20th April 2017
Good morning. For a few weeks while the FTSE was at 7350 and 7450 I mentioned that a drop to 7100 was likely and it finally hit that level yesterday. Admittedly I didn’t expect it to drop there in two sessions, with the FTSE having fallen 4% now since last Tuesday! Oil slumped yesterday nearly hitting $50 per barrel which dragged the FTSE down, while cable (GBPUSD rate) hovered around the 12800 level.
FTSE 100 Outlook and Prediction
For today I am thinking that we might see a bit of a rise from the 7090 level initially, towards the 7132 level where we have some resistance on the 2 hour chart. This 7090 area is the February 2017 low.
Below 7090 there is some daily support at 7072 with the 10 day Bianca and 7062 for the area of the 23.6% Fib retracement of the rally from Brexit referendum day. If this level breaks then its likely to get even more bearish over April and we are looking at sub-7000.
If the resistance level at 7140 holds then the bears are likely to try and go for that 7075 level today while the momentum is with them. However, we are testing the bottom of the Raff channels still, Asia had a more positive session and the ASX200 had a fairly bullish start. Oil has also climbed back to $51.Cable dropped down yesterday from its highs also, and is now hitting some resistance at 12805, with 12825 above that. If that drops back a bit today then that might help the FTSE to rise.
Yes agree this critical level over 7100 must hold theres not much support below. To stage a reversal needs to get up and close over 7150. Added to longs this morning but in view of the big drop below stop losses are in operation at 7090.
Changed the time now so should display correctly. Thanks Jack.
🙂
Morning all. Still holding my long but rapidly losing patience. GBP seems might fall in a few days and may boost ftse. Living in hope atm.
Anstel, I hope you get to recover any loss swiftly, felt bad reading your post last night, I was in the same situation but decided o give it another go. No clear direction atm
Div adjustment is 3 points next week is 6 points then thats it really May-September not worth collecting.
Morning chaps, thanks for your comments Icarus, it’s a game of inches trading and I made one error last week that has cost me a hell of a lot of work….ironically the trade made me a lot of money but I held it just a little too long and it all evaporated….it’s not all bad…I had my best ever single trade in the last month of 15.1k profit…..Im under no illusions how difficult trading is and when you push you have to accept the risk…..The Market really suited me since end of Dec….but it’s changed now…..to be honest,I don’t trust it at all now, I think the God almighty crash is coming…..I still have a decent account. But I don’t trust this market at all any more… I had a great nights sleep,going to take the dog out ,and I’ll come back a bit later and see what range we have to play with……I’m just going to nibble at it for daily wages I think till I have a better idea where this market is going to get steered next….very best of luck to you all….I think we might well need as much luck as we can get soon…….down but not out :0)
French results after weekend will be a big mover.
Just another thought,I have read trading books,watched thousands of trading videos,and I have not found mention of one single succesful trader who has not endured some large losses in their careers …. It has to be experienced to learn and move forward….some are quick learners and forget quickly,while others are slower learners but when learnt it is more deeply absorbed……Icarus just reminded me of what tmfp used to say,and it is the reason I closed out and that is when we are trading from hope,we have made a mistake but hoping it will reverse….the good thing about closing your losing position is you can look at it from a neutral perspective,and say to yourself,I can put my original position straight back on for a cost of 1 point spread…….is it now the right trade? In my case it’s a definite No…at the moment……but it’s a really good way to think about it…
That’s exactly my thoughts when I have a loss on a similar scale as you did yesterday. The thing is, the more it happened the more it made realise that I was actually nursing a winning trade in reverse. Basically I was nursing a winning trade for the market but not myself. And when I could not take it no more I closed it at the peak (or generally at a peak where my winning trade would have been closed) of a loss, because it happens (you cannot lose no more or had enough with emotions). Yes, you can breathe then better and evaluate what went wrong, but in reality “they had you”…
Basically it all comes to stops. They are the only saviours that do not allow this “winning in reverse” to happen. They are pain in the b..tt cos they remind that you were wrong but we don’t like to admit it. Oh we don’t like it so much that we take another trade to the same direction just to prove the market wrong!!!
There’s a lot to talk about it but I will only point out the emotion that eats me the most after a losing trade like that. It is one of those: hurt, insult, offense (I don’t know which of them is closest by meaning here). I feel betrayed and offended by the market, basically hurt by market. I until now I still don’t know how to cope with this feeling when it comes. And so it affects my stop losses setting.
Hi Jack….do you know something ,it’s quite interesting,when I started trading 3 and a half yrs ago when I made a loss it really hurt and you could see it on my face….now if I win or lose I don’t really feel it as much…..if I win I actually get more scared of losing and when I lose I regard it as a trading lesson that I have paid for….Placements of stops are an interesting point of debate ….place them too tight and we will lose over and over again but finding the point where you are wrong is difficult….the market will take stops out of that I’m sure ……I think from my experience the most important thing in trading is to know when to step down……..I remember that scene in The Magnificent Severn when Steve McQueen and Yul Brinner handed over their guns to the Bandit character……they were asked later by someone why they gave their guns up………Steve McQueen said “it seemed like a good idea at the time”…… Think I will have a nice cup of tea,best of luck Jack :0)
“Thumbs up” Agree with you on that. I hope I will learn to control my “hurting” emotion soon.
