Asia flagging | BOE interest rate cut? | 6772 resistance | 1000 point rally from 5727

FTSE 1oo Support 6680 6676 6660 6643 6578 6513 6428
FTSE 100 Resistance 6713 6715 6724 6728 6772

Good morning. The UK has a new Prime Minister as Theresa May started forming her new line up last night. With May as PM, Hammond as Chancellor, I was expecting her to announce Clarkson as Foreign Secretary, but Boris got that job instead! Today we have the BoE Interest rate decision at 12pm and some are expecting a cut from the current 0.5%.

US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg

The rally that drove Asian stocks to levels last seen in April showed signs of flagging as investors await details of Japan’s stimulus plans and the corporate earnings season begins in earnest. The pound strengthened before a forecast cut in U.K. interest rates.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was set for its smallest gain this week, after rallies in U.S. and European shares stalled in the last session. The Topix index rose in Tokyo and the yen weakened amid speculation Japan could resort to so-called helicopter money, which involves the central bank directly funding government spending. Singapore Exchange Ltd. announced a temporary halt to all equities trading, without giving a reason. South Korea’s won rose following a monetary policy review, while crude oil rebounded from a two-month low.

Tokyo stocks have led the revival in Asian equities this week after Prime Minister Shinzo Abe promised a package of fiscal stimulus. Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga said Wednesday that helicopter money was not being considered, refuting a report in the Sankei newspaper that it was being looked at. U.S. shares are at an all-time high and investors will be looking to see whether better-than-expected economic data have helped arrest a slide in the earnings of America’s biggest companies.
“Investors remain very skittish and it won’t take much to rattle sentiment,” said James Audiss, a senior investment adviser at Shaw and Partners in Sydney, which manages about $7.4 billion. “We’re watching the yen-dollar rate really closely after the calls to do helicopter money in Japan got dialed back.”

South Korea’s central bank left interest rates unchanged at a record low, as forecast by all 20 economists in a Bloomberg survey, and lowered its projections for economic growth and inflation. Singapore’s expansion quickened to an annualized 0.8 percent in the second quarter, from 0.2 percent in the prior three months, data showed. Asian companies reporting earnings include Fast Retailing Co. and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., while JPMorgan Chase & Co. and BlackRock Inc. are among U.S. firms due to announce results.

Stocks

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index added 0.1 percent as of 1:34 p.m. in Tokyo, after advancing 3.6 percent over the last three sessions. The Topix gained 0.7 percent, headed for its highest close in a month. Singapore’s benchmark declined 0.1 percent before trading was suspended on Southeast Asia’s largest stock market.

Nintendo Co. jumped 16 percent to a five-year high, boosted by the success of its Pokemon Go mobile game. China Steel Corp. surged in Taipei by the most since October before the company announces its product prices for September. Hyundai Motor Co. fell as much as 3.3 percent in Seoul after workers in South Korea voted to strike over wages and working conditions.

Futures on the S&P 500 Index were little changed after the U.S. benchmark eked out another record close despite climbing less than 0.1 percent on Wednesday. A Citigroup Inc. gauge that tracks the degree to which the nation’s economic data are exceeding economists’ projections has climbed to the highest level since January 2015. Analysts predict second-quarter profits will drop 5.7 percent at S&P 500 firms, which would make it the fifth straight quarterly decline, the longest streak since 2009.

Currencies

The pound was 0.4 percent stronger versus the dollar, after earlier weakening as much as 0.3 percent. Thirty of 54 economists surveyed by Bloomberg predict the Bank of England will lower its benchmark interest rate on Thursday, with a majority of those seeing a 25 basis-point reduction to 0.25 percent.

South Korea’s won rose as much as 0.8 percent to a two-month high. The Bank of Korea lowered its economic growth forecast for this year to 2.7 percent, from an April projection of 2.8 percent, and trimmed its inflation estimate to 1.1 percent from 1.2 percent. The revisions were more modest than anticipated and suggest there’s no urgent need for borrowing costs to be cut, said Hong Sup Shin, head of fixed-income at Truston Asset Management in Seoul.The Japanese yen was down 0.2 percent, after earlier strengthening as much as 0.5 percent. Koichi Hamada, a key economic adviser to Abe, said Wednesday that boosting fiscal and monetary stimulus at the same time would be a good strategy, though helicopter money would be a “very risky gamble.”

Commodities

West Texas Intermediate crude oil was up 1.3 percent at $45.32 a barrel, after tumbling 4.4 percent on Wednesday as U.S. data showed an unexpected increase in gasoline inventories.

“Every time we have seen these big pullbacks, there is quite a lot of strong buying around that $44, $45 level,” said Angus Nicholson, a markets analyst in Melbourne at IG Ltd. “There are definitely active participants in the market who are very happy to be picking up oil at that price.”

Gold declined 0.4 percent to $1,337.23 an ounce, after advancing 0.7 percent in the last session. It was trading at about $1,260 before Britain’s June 23 vote to leave the European Union.

