7480 still resistance | bear Tuesday but probably not | FTSE 100 Analysis

100 Comments

1. Took Anstels coaching, maybe gone too far to fair…Went in heavy on longs, now am long bias. Doing well so far…

   Question now when to hold and when to fold.

   Thinking I’m going to ride to FTSE closing, or close on bell depending on where it’s at and if I have e covered the divi.

   GL

   1. Morko I said 20%-30% hedge long…..not the whole position…its damage limitation …not instant riches out of a cock up :0)…. Good luck though buddy…you have to use your thinking brain not your fight or flight brain…trouble is last night you thought it through rationally and this morning acted on impulse….you need to think carefully before acting….

      1. By keeping your long hedge less than 33% if it crashes the short will eventually cover the loss on the long if it crashes quickly or you don’t act if it reverses….. Be careful you probably don’t want to have a long bias really…..it’s all about getting out of jail as economically as possible….

   2. For SB, I think you need to hold long positions on the day of ex-div

2. Trend is still up… Is it Dividend today or Wed ?

   1. Weds…

3. I’m short small at 70.5

   1. Added now short 74.7 still small can dump it If this pumping continues…

4. In all fairness it was carefully considered, but then so were my cock up shorts.

   Divi day always going to go up especially a 20pointer…figure get in early.

   1. Yeah ok just be careful depends what side of the bed Mr Pump got out of….I wasn’t being disrespectful about your shorts Morko it’s just the way it came out :0)…. I’ve made loads of cock ups …..I think Thomas Eddison found 10,000 ways that a light bulb didn’t work before he got it working…..I think he did it pretty quick really compared to my trading lol :0)

      1. No your right I do have amygdala issues

         I am still in shock we are a few points off 7500

   2. What went wrong is the gap at 7100-7200

5. The advantage you have holding stock is you need to hold it until today only.

6. Morko, which timeftimeframe did you enter based on?

7. Hi Icarus, I didn’t. My long entry was based on me having 8 short positions with a large divi coming up. Experience tells me that the market generally rises prior to that. Also I needed to offset my shorts to save on divi fees

   In short no science, just gut. May cost me, it’s along ways until tomorrow night 16:30

   1. No I meant the shorts. The divi is just change in comparison to the money shorts are going to make.

8. Just thinking out loud….you know what it wouldn’t surprise me if we get an unexpected dip ……

   1. Looking at 5 min Ftse chart you would expect some kind of sell off after the mornings rise…..that just shows you what’s going on..

9. Ok, it hit 7497 and I sold!!!

   Took the profit and closed out a few shorts.

   Re added at short at 97 sl 7507

   1. Nice one Morko well done…

      1. Cheers Anstel, no skill involved to be fair!

         It’s only really going I be a successful day if we get a 30-40pt drop as I will fully resolved then.

         1. Yes there is skill involved,don’t sell yourself short,you realised you were in an unfavourable position and instead of being like the rabbit in the headlights like we have all done,you acted decisively and hedged long earlier then sold for profit and used that profit to offset losses when you covered some of your losing short positions…..That’s awesome,that’s what a trader does and it’s not easy….well done …

10. The pound is weakening against dollar and oil seems to of plateaued, also gold is up which does give sign to a fall.

11. There’s 7500 and it’s not looking like it’s had enough yet..

12. Cheers Anstel

13. Well 7504 got a reaction – the only resistance level today that seems to have!

    1. Didn’t want to quit at all,maybe this dip is just for appearances I don’t know…by rights it should pull back but !!!!

       1. Its pretty comical this rise, best not to look at it rationally!

          1. Yeah you have got to laugh…it’s our mates in the boardroom smoking big Cubans and pressing the buy button for entertainment while sipping some gin and tonics….lol..:0) I reckon they must get their kicks screwing the market up and I just wonder how many spread betting company’s they own :0)

             1. Problem is, if they screw over too many people/traders then they wont have many customers left!

             2. Anyway it can’t be dropping that much yet or tmfp would be back :0)

             3. I don’t think they are bothered about customers Nick…..they have all the money in the world…they just make it up with a few noughts on some electronic balance sheet….and pump it out through the BIS to wherever it’s needed to maintain the illusion…no it’s not money they want,it’s the population to not have any money…..its control they are after …a population without the ability to sustain itself it easily controlled….

