, I think $50 is a hard psychological level to break through.”

Copper rose 0.3 percent in London, trimming its weekly decline.

Currencies
The kiwi climbed 0.4 percent versus the dollar and the won advanced 0.2 percent. The yen was little changed, set for a weekly drop of 1.2 percent.

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, a gauge of the greenback against 10 major peers, held near its strongest level since March. The British pound was the only major currency to strengthen against the U.S. currency this week, buoyed by polls indicating that the campaign to keep the U.K. inside the European Union is extending its lead before a referendum next month.

New York Fed chief William Dudley touted on Thursday the prospect of policy tightening at one of the central bank’s next two meetings, while Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker said the case for hiking would likely be “very strong.” Minutes of the Fed’s last policy meeting were released on Wednesday and showed officials discussed raising interest rates as early as June. [Bloomberg]

FTSE 100 Outlook and Prediction

FTSE 100 Prediction
FTSE 100 Prediction

Well here we are for another Freaky Friday with what one would probably call slightly confused markets at the moment! For today we have support on the 30min at 6080, along with resistance on the 2hour at 6133 to start with. As such I think we might get an initial drop and then a rally, following the move that Australia did in their Friday session. We may only dip as far as the pivot though which is at 6093 so longs around this area are probably worth a go. However, should the 6078 area be broken then a revisit to 6050 and also lower is likely, most likely the 6020 area that was showing as potential support yesterday. The 10 day trends are levelling off a bit now with the 6050/6060 area holding a couple of times now, so we may be in for a bit of a short term bounce but I am watching the 2 hour chart to see if the bulls manage to break 6133 initially and if the Hull moving averages cross to bull with any strength today. So, areas of interest ar 6085 as support, 6133 and 6174 as resistance.

149 Comments

    1. All looking lalala again, but short term, bulls need to watch Nick’s resistance numbers, starting with 45.

      1. Sort of thinking about breaking 45, DAX needs to do new highs 9920+ to keep momentum going.

  3. Morning, out at 20, 30 and yep, you’ve guessed it, 40. I’ve kept a tiny bit for posterity with a stop at 20 which I’ll move manually as I can be bothered.
    So that is Tuesday paid for, shut up shop for the week now!

    1. Yeah I’ve nearly got the 48 point loss I took yday morning back…..going after the 61 points I lost next…

      1. Still holding the rest of my longs from that dividend…….under water but I can see the surface…..

        1. Out of my 41.5 long at 48.5 for plus 7points…..thanks for the analogy about the ant tmfp yday ….it was good.

          1. Yeah, a pretty pointless existence I suppose, being an ant, but better than chewing grass all day waiting for someone to slit your throat.

  4. Musing on the concept of revenge/regain trading, re the comment from the-person-I’m-not-going-to-nag…..
    Isn’t there some sort of trading guru vid about letting go of past losses, and just applying your system/playing the numbers as they are now, without any pre conceived targets based on “needing/wanting” to compensate for the past?

      1. If I can get out of prison with these remaining longs it’s mission accomplished for me for this week.otherwise I will have to go defensive for weekend…

      2. That comes from your system and the numbers on the screen, not from outside factors. Each trade has its own targets.
        If you needed £4k a month to live from trading, it doesn’t mean there will be £4k’s worth of opportunities.

        1. tmfp
          so how do you handle this?
          don’t you set targets ?
          how do you trade this eventuality?

          1. Hi JS.
            No trading targets per se, I scribble down my own version of Nick’s chart first thing and compare it to his, then go with the flow.
            But I’m essentially a reactive trader, not predictive. I can be long at 50 one minute and short at 50 half an hour later.
            I have no exterior set financial targets, but my points per week requirements to live is very small because I trade with a relatively large stake.
            I always tell my kids (not that they listen) that any sentence that starts with “I want” or “I need” should be treated with the utmost suspicion.
            Not that we should be motiveless of course, but focus on the process and the goal is attainable.