Bonds

Australian government bonds led gains in Asia, with yields on notes due in a decade dropping five basis points to 1.93 percent. Similar-maturity U.S. Treasuries yielded 1.47 percent, little changed following a decline of four basis points in the last session. [Bloomberg]

FTSE 100 Outlook and Prediction

FTSE 100 Prediction
FTSE 100 Prediction

There will be a lot of focus on the UK interest rate announcement at 12pm so likely to get a little choppy around then. If they do a rate cut then we might well break through that 6725 resistance area to test the top of the 10 day Bianca channel at 6772. The bulls will be keen to try and get back above 6700 again and hold it this time – despite their best efforts there was a bit of a dip last night at the bell – so maybe the rally is starting to falter a bit now (finally I hear some of you say) as the smart money often enters at the close. As such we probably wont push too far past 6700 today (famous last words). We have the pivot for support at 6680 so the bears will be keen to break below this level, and I am still favouring shorting the rallies today (same as yesterday). If we do hit 6727 today then that will be a 1000 point rally from the low on 24th June – pretty bonkers really. Anyway, I feel shorts around the 6715/6725/6770 (don’t think we will get as high as 6770 but you never know) are worth a go.

190 Comments

  1. Morning and thanks Nick ! Morning highest was 6744 though managed to pull back under monthly 6725 res.. currenty short from 35 target pivot @ 680 but i dun think its over !! but i am curious to see what will happen after the annoucement.. good luck everyone!!

  2. Hey Smokin….I’ve just had a look in my crystal ball……..I can see tmfp and he’s reading our posts :0)….. Metaphysics is a wonderful thing…..come on tmfp,chime in …I know your there…..you can’t hide from uncle anstel :0) lol!

  3. when though some of those resistance levels like they were not even there, a 1000 point rally show how the markets act when they get free money from the CB.

  4. Like Bruce Lee said…..you have to be shapeless,formless,be like water,and adapt to the situation….

    1. nice words to start with !! but too much heat can chNGE water state 🙂 thast whats been happening here !!

    1. I don’t know rich…..we can only deal with what’s in front of us know…..it took me a while to learn that…

        1. After thinking about your question rich my guess would be if rates stay the same the Ftse will drop to some extent….But it’s an election year…we had the 38k bullsh*t jobs number…for an excuse to keep rates low….there’s no way they can go up really anyway….too much debt….then a nice 288 k jobs number for a nice bullsh*t rise on the market…..they seem to want it up. But I don’t think a collapse is far away now…..

    1. We are all unsure when it comes to part with some losses. It’s hard to close because you feel down afterwards, but while you’re in it you feel down anyway. Is there anything to fight this DOWN feeling?

      1. Yeah ….Positive Mental Attitude…..and being grateful for our health and what we do have :0) life is a gift….money is a load of Boll@cks as is being proved by all the money printing….

  8. if rates remain the same we would see a sell off rally was built on Carney speech about stimulus. Problem is if he start cutting interest rates now he risk high inflation, cutting the rates only going to help the city boys. Theresa May should really have him sacked, his track record is not great and is answer to everything is more QE.

      1. all built on QE from central banks, once Carney destroy sterling Yellen & Draghi will need to weaken their currency market betting on a never ending QE

  10. Can anyone give me a clue why market is moving like mad between 7-8am whereas the open is 8am? By 8am the price was miles away on Dax. 7-8am spread is not that good and I’m always waiting for 8am for trading.
    I have no idea how I managed to get that rise from 10060-10094 but I did.

    1. So long as you got it that’s all that matters….nice to see you back Jack…missed you.

      1. Glad to be back. I started at the beginning of the week as the things stabilized here. Today’s win was just to recover my yesterday’s losses but it was great.

  11. Well best laid plans of mice and men and all that…..here’s what I’m goin to try..goin to run this hedge hopefully up for a few points…..if it drops drastically I will still be quids in though…then I expect the Ftse will drop approaching midday….if it does I’m goin to dump one on my short positions…I’ve got 75% of my loss back now from dumping those two positions earlier in the week so I can afford to take the hit on another to reduce risk in case Ftse goes into a low earth orbit:0) lol.Then if they drop rates and we get a spike I will attempt to replace short higher up……you can all have a good laugh if I make a B@lls of it:0)

    1. Slight change of plan….dumped a short position at 715…. Ouch :0( all part of the game though :0)

  12. Come on tmfp….say hello….you must be lurking somewhere….your not going to miss this interest rate announcement……:0) I’m going to polish my crystal ball a bit more and see what your up too….peekaboo :0)

    1. Well it’s up to you Sharma…..I’m running two from 21.5 and 22.8 but they are hedges….it’s dangerous but the pump has been serviced and it seems to be running at full pressure :0)

      1. Think I will jetterson them soon though….need the money to spend at the launderette to get my underwear clean :0)

  17. Ground control to Major Tom lol :0) far above the earth….planet earth is blue and there’s nothing I can do…..what a p*$$ take this is lol….you have gotta laugh…these people are running are banking system….God help us!