                1. Yes very true! Put much better than me! Thats why if you ever try and further yourself you are taxed to the hilt.

             4. that’s just reminded me why I really like my Dog :0)

             5. It’s called “Financial Repression”….

          2. Welcome to the bear market: -)

14. There pumping the ftse100 trend still up…

15. Dumped short ….too much BS …..going to walk the dog instead…..only small so not bothered ……wait till we get a proper market back there’s no point playing on a field that slopes this much :0) I must say they have really excelled themselves this time lol :0)

    1. Actually no I’m short again at 7513.3 it can’t go up forever….bollocks to em…:0)

       1. Finally 🙂
          7544 is the likely top.
          Stay with this short with me on the trip down to 6950 mate!

       2. And again at 509.8… Let’s have another go :0)

          1. You know what Icarus….I only started this game to try and short the market at the top :0) be fantastic if it dumped now lol :0)

             1. Not yet, market always gives a second chance to short ;-). I expect a reversal soon

             2. They must have sucked in some institutional cash by now so a dump could be on the horizon :0)…… I suppose it depends how many G and Ts they have had lol :0)….if they are on a proper bender it might go to 7600 lol :0)

                1. Given they have been on the juice for the last three weeks, they are pretty Damn high. So won’t hesitate pressing the dump button

          2. It doesn’t want to quit Icarus …….I bet they can’t even stand up now :0) where’s the Buy button….hic…..I bet there’s more money in selling bottles of Gin than shorting this at the moment :0)……

16. Well a few years back I called out the bear market start on this very forum and no-one believed it. Until…. 😉

17. Still holding shorts from last week and its looking a bit ugly

    1. Do you want to buy a bottle of Gin ? :0)

       1. I think you can see it on the 5 min……it’s being sold off and instantly being bought back and pushed higher…it makes me laugh when people who don’t trade say it’s gambling and they wouldn’t do it……what they don’t seem to realise is all their pension plans and unit trusts and investment trusts and all the share incentive schemes at various company’s ….not to mention houses ….are all gambling on what the financial button pressers do…..it’s all one big p@ss take….

          1. Tottally agree Anstel!

             I think student loans will be a huge thing in the future, I was reading that Student Loans are at around $1.2 trillion in the US – insane figures.

18. Regardless of the market doing insane things todays comments have been a great read – thanks chaps!

    I think just shorting and hoping for the drop is dangerous, unless you’re running tight stops of course and happy to make multiple entries. I’ll wait for confirmation of weakness before entry, even if it means missing out on points.

    I’ve been trying to short the market since Dec and glad I took some profit a few weeks back and closed my positions (Shorts are too stressful). Actually trading futures a bit more.

    Icarus, I’m in the same boat as you. I’ve been calling out a bear market for the past 6 months and do generally feel we’re heading towards one but of course it won’t just roll over and cave – they want to stop everyone out and have their fun first.

19. 7500 – well done Anstel! What does your crystal ball say now?

    1. It says why am I trying to short this market?

       1. Haha!

20. Hey Icarus ive got more chance of falling pregnant than the Ftse dropping :0)

    1. 🙂

    2. Closed short at a loss no point in trying to fight gravity….

       1. Trying again at 30

          1. Me too – this is just silly.

             1. ..and out for enough for a few meals – I don’t trust this ftse!

          2. To quote my shorting hero Si :0)…. TIMBER :0)

             1. Well I hope not, now that I’m out 🙂 But good luck for you! I’m still long gold.

             2. Come on let’s have it under 7500….. What’s going on I’m getting Rabid…..looks like I’m overcoming my PTSD :0) regular readers now what I mean :0)

             3. They might just be changing the barrel :0)

             4. Now there’s a novelty :0) a nice red candle :0)… Never thought I’d say that :0)

             5. Christ, would you believe it. I should have stayed short!

             6. Come on lol CRASH :0)

             7. It might.

21. Dow off 80, Dax of 50 same pattern…..FTSE down 10 and trying to rally. I can’t make sense of it.

    1. Just looking at the same… USDJPY collapsing also.

22. Looks like the guy who slept with his face on the buy button just finished his shift 🙂

    1. Bloody p@ss head :0) he’s probably unconscious by now :0)

       1. Hey Icarus :0) when’s this 6950 happening ? I just wondered if I had time to nip out for 10 mins ? :0)

          1. By the end of the week

23. Hi all,

    Update on S&P position – it has been trading like a dream.

    Short @97 @99 @01 @03 @06
    Closed 1 @98 & 1 @96

    Still short of 3 @01 @03 @06

24. Somehow I’m still in but was minus funds for a time.

    Need some bears to come out!

    1. https://youtu.be/VuRI7aSFEig :0)

       1. Well it looks like now they have it pushed up here it’s not going to drop much below 20 or the 50 sma on the 5 min…hope it does sell off though and give some of the shorts a breather….but you would think after all the effort getting it up here it’s not going to be allowed to drop yet…

25. I suppose all the folks coming home from work stuck in traffic jams will feel abit happier about going to work tomorrow when they hear on the car radio Ftse at all time highs……they will be thinking oh that’s great all my pension contributions are making me money ….if it were to crash there would be a lot of despondent workers looking to throw the towel in…it keeps all the workforce with there nose to the grindstone,blindly slaving away…

    1. Their nose….

26. Thanks Anstel….

    Icarus why is 7544 the top? Hope your right just wondered you calculated it.

