Article 50 | US Rate Rise | FTSE 100 resistance 7373 7399 | Support 7325

13th March 2017

FTSE 100 Support 7347 7328 7323 7321 7282 7275 7235
FTSE 100 Resistance 7381 7399 7419 7425 7439 7440

Good morning, hope you had a good weekend. Bulls fought back just after the bell on Friday to regain some ground from the 7336 area just after the market closed, with the 30min 200ema at that level holding as support. That move kept the FTSE 100 looking pretty strong, especially as oil bounced back a bit from Thursdays lows.

Most of the weekend news was dominated by Brexit and when Article 50 is going to be triggered – probably this week. Also probably this week will see an interest rate rise in the USA. We have a week central bank policy decisions from Japan to the U.S. NFP was slightly ahead of expectations, and interest rates are more likely to rise if their economy is doing well.

FTSE 100 Outlook and Prediction

FTSE 100 Prediction
FTSE 100 Prediction

Bear in mind that the bull Monday, bear Tuesday pattern has been playing out pretty well the past few months and as we have resistance initially at 7374 and 7381, with support at 7321 I think we might well get an initial dip down to this level from the 7380 area. If the bulls were able to push above that though then 7399 is the next area of resistance that might see some stutters. Generally speaking the market looks pretty strong at the moment, with Friday being pretty positive with the NFP news.

Support wise below 7321 we have 7275 for the bottom of the 2 Bianca channels and the 10 day Rafff at 7267. The bears would be buoyed by the break of 7300 and might well have the strength to drive it lower than these supports though, with 7230 and 7170 on the cards. Whilst I say that the FTSE 100 has been strong, its mostly been helped by the GBPUSD rate which underpins the profits of most of the FTSE 100 companies. There have also been a fair few take over approaches by US companies of some of them, while the exchange rate is favourable for them.

So for today, I am thinking that we will get slightly bearish day to dip down to test the 7321 level. It might be a fairly slow decline though (famous last words), and it will be interesting to see if the bulls defend that level if it is tested. If it holds then the US might well drag us back up later but 7380 are is looking like decent resistance to start with.

50 Comments

  1. Morning all,just thought I’d break the ice….presently long from 58.3 …..good luck all…

    1. Why so early? Nick drew a dip which is now in progress. Don’t know if it gets to 7323 though.
      I had long from 8.18 to 8.45 (just before a school run) on Dax. I felt it would bounce from pivot so closed before going out. Nice.

      1. I don’t trade technical stuff Jack….I like the RSI and It usually respects various SMAs when it’s going cautiously bullish ,double tops and double bottoms seem good indicators of traders sentiment but I just trade with a feel for it and taking into account the geopolitical stuff that’s going on..Its more a case for me of where I think the market is heading…..trading the noise can burn you very easily…..

        1. It’s tricky to trade a feeling although it helps I know. For me EMA and MACD are my life. I do have RSI and Stochastic on my charts but they are support indicators for me.

          1. I don’t have the slightest idea how stochastics work…I remember reading about them once….might have another bit of a read about them….good luck Jack…

          2. All I have is about 7 sma’s 5 10 20 40 50 100 200 the Rsi set at 10 80 overbought 20 oversold tmfp settings and MACD that’s all I have…..I’m not that good with charts ,I have been overlaying fibs on occasion because I was re – entering pullbacks too early…

  2. morning anstel, all
    ftse keeping its range a bit tight this morning! 6 pts over last 50 mins….
    Kinda keen to go long dax as it looks a bit tight trend grind up, but I’m slightly unconvinced since its at the top of the morning range and usdjpy looking weak….

    1. Morning inoodle, it’s good to see you posting again….it was getting very quiet recently, pity tmfp is not posting at the moment, his comments where always interesting and informative….there’s not many of us left on here…..plenty have fallen by the wayside,it’s a real shame…..good luck mate ….

      1. I’m working on the simple theory that everyone expected the market to hit 7400 on Friday with a strong NFP……as it always seems to go where I thought it was going to go originally……its just the timing I get wrong I figured I might just take up another long as I cocked up on Friday…Its as good a theory as anything so let’s see :0)

        1. Yeah I’ll try and post a bit more – easy to get too lost in the detail of trading and not spend enough time putting ideas out there.
          I like your theory of it going where you originally thought… UsdJpy is at a fairly pivotal area at the moment (11452ish). You’d think on a simplistic level that dollar should strengthen, but maybe there is more of a pullback needed to get everyone in at a nice level (plus some stops to chase).

          So much going on politically at the moment. Interested in seeing what happens in the house of commons this afternoon and what reaction the pound has.

    2. Morning all. Shorted Dax this morning at 11990, taken half at +21

      FTSE had a short order for 7373 which missed by half a point. Hopped on at 7362 instead and currently still running it though have taken some off at 7345

  3. For what it’s worth. My opinion is ftse has topped out and is in decline. Any whiff of a rising £ and ftse heading to 6870 by Easter. This week is the start of the decline.

    1. I don’t think you are far off the mark there mate….a bit more bull first I reckon a week or 2 perhaps…

    2. Possible but FTSE is still close to the top and therefore within inches of breakout. Would think we would have to fill the gap to 7400 and look for a reversal around there, no sign of one yet. Im out just now, too messy for me to play this.

