6832, 6823 support, 6857, 6880 resistance

Good morning. Yesterdays long didn’t work, with that sharp drop at the open hitting the stops pretty soon after the long order took. It did bounce back though and there are still resistance levels around the 6860/6880 areas. We are getting lower lows with each drive down by the bears so it might only be a matter of time now till 6800 breaks. 6860 looks important at the moment though and if prices hold above that today then we might not get the drop for a little while. The bottom of the Raff channels are what held it again yesterday (10 day as opposed to 20 day) and have done so on a couple of tests now.

Bull Tuesday today with a 5.4 divi, but more importantly the 30 minute chart looks alright for a bit more upside (is that famous last words?). Todays pivot is 6837 so could be initial support on any opening dip.

Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Asian stocks swung between gains and losses as information technology companies climbed and materials shares led declines.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was little changed at 139.39 as of 12:21 p.m. in Tokyo after falling 0.2 percent and rising less than 0.1 percent. Thailand’s army imposed martial law nationwide after months of political turmoil that brought down an elected government and tipped the economy into a contraction.

“The market lacks catalysts,” said Junya Naruse, chief strategist at Daiwa Securities Group Inc., Japan’s second-largest brokerage. The situation in Thailand “doesn’t impose much of a geopolitical risk, but it still weighs on the market when it doesn’t have other catalysts.”

Japan’s Topix (TPX) index rose 0.6 percent, rebounding from a one-month low. The Bank of Japan starts a two-day policy meeting today. South Korea’s Kospi index lost 0.4 percent.Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index gained 0.1 percent, and New Zealand’s NZX 50 Index slipped 0.6 percent.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index climbed 0.6 percent. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index of mainland companies traded in the city rose 0.1 percent. The Shanghai Composite Index added 0.2 percent, while Taiwan’s Taiex index advanced 0.1 percent.

Singapore’s Straits Times Index fell 0.1 percent after the nation’s gross domestic product expanded an annualized 2.3 percent in the three months through March from the previous quarter, when it climbed a revised 6.9 percent, the trade ministry said in a statement today.

US
Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index were little changed today. The measure added 0.4 percent yesterday as Internet and small-cap shares extended a rebound. About 4.9 billion shares changed hands on U.S. exchanges, the second-lowest level of the year.

“The U.S. markets experienced one of the quietest trading sessions of 2014,” Evan Lucas, Melbourne-based market strategist at IG Ltd., said in an e-mail. “Risk assets saw light trade as a chance to bounce off the lows seen last week, but volume throughout the market suggests the bears were resting, rather than a conviction buy move.”

FTSE Outlook

FTSE Prediction
FTSE Prediction

I was a bit too optimistic yesterday and that initial move down through the supports only found a bottom at the 10 day Raff before bouncing back. Unfortunately the lower short order just missed – one of those days! Resistance is still 6857 today with immediate support at the daily pivot 6837. Above 6857 the other resistances aren’t actually that far away – 6863, 6867, 6883 being the closest and main ones. We do also have the 10 day Bianca channel at 6911. Support on the 10 day is 6832 – around the pivot level also. Yesterdays rise was on quite low volume so I am still wary of being too heavy long, and would prefer bigger shorts off the resistance levels at the moment, but think that 6835 area might hold, with a stop just below the 6828 area, as if that level breaks it suggests that 36804 is likely to be tested again (and if the lower lows continue, maybe broken this time)

In the bulls favour there is a rising channel on the 30minute chart with support at 6845 for today. The 2 main levels I am going to watch for today are a long off the 6835 area, and a short off the 6868 area.

56 Comments

  2. Oh, wow, FTSE is back to where it started yesterday. Will it actually survive this time without breaking? It was a good move for me to close my long on Dow however I might have waited for the final spike. Dow actually didn’t drop that much as FTSE has done at the moment however on Daily chart Dow looks more bearish than FTSE.
    I will look for shorts now but will not underestimate the power of sudden spikes.

  3. By the way, does anybody know – Is there any divi ever on Dow or Dax, or it is only for FTSE? And how to find out about the next adjustment on Dow? Reuters didn’t show anything when I looked for: “Dow Jones (Wall Street Daily) divi adjustment”.

  12. Thinking we might test 6800 level shortly, if it breaks we’re on our way to 6600 in my opinion. Should rally from there though.

    1. cant keep seeing such lows after every move up – we are already nearly 1/2 way through journey this year and need to see some very good highs before any retracement – all the economies doing quiet well, earning reports are well – but there are tensions in ukraine and russia…
      To me charts are also showing a uptrend – my indicator has dropped in bullishness a bit – but im thinking its due to the pullback which was neccesary as charts were quiet full up and needed to make some room

      1. Hash – I’m seeing – The 4 Hr chart ftse has now three low highs & over extened against the averages (200 DMA (6723)) – my bias would be to Short rallies. RDSB has been the only thing keeping me afloat at the moment & there’s a big gap in this price between 2425 & 2500. Every other thing I’ve been buying has been losing ground even HWDN nice bounce then lower…

  15. Semi closed long fir +6 and gone short as I see this heading to 6780 before any bounce

    1. Hi Ahwab, I see if it didn’t close above 450 today, I will take positional short. btw do u still have that short in S&P?

  28. Hi Senu
    Wait till US close.
    The SPX is in a very tight range, it needs some catalyst to break that upper level.
    Fed. Plosser came out with rate hike bull**, nothing new, as I was looking at Twitter right now.

  29. Tight range between 50 ma at 1868 and the upper resistance line right now at 1886-87

  31. Are you thinking that S&P 500 will rise before close PMS? 1 hr. view shows LinReg 20 with negative gradient and price below latter and LinReg 100. Smoothed stochastic has fallen from > 80 in the early hours today to ≈ 20 now, and pointing down. Heading for < 1865? 🙂

  33. Maybe not. This was a very strong sell. We may have a follow at open tomorrow and a bounce in afternoon to catch up the above resistance line again.

  35. Ok, full on Bear now, I think we properly broke out of any range or channels, so downtime. Not expecting big drop, maybe 6600 target for now before I will consider the next swing 🙂

    Gl all.

    Ps: already a good few points up, so smiling again…lol

  36. i closed long at like 2point profit lol..
    im looking to re-long at 6720ish – i see major support there

  38. Not at all. Still good oportunities.
    You just need to look at the speedmeter (RSI) and buy the dips.

  39. Havies

    I’m with you….looking at an initial target of 6650 and think we will get there before the end of June. Possibly 6550 come end of July.
    In the short term I think hashmash is right….there will be follow up tomorrow and maybe Friday morning before a bounce in the afternoon. 6720 looks a decent level to go long for those with shorter timeframes.

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