  5. Two and a half attempts on 9920 from the DAX, if it starts making lower lows (9880 for a kick off) then party looks like calling taxi time.

    1. Ok in this lull I just wanted to go back to your comment about mental fibs…..just reread it…….thats a really good tip..really good…I’m pretty good at mental maths and it’s a simple rule…..so now 27 and oversold RSI going to watch that see how it plays out……thanks again…..sometimes when I’m trying to learn something….and I can’t get it…..a more experienced person at the task involved just says something in a certain way and the penny drops….I think you have just don’t that for me.many thanks tmfp…..

      1. Especially because,as you have so rightly identified I have a habit of getting back in too early because of fomo…

      2. Glad to be of help, but these little tricks have a very finite life. Now for example, with a 3 point range for 20 minutes the 1 min RSI is like a woman with PMT (not to be trusted). Also the mental fib calc is now 10-58=34, but in this context say we fail at 50 now and go back to 34, its potential support is neutralised for me because there would be a top formation formed and pressing down.
        That earlier ~50% pullback measured to 28, with rsi tapping on the mildly oversold 30 line and micro double bottoming, in the context of the bull move, was a good entry for a small long with a close 6 pt stop and exit at previous high. Pretty textbook +15 with 3:1 R/R.

        1. I’m going to have to re read this a few times and get it firmly embedded…but I think you have taken the 58 as the high from 110 = 48/2 = 24 + 110 = 6134…… So you always take the latest high?

          1. Oh yes I remember you saying that about the RSI a few weeks back…..how it can be inaccurate when the market is relatively static for a period..I’m going to look up the way RSI is calculated again….but blimey the penny is dropping…..thanks.

          2. Yes, measure the full extent of the move, chop off obvious tails if you want, they mean nothing but an overrun.

            See now, that looks like the 50 fail I was talking about (and shorted 🙂 ), if we go straight to 34 now 1 min rsi will be oversold, profit taking time and a debatable double confirm long with a close stop.

  6. Morning guys !! I had long last evenng from 56 runnning was aiming for 6120-30 woke up to 100 pts up what did i do take it …yeeeeah!! Done for the week already .. lets have some one else have some money too !! Good weekend guys lol

    1. Hey that’s brilliant Sharma good luck and enjoy your weekend….very well done…

          4. So you’re long at 34.6, mixed signals, no way telling you what to do BUT DON’T MARRY IT, nothing wrong with b/e or small red and another look.
            Show me why a DAX or FTSE long is good right this minute (apart from the fact that it’s cheaper than a while ago).

          6. I just figured all that buying interest must still be around somewhere….sometimes you have to jump in ….no point in waiting…..he who dithers is dead :0)

          7. If you’re still long that 37.6 it is no longer a short term technical trade, it’s edging towards the box….

      2. Yeah free money time shorted 50 again, don’t know what that was all about to be fair.
        And out again at 36 🙂

  8. Morning all,I see yesterdays global Economic situation has resolved itself,thats nice 🙂

      1. Could be scare tactics to get people out though so it goes up without them……dunno?

  10. If I may add to anstel and JSft’s questions about targets – 2 things – Firstly with any trade I use the “2 back pocket” rule, left hand back pocket has enough to get me home, right hand has spending money. This rule comes from a misspent youth at the Dog/horse tracks! Secondly, I think I said this the other week, £100 per day, is £500 per week, is £2,000 per month, is £24,000 per year. You can multiply/divide to suit but if you forget the £24,000, forget the £2,000 and concentrate on the £100 per day you should be laughing.
    Final point – The red braces brigade are paid absolute fortunes and return 0-5% per annum at the moment. To make the £24,000 at 5% you’d need to have a fund of circa £500,000. Remember they are only doing what we are doing…..

