A bit frustrating to be honest yesterday; a slow trending down day in the end with the bulls failing to break that 6876 resistance at the start, and the long order taking, rising, then getting stopped out. Since the various all time highs last week in the US its looked a little jittery, and we have earnings season starting once again with Alcoa later. Todays FTSE dividend is 1.1
Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Gold fell as investors weighed the outlook for U.S. interest-rate policy, while nickel extended declines to a third day and corn futures rose from the lowest since 2010.Asia’s benchmark stock index was little changed near a six-year high and Malaysia’s ringgit strengthend.
Gold fell 0.2 percent by 1:36 p.m. in Tokyo. Nickel slipped 0.4 percent as some investors deemed supply sufficient for short-term needs. Corn rose 0.2 percent. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index lost less than 0.1 percent while Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures fell 0.1 percent. Jakarta’s main stock gauge rallied before a presidential elections tomorrow. The ringgit climbed 0.3 percent amid speculation the central bank will raise rates this week.
The U.S. will sell $27 billion of three-year Treasuries today as investors seek clues as to the timing of interest-rate increases in the world’s largest economy. Data on American consumer credit is due today, along with reports on German trade and U.K. industrial output, while the Federal Reserve will publish minutes of its June meeting tomorrow. Japan posted a larger-than-estimated current-account surplus for May today, with China to issue inflation reports tomorrow.
“Markets are worried because the thing that keeps them going up is Fed policy,” Komal Sri-Kumar, the Santa Monica, California-based founder and president of Sri-Kumar Global Strategies Inc. said in a Bloomberg TV interview. “If they think the rate increase is going to come faster than they previously thought, stock markets react adversely to it. You don’t have any fundamental strength overall in the U.S. economy. The stock market is going to correct sometime in the next few months.”
U.S. Earnings
Three rounds of monetary stimulus from the Fed and better than-forecast corporate earnings have driven the S&P 500 up more than 190 percent from a low reached in March 2009. The S&P 500 is trading at 16.7 times the projected earnings of its members, above the five-year average valuation of 14.3.
Alcoa Inc. (AA) unofficially opens the second-quarter U.S. earnings-reporting season today. Profit at companies in the S&P 500 increased 5 percent in the three months through June, estimates compiled by Bloomberg show.
Gold bullion for immediate delivery fell to $1,317.08 an ounce, according to Bloomberg generic pricing. The metal, which rose to $1,332.33 on July 1, the highest price since March 24, dropped as much as 0.7 percent to $1,311.64 yesterday.
Money managers increased net-long positions for a fourth straight week through July 1 and holdings in exchange-traded products are climbing at the fastest pace since 2012.
China Data
Japan’s Topix gauge fell a second day, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index dropped 0.1 percent and the NZX 50 Index in Wellington lost 0.4 percent.
The Hang Seng Index (HSI) in Hong Kong dropped 0.1 percent and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index of mainland Chinese equities listed in the city was little changed. The Shanghai Composite Index slipped 0.2 percent.
Consumer-price growth in the world’s second-largest economy probably slowed to 2.4 percent in June from 2.5 percent in May, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg before tomorrow’s data. A report July 10 is projected to show export growth accelerated last month and imports expanded after contracting in May, with data on Chinese economic growth due July 16.
Trade Talks
Talks this week between the U.S. and China will include “frank” discussion over theyuan exchange rate and the opening up of the Chinese financial market, Zhu Guangyao, the country’s vice minister for finance, told reporters in Beijing yesterday.
“A nervous peace prevails in the financial markets as central banks sit on their throne, fingers at the ready on the liquidity switch,” Bhanu Baweja, head of emerging-markets cross-asset strategy in London at UBS AG, wrote in a research note. “As they have explicitly targeted risk premia in addition to rates, a lot more hangs on the monarchs of monetary policy today than it has in previous cycles.”
Fed Chair Janet Yellen said July 2 that concerns over financial stability shouldn’t prompt a change in current policy.
The S&P 500 fell 0.4 percent to 1,977.65 in New York from an all-time high, while the Russell 2000 Index of smaller companies tumbled 1.8 percent, the most since April 25. U.S. markets resumed from a three-day weekend after stronger-than-forecast employment data July 3.
