FTSE 100 Support 6510 6495 6434 6422
FTSE 100 Resistance 6537 6538 6549 6571 6578

Good morning. The focus today is the NFP report that could sway expectations for the timing of the Federal Reserve’s next interest-rate increase. Released at 13:30 expect some movement around this time. The forecast is 180k, compared to last months 38k. Cant really be worse than that! Bit of a mixed bag yesterday on the trades with the Dax being the stand out performer with the 9499 short, unfortunately the FTSE only managed a double top with the 6581 level, just missing the 6585 short order. Later in the afternoon it nearly hit the 100 Hull MA on the 2 hour which had dropped to 6573 by that point, and then fell away again. However, it’s actually proving quite resilient at the moment. The S&P long order for 2091 had expired by the time that level hit, but those that did take it saw a nice rise to 2100. As its NFP Friday, stay cautious today!

US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg

Asian stocks dropped with Malaysia’s ringgit as oil traded below $46 a barrel in the wake of U.S. stockpiles figures. The dollar weakened against its G-10 peers before an American employment report, while deadly gun attacks on police in Dallas bolstered demand for haven assets.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index extended its weekly loss with almost three shares falling for every one that rose. Crude clawed back some of the last session’s 4.8 percent plunge, which was triggered by data showing a smaller-than-expected decrease in U.S. supplies. New Zealand’s currency led gains among major currencies as the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell by the most in a week. Japanese bond yields sank to fresh lows, while markets in Taiwan were shut Friday because of a typhoon.

While anxiety over the fallout from the U.K.’s vote to leave the European Union flared again in markets this week, the focus of attention on Friday is a U.S. payrolls report that could sway expectations for the timing of the Federal Reserve’s next interest-rate increase. Officials at the central bank flagged concern over job creation at their last meeting, which followed data showing American employers in May took on the fewest workers since 2010.

“Investors will find it difficult to make a move ahead of the U.S. data,” said Masayuki Doshida, a senior market analyst with the Rakuten Economic Research Institute in Tokyo. “The U.S. economy is fairly stable, so we’ll be looking at whether the extreme drop in the jobs data last month was a temporary thing. In order to figure out when the next rate increase will be, any revisions to last month’s data will also be in focus.”

Employers in the U.S. probably added 180,000 workers to nonfarm payrolls last month, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey. That compares with an unexpectedly weak tally of 38,000 reported for May, a figure that helped curb expectations that the Fed would boost interest rates over the summer. The subsequent Brexit vote took an axe to bets on policy tightening in 2016, with the odds on an increase by December having tumbled to just 12 percent in the futures market from more than 70 percent at the start of last month.

Stocks

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index declined 0.5 percent as of 1:51 p.m. Tokyo time, set for a 1.1 percent weekly loss. A measure of energy shares was the worst performer among 10 industry groups, with oil explorers Cnooc Ltd. and Inpex Corp. sliding 1.9 percent or more.
Japan’s Topix index slid to a two-week low before voters head to the polls Sunday for an upper-house election that Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has billed as a gauge of backing for his economic policies. Nintendo Co. soared as much as 12 percent in Tokyo after the company’s new mobile-game app Pokemon Go topped charts for free-to-download games in the U.S. and Australia.

The S&P/ASX 200 Index was headed for a weekly loss as ballot papers continue to be counted after a national election in Australia last weekend. Results so far indicate it is likely that Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull’s Liberal-National coalition will be returned to office, either with a slender majority, or in a minority government with the support of smaller parties.

The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.9 percent on Friday, though was still headed for its first back-to-back weekly gains in more than three months. Futures on the S&P 500 Index declined 0.2 percent, while contracts on the U.K.’s FTSE 100 Index slipped 0.4 percent.

Currencies

The kiwi strengthened 0.3 percent versus the greenback and reached a 14-month high against Australia’s dollar. It jumped 1.4 percent in the last session after comments from New Zealand central bank Deputy Governor Grant Spencer crushed expectations that interest rates will be cut anytime soon, boosting the attraction of the highest-yielding G-10 currency. The odds of the nation’s borrowing costs being reduced next month dropped to 40 percent on Friday from as much as 70 percent earlier in the week, derivatives show.The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index slipped 0.2 percent, trimming this week’s advance to 0.4 percent. The yen rose 0.4 percent, buoyed by haven demand after four police officers were reported shot dead during a protest in Dallas. The pound also strengthened 0.3 percent and the euro gained 0.2 percent.

The ringgit sank 0.5 percent as trading resumed after a two-day break. Thursday’s slide in crude prices dimmed prospects for Malaysia, Asia’s only major net oil exporter.

Commodities

West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.7 percent to $45.47 a barrel, paring this week’s slide to about 7 percent. It touched $44.87 in the last session, the lowest level in almost two months, after data showed U.S. crude stockpiles fell by 2.2 million barrels last week, less than the 2.5 million-barrel decline forecast by analysts.

Gold fell 0.2 percent, trimming this week’s gain to 1.3 percent. The precious metal is rising for the sixth week in a row, its longest winning streak in two years. Copper rose 0.2 percent in London as nickel dropped 1.1 percent.

Bonds

Japanese government bonds gained, pushing the two- and 10-year yields to all-time lows of minus 0.365 percent and minus 0.30 percent, respectively. The rate on U.S. Treasuries due in a decade declined two basis points to 1.36 percent.

“There’s a whole flight to quality,” said Toshifumi Sugimoto, chief investment officer in Tokyo at Capital Asset Management. “There’s political turmoil in the U.S.” [Bloomberg]

FTSE 100 Outlook and Prediction

Its NFP Friday so keep your guard up today. I am expecting a bit of a rise and dip day with the “buy the rumour sell the news” pattern. I have resistance at the daily pivot at 6537 and then on the 2 hour chart at 6549 and 6578 (this will drop during the day). I am still expecting a bit of a dip down towards the 25ema on the daily chart, currently at 6338, but the bears will need to break the 30min 200ema at 6510 first. Below that then some of the 10 day channels come into play with the 10 day Bianca at 6434 and the 10day Raff at 6422. At the moment the 30min and 2 hour charts are bearish, but if the bulls manage to break 6570 then that picture could change. After a pretty topsy turvy week, we may well see some profit taking ahead of the weekend as well. Its all about NFP today though.