Good morning. Well it was bulls one, bears nil yesterday. We got the dip to the pivot early on instead and then a steady rise all day, slight pause at the 6850 to pick up a few for the short but the rest of that trade then got stopped out. We have a 15.6 divi being applied to the FTSE today as well so bear that in mind if you are holding a position at the close. Somewhat out of kilter gold rose a lot yesterday as well as the indices, so are we seeing the last bullish hurrah on equites? Talk has resumed about interest rate rises – think we will see them in Q4 or Q1 2015, even just 25bps. They won’t put them up much before the election but will just need to use them to control the economy which is doing better (so say) than almost everyone else! All the bears need is the biggest bear sign of them all – the BBC TV news to start running headlines on the FTSE 100 at record highs or some such and then it will be downhill for a while!
Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Asian stocks rose, with the regional benchmark gauge on course for its biggest increase in seven weeks, as investors weighed earnings and after U.S. equity indexes climbed to records.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 1 percent to 139.19 as of 1 p.m. in Tokyo, heading for the steepest advance since March 24, as all of its 10 industry groups rose. U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen is due to speak May 15 after tempering concern last week that an improving economy will drive interest rates higher.
“Rates are locked in a low level and we don’t have any scares in terms of inflation and any factor that’s going to require the Fed to taper a lot quicker than they stated,” said Tim Schroeders, a portfolio manager who helps oversee $1 billion in equities at Pengana Capital Ltd. in Melbourne. “The market is comfortable with that at this stage.”
Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose less than 0.1 today. The S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average both rallied to records yesterday as Internet and small-cap shares increased amid deals activity that boosted confidence in the world’s biggest economy.
Regional Gauges
Japan’s Topix (TPX) index jumped 1.7 percent and South Korea’s Kospi index rose 1.1 percent. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index advanced 0.7 percent, while New Zealand’s NZX 50 Index added 0.6 percent. Taiwan’s Taiex index rose 0.2 percent. Markets in Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand and Bangladesh are closed for a holiday.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index advanced 0.3 percent after jumping the most in seven weeks yesterday on optimism state reforms will boost equity markets. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index of mainland companies added 0.2 percent. The Shanghai Composite Index slid 0.1 percent. Data on China retail sales and industrial output are due today.
China’s broadest measure of new credit fell last month as authorities extended their campaign to tame financial dangers even as construction and manufacturing data point to risks that the economy’s slowdown will worsen. Aggregate financing was 1.55 trillion yuan ($248 billion) in April, the People’s Bank of China said yesterday in Beijing, compared with 2.07 trillion yuan in March.
Among companies on the Asian gauge that reported quarterly results since April 1 and for which Bloomberg had estimates, 53 percent beat earnings expectations as of yesterday, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
The Asia-Pacific gauge traded at 12.6 times estimated earnings as of yesterday, compared with 16.1 for the S&P 500 and 15.2 for the Stoxx Europe 600 Index, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
FTSE Outlook
Well it certainly feels like the indices are all getting very excited and the party is going to end soon. More and more headlines about record highs and so on are usually a warning sign (look at when Apple hit $700, gold nearly got $2000, etc etc) – those levels made mainstream headlines and over the next few weeks/months generally halved! Anyway, the FTSE looks like it might well reach the 6900 area where we have R3 and also the 10 day Bianca channel – so a good area to look at shorts, but reaching that hinges on whether the bulls can keep the momentum going to break through this 6875 area.
Today sees a 15.6 divi as well so we may get some divi hunters at the close for a little run up around 16:00 to 16:30.
Todays pivot is 6839 with 6823 support below that, then 6811.
The S&P is also nearly at a fairly key round number of 1900 so likely to see a little bit of bear around here (maybe 1901 to be little more exact).
We have a fairly narrow, and slightly weak 30 minute channel in play, but i think we might see a dip first thing from this 6875 area, possibly only as far as the bottom of that channel and the coral area, before bouncing. If that area doesn’t hold then the pivot at 6840 might well do.
My 2 favoured trades today would be shorts at 6875 and 6900.
Added some more too my Dax short at 9780
With the big div today on the ftse can’t see it dropping to much today unless we have some major bad news
what div today on ftse?
15.6 jack
ooo, that’s big
Think today gonna for a daytrade, buying any decent dip in FTSE
U mean dip to 6840?
Anyone going long here?
Ftse dropping but need this Dax to take a hit 🙁
Ftse seem too struggle in the morning until America come online then it’s away again….
Long @ 48, will it go 6900 ?!
long booked 🙂
Where is Hashmash??
smokingaces – hashmash is here, every now and then, just extremely busy with PhD and my business on the side.
I HAVE BEEN TRADING – i have closed my longtoday at 6860 and now on sideline again, indicator has shown some weakness today…i really really do think either there will be a significant pullback or a total reverse in trend soon…in the meantime i will stay on the sideline until i see my indicator come back into strong bulls (i mean currently it is strong bulls but did drop 6.5% in strength)…also stoch and rsi is maxed out in nearly all time frames which is scary :).