FTSE Outlook
After yesterday weakness, the FTSE, Dax and S&P are all at the bottom of their 10 day Raff channels; and we have the 10 day Bianca at 6799. If the bulls are going to avoid a significant drop then they need to bounce it today and break through 6834, as we have the daily pivot at 6835. A break of that level suggests 6850 and 6864 as resistance levels for today.
Support wise, 6817 and 6805 look the near term levels, though there is that Bianca 6799 probably in play on any weakness. Since hotting 6820 then the 10 minute chart has just bumbled along not really doing much, though the 30 minute EMAs are a bit closer for a possible cross shortly.
I think my stance today is brave longs at 6805 to target for 6850 and 6864. It would need a stop at 6794, just below the Bianca channel. If these support levels break then the bears have broken the upside and I don’t expect the FTSE to be reaching 6900+ anytime soon. A lot of the US movement later will be results driven of course as they will be using them as a bellwether for the state of the economy.
Added to my long at 6808
Closed short at 6800
Good one marco.
once again good call marco. do you not think there is slightly more down side?
Dividend not encouraging nowadays
Gone long at 6797
Maximum downside is 6780
17000 too strong 6785 looks like bottom. Added a long at 6787
My stops at 6777
Closed all, bye all
Going to bounce
Looking for a hammer to be formed today which would be a ride up to 6820 AIMHO
lost all gain from last week 🙁 @Marco, MACD EMA all very bearish…are you sure its gona bounce back? @PMS any advice?
Not going lower you saw it bounce off 6780 Dow has dropped 20 points to FTSE 50 this morning and holding at 17000, Isaac this is only my opinion but seems to me we go side ways or up from here. I am long at the moment with stops at 77 if it goes Peter tong.
marco even I m long form 6788. what’s your target? I think 6815!!
thanks mate 🙂
Dimp I might indeed actually bring stops to break even later if it does not go pear shaped and let this run as this could run up to 7000 if luck is on our side.
Oh so you are expecting a big bounce. Ok will do the same. Thanks.
Hurrah, recovered last week’s losses on that bullish bs, got some shorts on the DOW looking for for a decent drop to match the EU indices…
Dimp Not up to 7000 today …!!!
Dow looks to me poised to fall. If it does I doubt whether FTSE will bounce much today.
Dow/1 hr:
http://i1348.photobucket.com/albums/p736/jmca01/WallStreetDFB_zps9d94ce1f.png
I don’t understand why people go long below 200EMA on 10 min chart. I don’t care what predictions are, I am not going long if there’s no long signal. Couldn’t anyone see the higher low formed at 8.20 when it broke the level down? That was a signal for short from 6808 to exit at 6787. Who cares about some bravery? People are losing money. Senu even gone already, so p… off apparently.
It’s now there was a long possibility from the level 16990 (the bottom of yesterday). It seems to be bouncing, so it’s now it’s possible to try longs on FTSE, not before.
ftse 4hr gone oversold territory from overbought territory within 24hours…isnt it too quick? guess there will be some recovery but at the end of the week we may see 6730 level!
Closed my long at break even. not looking very promising.
now that I have closed it. it will bounce up.
Not a bad dimp suspect we might go up to 6800 ish before pulling back to 6780 again with Dow as it drops to 16960, I think then we will get the bounce up …
yes marco FTSE looks like its still in up channel but need to retrace bit more maybe till 6760?
DOW should see a slight reversal, but FTSE/DAX first time in a months that I`ve seen 50/50 short/long positions, all the more reason to short looking as though most of the bears have been wiped out considering it was 70% bears most of the time…
DOW should push the other indices, so looking for more decent shorting opportunities.
Do not know where it’s going, it’s always a mystery. Is why I use small stakes and hold to that without any stops.
I had a 2nd order placed to add at 6785 from yesterday. Deleted for now as I was surprised for this big move down for a 2nd day straight after a big bounce from prices heavy rejected at 6700.
Do not figure out what is going on, but my order at 6830 is still there.
But We are in a big roller coaster now, Senu 😀
My last order is at 6750
6780 is acting as strong resistance.