  18. I’m short from 6622 now…..can’t keep up with Mr Pump though….he’s on performance enhancing drugs today I reckon….

  22. Come on tmfp…..say hello to uncle anstel :0). Metaphysics might not pay the bills but it’s handy for keeping in touch with your old mates :0)

    1. He might be using his money earned on Brexit day to do the real gamble in casino with chilled beer and where it’s pure luck !! Here it is the same but only we are running out of it ! Shorted 42 ,10 either side

      1. You can’t catch me out @35 lol why do I make limit stop if I will be closing manually all the time .. Give me a rise to sell baby

  23. I’m lovin this today…..you can’t beat a good challenge….time for a cup of tea and a bag of popcorn before the main event :0) see you in time it takes to boil a kettle :0)

  24. Out of both recents shorts for about 15pts each and now both back hedged long….abit too early …oh bugger :0)

  25. Hey all,
    Jack, I think the rise this morning was from a mention of helicopter money in japan in an article – timing seemed to link up anyway.. and usdjpy went shooting up.
    15 mins till excitement! I’m long at the moment at 6723, but I have a feeling anything but a ‘more stimulating than expected’ outcome might result in a quick spike up then a fall…

    1. I agree with you old noodlypop :0) just having a fun time today so to keep the mood lite I created a nickname for you…hope that’s OK Inoodle?.. Yes I think a spike up and then if it can be timed right a sell off….good luck mate :0)

  26. Hello there everyone.

    Full time lurker here trying my hedging strategies out.

    Anstell!
    I see you are also hedging.
    How does your hedge go, if you don’t mind answering.

    Are you hedging the same market, and how do cap them off to make profit?

    I’m trying something similar, but at low pips, and not enough point gainage at any one time, or the wrong time can be pretty annoying..

    1. Hiya Mr Gold…..well I’m holding this short position and I’m hedgeing a max of 28.6 % long at present……Hedgeing can be good but you have to be prepared to jump ship fast if in this case it starts dropping fast or you get left with a headache…been there done that…..be very careful and don’t hesitate to close it even at a loss if it goes wrong…..The first cut is the cheapest. Good luck mate..

  27. I think they will postpone until August may be !! We need a reason to drop also just my intuition before every major event hours ago amrket start to move in the expected direction and then correct or continue but who knows big fish already know what outcome and just pull out at tight time !! Whatever it is I miss my good old days when market range were tight to do the basic ! Now 1000 pts rally in 15 days ! Who can beat that ..

    2. That was something today !! Done for the day with just last short @6705!! Will hold until bells rings ! I think it just matter of time before things get real and we have a drop ! Well it could be case of asx falling tonight followed by Ftse tomorrow ..lets see how it all pans out !! One lesson learnt fr life (trading context) never assume market can’t do something specially against you ! One just simply have to feel the tide and ride along ! See you tomorrow guys !!

    1. Dumped another at 63….. Don’t like give money back but I don’t like being in jail either…..hedge now 50% bias to short side…..

  34. this rally built on more than sand, or are the algos still in buy mode which means further rises

  35. I’m looking to sell the retrace at about 50% (which varies depending on which bit of the move you look at) but thinking between 6675 and 6690, though seems to be turning at 23.6% retrace….. very downward looking if that keeps going…

  36. Dumped a bit more short at 69.5…. Could do with it regaining its composure as I still have two longs and three shorts now….but my Net equity has increased nicely….just got to trade my way to freedom :0)

  37. Dumped another short at 66.5 now fully hedged…..hopefully get this longs off at break even and that’s pretty good damage limitation I reckon…:0)

  38. Increased long side of hedge by £5pp see if I can get a bit back on the long side….it seems pretty obvious the market is required to go up…hope so anyway because it makes no sense :0o

  39. Carney hints for rate cut in August, markets will buy into that bullSh!t and keep rising.

    1. It’s all smoke and mirrors ….lol :0) I feel better with smaller shackles now though :0)

  40. So I’m 10 short now and 15 long….goin to work out the cost of cutting my short positions and then get that back bit at a time ….I don’t think this market is coming down …..famous last words…..anytime just yet so when I’ve regained these losses scalping I might consider adding to remaining short but much higher up….work in progress :0)

  44. Oh Dear…I’ve made a schoolboy error….I sold a long instead of a short….corrected it as soon as I found the mistake but it’s cost me 25pts …..I saw a video by Linda Bradford Raschke and she said if you make an unforced error to correct it as soon as you find it so that’s what I’ve done…

      1. I’ve done that on several occasions – usually when I’m going mental size… i then stare at it for a second wondering why its in the red even though its doing what i expected. then i hope and pray. then i close. then i cry. hahaha

