6816,6809 6769 Support, 6836, 6847, 6869 Resistance

Good morning. Well with the US closed yesterday it was pretty slow as generally expected. The 6803 long took on that little dip in the morning and fortunately we just had a slow climb for the rest of the day, and overnight to around 6830 currently. With the bottom of the 10 day Bianca at 6809, and today begin the first day back for the US after the summer period, we will most likely maintain that bull today, BUT the FTSE is nearing resistance at 6847 so maybe a dip and rise day.

Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Asian stocks outside Japan dropped as South Korean manufacturers dragged the gauge lower. The Topix index rallied in Tokyo as the yen weakened before Prime Minister Shinzo Abe announces a new cabinet tomorrow.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Excluding Japan Index dropped 0.6 percent to 509.78 as of 12:33 p.m. in Hong Kong, set for its lowest close since Aug. 18. The Topix rose toward a seven-month high as the yen touched the weakest against the greenback since January. A measure of Asian equities that includes Japan traded yesterday at 13.7 times estimated earnings, after touching this year’s peak of 13.8 times last week.

“Shares are no longer dirt cheap but they’re not expensive either,” Shane Oliver, a Sydney-based global strategist at AMP Capital Investors Ltd., which oversees about $131 billion, said on Bloomberg Television. “The broad environment for shares remains favorable. Valuations look OK and monetary conditions are very easy.”

South Korea’s Kospi index slipped 0.8 percent. Taiwan’s Taiex index decreased 1 percent. New Zealand’s NZX 50 Index slid was little changed. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index dropped 0.6 percent. China’s Shanghai Composite Index and Singapore’s Straits Times Index gained 0.3 percent.

RBA Decision
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index added 0.3 percent. The nation’s central bank maintained borrowing costs at a record-low to support growth and spur hiring in an economy where unemployment is at a 12-year high. The decision was predicted by all 31 economists surveyed by Bloomberg.

Japan’s Topix jumped 1.2 percent, heading for its highest close since Jan. 22. The yen touched 104.87 per dollar. Shares also gained amid speculation Yasuhisa Shiozaki, a politician in favor of pension reform, will be appointed health minister.

“If Shiozaki becomes the health minister, investors will think his appointment will lead to reforms at GPIF and other public pension funds,” said Masashi Akutsu, a strategist at SMBC Nikko Securities Inc. “It’s favorable for the market.”

Ukraine warned of an escalating conflict in its easternmost regions as a rebel leader said talks this week may include negotiations for a truce. The country’s military will take on Russia’s “full-scale invasion,” Defense Minister Valeriy Geletey said on Facebook yesterday, a shift away from the government’s earlier communication that focused on an offensive against insurgents.

Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index added 0.1 percent from their last close on Aug. 29. U.S. financial markets were shut yesterday for a holiday.

FTSE Outlook

FTSE 100 Prediction
FTSE 100 Prediction

For today, we are nearing the initial resistance at 6836 with 6847 after that. I expect that the bull run from the 6803 might stall a little around this area with a dip to the pivot at 6816 before the US drags things up again this afternoon. There is a pretty decent 30 minute rising channel, with resistance at the 6847, and the support at 6805, tallying the bottom of the 10 day Bianca at 6809, and we also have the 20 day Raff there. 10 day Raff isn’t far away either around 6797. Basically, there is some good support at around 6800 still but the bulls will need to break 6847 today. Not too much to say really, long at the pivot and 6810 areas, short at the 6847 area, possibly 6836 initially.

45 Comments

  1. £2pp closed SAX from Friday from a nice £208. Very rarely do I chase 50+ pips but this worked a treat :).

    And S&P as always will deny shorters next stop 2016-2020? Incredible it was 1800, 18 months ago just making new highs for the laughs.

  2. Morning all
    I have had time to analyse the “opposite trading strategy” that Nick was talking about and i tried on Friday (I will use abbrev NOTS). At best it looks like a 50 :50 chance. However the stadgegy comes into its own when there is an emotional reason also involved in the analysis decision. Here the success rate rises dramatically. Right now i see market heading to 6820 area But i also placed a trade ayt 6815 yesterday. So is it this that is clouding my analysis decision to say down ?? for now i will sit still and see how it plays out. But the NOTS trade is a long trade. Will keep u posted

    1. He was only kidding, mate 🙂 Don’t take it so literally. When he said do the opposite to what you are thinking – this is when you don’t really know what you are doing. It’s just a feeling that sometimes you see in hindsight that you should have done the opposite. But in reality I wouldn’t rely on this strategy.

  5. I’m short at 46 and 41 (silly I know but it’s the method I use for day trading)
    I’m also short on Dow @ 17135

  8. THe early morning euphoria coming from holidays ?
    THere is a statistic, that US markets rally after labor day

  9. US will undoubtedly rally, I’m short hoping to get a decent drop before 1:00 when all the buying starts…

    1. Perfect…….ftse playing to your tunes(prediction)!!
      Closed shorts from 47 and 30 at 20 – nice profit.

  23. long at 17065,should see a good rally into the evening. =)

    Lol hindsight sucks, could have booked some but i`ll wait.

    1. sorry. It not broke… yet. Left another pin, but hold. Wait and see. FTSE is always driven by US in the dips.
      SPX might go for the 2050 mark (162,8 from the break resistance). This might put FTSE at all-time highs, but then will crash heavily if SPX sells for profit taking

  25. Now my analysis is saying we are going higher. I have decided to try the NOTS trade on this. Normal trade amount Short at 6828. hope this works put

  27. Although I analysed this Opposite Trading Stratedgy, I have not been able to work out targets. The only thimg is to set the same amount as i have calculated on my long anaysis and reverse this amount for the NOTS trade. Based on this O had a target of 6870 — about 40 pips. So the equivalent Short target is 6790. Hope thos succeds

  28. Not sure on how yo place a stop. Weekend analysis says keep the stop a few pips away from the analysis target. This is 40 pips away. For me this is too much ony normal trade amount so will just watch and take it as it comes. But having doubts ? not sure this was a good idea

    1. This is a random success, Rental, I wouldn’t rely on this. I would be scared to carry out the trade based on your reasoning. If it’s going down and you was thinking it was going up, but you still placed the trade down it only means that you DON’T UNDERSTAND why it goes down and entered the trade by luck.
      You need to learn to understand WHY you entered the trade down.
      And if you still see it’s going up so you should have placed the trade up (which is a normal action for human being) so you will have a losing trade and will start thinking why it didn’t go as you thought.

  29. Incredible, everyone calling it long and Dow takes a tumble. Do those traders back from vacation think the Dow is toppy?

    Thursday holds a raft of data so are these just nerves or money coming off table after good data today and more pressure on int rate rise?

    Market doing a good job of performing the unexpected this afternoon.

  31. Got hammered today using short stops… was +300 closed all positions down -180.
    I can’t trade chasing positions, I’ll fight another day…

  32. The “NOTS” trade seems to be working. Had me worried though. Still not sure how to place my stop. Will learn with time. I am still hoping for 6790 as my target as stated above. I will keep updating and hope to get advise from anybody. So far so good.

    1. “Still not sure how to place my stop”. I think you should start from there.
      I normally place a stop at the top of the previous high or low, or ever at the top of the last high or low.
      Some people place at parabolic, some – above/below levels, some – above/below fibs, at the end of candles, just certain amount of pips, etc. etc. etc.

Comments are closed.