Still holding my longs
Well that’s my morning gains wiped out….:(
bulls rest in peace (piece)
hi senu n marco, feel sorry for your long loss…i also lost 55pips yesterday n today then i have opened a short position n now i m running +30. as nick mentioned yesterday a move below 6780 would cancel this uptrend for ftse n head to 6600…what is your opinion? i am not a very experienced trader..so asking your suggestions…
Senu you reckon upside broken
I still feel a bounce lead by dow till 17300
I wonder if we are still in for a bounce
may be for that high dividend 1.1 🙂
Long 16942
you did expected 16950 yesterday 🙂
well, if it broke down, it would go down. any other options? why long?
last week , kept shorted and it raised . this week vice versa 🙁
Didn’t expect FTSE to see 6768 🙂
bulls complete surrender or trap?
Whoa big swinging account day, to the downside. Must not close too early if we go higher!
Long @ 6762 (paper trade)
I know I m going against the trend but have gone long for 6762 with minimum stakes.
WHat I tell you about this mad/crazy markets ? In the long run any daytrader is doomed. Like casinos and the brokers, the house always wins
Shit just switched on to see Dow broken closed out at 16927… Think this is it. Bears have taken over
FTSE seriously spooked now — longs don’t appeal right now! 😀
Probably bounce then!
That’s the way of it. 🙂
Seeing now, this sell off makes sense… there was a crowd emotion to take DOW break the 17000. Now that they proved it could be broken, we are in sell off ahead of the earning season. The markets were a bit ahead for high expectations.
It needs to cool off a bit, before the earnings starts.
After that we could see again another push higher, but surely a bit slower, than the last one
FTSE again in negative territory for the year. Less than 6 months to years end
Javed should be happy, who was waiting for the summer sale
Nasdaq, heading to test 4370 (the last resistance before the great upside)
PMS, Today small POMO. dow should close green 😉
Long dow @ 910 (paper trade)
6750 my last order was not triggered for 0.1 + the brokers commision
2 orders placed. One yesterday at 6830 + one today at 6784.
PMS, do you stop for these trades?
do you have stop*
No way
what happen with the manufacturing production in UK ? Why this sudden deep ? It has been more or less steady.
But I see once/twice in a year, values like that.
thank god..regained all loss of the week. still holding short from 6800..think ftse gona retest the 6700 in next few sessions
Pms was Fridays pump for bigs boys to get out ahead of market drop now
It broke the level 16990 at 14.00 as you can see, and the following candle broke out of resistance (by the way nice 50% one) at 14.30. Short entry should have been at the making of the candle at 14.30 with lowest at 16973 with sl 17005 or so. Gutted I went out as I was on the phone all day but needed to pop out. First profits taking sh.h.been at 16930ish and the rest b/e. and final out sh.h.been at 15.44 at 16900-16913ish or hold some positions by wish till 19.00-20.00 unless broken the trend line (the one you are watching really).
I am trying to hindsight these moves as they happen all the time.
But pleased I had some profits yesterday.
Just let it to retrace first and catch the drop to 16850.
Good one Isaac 🙂
thanks 🙂
no spikes for divi also 🙁
She’s broken down to 6500
only two orders placed. The last one was not placed.
That one will be for the reverse daily candle.
Don’t know where will be.
Tomorrow, next week, next month…
Interesting is perhaps not the right word for a market that has done pretty much zilch for 2 and a half months. Bemusing is probably better to describe it…..when you expect it to push through past 6900 it falls and when you expect it go below 6700 it ralies! The last time it was at this level…ot rallied to 6865…..so is this a buying opportunity? I think not….I have been short since the end of April waiting for something to happen. Finally momentum seems to the downside and reporting season will be the trigger. My initial target of 6600 looks good….let’s see…..tomorrow is definitely another day…..in this market.
Gold didn’t raise in line with indices drop. Will have to wait and watch if this is downturn or pull back to go long.
Does anyone agree that the move today does not feel natural at all and another run up to 6800 (if not higher) levels is incoming?
