21st March 2017
Good morning. That was a very slow rise off the 7400 support level that we had but at least the 7403 long netted some points, even if it did take all day! We had the bull Monday, will we get the bear Tuesday? Also, there is no dividend this week. The triggering of Article 50 has been set for 29th March as well. Data due for release today may show U.K. inflation has edged above the 2 percent target in February to 2.1% (forecasted) and retail sales probably rose also.
The U.S. Federal Reserve could raise interest rates two, three or four times this year, said Chicago Fed President Charles Evans, though his Minneapolis colleague Neel Kashkari argued that there was no need to rush. In France, presidential candidates squared off in a TV debate Monday night ahead of the upcoming closely watched election.
FTSE 100 Outlook and Prediction
For today I am thinking that we will get a rise and dip sort of day. There is some fairly decent resistance at the X area where we have R3 and also a fib level, with the 10 day Bianca at X just below that. The daily RSI(10) is at 72 again so we are starting to get a little toppy and could do with a dip to get away from that. Of course, RSI isn’t an entry signal in its own right but more of a guide if things are overbought or oversold. Above this X area then X still looks like fairly key resistance where we have the top of the 2 Raff channels.
On the support side we have the daily pivot at X, then the 200ema at X below that. The bears will be keen to break 7400 which was yesterdays low and the bottom of the 10 day Bianca today, as well as S1, as that opens up the possibility of a trip down to X where we have the 20 day Bianca channel.
The bulls will be buoyed up by yesterdays slow rise and that 7430 level holding overnight so we may well get another slow rise towards the X level. Volatility remains low across markets from equities to currencies and fixed-income as investors strive to assess how sustainable the nascent global economic recovery is.
2.3% inflation….. yeah right!
Bear Tuesday!
As if UK interest rates could rise! We are hooked on low rates and the whole economy would come to a screeching halt were it to happen in the next 5 years. Shall be looking for the GBP to turn around in the next few days and the play will be adding to FTSE longs.
Be interesting to see if the 7360 level holds
On 4 occasions in recent past the 20 day MA has held as support, currently around 7350 so closing below would be bearish.