    1. to both Chippy & tmfp
      yes the big boys fund requirements are large in respect to margins
      the question is if we as retail trades are using small margins / large leverage
      and daytrading and looking for small no. of points, this being the exact opposite how do you handle the stoploss in respect to the “guaranteed” small point targets

      1. Each trade itself should fit your risk parameters from a technically placed stoploss point of view.

          1. Nope, not difficult, stop loss is when you’ve spent enough of the right hand back pocket. Right hand back pocket has got to last you all evening, so early in the evening you’ve still got to pay for beer, food and gambling, later in the evening you’ve only got to get home and that is what is in the left hand pocket so everything left in right hand pocket can go on the 4 dog/23 horse/black.

          2. I see what you’re saying, I guess I’m not the best person to ask, if the truth be told I suppose I rely on the dreaded “feel” as much as anybody when it comes to exits, but a well placed, logically stopped entry is a good starting place.

          3. Hey tmfp …if you use that word feel again……I’m coming round the break your windows……lol…:0)…..I love it. …..News flash………tmfp feels the market too…..it’s not just me……

    2. Another really good bit of advice there chippy….the two back pocket rule…cheers…there are some really good nuggets of information on here today….just getting some armour plating fitted to my new shutters in case tmfp comes round with some heavy artillery :0)

  11. Well, it’s been real as they say, time for my Friday duties, catch you around DOW time.

  12. Hey WSF …..did you have a good time earlier this week back in the real world then?……it’s so true what you said about all the free time when your away from the screens…

    1. Yes,felt a bit odd though,being surrounded by people 🙂 Think I might go and get some refreshments for later now actually,whilst the dax decides on 9900 vs 9860,see you in 20 mins.

    1. Figured out the other day how I could play you tube tunes and post on here at the same time on iPad….pretty cool …trading to some good tunes at the moment….:0)

          1. Doesnt look like I missed much,there is an FOMC guy giving a speech at 14.00 about regulating the Insurance business,probably wont mean much though,unless he wants to change the way Berkshire Hathaway is taxed 🙂

      1. I’d like to see the Dax being abit more optomistic though…..it seems a bit nervous ………..

        1. Widowmaker if I have another day like Tuesday!
          By the WSF, I’m having my lunch so I do NOT want another one of those videos!

          2. Wasn’t it you who put up that video with the bloke(s) with the exercise thing. Acrually, don’t want to think about it, makes me come out in a rash. If it wasn’t you, I apologise and take my advice, don’t go looking for it!

          5. Yeah I liked that penalty kick one…..it just proves….with the best will in the world……anything can happen….

  16. After that cocky comment I’d be surprised you want me here!
    I’ve actually be doing some real work today, try and catch on the last couple of days when I’ve been concentrating a bit too much on my own account rather than the company’s!
    As mentioned earlier, despite tmfp’s assurance that I wont be able to resist, I’m thoroughly sitting on my hands. If you want a guess as to what is going to happen, here you go – Ftse will end up between 6130-6140 (at 9pm) and Down will end up 17530-17550. Good luck mate, TTB, TTB, TTB…..getting it?!

    1. Of course we all want you here chippy…..one for all…and all for one dartanian…..this trading lark is a bit solitary so we need to have a bit of fun along the way…TTB TTB TTB…….I’m guessing that translates to Take The Bunce….:0)

          1. Hey I love it……like the little stick on the neck trick to get his hand out of his pocket……..fancy coming out tonight WSF I fancy a trip to trumpton……well chippy is always telling me to take the money :0)

        2. I was slightly perturbed to find The Real Thing on my computer – that is not good for my street credibility. However, it did encourage me to watch one of my all time favourite you tube live music videos so alls well that ends well.
          Just so you know, especially tmfp, I still haven’t been tempted!

          1. Ha ha ha ……I couldn’t find anything else that remotely referred to feel of the market………

        1. Back in dreamland again anstel?
          It may well get there, I don’t know and neither do you.
          But what happens if it fails from here and closes at 120?
          Then opens monday at 6100….are you going to sit and look at your red longs for two days again?

          Ah, I forgot, you “think” its going up.