Something does not feel right…
When there’s blood on the streets… Just doubled ftse long. Closer gold short. Dax S&P and Dow longs still running…
I agree with Javed. FTSE does not look very promissing. It trapped a lot of people, including me. After a promissing break to the upside above 6900, last week, in just 2 days, we are again at the lows of 2weeks ago. Absurd but true.
Unless DOW starts to trade above 17000 again soon, I do not see FTSE doing nothing again to the upside.
We just hit 6711 in the afterhours. AMAZING, but not for me…who is frustrated for not holding the order last week after 6797 till 6875 and even more frustrated for buying in levels that now are out of reach and in compliance with what FTSE has done recently.
With a candle like the one today which holds my 2 positions ( one at the top and the other in the middle), I truly regret for not been away just for 2 days.
Now my last order will be placed, when I see some reverse. It can a
take at least 2 daily candles for me to enter.
I hate when I buy in tops of what it seems I done, nevertheless 6830 is just 100 points above Dec31, which is nothing, if UK is in a recovery enconomy.
PMS – Don’t loose confidence. Just go over things and find areas that you can improve upon.
Sell Resistance – Buy Support – Stops in either side. Stop & Reverse.
Don’t ‘over think’ the markets .
Although I haven’t been on here very much lately – I think I mentioned public holidays (e.g. 4th July) skewed markets & this week has been a pretty good example.
Couple of things
“if UK is in a recovery economy” – It’s already happened hasn’t it ? It’s whether it’s sustainable – i would have thought …
“Now my last order will be placed, when I see some reverse”..
– will that be when it reaches 6813 or perhaps 6841 ??
Er ….Buy Low – Sell Higher
Are you trading 5 min charts or 1 hour charts or 4 hour charts ??
My trades in the last two days
Order to go Short 6890 – not filled.
Went Long 6830 – closed out at b/e this morning at 7:30
this morning.
Went Long 6790 – Stopped out / went short 6770.
Should have closed out but would like to see how the
Alcoa earnings are received..
Thanks Hugh !
I use longer term charts 4hr and daily with 1 hour/30m for entries.
About my last order, it possible be in a deeper level than we are today.
DO not know where FTSE will go.
I wouldn’t worry too much PMS….remember it’s time in the market rather than timing the market. Of course for day traders timing is everything……but it is no surprise that 80% if not higher of all traders – professional as well as retail make a loss in the long run.
We will get back to higher than 6830…that much is for sure…..the question of course is when? If you were to push me I would say in the final quarter. However that depends on how much lower we go from here through July.
I will switch my short at the end of July to go for a cheeky and risky long in August. I hate trading in August btw….desks manned by juniors hoping not to make a mistake…very low volumes…means lots of spikey prices due to geopolitics rather than economics.
Javed I think this sept/oct could be tricky as cheap money (QE) will be come to an end. Any thoughts?
Sam I agree. We will see some volatily in Sept onwards as always as the professionals return from their Hols. We are due some kind of correction….not dramatic but greater than 5% but lower than 10% has to be on the cards. September would be the most likely time for that. Generally though the economy is good but prices seem high enough – hence the lethargy in the FTSE for past 2 months. No compulsive reason to buy or to sell.
Anyway how are you doing Sam?
Thanks Javed, am good. I did a school boy mistake few weeks ago 🙁
When ftse touched 6700 and gold didn’t drop a great deal I opened a long position but chose wrong account that closed by short positions from 6840/50/82, well, made profit so can’t complain, happy ending to short positions!
I don’t have much of a choice but to short rallies all the way down to 6600 or less. Probably will go easy until last quarter/xmas.
Markets are looking into next year now not QE. Sure any news will have an initial impact but the talk of interest rate rises in US is the main cause for the jitters here. Alcoa just set a nice floor in the market, earnings will beat generally and we will be back to the grind higher next week. Everyone will expect a pull back (me included) at some point but there is nothing other than rational thinking that suggests this will happen. And the market is not rational. If everyone starts piling short then my ridiculous long positions will be fine! Everyone always says buy the dips on here. We get one here and everyone is talking about the correction. Is this really any different from a week ago when the market took a breather? Helps to build the floor… Get long! (Sitting on a big loss at present?!)