GL
Not before retail sales 13:30, unless it trigers 6817 😀
Marco, have u boooked ur shorts? or still holding? belly, any trade so far? I am thinking to short here
Short @ 60
Should have held my long 🙁 , short stopped
Senu did you have a tight stop
Not tight stop, but I didn’t want to hold it during data time
Been a bit busy today so had a short this morning between 10-12 that nicked me around 20 points been out since. What direction is it heading now?
Senu my short this morning got stopped out onthe vicious pullback from 6847 to 6865. Currently short from 6862
PMS you waiting to long at 6817
ok guys, I am not doing anything till dow opens.
Miss on retail sales and market still won’t go down!!
Hi Marco
Have an order there, yes.
thanks that would mean you expecting a pull back short term
Long @ 54 (small)
Will FTSE close above 6870 today ?
This would mean that this market is BREAKING that ascending triangle morphing since May last year.
Ofc will need a test of that possible break in next days
marco, with a high divi, quiet diiffcult for a dip today. even if there is a dip, it will follow with a good up move like in the morning. ur comments are welcom
though i am not convinced to go long with my usual stake
this ftse looking monstrous!! I am holding my short from last week @6790..any idea folks, when it gona drop?! RSI showing overbought condition but still its climbing! why people throwing their money so madly? just for a healdline?
Isaac market will want to catch ever mug before it finally drops, but at what level they decide this who knows
madness!! nothing “waw” in uk economy..on top of that there is a possibility of early rate hike..cant understand the share market price action..i am afraid may be a massive pull back coming!
smokingaces, u still holding short in dax?
slow grinding up. closed my long for 10 pts. anyone long for divi hunt?
still holding a long frm 54..will keep it untill close
Yes Senu mate have added a little on the way up
Oh. I see you are adding from 9670 onwards. Hope it falls
Oh, massive rise on Dow: 15 points. dooh. 0 points today on one pointless short trade on Dow.
Still holding a long on FTSE went in at 48.
I was waiting for that level to go long again 🙁 missed it
im on sidelines – but my gut feeling is that this maybe the turning point for ftse.
Wont take positions until my strat tells me to
which way hashmash? down? i like your indicators,please keep posting 🙂
Will this drop go to 50, i have an order there 🙁
Hoping divi hunters push this up before 4.30
@PMS closed above 6870
You bet. At least FTSE is going to test 6900. Going long in the next opportunity
PMS, do u have any levels in mind?
well, if I see 6858, will go long. Hope after 22:00, so I will not pay interest…
marco, do u still have shorts?
Javed : Always appreciate ur long term view on the market …
If U r around I know u went swing short at 6800 u still holding/added to tht short ??? my email is scott4883@gmail.com
many thx
Cheers Scott
Guys, I still have my yesterday’s short open @ 6842. Any chance FTSE will go that level ? Thanks
Can’t see that happening today Senu seem the market wants 6900
yes. done a mistake, should have closed in the morning.
Still in my long
If we do see 6900 today do you think it will push through or bounce dramatically?
Senu I still have a short too mate on ftse
I’m struggling to work out why my sep qtr trade short has lost its correlation to the cash price. Divi Related but I do not get it. I seem to be 15 points worse off than earlier this afternoon. Anyone else seen this?
Well closed my ftse short at 6880 not getting hit for those big div bet the f@@ker go down tomorrow now!!
6880 ?
Did not get there yet
What are you going on about pm I closed a short at a loss at 6880… It now at 6883
You trading FTSE ?
I did not see that prices in my plataforma. It’s still well below those levels
Not on IG it isn’t! Hence my query above. My sept qtr trade has stayed the same but the ftse is now at 6867 cash
Still cannot understand what are you talking about…sorry. FTSE afterhours is still well below the daily highs at 6878.
Looking to buy after 22:00 or tomorrow after the open at 8:30
It depends which platform you are on I guess. I haven’t seen above 6872 on the ftse cash either. On the cash the ftse does drop 15.6 today after close but you would get that money taken from your equity if you were short. That is why my quarterly bet hasn’t moved.
Senu yes still short hoping to close some point this evening with some profit although if I do can’t see it being much as seems to have held up very well
Maxing out on my short now.
I am cautious bullish atm…
Strat still showing strong bears… but i think market will turn very quickly… only thing reason i can see that can cuase a drop is russia tension…maybe down to 6725ish n then back up.
Sorry i mean strat still showin strong bulls 🙂
Morning all, whats the story today then?
Is that it then, one headline about 14 year highs and the bulls give up!?
Starting to look like it
FTSE/4 hrs flat at this level – growth has fallen to zero and price below LinReg 100 – LinReg 20 just peaking. 6900 requires the indicator lines to turn green and blue. At the moment they are both red. So weaker momentum and a pause at least, for the moment!
http://i1348.photobucket.com/albums/p736/jmca01/FTSE100DFB_zps5e30dfef.png
Marco. I’m guessing your short at the moment?
Senu, your quiet this morning?
just woke up and my alert to buy below 6860 was activated. Did I missed again opportunity to buy ? Yesterday, the low was 6846 at this hour +-.
His 6854 the low of the day ?
Did not liked the US close. So, I was more relax to buy at lower levels…
Hoping for a bigger pullback this afternoon, to alleviate the RSI velocimeter 😀