        1. Yes when your in the heat of battle it’s easy done….was trading off my iPad and watching the charts on computer….when you close out a position on the iPad it brings up the next one immediately…..was concentrating on the price action and not looking at the colour of the button on the iPad….it’s annoying but mistakes happen …..just got to find that extra 25pts now..so my £5 long bias on my hedge will have to pay for it and that’s my first target……Sometimes when you get stuck in positions it’s best to take the smallest loss you can …admit you got it wrong….and carry on……it took me a while to learn that but I think that’s why they say it can take between 2-5 years to find consistency….good luck noodlypop :0)

  45. What do you Guys still holding the bigger size shorts think?Smokinaces? Si? Anybody else? Be interested in your thoughts…

    1. Sorry if others have heard this before but it might help rich….When I first started trading I luckily made a lot of money….22k so I took my own money out and traded with my profits…..it goes to your head when you make big sums of money…I thought I was good…I wasnt .anyway I was short on the Ftse between £150 and £185 pp…..didn’t have a clue what I was doing but thought well it’s their money anyway! and I’d not been acquainted my Mr Pump! Anyway it started going up…..the market was knackered like it is now….but it just went up and up….I thought it’s gotta drop….it didn’t….cost me my 22k and a big chunk of my own money before I realised Mr Pump does ironman triathlons and he doesn’t get tired of pumping…So the moral is…..you can’t fight the Market if it’s made its mind up….The trick however …is figuring out when it changes its mind…very difficult….

  47. I think the market has been over-exuberant and over-optimistic with hopes of further stimulation pushing things up. Not that it won’t happen, but I think its got ahead of itself. Wouldn’t surprise me to see a push down to 6500 at least in the next 2 days… But perhaps it will just short squeeze again.. Will we be back to highs again today, going ‘whaaaa’…

    1. I don’t think its going to be allowed to drop just yet noodles……too much BS….still got 25% of my short so my next plan is to systematically regain my losses on the positions ive sold….then maybe re -add to short as the market accends. It’s gotta drop at some point….

    1. Well Coombsy when your sat in front of your laptop all bloody day trying to earn a few quid for your supper and your eyes can’t see which bloody trades I should be closing due to eye strain cause of watching Mr Pumps Crazy antics ….well you need abit humour. Lol :0)…..I reckon Mr Pumps wife got PMT and he’s taking it out on us…….:0) now I need to have a look for some blue to close or chippy will be on my case :0)

  51. Just sitting here wondering if Mr Pump has a pressure relief valve…..he’s got to be running 300psi …… Added another long to my hedge at 74 but kept quiet in case Mr P wants to spoil my day…….That Dow is having a laugh….if you can’t beat em….join em…:0)

  52. I don’t know much about chart patterns but that looks like a nice peachy double bottom on the 2 min Ftse…

      1. And not it started going. LOL but don’t care anymore. It’s nasty picking the tops.

    2. 14th July 2016 at 10:41 am (your post earlier: my reply here)
      We get used to having losses and understand sometime it’s all pointless, but why do we still do it? It’s not a lot of fun. It’s stressful! And you mentioned about the health… but stress is not good for it. I wish I could find a stress free trading method.

    1. The funny thing, yesterday I was long and it was a short afternoon so I was fighting with that. Today I did a short day (except the morning long), and it’s long afternoon. Paradox. What day to choose next? Or stick to one option? LOL

      1. The Dax is a really difficult index to trade Jack…… I’m just sticking to Ftse at the moment….sometimes when I’ve been stuck in an out of range Ftse position ive traded the Dax or Dow to try and make a few points,trouble is you can get overexposed on two or three markets at the same time and it ends in tears…..got that t -shirt…:0)

        1. No, I’ll stick to Dax for now, the spread is acceptable and rewards are potentially better. FTSE maybe less risky but not that exciting for me.

          1. That’s an interesting comment Jack, I would like to comment on what you said if that’s ok?……
            Ed sekota said….and it was quoted also by Tom hougaard….that everyone gets what they want out of the market……….Do you think it might be the excitement you want? I only asked because when I started it wasn’t about the money at all for me ….it was about can I beat the market?……now my goal is all about a progressive increase in trading account balance….I have been guilty of trading for the buzz in the past ….

    1. Afternoon Sir….you’ve been missed?…chips and ice cream in the park will make you fat :0)

      1. 🙂 I started cycling 5 mornings a week,got a circuit I try to beat the time on,got about 10% faster over the last couple of months.Not wearing the Lycra though,I’ll drop it before i get to that stage.

        1. I like to cycle to WSF……went on a ride a couple of years back with a mate and a female friend….my saddle used to hurt so my mate gave me some of those cycling shorts with a sponge pad in….like an incontinence pad lol….anyway we went on a long ride…it was 50 odd miles and ended up in a posh pub….I said to the women I was with…”I never thought I would go into a pub wearing tight Lycra shorts” only did it once though…..my saddle seems to have bedded in now :0)

  56. Anstel – jack – WSF – coombsy – inoodle – sharnbee
    Are any one of you really making any money ?
    Even the Boss Nick seems to be finding it difficult.
    Well as for me – £ XX,000 down. Those x’s are > 6

    1. I’m slowly regaining losses but it’s not easy finding consistency…..I regard what I’ve lost as education training fees and don’t expect to start making a consistant wage just yet…..I think between 3 and 5 years to be successful….had some great weeks £2246 last week but this short has took a big chunk out of it…I’ll get it back though……The sort of money that’s available in trading is enormous but we are trading against the worlds best …..it’s not going to be easy and anyone that says it is is lying…..good luck mate….

