6849 support; 6867;6885,6898 resistance

Good morning. Well NFP was better than expected so after that initial dip yesterday morning (just missing my ideal entry at 6815 by 1 point, d’oh), it kept going all the way to the 6852 where it did stall. Dipped a little then broke through but didn’t exceed 6865. Its all very bullish still and a move above 6867 should see the 6900 level today. The US is closed today and in more normal conditions the rest of the world would tread water, but last year the FTSE had a 200 point range on 4th July (upwards)! Repeat of that and hello 7000!

Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Asian stocks rose, with the regional index posting its longest run of weekly gains since 2012, while bond risk fell as U.S. jobs growth bolstered the outlook for the world’s largest economy. Malaysia’s ringgit strengthened as copper headed for its biggest weekly jump since September.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index increased 0.4 percent by 1:40 p.m. inTokyo, adding 1.7 percent in its steepest weekly climb in three months. Japan’s Topix (TPX) index was up 0.5 percent. Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU) futures were little changed after the gaugetopped 17,000 for the first time before today’s U.S. holiday. Asian bond riskfell a third day and Indonesia’s rupiah surged as a candidate in next week’s presidential vote flagged plans to let foreigners buy apartments.

Stocks are climbing after growth in U.S. payrolls exceeded economists’ estimates and the jobless rate sank to an almost six-year low, spurring optimism the global economy will accelerate. European Central Bank chief Mario Draghi said yesterday borrowing costs will stay near zero for an extended period after the introduction of unprecedented stimulus in June. Malaysian trade data is due for release today.

“The jobs report was a positive surprise and it confirmed the ongoing recovery in the U.S. labor market,” Masaaki Yamaguchi, an equity markets strategist at Nomura Holdings Inc., Japan’s biggest brokerage by market value, said by phone. “That’s adding a tailwind to the market.”

NFP
U.S. employers added 288,000 workers to nonfarm payrolls in June, following a 224,000 increase in May that was bigger than previously estimated and beating the median economist projection for an advance of 215,000. A 1.39 million increase in employment over the past six months was the largest since early 2006, while the unemployment rate fell to 6.1 percent, the lowest level since September 2008.

Bulls Relieved
The data prompted economists at banks such as JPMorgan Chase & Co. to move up estimates for when the Federal Reserve will raise its benchmark interest rate for the first time since 2006.

“There was relief for the economic bulls in the U.S.,” Cameron Bagrie, chief economist in Wellington at ANZ Bank New Zealand Ltd., wrote in a client note today. “We can expect debate at the Fed Open Market Committee on the appropriate settings for monetary policy to intensify, though we suspect the Fed will be slow to change its guidance and any shifts will be in a gradual fashion.”

China Stocks
Chinese equities headed for a second straight weekly advance on signs the economy is improving.

The Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) has climbed 1 percent this week after data showed China’s manufacturing expanded in June at the fastest pace this year and a services index increased to the highest level since March 2013. The gauge fell 0.3 percent at the 11:30 a.m. local-time break today.

FTSE Outlook

FTSE 100 Forecast
FTSE 100 Forecast

6867 is the line in the sand initially, and the bulls need to break that to test 6900. I mentioned earlier this week that if they got above 6800 then we were more than likely to see 6900, so I expect we will break this resistance today, though 6885 which is the most recent high is likely to offer a bit of a fight initially, and 6885 is also the top of the Bianca 10 day. Worth a scalp short there I feel. Above 6900 we have 6950 then 7050! Will today be a 200 point day like last year?

Looking at the Raff channels we also have the 20 day at 6880 and the 10 day at 6900, so while the bullish momentum is strong, there are a few hurdles in the way, as well as a rather large PRT resistance line at 6877 on the 30 minute chart.

The daily pivot is 6849 today so I expect that to offer support on any dip this morning. The all time high for the FTSE isn’t far away now at 6937, so a break of that will certainly generate some good press for the government as its happened on their watch.

57 Comments

  2. A good place to enter should be 6841. The indicators are exiting overbought

  3. Well once again the bookmakers aren’t offering fixed odds on the daily markets. So I think we are going to see another day of steady rising!

  5. It’s yet showing strengthens but patience is the name of the game… you just need to wait for that pullback. It only rested for one day, since 6700.

  8. Just added to my short yesterday at 66 will sell both at 47 ish screwed up with 51 short but still hold

    1. If I were you, would had place at least 20 point gap before each order. 6871 would be the minimum level to enter again short

    1. I expected more buying than this at 12 or maybe it’s like Carlos said a day of steady rising (perhaps finish 15 or 20 points up for the day). I had an average short position of 6864.8 so hopefully this will come good and with no buying at lunchtime maybe it will. Come on DOWN DOWN DOWN!

  11. Mine is around there too. Thought I’d been stopped out but haven’t…I think it reached around 71. I’m heavily short on this too so hopefully it will work out.

  13. Every thing in 4hr is pointing to a drop my macd is about to punch out the top of my phone ….! Hope it materialises

      1. Quick 2 or 3 point rise to around 70 just now then almost instant fall back showing poor support there?

  17. My short as hit breakeven twice now. I think we’ll see a sell off this afternoon (fingers crossed)

    1. I know to be honest I considered taking breakeven twice now and think I even saw half a point profit at one point lol

  20. Back again — Seems we’re going nowhere without the US lead — all movement since 08:00 within a 15 pt. range. 🙁

  28. We are for a drop in next days. 4 hour is over speeding too much for FTSE. It rarely goes here. Something is wrong

      1. if it reaches there, sure. If not…then my buy on deep is the only trade for now

Comments are closed.