    Where’s the bloody drop!

    1. Well morco, this in my view is a wave B in the wider correction. I was expecting the rally to stall at the 78.6% fib like all other indices! However it has carried on. B waves can someyimes retrace to the top I.e. 7450 and clearly in this case it has. I believe this is because of a 100 point gap we got in the market recently at 7100. Technically we are still in the correction and this ties in with the impulsive nature of this rise which is typical of a 3rd wave.

27. Given the first drop was from 7450 to 7100. I would say the minimum drop we are looking at is for 560 points from the end of wave B, hence the target around 6950. If my calculations are right then we are not far away from seeing a drop. I suspect the rise is simply because of the upcoming ex-div of 20 points, tomorrow will be the last day they need to hold stock in order to collect the dividend. I would pencil in a drop on Thursday and friday this week.
    Alternative is,we unwind the micro 4th and 5th waves which means the market will go flat from now until 24th and we see drops from 25th onwards.
    6950 is on the cards, just a waiting game now.

28. That sounds really technical Icarus…..my technical viewpoint after studying all the Ftse charts from 3 min right up to daily is….The bankers pumped it up…..and if they don’t want it too drop no amount of Elliot waves are going to bring it down in a hurry….It will come down but probably only when everyone thinks it’s set in stone on a one way trip to 8000.just like the Theresa May flash election news..

    1. I wonder if any of the bankers are called Elliot ? :0) wouldn’t surprise me !!

       1. Do you think I’m getting cynical in my old age :0)….?

    2. Yes it is. I am only calling out this is the start of the bear market because of the 5 wave correction we had on the daily signifying this is the dominant trend now. This would be followed by a 3 wave correction which we are currently witnessing. The final wave C assuming 7544 is the top will come down in 5 waves. The second aspect is the reducing slope of the tops on daily and weekly. The third is the divergence in weekly timeframe. The 4th is we are hitting the top of the weekly channel, classical TA wise. For the bear market to get in full swing we still have time. All you need to watch for is how the highs are forming and how high they are from the previous one.

       1. Tell you what, if your right your my Hero :0) and I hope you are….:0)

          1. Sell in May and go away ?…….ummmnnn …..maybe..

29. To be honest I really don’t believe in fundamentals anymore with all the artificial pupimnh that is being done. Simply from your point of view, why do you think the market will go to 8000? Agree that the markets are being pumped with borrowed money but everyone likes to bank profits, hence the market will never move in a straight line!

    1. No I don’t think it will go to 8000,,,, I just meant when everybody thinks its on firm foundations and happy to go long that’s when some bullshit media announcement comes around and it sells off destroying wealth in the process…..The Market is just a wealth transfer system for the elite bankers ,they pump it up then position themselves short then press the sell button and hey presto they get to reduce people’s ability to be independent with the funds they have saved up in their lifetime….we are all slaves to a bent system ….

       1. It’s like we go to school primary then secondary,then maybe uni ,,,,who says we have to go to school? What is a school,last time I looked it was a large group of fish? Then we get some bits of paper saying this or that qualification and we get a job in a big company…who the bankers probably own anyway,,,then we take on liabilities that are wage can support mortgage ,,car loan ,credit cards. And pay money back to the bankers that own the mortgage companies,the car manufacturers and the credit card companies owned by the bankers….its a prison and everyone thinks they are free…..its a load of b@llocks,people need to start thinking instead of going to the pub…

          1. Totally with you on that one. That’s another good reason to be short! This rally was nothing but the bankers buying to collect the dividend. There is tiny amount of ex div in June and by sep, it goes all dull from a dividend point of view. If I was a banker, would I stay invested or would I sell off? I have collected the dividends and I get to sell the inflated stock to poor mr. Joe Bloggs. What have I got to loose in a sell off?

          2. hear hear!

             1. Also, as a small company owner they load the game against us. They want everyone to be on PAYE in a big company as a worker bee. They don’t want you to have any sort of freedom, just be a wage slave and pay back most of what you own in taxes. The real rate of which is probably 60% to 80%. Income Tax, NI, VAT, council tax, car tax, corporation tax, insurance premium tax, airline tax, etc etc etc

30. There goes the ex div on Dow. Another ex div on Dow tomorrow and we go down spectacularly.

31. Hi Icarus,

    Thanks for the detail behind your predictions, I appreciated your effort in describing it.

    GL tomorrow all

32. Goodnight chaps, best of luck to all….

    1. Out of my Ftse short at 7498…… Get some sleep now…goodnight :0)

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