I get that fear of losing after a good win too. It’s all emotions, you can’t get rid of them, but we can learn to ignore them.
There are no successful traders.
Name one. Show me his money.
There are only successful investors.
There is however one extremely big winner in the trading game – the SB company.
Now and again the papers run stories on some ^trader^ , often of Nigerian origin, who just crashed his Lambo or is buying 5K bottles of Cristal in some poxy nightclub. Closer examination usually reveals a conman trying to sell a ^course^ for 20K or a drug-dealer laundering cash in a nightclub he actually owns. The rest are wasters or fantasists living with their Mummies. Know this.
Well your comments are all noted CM…it’s not possibly for me to actually prove how much a succesful trader can make, or as you say if they actually exist…However I believe that they do…..Larry Williams by all accounts did well….he taught his daughter Michelle Williams by all accounts and she won a trading competion under the age of 16…I have no proof though……Tom Hougaard Ed Seykota,Linda Bradford Raschke,Francis Hunt I like ,he seems like he’s fully aware of what is involved….Then if you read the Market Wizard books, on the face of it there appears to be traders who can win against the odds……if I didn’t think it was possible I would stop…..but I do believe there is an edge to be taken but like anything that requires a very fine line to be succesful it takes time and experience….i wish you all the best in whatever approach you think you can profit from…..whatever approach though whether it’s day trading,swing trading,or investing one thing it all has in common is its the same markets and trading vehicles just a different approach….horses for courses I think….good luck….
Tom Hougaard is a self-confessed failure. At least he admits it. The rest make money selling books and courses, they dont make a living trading markets. Hedge fund managers are rarely invested in their own funds and when they make millions from other peoples risk-taking (their clients), the money is invested in property and mutual funds. Beware self – publicists selling market secrets. If they had a successful edge, they certainly wouldnt share it with you. That is self-evident.
Anyway, rant over, I dont like to see people buying a one-way ticket to Loserville.
Oh thanks CM I thought Tom Hougaard had done really well…my mistake and thanks for bringing it to my attention….good luck buddy….
I just wondered CM? Do you or did you work at Cityindex…..I think Tom Hougaard was there for a while?
I read an interview years ago. He had been fired from yet another job. Stated that without a regular income to back up his bets he couldnt hack spread-betting. While i was searching for that interview I found he offers courses at 2.5K with ^free^ accommodation. Must be alot of mugs out there. None of these peple offer to show you a verifiable trading account. Enough said.
These are my favourite plays. Days like today. The market is right on support dating from 2nd Feb @ 7088. It is well known that 70% of time markets trade ranges ie they do not trend. The institutions will be desperate to buy close to the bottom of the range. You can almost smell the anxiety and greed as they edge in positions here. The stops under 7088 really ought to be taken out before we go higher so have changed mine to 7080.
Oh that was nice :0) just extracted two points profit from the Ftse :0)
Ok ive made my wage for tday now……let’s see where this goes next….
Afternoon all,
Just my two penneth on where we could go here. I expect Carneys speech will be pound negative, it’s been far too resilient given the nature of the news that caused the spike. So I expect that in about an hours time we’ll see a sizeable spike in the FTSE.
Sudden surge on Dow, Dax seems to me not responding – great. FTSE doesn’t know what to do. My shorts 12034 av for a scalp nearly got there in the end. Off now too.
Tomorrow is a Prince day, no trading for me.
What will make ftse move? Dow move by 180 points didn’t cause a flutter out of hours even!
Hi Icarus,yes it struggling to better 7125 at the moment…cable at 1.2810 isn’t helping but it seems to have a more stable feel about it to me…I’m long again and have nibbled away tday quite nicely…:0)
It wouldn’t surprise me if Ftse makes some gains when you least expect it….Mr Market doesn’t want you to make money so it plays around a little with your emotions in my opinion :0)
Just a moment in space a little loss on this particular stretch of time.
Nothing was able to stop it or change the destiny.
At this moment of time off it goes.
Well that didn’t work out very well! I suspect tomorrow will be the day when we get a more substantial upmove…. every other market has shot up today short covering before the French elections, you can bet your life Mr Market knows that nobody will be taking positions tomorrow… with no new shorts the required short covering will make for an amplified move and cable is looking very toppy, technically at least
+1^^^^^^ :0)
Hi anstel, just when you least expect it. I suppose most people will be tired of the tight range by now. 280 would be a good target to achieve
Hi Icarus,well I’m pulling an all nighter,I think we may well see 7150 soon,I’m not sure what it will do there but this price action looks favourable to me……its 2.12 am Asia open has past so barring any geo political stuff between now and the open at 8 am I think we will go up…good luck mate…:0)