          1. Hey come on tmfp….the whole market is in dreamland….it’s a computer game remember….

          2. Also tmfp ….you think it’s going down…..but neither of us knows what it’s going to do…..do we?

          3. I don’t think anything, just walked in the door, saw previous highs, DAX still unable to break 9920, sold it with a 5 pt stop and made 10 pts while the kettle boiled.
            What’s so difficult about that?

          5. Lol, it’s got absolutely nothing to do with being bearish.
            It hasn’t broken mid 50’s all day, why now, when there’s about 1 tick every 3 seconds?
            The only time I would be wary of a short term break out up would be in the MHH on short covering at the end of the week.

  19. Out of the 33 long at 50 for +17 and out of the 137.6 long at 51 for +13.4 pts…plus I scalped another quick 1.5 pts…

    1. Would have held longer but it’s Friday and I’ve got more to unload hopefully…..

        2. Behave yourself then.
          Dump that stale long out of your profits whenever you feel capable and start next week afresh.
          Sitting waiting for the cavalry to turn up isn’t exactly in the play book, now is it?
          As it happens, I think the DOW may have a bit of upside left in it today, but Friday afternoons…..

          1. Sorry matey just larking about….you did tell me yesterday to move my feet..I felt like cr@p yday….a bug or something …I’ve had it a few days feeling a bit more agile today though so just having a bit of a go as I feel the trend is up at the moment….good luck matey..

          3. With the fed not ruling out an interest rate hike in June….and their hawkish comments I’m thinking we could go up a bit …..as the economy is improving….

          4. anstel, you are not an economist, that’s just blahblahblah.
            Exactly the same drivel could have been spouted yesterday: what did we do? Go down to a previously tested good buying area and people made 100pts overnight.
            Did you buy? No, cos you were full of longs from this same mid range do nothing area.
            Looks like we’re getting a bit of short book squaring now, ideal opportunity to…no, I won’t say it.

          5. All I know is if the fed are considering putting up rates in June well then to make it all look good I thought the market might end the week on a high note…..or they would look a bit daft really…..economist no not a clue…your right….

    1. Yesterday closed @ 435 and a close over that today wouldnt surprise me,but I dont think this will close over 570,going off the day chart more than anything else with that,been stopped long and short today already 🙁

  23. Cheers boys have a good weekend. I might not be about for a couple of days so good luck and FFSTTFBACTFR anstel. Work that one out!

    1. For —- sake take the ——- blue and …..no idea the next four…..:0) have a great weekend chippy….all the best mate…

        1. And cut the ___red, but control the risk is good. Have a good weekend, I’m just blowing the froth off one, mmmm, drink of the gods!

          1. Have a great weekend chippy…..all the best…..blow the froth off one for me ……….catch you next week…

          2. have a good weekend chippy,are you in the Menhir delivery business by any chance ? that sounded a bit Obelix’y

  24. Well took a +2.3pts and then I chopped my original longs -26.8 on one – 26.2 on another..-21.3 and -20……dumped the minus 20 at 47.8 and the rest around the 52 mark…shame it didn’t go up another 20 pts but I’m still up over 1k this week….could have been nearly 2 overall great week in reality and risk off……learnt some good stuff this week too……mental fibs…….remembered range bound RSI…and it’s instilled in me the importance of waiting longer for the pullback….tuse days rise I never recovered from but the dividend has helped……good luck lads….WSF and chippy and tmfp ….if you check in have a great weekend……cheers….

  25. Change German data beats expectation and the Dax is still getting sold off which started before the data, reckon the Dax will bounce back from here.

    2. Haha them days are gone for the Moment the thought of a quarter % rise in America and the financial system panics makes you wonder how leverage the financial system really is.

      1. A guy I know in the Sates is trying to withdraw $100k cash (legit) from his Wells Fargo account, waiting 10 days so far….

        1. hmmm that say something, always said the next world wide crash would be caused by the QE that started after the 2008 credit crunch, only difference is they fired all their ammo at the 2008, so the the next one will hit much harder and much deeper.
          Credit & Greed.

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