6840 to break? Possibly 6860 level to be hit. Support around 6825

Good morning. Fairly decent shorts off the resistance levels yesterday at 6830 and 6840, though neither turned into a runner for a dip to the pivot so wasn’t able to gain the max from them, still, taking profit at 20 or so then setting the stop to break-even does mean you bank some and then make the trade risk free, which is always a good thing! We had Draghi and Yellen both talking yesterday which lead to quite a bit of chop, with Draghi announcing further ECB stimulus in June is an option. So not quite out of the woods yet then if thats still on the table!

There is some UK news out at 09:30 this morning which will lead to a bit of choppiness as its around contraction, manufacturing and production.

Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Most Asian stocks rose as Macau casino operators rebounded in Hong Kong and Canon Inc. said it would buy back shares, outweighing slumps for Great Wall Motor Co. and Wilmar International Ltd.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 0.3 percent to 138.07 as of 10:22 a.m. in Hong Kong, paring its drop this week to 0.3 percent. Five shares rose for every two that fell. The region’s largest equity markets, Hong Kong and Japan, have slumped the most of 24 developed markets tracked by Bloomberg this year amid concern Chinese economic growth is slowing and as the yen strengthened.

“Investors are focusing on getting a return of their capital,” Evan Lucas, a market strategist inMelbourne at IG Ltd., said by phone. “There’s no doubt global markets are starting to position themselves for a shift away from high growth into defensive sectors.”

Regional Gauges
Japan’s Topix index gained 0.8 percent, with more than 300 of the gauge’s constituents due to report earnings today. South Korea’s Kospi index rose 0.2 percent after the central bank left its benchmark interest rate at 2.5 percent for a 12th straight month.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index lost 0.3 percent, dragged lower by Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd., trading without the right to the current dividend.

Envestra Ltd. surged 16 percent to A$1.3325 after billionaire Li Ka-shing’s Cheung Kong Group joined the battle for the Australian natural-gas distributor with a cash bid that values the firm at A$2.4 billion ($2.3 billion).

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index (HSI) added 0.2 percent, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index of mainland shares traded in the city lost 0.2 percent. The Shanghai Composite Index declined 0.1 percent. Taiwan’s Taiex index slipped 0.3 percent. New Zealand’s NZX 50 Index dropped 0.1 percent, and Singapore’s Straits Times Index was little changed.

US Futures
Futures on the S&P 500 declined 0.1 percent today. The U.S. equities benchmark index yesterday lost 0.1 percent, with most shares falling, as technology shares erased a rally to sell off for a third straight day.

FTSE Outlook

FTSE 100 Prediction
FTSE 100 Prediction

We are pretty much on the pivot from live charts for today as I write this, being 6825. Yesterdays resistance was 6840, and that would likely cause bit of a stumble today if it reaches there again, with 6850 after that. There is a channel on the 10minute chart in play, the bottom of which is as this 6820 area, the top at 6837ish. I therefore expect an early bit of bull to the 6840 level. Going back to the 30 minute chart the next resistance is 6866 then we have the top of the Bianca channels in play, being around the 6900 area. If we start testing those levels we are not far off the all time highs at 6930. Imagine the headlines if we were to (a) break that level and (b) reach 7000. The media would be in a frenzy and trying to make everyone feel good about the economy. Shame its on just dodgy foundations having been pumped up with money and low interest rates. Anyway……

As its Friday today I won’t be trading too much, however a short of the resistance level at 6861 could be good if it gets there. To be frank the FTSE looks stronger than the S&P and Dax at the moment, the former which failed to break 1888 again.

55 Comments

  2. Thanks Nick. I always like to read the “British morning paper”. Is always very interesting…very British indeed…like the BBC

  3. DAX — Negative trend since 08:00, but choppy within a narrow range – difficult! It will come to life as soon as I go for a sandwich – guaranteed!

  5. Senu I am concerned that the FTSE was forced down below the pivot just before open and has struggled all morning and with shooting stars on the Dow and s&p last night I fear we are in for a pull back.

    1. Earlier, I was expecting a ride to pivot, but not feeling well now 🙁 do u still have ur long?

  6. Im thinking of closing my long as it is struggling and looks like it’s on the edge. What do you guys think? Can you see a big drop before any rise?

  8. However now Ftse is rising again so just going to wait and see. Stop is up to break even

  9. Yes I am still long can’t help but feel that gap needs to be filled and it was such a positive close up yesterday

  10. Hi. Has anybody used Iron FX? They are offering a 60% bonus and I was tempted?

    Thanks Nick

  14. Well stuck in a tight range of 10 points all morning break out this afternoon up or down anyone’s guess I am going long though.

  19. Well on one hand it has been, but there again the days where it was just going up have stopped and its had several failed attempts to hold 6840 for a week now. So I now have a reasonable sized short that I am looking to hold for a couple of weeks unless it really takes off up. I dont mind holding it this weekend as cant see Putin doing anything helpful – and if he kicks something off then it could easily gap down like it did a few weeks ago and strangely when the FTSE was also around 6810

  20. Don’t want to say it invade it breaks but 6809 is S1 and seems to be holding do hopefully a break up soon.
    Seems to be consolidating between 6809-6820

  21. Next big break up im closing my long then I may take a leaf out of Davros book and sit on a short

  22. Belly 200 ema holding this up very well on the 30min only way is up from here. AIMHO

  23. Tend to agree Marco — price and LinReg 20 motoring above LinReg 100, which is on the up. Also, plenty of scope within current channel for a move towards 6900. MACD Dif declining but FTSE rather flat — a bullish divergence? Maybe PMS could set me straight? 😉

  27. Choppy agian. Anyone make profit. I really need to get in the game. Loss a lots of money. I new only trading last two year loss a lots. Please could some one advice how to play. Like buy the dip? I still short ftse at 6620 n short Dow 16130. Massive loss. When will ftse n Dow drop? Howard make profit. I can afford to loss any more. Please guide n teach…..

    1. I know it’s a pain, everybody are hoping for a drop. It is hard to give any advice on the strategy. Everybody are using different. We are all trying to write the right strategy for yourself. I’ve been trying to write what I do during a year now. And although I am pretty sure what the overall strategy is, I still cannot finalize it. I keep changing, adding, getting rid of some clutter parts. It is hard.
      Every time when I see already happened scenario I can instantly see my entries and exits. But then, everybody would, but I know why I would enter there.
      Advice is to start working towards writing your strategy down and follow it. Make snapshots of charts and maybe record videos with your analyzing the charts while looking at it. It helps. This is how I see it. Otherwise one day you do one thing, another day another and there’s no consistency.

    2. The trouble with the FTSE and other indices is that they enjoy multi-dimensional random walks. Regularity is a snare for the innocent. 🙂

  28. Any good or bad new for uk or USA ?
    Anyone short ftse n Dow?
    What is yr though for this week? Any data?

  30. Belly went short at 31 first thing and closed at pivot for +10. Waiting now to see if it bounces off pivot or goes for 6810 which is 200ema on 30min

  39. i am long ftse at 6838. It look like ftse is dropping?
    Anyone know ftse long to what level 6860 based on last week friday>?

  40. Anyone going long at the these levels is mad better too wait for a lower level entry…

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