  4. I trade the daily candles. Hardest part of trading is staying out. If you get greedy and jump in to snatch a few pips the market will savage you every time. I dont see any markets that currently appeal except gold, which produced a hammer and piercing pattern on Friday and has fallen sufficiently to wàrrant at least a bounce. A set up like this usually offers the chance to take profit somewhere. If it pulls back to 1200 area I will go long with initial target 1230 and stop around 1188.
    Of course with the prospect of USD rate rise and stronger dollar it is counter-intuitive to go long, most amateurs will want to short it. So Iooking for long here and waiting for the nasty market-manipulators to suck in all the shorts before applying the squeeze.

      2. People think the markets arent rational because they dont move the way you think they should based on fundamentals. But they are perfectly rational. The strong take from the weak. And in this world, thats perfectly rational, like it or not.

  5. anstel (answer from above):
    Don’t worry about Stochastic, someone used it with conjunction with RSI so I kept them there on the chart. I have only 3 EMAs (cannot place more than 3 on my platform but I don’t need more 200 20 10)
    I have Bollinger and Par. SAR as well. Just noticed. They all create a nice picture. I like SARs sometimes and like to see Bollinger if price spikes through it or whether they are narrow or wide. But I only notice them when I need them. They are not the reason for entering the trade. 🙂
    I spent a few years trying to write it down. 2-3 notebooks, excel documents, screen shots, etc. My task is to minimize the summary to clarify what I only need to do. I have a few good samples of my strategy. Still working on it.

    1. Jack,what’s this Par. And SAR…..ive never heard of those? I’m going to have a look and see what I can find…….:0) while I’m waiting for 7400 :0)

      1. Ah ok ive found it….parabolic stop and return……by that wilder guy……holy shit I need an indicator to tell me what indicators I should use…..:0)

      3. Parabolic SAR it’s like dots above or below the price. It kind of shows when the last support breaks or something, It shows whether it’s short or long but it doesn’t mean you should go short or long. It’s some kind of confirmation. Some people use it for exiting the trade. I like it, it’s cool.

      4. But again, it’s not part of my strategy. All these things are nice but strategy should be simplified that’s what I learned. You need to use only a few tools for making a decision and let other indicators to be alongside just for the peace of mind (if you know them of course). It’s like Parabolic and Bollinger, I used to use them so when I found MACD for example or EMA I kind of switched to those but kept the first “friends” still with me cos I know them. You know what I mean? 🙂

        1. Yes I know what you mean ..:0) im a firm believer in the KISS principle…….”keep it simple stupid”…..if most traders go on courses about technical analysis and all the bullshit they try and sell you…..and then 90% of then get their butts kicked….its not a bad idea to look at what most people do and then do the opposite…..the old George Constanza theory someone posted a year or two back….plus you get to save the money on the courses…..its a game lol….just gotta figure out the rules…..and the rules are……there ain’t no rules…..lol…. I think a big problem most traders have is they are sh@t scared of losing…..I remember someone used to post on here a lot….not mentioning any names….but he always had tight stops 7-12 pts…..he got his @rse kicked time and time again …then he saved up and tried again but was probably even more scared of losing and kept really tight stops again……he’s not posted for ages…..he seemed to know all the technical talk but he’s not hear any more…..its sad for him because he really tried….

          2. i would just to add that although I’m not very good at the technical side,that this Forum and Nicks analysis and the interaction with some very experienced people who I have been fortunate enough to interact with on here have been an enormous help to me and I think Nick offers a great service to the average trader starting out who possible doesn’t have the kind of resources available to invest,that some of the other trading educators are charging,he shares his knowledge and experience and provides us with a place to share ideas….we can then fund our account with money we might have spent on education,and learn the only way I think is going to give positive results….Trial and Error and the school of hard knocks…..Thanks Nick….

          3. If he was losing on stops, when did he win then? He must have put stops in wrong places. I think it’s about the fear of losing and it’s the opposite: if you are scared of losing you will not put stops, actually. Mentally when you don’t put stops – they don’t exist and so you are not losing, but it’s a wrong thinking.
            I think stops should be placed but you need to know where to put them.
            I think Nick is very good in what he is offering, I agree with you totally.

      5. Waste of time my friend, like most coloured lines on charts. Pox-ridden derivations of price. Useless.

        1. There’s a certain usage in them although they are lagging. I’m just used to the picture.

  7. Support and resistance can be played with defined risk. Candle patterns often repeat and mitigate risk further. Anything else is just nonsense, a crutch for the feeble-minded. There is no magic line.

  8. Just can’t see 7400 AnStel. Not sure what combination of events can get it there. All I can see is Brexit, Scottish devolution vote problems, US interest rate rise and an already very low value £ which the Bank of England is supporting at £1.22 Dollar.

  10. Hey folks, how have you all been. Haven’t posted for a while but I do follow the conv. regularly.
    Agree we are at a top and hopefully will catch most of the upcoming downside

  11. Thats me long gold 1203.5 average entry target 1225ish for a 2% potential return stop 1188. Also still fancy the slow grind to 7400 on FTSE but not betting on it, risk/reward is poor.

  12. Evening chaps,didn’t fancy pulling an all nighter,out of long at 7375.8 from 58.1 in the end…it had been 3 or maybe 4 points higher before Ftse closed late afternoon but , well it’s not an exact science is it….chuffed with that,17.7 pts at a decent size so time to relax now,goodnight chaps….

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