      1. Are you saying you made £2246 / week?
        What is your Trade side?
        Is it just on one trade?
        Does this take into account your losses?
        What is your drawdown?
        but as a raw figure 2246 is fantastic

        1. Yeah I made a profit of £2246 last week but most of its gone on this short….made about £1500 week before too but I’m still well down overall….it’s not easy….

          1. Made 20k one week in my first year….gave it back the following week….you only learn by making mistakes..

          2. Best run I ever had 5k for 4 weeks on the run….then £10400… :0) then lost the bloody lot :0(

          3. Approx 30 trades…..biggest single winning trade just over a grand…different strategies and different trade sizes as I considered appropriate…

      2. I think the big problem is when you blow a couple of accounts and you start trading bigger size to try and get it back……gotta kept it to a manageable size and I don’t always do this but keep position size the same on all trades because you don’t know which will be profitable and which will not be….I used to trade 8 trades in a row and make money then go in bigger on the next and loss the gains on the previous 8 trades…..you only learn by doing it….all your mates tell you how to do it though :0)

    2. Hey Jsft, Erm no. I’m about 20k out since brexit. Thought have seen 3 days of profit in a row this week – just a shame its in the hundreds not thousands category like my losses. eek.

      1. Hi JSft, I think it just takes a while to get a method that works in all conditions or methods for all conditions.I cut my trade frequencey to 3 or 4 short term scalps a day almost 2 months ago.Mostly Candlestick setups and only after the U.S has been open for a bit,only going with whatever the intraday trend appears to be and avoiding events and event days sometimes.My best month is still Jan for this year,but I’m feeling ok about it,not working long days at the moment and not looking for any particular target,just look at it as this isnt a Mkt for me and I’ll make it up on the Santa Rally.

      2. Dude !! You are some millionaire here ! 20k I will be choked by my wife before that happens !! Lol

        1. No not a millionaire mate…..sometimes when things happen in your life it changes your outlook…….I’m more scared now of not trying my very hardest than I am of losing the money…..most people die with a few pounds in the bank…..what’s the point?you might as well have a go and try and improve your life while your alive……

        2. Yeah I should choke myself. My lessons have cost me more than that over the last 7 years… and can’t say I’ve been the best student! I can make about 2k a week if I chain a few moderate successes together. Mostly involving trying to stay off 100/pp. I ‘only’ really want 500 a day, so 10pp is fine.

          1. I Like your spirit dude !! wish you all the best .. surely soon enough you will recover all of that just dun chase it and let it hppen!!

    3. I restarted last week, at the moment made a little for the current balance. In overall I need 6 grand to get back to 0 where I started several years ago, so it seems I was loosing wisely over the years. 🙂

      1. I was trying to find my post which I thought I published but didn’t I was short from 6705 and just now came out 55 !! @anstel :regarding your question I dun believe in holding trade for long no matter what the loss or profits is; reason being it clutter your mind and all the strategy goes outside window !! So i dun have any I going trade for now !! One thing I have learnt remembering what happen yesterday is good for insight but too much of it makes you blind towards today !! I really wish each and every one of you luck as I know it’s not easy, if it was everybody was doing it. But if there is new member reading it , treat it like business where you have targets, backup plans and risk management . No loss is bigger when you take it by will but it is if forced lol.. With them I think downside is on menu now !! Have some more patience people who are holding from sometime now !! There is also things I would like to share to anybody who just trade in short term and not like warren buffet ! There is thing called heiken

        1. Ashi candle stick that is quite good for keeping losses in control !! Feel free to share thoughts !!

          1. Hi Sharma…..I was very very impressed with your trading last week…..you got out of that short Friday night………..I held……could have dumped it for -£29 and still been £2300 up on week…..it’s how we learn….your really good.. I need to improve further .thanks for sharing your thoughts…..

  58. Anstel – and anybody else
    The question I am asking – is ” is there anybody Actually ” making money.
    Yes we can all discuss the values of learning, trade size, what not to do, etc etc.
    But can anybody really own up to ” Actually ” – ” Yes I Am Making Money ”
    It just seems like a mug’s game.
    Win – 100 lose 290 win 80 lose 10 lose 780 win 256 lose 170 etc. etc.
    Just want to hear from somebody – who can hold his hand on his heart and say
    ” yep – I am making money “

      1. I’m down at the moment so no I’m not making money……..My mates an airline pilot. It cost thousands and thousands to get his licence …ppl…night rating…IMC….I R rating….twin rating. Hours building …instructing ….then CPL. …….then he lost his first job because the airline went bust…..ended up cleaning windows and gardening…….He’s doing great now…….but it doesn’t come easy…….This trading is bloody hard …..you can’t expect to put 5k into a trading account and go and buy a tropical island the next year mate…..How long have you been trading?

