Good morning. Well that worked out yesterday with the dip to the pivot at 6810 and then the bounce. However, the bounce was a bit weak – i was hoping to 6854, but it stalled at 6830, around the the coral line on the 30 minute chart. The situation in Thailand escalated a bit yesterday with martial law leading to curfews as there was yet another coup. The situation in Ukraine continues with 16 killed at a road block yesterday.That said, i think if the 6810 level continues to hold then we should see a bit of bullishness today.
Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Asian stocks rose, with the regional index set for the first back-to-back weekly gain in two months, on signs of growth in the world’s largest economies. Palladium retreated from a 33-month high, while Thailand’s baht advanced, regaining some of yesterday’s losses following a military coup.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index added 0.6 percent by 12:48 p.m. in Tokyo, bringing its weekly gain to 1 percent. Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (SPX) were little changed after the gauge rose 0.2 percent in New York. The euro headed for a third week of losses, while the baht strengthened 0.3 percent. Palladium fell for the first time in six days and platinum slid 0.3 percent. Credit risk in Asia declined for a third day.
The U.S. reports new home sales today after yesterday following China with better-than-estimated manufacturing data, while German business confidence due today is forecast to fall. Thailand’s army staged its 12th coup in eight decades as the army chief said he was seizing control to restore peace. In Ukraine, 16 soldiers were killed in an attack by pro-Russian insurgents, before the presidential election this weekend.
“Most people view that the U.S. will be the growth engine of the world this year,” Chris Weston, chief market strategist at IG Markets Ltd. in Melbourne, said by phone. “If you look at everything on an adjusted basis, the equity market probably continues to be the most compelling place to be in at the moment.”
Thailand Coup
Thailand’s baht strengthened to within 0.2 percent of the level it was trading at before yesterday’s announcement of a military coup. The currency gained as much as 0.43 percent to 32.46 per dollar in Bangkok, having been at 32.40 immediately prior to the takeover by the army.
“The baht has held up pretty well,” said Sanjay Mathur, head of research and strategy for Asiaexcluding Japan at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc in Singapore. “The fact that its broader fundamentals are in shape has obviously helped the baht, but I think the biggest issue for Thailand right now is they need to revive growth.”
Ukraine Poll
Platinum slid to $1,486.25 an ounce after climbing to $1,496.38 yesterday, the highest level since September. Palladium retreated to $834.25 an ounce after reaching $839 yesterday, the highest price since August 2011, on concern that supplies may be disrupted from Russia and South Africa, the largest producers. An 18-week pay strike at the world’s biggest platinum producers in South Africa has crippled output.
The pro-Russia insurgency in Ukraine, which has been racked by instability since the nation’s president was ousted in February, is intensifying, even after Russian President Vladimir Putin said he would ease the path for the May 25 presidential vote by pulling back his troops.
FTSE Outlook
Looking at the 30minute chart we are just starting to get the EMA cross over and if yesterdays low at 6810 holds (good news coming for anyone still holding that from yesterday) then I think we will see some more upside today. A test of the top of the 10 day Bianca channel at 6865 would be ideal. Today’s pivot level is 6825 so bulls will need to break above that asap, otherwise a slip below 6810 will lead to the next support at 6779 which is the bottom of the 10 day Bianca channel.
Movement above the pivot at 6825 should lead to 6846 initially, then 6858/6865 area providing stronger resistance. There is an outside chance of resistance at 6875 being hit. As I mentioned support is 6810 then 6782. I am therefore thinking another long at this same level but with a fairly tight stop as if it breaks it will drop that 30 points, though 6782 might be worth small risky long as well, though I haven’t put that on the trade plan.
Still holding belly, stop @ 15
Today is Friday, only min stake. Are u in any trade?
Just took my stop and came down 🙁
I’m in a long at the moment but I entered it slightly too late so I’m just sort of bouncing between PNL
And I just missed the peak while I was writing that last message
belly, do u also trade dow?
I have seen many times, that if Nick’s major support mentioned above is gone, then FTSE will stay lower most of the time. Lets c today.
I haven’t traded dow as yet. I have been looking at it though.
His chart does say down till around 10 is then up from there. Numbers may be out but pattern is looking strong at the mo
Ignore the time in relation too the arrows, i just draw them for direction. but yes, did go to the bottom of that 30min channel instead at 6795
Cheers Nick. So do you see the pattern holding?
I’m actually going to buy your book when I get home tonight. Looking forward to it. I’m hoping it will actually help me understand charts a bit better
Do we think this is going to keep grinding down or reverse?
Short @ 6808
Just seems to be stalling at 04
/03
I’m on the sidelines at the moment. Waiting for the right entry
Senu, are you still short?
Yes
Seni short ftse to wat level? 6780???
Yes, but not very sure. 🙁
Today housing data @ 3
lol… out of shorts .. very boring
Not much happening at all today.
Short @ 6809
is it double top here ?
Hashmash, ahwab, any updates?
Are you still holding short Senu? I went short at 07 but it seems to have flattened out now
just booked @ 6800, to keep free when dow opens
Short @ 6810 (bit risky)
Out @ cost, housing data has come good
Is it just me or does the FTSE look weak?
Am still short and will hold now for the weekend.
Gl
Hi Havies, what is your view on dow for today?
Hi Senu,
I think the DOW still have some legs for a move up, but will soon drop again, maybe next week Monday or so. The FTSE however is not following that great, which works in my favour 🙂
But you were stopped out on couple of days back. What level is ur short now?
Lol, yes I was stopped out, but that was on a larger than normal trade. I still have my regular positions open, all in nice profit, average position about 6840.
Oh. Ok. GL mate 🙂
S&P 500 blazing a trail back to 1900 very likely. DAX quite bullish too, FTSE in the doldrums.
S&P 500: http://i1348.photobucket.com/albums/p736/jmca01/US500DFB_zpsd8c84ee5.png
Hi guys,
I’m out of SPX and resting for weekend.
That 50 ma is starting a new positive slope.
Looking now again to FTSE, next week.
It looks cheaper, but who knows.
Lol Havies. After ur comment, FTSE started moving up 🙂
There’s that 1630 dip again
Is the Dow still on its way up?
test comment
A light drop in SPX for a move to 1940 ?
FTSE is quite weak and DOW follows.
SPX is the best performer in last week .
Things may change and FTSE/DOW catching up with SPX reversing a bit
This is interesting – even the FTSE is stirring itself – for another assault on 6900 is my best guess at the moment.