      2. Actually Yes i am making money,Yep i am making money,It is just following trends when you see them and accepting you wont always be right.

    2. I am making some !!every Month equivalent to tesco store manager salary !!lol why would you do something if it is not taking somewhere !! Let’s not discuss figures here ! Everybody got their own capacity for the sizes of trade bet. I dun think I can take 20k loss and still live to write this post !! All in good humour

      1. shambee
        so you make tesco store manager salary. £ 75,000 +.
        So is this for years or months?
        well hats off to you
        I would like to ask you the same question may be december 2016 !
        no offence

        1. Hey JSft …..You are giving me the impression you have taken some recent losses by some of your comments and the underlying tone of your post…..I remember you saying some time ago you where thinking of throwing in the towel……I tried this stratagy and found it to work quite well…….£4 pp out at 10 pts profit no matter what….no lingering thinking it will go another 3 points…..if you do that 5 times a day that £200 a day…..that’s a good wage minimum risk…..repeat x 5 days ….grand a week….Think carefully about where you go wrong. Get yourself in a positive frame of mind too or you will never find success…..I hope that helps you buddy…..very best of luck….

        2. No offense taken ! Jsft it looks a lot but if you break down to per day after tax is paid its only 246 gbp/day … You think that is not doable?

  59. JSft is right to ask though I think…..a lot of traders like to play the big man and tell you what they have made…but not tell you about the losses…Personally I think my problem area is disapline…..it’s a lot better than it used to be…..but it’s not good enough….. I think if I’d not been extremely lucky when I started I would not have blown my first account…….When you do make big money and you are inexperienced it creates a feeling of euphoria and you think you can make money easily and that’s when your risk needs to be monitored extremely carefully…..on the other hand…..I know I can make a decent wage at this because I have experienced sustained periods of positive account growth…..I need to control my disapline and keep position size down…it’s all in the mind….success is all in the mind….good luck all.

    1. Thanks for your kind words Anstel on previous post!! I agree too that its right to ask about the trade but for example: you might have 50 k account and I only have 10 k so when you say that you are hedging and building many position to reduce avarage position, you have greater margin and resources though we both might have start with same size bet !! but rally like this one would have easily taken me out with a ease but atleast in your case you have funds to hold it or close it @ manageble loss and then go short when time is right but I would not be able to do that !! And beleive me its very tempting when you hear story of someone making 5k /week for a month !! so My suggestion is even if we think the same, & have same bet size we are not in same capacity!! I hope I made some sense !! No harsh feeling dude , let everybody have the gain for their hard work!!

      1. Hi Sharma its a good point you make about account size , it’s etiquette to not really talk about position size in pounds but just in points….the problem with that though is the emotional strengths needed to trade larger size increase exponentially….and realistically trading 0.50 p per point is not very likely to make you a living wage…..Some people reading this will have full time jobs and view trading as a pipe dream….they trade 0.50p a point but have big illusions of grandeur….can’t have it both ways…..stable income or a roller coaster life…I’ve made the decision to try and learn how to trade………I’m committed to the task in hand ……I know as we all do how very hard it is to succeed at this endeavour and I have backed my desire to learn with my money……If I am not able to succeed at least I know I have tried my very hardest and I can do no more than that…..very best of luck to everyone who try’s to trade the markets…..your all heroes in my book……

    2. Anstel
      yes I ask out aloud what I am sure most are asking in silence.
      so lets see how many can just come out with just a simple answer
      Yes – I am making money and have been making money for the past 5 years
      without any hyperbole.
      Hedge funds – make 1% or at best 3% per annum,but not consistently.
      So we are trying to do something that they and so many of the best have
      not achieved.
      So that’s why I am asking myself – ” am I a mug …in believing in what really is only an alice in wonderland dream “

      1. No I’m not making money…..I have less than I started with….so actually I’m losing money….does that help?

      2. Not like for like comparison,a fund isnt an individual.look at prop traders point targets for day,wk,mth etc etc

      3. Its a good question.
        I don’t think many manage it. I can string together 10 days of profit, but then I wipe it with a day of losses stemming from lack of discipline when frustrated.
        My only hope is that I can weed out the mistakes and be more selective in the trades that I make. As tmfp said, ‘its not the trades you do make, its the ones you don’t make’.
        But my losses at present are 10x my wins 🙁

  60. Anstel – wsf – inoodle – sharnbee – jack
    All good points. Very valid.
    I have trading for many many years.
    I am not saying it is not possible to make profit.
    The point is ” we all also make Losses ”
    ( yes I know – its part of the game…..and the rest of it )
    You go to tesco and work and get a wage slip – whether its £ 150 or £ 2390 every week. Its cumulative.
    This mugs game is + then – then – then + and at the end of the year – the cumulative is a big £ 0.
    And we tell ourselves – ” correct that mistake ” .. I will put stop there….i will trade smaller £4/pip and so forth.
    tesco worker – stacks the shelves well – then one day he gets a bollocking …then the next day he is in the warehouse – but after all the + & – & – he still comes out with a Cumulative £++.
    ————————-
    Mugs game …. I tell you why. The real money makers in this game are – the guys who Bet Big and the dice rolls in their favour. They are the heroes – full stop. Or the Warren buffets &- wait….wait….wait and bingo 20 yrs later.
    ————————
    sorry guys – just wanted to hear from somebody – who has really made a cumulative return in this job

    1. All the best mate…..most of us find it hard………I blame it all on Mr Pump myself…….one day his seals will go and there will be no replacements…….looking abit like the seals are leaking now as it happens….

      1. Look at the guys on Etoro or whatever,at the end of the day I know what is wrong with my Boxing and what has always been wrong with it and that I cant really improve now,but that doesnt make me think there arent people who are better at it than me either from work and/or the way they are,that would make no sense but it is what you seem to be saying about Trading.All the best anyway.

      2. Bloody hell …..you actually started rubbing off on me then JSft….I nearly put my coat on and went to look for a job at Tescos…there’s a lot to be said for believing you can do something….even before you succeed …..That Earl Nightingale knew a thing or two I think….have a look on You Tube……..it’s called “listen….the strangest secret….”
        Also I saw an Anthony Robbins video….he was interviewing a guy who ran the 4 min mile…..was it roger bannister or someone anyway…..in the video two guys are talking to Anthony Robbins ,they are both sat on a settee…..one of the guys had been looking at a fancy car he was interested in….his mates said why are you looking at that? Your a dreamer….you havn’t got the money…..the guy said no I havnt yet but I’m going to get that car…….later on when he had made the money he bought the car and called to see the chaps that said why was he looking at such an expensive car………A common denominator of the three men in the video was they had all been at Rock Bottom before finally finding success……..if I can find the video I will post it….

          2. Something I would just like to add…..it’s a quote by George Bernard Shaw……..I first came across this in 1988 and cut it out of the paper it was printed on…..

            “The people who get on in this world are the people who look for the circumstances they want,and if they can’t find them,they make them”…….

    2. You really asking good question though and it’s also informative for others when you share your loss story !! I am not taking this personally when I replied ! And dun think anybody is . Point to be note though what if one does not make lose not because he is perfect but he learns to take even the smallest profit if it doesn’t look right ! all I can say whenever it is going south I take a knee and it helps as we know we are not the one moving it. I try to remember this when i put the trade .. Rest all mystery what’s blue is history !! See you tomorrow guys .. Very informative discussion today ..makes me humble !!

    1. You should be fine now Si……I’ve closed most of my short so it’s bound to drop…

    1. Can I come round for some :0) I’m bloody starvin here but ive got a bad case of marketitus and am keeping an eye on the Dow in case of an authentic rally :0)

  64. Evening guys, I’ve only posted on here once or twice but follow the page daily. Great stuff I might add!!
    I have made an observation today of my own trading psychology which may or may not interest others here.
    I normally trade around the £5-10 pp mark and catch what I can normally going for between 5-10 points a time, plenty of wrong uns but overall come out on top.
    Now today I pushed the boundaries for me and did £30pp every trade! Scary stuff for me, but, that aside I did far better points wise than with smaller monetary amounts. I did 23×3 point trades at that level and found it somehow less stressful than with my normal small amounts and the aggregated profits are the best I’ve ever had spreadbetting. Now sorry for this essay but it feels like a eureka moment and just wondered if anyone else had done or does the same with a larger stake and keep plugging away at small but regular profits?

    1. That’s very interesting stevejp and welcome……that Linda Bradford Raschke advocates exiting for a small number of points also….I think you could be on to a good strategy for yourself there……I tried it once on £1 a point and taking 5 pts it does work….you just have to stop the losses before they run away…I like to give it room to breath though….

      1. Hi Anstel, thankyou, I am of the thinking that because each pip is of high value eg £30 that after only say 3 pips i say to myself that’s a real solid worthwhile amount and bank it without hesitation, Though when using my normal amounts and I look at it after 3 pips and think £15? I tend to let it run and that’s when the problems start, trying to make it perform miracles lol
        Hope this makes sense

        1. Yes I know what you mean Steve…but if you trade £5 a point x3 20 times a day that’s £300 but your limiting your risk to £5 a point……….bloody hell I should listen to myself sometimes :0)

          1. Just spotted this comment, sorry, yes i see what you mean and £300 post day is a damn good wage i agree

      2. Just as a side note…..I would like to make you aware that trading 30pp you are liable for 30 x 6650 approx….that’s 200 grand…..if it dropped to zero without a guaranteed stop its a disaster….. Don’t think they will close you out either if you run out of margin…..as long as it’s in their favour they will hold you open and only close you out when it starts going back in your favour……Guess how I learnt that?……also if your £30 a point without stops and you take 3 points on 10 trades that’s 900 pound …when will you cut the 11th trade when it drops 40 pts out of the blue on you? tmfp used to say 5 either way or 10 either way…..worth thinking about……

        1. Solid advice! Today I aimed for 3 points per trade, 6 point s/l on each trade just in case it went against me quickly but cut losers manually at 4 points every time, it felt like pure daytrading and I was wired so to speak, could have just been a good day (mentally) but it has made me re evaluate things, I traded almost mechanically and although I’m not going to do it again for a while it has made me step back and see if I may have found my niche

          2. That’s good if you have the disapline to close at -4 ….takes some doing……but if it drops fast your system stop might not save you as fast as you would hope for…..I remember trading the Dow one day……1 usd pp it was coming up to NFP….I was up about 9 points. Put a stop behind my position to give me +2 if it dropped……It did drop …….300 points in the end……by the time my stop caught it it cost me $70 …..always remember that…….as it happened I bought it back around the bottom of the move and regained the $70 plus made a chunk on it…….but the lesson was about falling through the stop…..hope that helps Steve ….all the best mate ….good luck…

        2. That’s scary! I’ll look into guaranteed stops though without looking first before typing this something in the back of my mind tells me you can’t put them very close to your opening price?

    2. Nice Steve,well done, hope that that continues and no reason why it shouldnt,as long as you keep doing the same thing at the the same times should be same %ges,it’s a Paul Tudor Jones observation about progress too,
      “After a while size means nothing. It gets back to whether you’re making 100% rate of return on $10,000 or $100 million dollars. It doesn’t make any difference.”
      I think the person who does big stakes and small point targets and talks about it is Tom Hougaard,think Anstel posted a link to him talking about it last yr.Have a good evening.

      1. Thankyou WSF
        I traded ftse index options for years and it was more like a game of chess than trading though did do very well in late 2008 on five Dec puts which I bought in July!
        I feel that after 1000’s of hours of screentime and reading that I just can’t ignore the mechanical emotionless style that I am drawn towards, it, as Anstel said may need tweaking with regards to risk but the core is definitely there.

    1. stevejp, I would stay clear of that new strategy that you invented, it’s not worth it. It is really dangerous. Not every trade will give you 3 points profit guaranteed. In fact, very many trades just go into opposite direction.
      I use something even more dangerous sometimes when I have no choice and I’m stuck with losses (like I did today). So I build up my wins on tops (short trades to gain some pips on the high stakes, similar to what you do) to cover my losses below so that I could close my lower positions when I accumulate enough profits on top trades to cover them. In the process I’m trying to reduce lower positions at expense of accumulated profits. Today for example the max I went on adding up was £17pp but I had £4pp on the lower trades to start with. Not every top trade immediately gave me profits. But pull backs happened and I closed wisely and reduced my stake to £12, then to £7, then added £3 and gathered some more wins and eventually it pulled back and my wins were equal to losses and so I closed.
      Max it fluctuated to -£325 of total losses (I was generally lucky on high stakes short trades on tops today), eventually I had wins of £110 and I closed at – £111 of the remaining losses and got b/e where I started.
      I wrote it partly for myself to realise that this is not what I meant to do here and that I need to stop doing it. What I was trying to do is to save my b/e, what was the point of that? Instead of getting the loss of those 10 points which was my initial stop loss clearly seen on the chart, which I opened, I went through this unnecessary ordeal! Do I need to explain how it builds up later? You think, it will turn, it will pull back, you are still greedy thinking about the risk and profit (no way I will go now after I’ve suffered and risked all this money, I need the profit now, I will not go with the loss), but eventually you come up with the plan B.
      And it’s viral, infectious disease it is.
      I suppose this is a common way to fight with the losing trades, I’ve done it many times and it’s very dangerous. It caught me up on crash/surge days when it really fails you and your account.
      I will conclude by saying that the best way which was invented so far in trading is the same old: stop loss and double your profits way of trading. After years of searching this is the best model which in theory should work the best. Good luck.

      1. Morning jack 2
        That was an insightful breakdown of trader psychology, thankyou.
        Yes, as you say the 2:1 ratio is the bread and butter of sound trading and i have over the years used it on different instruments with success. I have found that i have 2 strong methods, index options using daily /weekly charts and the opposite pole 1-3 min charts and banging out small profits. For me most things in between are where I have issues, I’m going to demo trade this theory from yesterday and see how it can be adjusted to suit most intraday nuances.

    1. Looks like it’s the soup kitchen again then….or whetherspoons doorway……WSF put me onto whethespoons …..really good free wifi….

    1. You would expect a drop with the Dow at these heady heights and no reduction in UK rates…..but it is an election year……and maybe Mr Pump doesn’t want to give the shorters any profit?very difficult trading this market…..

  72. Cracking days chat fellas. Many ideas to ponder. GL overnight for those of you holding positions!

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